The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 59 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 59 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Needham: CFS will demonstrate commercial net energy gain by 2027
“We're building a plant just about an hour west of here that in 2027 will show net energy gain in a commercially relevant architecture.”
Dutta: Harbinger will reach ICE cost parity without subsidies by 2026
“And Harbinger by next year will be at cost parity with ICE trucks without any tax credits.”
Needham: First commercial CFS fusion plant will launch in early 2030s
“Early 20 thirties. That means probably within a few, not 2030, but probably within a few years of 2030.”
Shah: Trump's DOE will honor all closed and obligated LPO loans
“But like, for closed loans and loans that have obligated funds, I think they'll honor all those loans.”
Shah: Annual electricity load growth will likely be around 2.5%, not 7%
“I don't think we're going to have seven percent load growth every year. I think it's probably more like two and a half percent, but it's still something that we don't have the tools to deal with right now.”
Orthofer: Max 30% of abatement needs commercially viable by late 2030s
“Despite sort of huge cost down historically and projected, we will not get to more than 20 or 30% of all abatement needs being sort of fully in the money or fully sort of commercially mature by the end of the 20 thirties, which I guess is a rather, was for me …”
Orthofer: Green hydrogen cost parity delayed 5 to 8 years past 2030
“If I look back at our forecast from 20 20, for when we would achieve cost parity between green hydrogen and grey hydrogen, we said this would be by the end of this decade. I think by now we've moved that out by five to eight years, depending on geography, just…”
Belizaire: Batch computing will quickly consume more energy than real-time compute
“If you look at the whole pie of the types of compute that's out there the batchable portion is growing faster than the rest, and it's become, it will quickly become a larger portion of the over, overall pie, and it will quickly have more energy demands than th…”
O'Donnell: Intermittent renewable power will economically eclipse fossil fuels globally by 2030
“By 20 30 in most of the industrialized world, the conditions that exist in the six European countries where we're developing projects now in Australia and the half dozen US states, those market conditions exist in most of the industrialized world that you can …”
Cotton: Recycled lithium content will reach 80% to 90% in decades
“More and more recycling infrastructure gets built. We get closer and closer and migrate from that less than one percent to 80 to 90%, just like what lead has shown us. And it's really only a couple decades of recycling, so it'll happen fairly quickly.”
Kra: Commercial grid fusion will not arrive before 2035 to 2040
“In twenty-thirty-five and twenty-forty, we're probably going to see some there in that range. We might see a first commercial reactor producing electrons onto the grid, but I think before that, it's all going to be, if we do well, it's going to be pilots and d…”
Davis: Solar will make up 40% of US generating capacity by 2050
“According to our outlooks, by twenty-fifty, 40% of the generating capacity, just like electricity generating capacity in, in the U.S. Will be solar.”
Green hydrogen will become cheaper than blue hydrogen by 2030
“If we scaled it up to potentially hundreds of gigawatts by the end of the decade and going further, we expect the cost of that equipment to decline by 50, 60, or 70% or so, which really drives cost reductions of Green or renewable hydrogen below the cost of pr…”
Hydrogen electrolyzers could consume one-third of global power by 2050
“By twenty-fifty, under a net zero scenario, electrolyzers producing hydrogen take up a third of all electricity demand almost, just to power power themselves to produce hydrogen. So all of global, a third of all global electricity demand.”
Naam: Solar electricity costs will drop 4x by reaching one-third global generation
“So my personal forecast is the cost of solar electricity will drop by another factor of four. By the time electricity is, by the time solar is about a third of all electricity generation on Earth.”
Naam: IRA spending will reach trillions due to uncapped subsidies
“It's not four and fifty billion dollars of federal spending a year. It's like trillions. Because the IRA is not a pool of money. It's a per unit subsidy. And forecasters always do what? On unit forecasts, they always underestimate it, right? So the actual size…”
Naam: Total fossil fuel use and emissions will peak by 2030
“And I think we'll have peak total fossil fuels and peak emissions sometime later in this decade, ah, towards 2030.”
Morris: Edge assets will reach 30-50% of grid capacity within 10 years
“And if you look at all of those assets, so all of these small scale assets, Those are really going to be the future of how we balance the grid in the next 10 years. They're going to account for anywhere between, like, 30 and 50% of total system capacity.”
Shah: US will produce 10 million tons of clean hydrogen by 2030
“So I believe that by 2030, we will have ten million tons of clean hydrogen in this country.”
Panama Bartholomy: California Will Ban Gas Appliances Within Seven Years
“California's gonna be banning this stuff in seven years, so start the transition now when there's a lot of money and incentives going.”
Atwood: Green hydrogen could be the cheapest steelmaking method by 2050
“The simplest way to put it is that we think by twenty-fifty, making steel with hydrogen could be the cheapest way to do it.”
