Disclosure certainty 5/5 debate potential 3/5

Lopes Lara: Kalshi never limits winning traders

Luana Lopes Lara · Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara · Mar 17, 2026 · at 35:17

Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of Kalshi, contrasts their exchange model with traditional sportsbooks that ban or limit sophisticated winning bettors (sharps).

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“To be clear, we don't limit any winners.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Luana Lopes Lara

Opinion
Lopes Lara: 2024 election showed prediction markets outperform traditional polling
“The polls were completely wrong and the markets were so much better at bringing that sort of information, and I think that it's the shining example of why these markets are forced for good, and we need to have them in the US and regulated”
Luana Lopes Lara Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 13:05 Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lopes Lara: Over 95% of Kalshi maker orders come from peer-to-peer traders
“Over 95 are just like. Peer-to-peer, like, or funds that have like two people that just got stuck.”
Luana Lopes Lara Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 27:35 Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lopes Lara: Prediction markets will improve polling accuracy, not destroy it
“My take is that polls are just going to get a lot better, because what people are going to be is like, okay, I can make money if my polls are right, so I'm just going to commission this poll, and I'm going to do this, And now you can actually, like, compete a …”
Luana Lopes Lara Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 46:32 Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara
Disclosure
Lopes Lara: Kalshi will never list war, terrorism, or assassination markets
“There are a lot of things that we wouldn't do, like wildfires we don't do, war, terrorism, assassination. Those things are bad, and like, there's a moral side of these markets, and we're not going to ever go there.”
Luana Lopes Lara Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 1:02:23 Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara
Insight
Lopes Lara: Fintech and healthcare startups cannot operate by asking forgiveness
“I think that the approach we took from the start was that financial services or healthcare, I think you can't ask for forgiveness. I think there's a big difference between losing people's money, see what goes wrong, like an FTX example that can go very wrong w…”
Luana Lopes Lara Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 2:21 Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara
Assertion Supported
Lopes Lara: CFTC blocked Kalshi election markets for two years
“Not, well, the biggest they said no to was the elections. That's why we had to end up suing them. They said no for two years.”
Luana Lopes Lara Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 6:23 Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara
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