why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ben-Shitrit: Redefine Meat will reach profitability in two years
“So it's not 10 years, it's two years from now.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Neurable will launch a silent, thought-controlled device interface by 2025
“So, you know, it's not like a vision video of a hundred years from now. At least V-one is going to be available within the next two years.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
BETA plans to operate commercially in the United States by 2025
“And yes, by 20, 25, they're doing commercial operations here in the U S and then we just basically build them as fast as we can.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Aurora expects fully driverless freight operations by late 2024 starting in Texas
“And so, yes, our expectation is by the end of next year, there will be no human. Yeah. And, you know, the way we're going to launch this is initially it'll be on one lane, Which is what you call kind of a trucking route, and that'll be between Dallas and Houst…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Universal Hydrogen expects to retrofit half the target fleet by early 2030s
“We would expect to be able to get through at least half that fleet by the early 20 thirties.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Zimmer predicted in 2017 that AVs would soon handle half of rides
“What's real is that over the next couple years, it'll be able to do A few percent of our trips, 10% of our trips, 50% of our trips.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Eremenko: Universal Hydrogen will fly first retrofit ATR by 2025
“Yes, we are. The long lead item for that is FAA certification, and we have been quite conscientious about bringing the FAA on the journey with us, right? Making sure that we don't just design it and throw it over the wall and say, please certify this, right?”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Quaise will start field drilling in 2024, repower plant by 2028
“So, twenty-twenty-four is what we say we're going to do, and after that, you start the journey towards repairing a power plant, and that takes us the better part of the rest of the decade. So, twenty-twenty-seven, 28 is when we intend to repair the first power…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Baird: NYC will get most electricity from Quebec hydro by 2023
“What we do have in New York City is we get most of our electricity, or will next year, from a hydroelectric project in Quebec. Oh. And so there's this giant dam in Quebec that spins a bunch of turbines, and Produces clean electricity and sends that electricity…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Marshall: Planet projects over 40% annual growth and profitability within two years
“So we have very clear line of sight now on a growth path, you know, going just over 40% a year for the next five years we project. And that gets us to profitability in the next couple of years.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Abuzeid: US will be 1 million nurses short by 2024
“Like by 20, 24, we're going to be one million nurses short. And that shortage just keeps getting worse and worse.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Hyman: Retail will not return to majority offline purchases
“I don't think that we're going back into a world where the majority of what we buy is done offline.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Zimmer predicted autonomous cars would gradually handle a growing percentage of rides
“An autonomous car is not going to drop out of the sky and be able to do a hundred percent of our trips. That's not real. What's real is that over the next couple years, it'll be able to do A few percent of our trips, 10% of our trips, 50% of our trips.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lore: Wonder expects to partner with 30 restaurant chains by July 2023
“So by next summer, by July, we'll have 30 restaurant chains, which we believe is, is around the right number.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Cuban: Cost Plus Drugs will offer 2,000 medications by year-end
“And by the end of the year, we'll be up to 2000.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Weiss: Global Beauty Market Will Reach $750B in Six Years
“Beauty is a huge industry. It's a four hundred and fifty billion dollar global market. It's going to be seven hundred and fifty billion in six years.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Stein: Betterment expected $18B to $20B in AUM by late 2018
“Yeah, we expect to be in the ballpark of 18 to twenty billion by the end of 2018.”