Kimber: Five clean energy sectors will become multi-hundred-billion industries
“So, you know, those five industries are what we've identified as, you know, the areas where we think there is inevitable growth in the sort of hundreds of billions of dollars. These are industries that could easily be some of the largest industries that our pl…”
Kimber: Direct air capture costs will drop to $100-$200 per ton
“There are plenty of them out there at industrial scales that will definitely get down into the, you know, 102 hundred dollar, you know, a ton kind of level, at which point capture becomes your backstop technology, if you will, and it will set the price point a…”
Pinkowski: Hormuz closure will push 45M more people into food insecurity
“And because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it is estimated that over the next year, an additional forty-five million more people around the world are going to go into food insecurity.”
US federal ban on cloud seeding is highly unlikely
“I think that a blanket federal mandate to ban cloud seeding or weather mod is highly unlikely.”
Boston Metal aims to unlock commercial steel applications by 2029
“If you know, if we don't find non-dilutive funds earlier, that cell will be running in twenty-twenty-eight, which will then unlock the commercial application of the technology for steel in 29, twenty-thirty.”
Needham: SPARC reactor targets 100MW thermal power with 10x energy gain
“That'll produce about a hundred megawatts of thermal power. So a lot like 500 to a thousand times what the national ignition facility did, like a substantial amount of power. And his design point is actually a gain of like 10, so 10 times, actually it's 11 mor…”
Palmer: Terawatt Will Require Multiple Billion-Dollar Raises to Build EV Network
“The billion dollars is not gonna last that long to build that many assets, and so it was really the vision from the beginning that this is not just a small-scale effort, it's going to be something that requires significant capital, and they'll have to be multi…”
Hamilton: Supreme Court precedent will compel disbursement of obligated IRA funds
“I do think that the funds that are obligated will be dispersed. I'm like, I just don't think that they can legally. The Supreme Court, I don't think, will allow that to happen, so I consider that, like, a lower risk for the funds that have been obligated.”
Shah: Over 200 GW of U.S. coal will retire within 15 years
“We're, you know, going to be taking offline over 200 gigawatts of coal over the next, you know, 15 years, just mainly because it's at the end of life.”
Hurlbut: US will definitely miss 2030 climate goals under Trump
“You know, the executive power that Trump would have if he was president, we would definitely not be hitting those goals because he would affect the executive branch in a major way.”
Cotton: Global Battery Recycling Market Will Reach $25 Billion by 2030
“And if you look at the global lithium battery recycling market, it's already today roughly a five billion dollar industry, And we expect it to grow by about five-fold just in the coming few years to the end of the decade to nearly twenty-five billion dollars.”
EV adoption will heavily shift grid cost-to-serve to local distribution
“There's two hundred eighty million cars in the country. There's a hundred and twenty million households. We designed a century old grid around those hundred twenty million households, and now as all these cars start going electric, there's just going to be a t…”
US industrial emissions will surpass power and transport by 2035
“The industrial sector is set to overtake power generation and transportation as the biggest source of planet warming emissions in the U.S. By twenty-thirty-five.”
Naam: Global meat consumption will not decrease and will keep rising
“Like, forget about reducing meat consumption. It ain't going to happen. Meat consumption is going to keep going like this and this.”
Brad Smith: Microsoft will remove all historical carbon emissions by 2050
“By 20 50, we will remove from the environment all of the carbon we have emitted directly or by electrical consumptions since our company's founding in 1975.”
Atwood: Global steel production will peak around 3 billion tons by 2050
“We make about two billion tons of steel today, every year. We think by twenty-fifty that's going to peak and level out at about three billion tons.”
Hamilton: IRA will reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40% below 2005 levels by 2030
“So it will, based on all the analysis, drop greenhouse gas 40% below 2005 levels by 2030.”
Paruri: Tandem PV expects to reach 35% to 36% solar efficiency in medium term
“Our team believes that we'll be at 35, 36% efficiency in the medium term and there's so much more room to grow.”
Paruri: US silicon solar panels will max out at 25% efficiency
“So your average silicon panel here in the U.S. Is 23% efficient. It'll probably get to 25% in the next couple years, and that's it. Like, that's the max that a silicon solar panel will go.”
Captura targets 2028 for its first operational commercial plant
“So, we're targeting twenty-twenty-eight to be in operation with our first commercial plant.”
Needham: Italy, Germany, Japan, and Canada will harmonize fusion regulations
“Italy, Germany, Japan, Canada are all on track to do this.”
Jewett: Fervo will deliver 100MW by 2026 and 400MW by 2028
“The first hundred megawatts will be delivered by twenty-twenty-six, and the remaining 400 megawatts will be delivered by twenty-twenty-eight.”
Dan Shugar predicts energy storage duration will hit six hours soon
“We've seen energy storage, you know, go from one hours to two hours to four hours. You know, are we going to be six hours in a few years? Probably.”
Cotton: 10 Million Tons of Battery Scrap and Dead Cells Available by 2030
“And you know, from now until the end of the decade we think there's an estimated ten million tons or so of combined scrap material and end of life batteries that are really going to be ready to be recycled.”
Ramanathan: Global warming is very likely to exceed the 1.5°C threshold
“We're not on track to keep average temperature 1.5 degrees Celsius below pre-industrial levels. That's the threshold that we've been talking about for a long time, and we're very likely to exceed it perhaps, you know, perhaps by a lot.”