The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 157 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Langley: Flock lost a Mexican deal to Hikvision after pricing 10x higher
“So we pursued one really big deal last year in Mexico. We had support from one of our investors, like we should go after cigar and great. And they had connections to the Mexican government. And so we got all the way to the finish line, and it was us versus Hik…”
Collison: Stripe is building Tempo for scalable AI agent crypto payments
“The second, and this is where Tempo, our new initiative, That you guys were nice enough to work with us on is coming in is very scalable crypto payments, and obviously agents is what we have in mind as we're developing Tempo, where, you know, if you want to pa…”
ElevenLabs bets research on cascaded voice architecture over speech-to-speech
“So today we are optimizing heavily on a cascaded approach... So that's like where we are betting a lot of the research work of how you can make that great, and we think we can make that great.”
Pichai: Google held back LaMDA due to lack of RLHF and toxicity
“In fact, in the Google I.O. In, in 22, We launched something called AI Test Kitchen, and that was Lambda, but we had constrained it because internally we didn't have an end-to-end version which was RLHFed, right? So the version I saw was a lot more you know, t…”
Lopes Lara: Kalshi will never list war, terrorism, or assassination markets
“There are a lot of things that we wouldn't do, like wildfires we don't do, war, terrorism, assassination. Those things are bad, and like, there's a moral side of these markets, and we're not going to ever go there.”
Flock Safety avoids facial recognition due to controversy
“We don't do facial recognition for that reason, because it's too controversial, but that's, it's counterintuitive to me when the technology gets better every day.”
Flock Built AI Agent to Flag Vehicles Following Armored Cars
“So we built an agent that tracks armored cars. And so, at all times, it is literally saying, okay, here's our truck. If we ever see other vehicles tracking this car, flag them automatically.”
Glyman: Ramp customer support agents ship code to production
“We have customer support agents like shipping code to production too.”
DeWahl: Antares is not using DARPA because micro-reactors lack fundamental technical novelty
“We are not working with DARPA mostly because it's actually not as technically risky as you might even think, like even. ... Like we actually, in a funny way, like it's not even really a tech problem. ... You know, I mean, it's hard to build these things, but i…”
Ricks: Lilly is considering SaaS-style recurring pricing for common gene therapies
“It's conceivable that one could create like a licensing concept, stealing from the SAS model, where you say, we'll do the procedure for free. And as long as it's working for you will deposit X amount in our bank account, and you're getting the value, and we're…”
Sundheim: D1 Capital does not use derivatives due to timeframe risk
“I don't use, I really don't use derivatives at all. The problem with derivatives is like, look, At the end of the day, when you break down, what is a derivative? It's just leverage and implied volatility. Like, if I want leverage, I can go, you know, get lever…”
Snap will launch Spectacles to consumers later this year
“Which is that specs are coming to consumers for the first time later this year. So after 12 years of investment in glasses and the next generation of computing and trying to make computing more human, it's actually coming.”
Over two-thirds of new code at Snap is written by AI
“Now more than two-thirds of, you know, new code is written You know, by AI at Snap.”
Evan Spiegel fought hard for years to kill Snapchat streaks
“Streaks are one. Like, I did not like the idea of streaks, did not want to do it. I actually fought very hard to Killstreaks over the years. We've always been anti-metric at Snap.”
Snap builds the most sensitive Spectacles components in the US and UK
“We build,
You know, some of the most important components for specs in the U S and in the UK. So we've really thought about building some of the most IP sensitive components, some of the most sophisticated components in the U S and the UK, where we can sit th…”
Staniszewski: ElevenLabs founders and leaders manage over 15 direct reports each
“Both me and my co-founder will have over 15 direct reports each that, that we'll work with, and most of those people will have that same scale of direct reports.”
Pichai: Google Is AI Supply Constrained Amid Broad Demand
“To be very clear, you know, we are supply constrained. We are seeing the demand across all the surface areas.”
Pichai: Google is exploring deploying data centers in space
“We're in the earliest stages of thinking about data centers in space right, but to your earlier discussion on constraint inspires creativity.”
Dolgov: Waymo distills driver, simulator, and critic from one foundation model
“The way we think about the, you know, building the Waymo driver it starts with a large off-board foundation model. I can imagine, you know, building a big model that understands how the physical world works and understands the, Important properties of what it …”
Dolgov: Waymo augments end-to-end models with structured world representations
“So this is where augmenting that learned representation, those learned embeddings from the encoder decoder with that, you know, more, you know, structured representation is what we do, and we find that this kind of gives us additional knobs to simulate, you kn…”
Waymo plans to start operating in London and Tokyo in 2026
“You know, we are planning to start operating in London and in Tokyo this year.”
Lopes Lara: Kalshi is developing derivatives for luxury watches and collectibles
“One thing that we're very excited for, we're actually starting to go in the direction of, for example, things like watches and bags and all of those things are like more going to the collectible side. They're actually able to do derivatives on those things.”
Lopes Lara: Kalshi plans to add futures, swaps, and options
“Right now we only have the binary yes, no. We want to have things like futures, like swaps, options, all of that.”
Taylor: Sierra reached $100M ARR in seven quarters, now around $165M
“We reached a hundred million dollars in ARR in seven quarters, a 150 in eight quarters. We're, I think, around one 65 now, one month into our you know, next quarter or so.”
