The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ben-Shitrit: Redefine Meat will reach profitability in two years
“So it's not 10 years, it's two years from now.”
Eshchar Ben-Shitrit Sep 28, 2023 ▶ 36:13 When your dinner is printed with Eshchar Ben-Shitrit of Redefine Meat
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Neurable will launch a silent, thought-controlled device interface by 2025
“So, you know, it's not like a vision video of a hundred years from now. At least V-one is going to be available within the next two years.”
Ramses Alcaide Aug 31, 2023 ▶ 25:25 When your headphones listen to you with Ramses Alcaide of Neurable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
BETA plans to operate commercially in the United States by 2025
“And yes, by 20, 25, they're doing commercial operations here in the U S and then we just basically build them as fast as we can.”
Kyle Clark Aug 24, 2023 ▶ 34:51 Electrifying aviation with Kyle Clark of BETA Technologies
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Aurora expects fully driverless freight operations by late 2024 starting in Texas
“And so, yes, our expectation is by the end of next year, there will be no human. Yeah. And, you know, the way we're going to launch this is initially it'll be on one lane, Which is what you call kind of a trucking route, and that'll be between Dallas and Houst…”
Chris Urmson Jul 20, 2023 ▶ 33:17 When trucks drive themselves with Chris Urmson of Aurora
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Universal Hydrogen expects to retrofit half the target fleet by early 2030s
“We would expect to be able to get through at least half that fleet by the early 20 thirties.”
Paul Eremenko Oct 20, 2022 ▶ 24:17 HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Zimmer predicted in 2017 that AVs would soon handle half of rides
“What's real is that over the next couple years, it'll be able to do A few percent of our trips, 10% of our trips, 50% of our trips.”
John Zimmer Jun 25, 2018 ▶ 32:47 Lyft: John Zimmer (2017)
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Eremenko: Universal Hydrogen will fly first retrofit ATR by 2025
“Yes, we are. The long lead item for that is FAA certification, and we have been quite conscientious about bringing the FAA on the journey with us, right? Making sure that we don't just design it and throw it over the wall and say, please certify this, right?”
Paul Eremenko Oct 20, 2022 ▶ 30:49 HIBT Lab! Universal Hydrogen: Paul Eremenko
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Quaise will start field drilling in 2024, repower plant by 2028
“So, twenty-twenty-four is what we say we're going to do, and after that, you start the journey towards repairing a power plant, and that takes us the better part of the rest of the decade. So, twenty-twenty-seven, 28 is when we intend to repair the first power…”
Carlos Araque Aug 4, 2022 ▶ 28:51 HIBT Lab! Quaise Energy: Carlos Araque
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Baird: NYC will get most electricity from Quebec hydro by 2023
“What we do have in New York City is we get most of our electricity, or will next year, from a hydroelectric project in Quebec. Oh. And so there's this giant dam in Quebec that spins a bunch of turbines, and Produces clean electricity and sends that electricity…”
Donnel Baird Jul 7, 2022 ▶ 20:05 HIBT Lab! BlocPower: Donnel Baird
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Marshall: Planet projects over 40% annual growth and profitability within two years
“So we have very clear line of sight now on a growth path, you know, going just over 40% a year for the next five years we project. And that gets us to profitability in the next couple of years.”
Will Marshall Dec 13, 2021 ▶ 55:12 Planet: Will Marshall and Robbie Schingler
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Abuzeid: US will be 1 million nurses short by 2024
“Like by 20, 24, we're going to be one million nurses short. And that shortage just keeps getting worse and worse.”
Dr. Iman Abuzeid Nov 25, 2020 ▶ 2:35 How I Built Resilience: Dr. Iman Abuzeid of Incredible Health
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Hyman: Retail will not return to majority offline purchases
“I don't think that we're going back into a world where the majority of what we buy is done offline.”
Jenn Hyman Jun 4, 2020 ▶ 5:43 How I Built Resilience: Live with Jenn Hyman
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Zimmer predicted autonomous cars would gradually handle a growing percentage of rides
“An autonomous car is not going to drop out of the sky and be able to do a hundred percent of our trips. That's not real. What's real is that over the next couple years, it'll be able to do A few percent of our trips, 10% of our trips, 50% of our trips.”
John Zimmer Feb 13, 2017 ▶ 31:39 Lyft: John Zimmer
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lore: Wonder expects to partner with 30 restaurant chains by July 2023
“So by next summer, by July, we'll have 30 restaurant chains, which we believe is, is around the right number.”
Marc Lore Sep 22, 2022 ▶ 27:43 HIBT Lab! Wonder: Marc Lore
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Cuban: Cost Plus Drugs will offer 2,000 medications by year-end
“And by the end of the year, we'll be up to 2000.”
Mark Cuban Jun 16, 2022 ▶ 11:32 HIBT Lab! Mark Cuban Cost Plus Drug Company: Mark Cuban
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Weiss: Global Beauty Market Will Reach $750B in Six Years
“Beauty is a huge industry. It's a four hundred and fifty billion dollar global market. It's going to be seven hundred and fifty billion in six years.”
Emily Weiss Nov 26, 2018 ▶ 25:25 Live Episode! Glossier: Emily Weiss
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Stein: Betterment expected $18B to $20B in AUM by late 2018
“Yeah, we expect to be in the ballpark of 18 to twenty billion by the end of 2018.”
Jon Stein Oct 29, 2018 ▶ 37:02 Betterment: Jon Stein
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