Taylor: Sierra uses outcome-based pricing, charging only for fully resolved cases
“So, we do outcomes-based pricing. So, for a customer service context, that means if the AI agent resolves the case, no human intervention there's a pre-negotiated sort of rate for that, and if we do have to escalate to a person, it's free. For sales, it would …”
Langley: Flock Scaled First $20M–$40M ARR Solely Through Local TV News
“We might be the only company that for the first, let's call it, 20 or 30, forty million of ARR, strictly driven off of five o'clock news. That was our only growth channel.”
Langley: Flock covers over 6,000 cities and 50% of US population
“Yeah, so it's just over 6000 cities. So it's like well north of 50% of America that's covered by Flock.”
Langley: Flock is deployed in every major US city except Manhattan
“So there's about 17,000 cities in the U.S., and we have all the big ones outside of Manhattan at this point.”
Langley: Flock Safety reached $500M in ARR in seven years
“And then, you know, the business has gone from zero to, you know, about five hundred million in ARR in the last seven years, building cameras, drones, and selling it to the government, which is like three strikes are out.”
Pope: MatX combines SRAM and HBM for cheap, low-latency AI chips
“It is actually possible to do both in the same chip. You, it's kind of an obvious thing. You say you take the HPM, you take the SRAM, put them together in the same chip, you put the weights in SRAM, and you put the all of the inference data in HPM. That is wha…”
Pope: MatX splits large systolic arrays without sacrificing efficiency
“Take a really large systolic array, but have a way to split it up into pieces without losing efficiency. So sort of that is the core of the design for us.”
DeWahl: Antares will pursue DOD licensing before approaching the NRC
“The Army is now also able to license its own reactors alongside the Navy, which already does. So that will absolutely be our first stop. The NRC really only license sorry, regulates civilian electricity, so civilian power. So we actually don't need to even go …”
DeWahl: Antares pays national labs hundreds of thousands to prep testing
“You know, we spend a lot of money paying the national labs to do things like clear out a pit so that we can test our reactor, and it's like, we're paying for that, and they're like, you know, here's hundreds of thousand dollars, here's the bill.”
Nadella: Microsoft's AI layers must succeed on their own independent merits
“We have an infra business, we have an app server business, and we have an apps business. Just simplifying. I want those three things to stand for them, their own, on their own merits. We ourselves, of course, want to have the feedback loop across these three l…”
Ricks: Eli Lilly is building pharma's largest biological supercomputer
“Building a supercomputer on our, on-prem for us, really just to run proprietary drug discovery models. We think it's the biggest biologically focused supercomputer there is. And certainly the biggest pharma's done. Yes. With B 300 latest chipset.”
SpaceX uses Bridge to repatriate Starlink revenue via stablecoins, says Abrams
“SpaceX came to us, they're selling Starlink all over the world. And so as a result, they're collecting local, so people are paying for Starlink and, you know, dozens, many dozens of different countries with their cards. So they're getting local currencies in a…”
Privy required the ability to support Stripe's competitors during M&A talks
“And this was a part of the conversations that we had at Privy when talking to Stripe about M&A, which was like, what are conditions under which we think we can be successful here? And I think one of them was the need to be able to work with competitive endeavo…”
Handmer: Terraform Is Building Machines to Make Natural Gas from Solar
“Terraform is building a machine that connects to Standard quantitized solar array and produces natural gas.”
Sundheim: D1 usually buys public stocks before finishing investment memos
“We're having to get to the memo stage, and usually we start buying it before, because in the public markets, you know, if you have a good idea, you could take a month and a half to, like, write a memo, but by that time, the price may have moved. So usually we …”
Sundheim: D1 Capital avoids hiring portfolio managers or public equity veterans
“One, we don't hire portfolio managers. I pretty much only hire people who've never done public equity before which has pros and cons.”
Sundheim: D1 analysts must submit weekly mock portfolios allocating capital
“We, yeah, we, everyone has like a, what we call a mock portfolio. So every week they have to take the positions they cover and they have to say, if I was managing capital, here's how I would allocate capital.”
D1 Capital covered all short positions at peak prices during GameStop rally
“We covered everything at the worst time, and I knew it was the worst time. But, if it kept going on for two weeks, yeah, all of a sudden there's a real problem, and I wasn't going to put the firm at risk, and I told my investors that this is the worst time.”
Sundheim: D1 Capital stopped investing in China around 2022
“Yeah, we stopped investing in China about three years ago.”
Scaringe: Autonomy Is Rivian's Largest Investment Area by Far
“And so for that reason, it's by far the biggest investment area for us in our business.”
Scaringe: Volkswagen Deal Was Driven by Urgency for Software-Defined Architecture
“I think that's a big part of what led to our deal with Volkswagen is, is we offered an ability to very quickly get to that, that state. I think every manufacturer should be thinking, how do we build a software to find architecture as quickly as possible? Becau…”
Andreessen: a16z enforces an absolute ban on TV news in the office
“Like, so for example, it's just like an absolute ban on television news in the office. Like, no, if it's on CNBC today, it does not matter to us. If it does matter to us, we made some horrible mistake eight years ago that we can't fix now anyway, and if it's a…”