Kalshi

“Because if you ban it, You're actually heightening the risks that you're trying to prevent, because now that activity is going offshore, right? Like, and where you cannot monitor it or police it or do anything to protect it.”

“So, so rarely does it work, and even if you win, you will probably lose. Like, you will end up getting killed in the process.”

“The direct, what we call direct Cauchy Direct, which is our Cauchy.com, Cauchy app, the consumer business, that has grown, you know that has sort of dramatically outpaced the rest, Or other the sort of intermediated or broker business.”

“To me, very important, and he's made over a 150,000 dollars, he's getting every single thing, he paid back student loans, he put himself for a master's degree, bought a car, and all those things, and he just like, Loves these markets, and he's never really tra…”

“Gambling is this idea where the business model is, you are the house, and your revenue is your customer's losses. Like, so, and a lot of the dynamic that you describe has to be true, because your incentive is like, well, somebody's making money, I gotta stop t…”

“So the market making incentives on this side is actually, we don't pay them for it, we just rebate fees, but they have very, Very hard conditions to meet. They need to have uptime of certain amounts, spreads, and top of box size, and all of those things becaus…”

“Most of our users, like, 80% of our users are actually just looking, like, consuming information. They're just coming in and seeing who's gonna win the Texas primary yesterday, and seeing, like, okay, the, this, the polls are saying they're tied, but they're n…”

“Over 95 are just like. Peer-to-peer, like, or funds that have like two people that just got stuck.”

“If you're a trader, you're like an expected value calculator. Like, I think about these sort of tail really bad outcomes all the time, and Luana oftentimes doesn't, and I think this is the thing that actually leads to great outcomes.”

“And like most of our traders and their stack have some sort of like summary and synthesis module that's AI, AI driven.”

“What they do is you start losing, and then they're gonna give you a thousand dollars for you to come back, or like a deposit boost, and all those things, so that they can hook you to keep you coming back, because they want to incentivize the losers. We don't d…”

“Which is, as a regulated exchange, we can't trade.”

“We, every single contract we file with the CFTC, and they have 24 hours to stop it.”

“One thing that we're very excited for, we're actually starting to go in the direction of, for example, things like watches and bags and all of those things are like more going to the collectible side. They're actually able to do derivatives on those things.”

“We actually just launched a week ago this thing called Blocktrades.”

“And if those dimensions, you don't have a good understanding of x one to x n you cannot get a good estimate of y, right? And so you, the paper basically says that you need infinite markets. And prediction markets are this notion of infinite markets, which is l…”

“There's over 2000 people that market making.”

“And that's up 11 X over six months, I think.”

“Like every single trade on Kaoshi goes to the CFTC, they have every single thing, every single case goes to the CFTC for them to review.”

“Right now we only have the binary yes, no. We want to have things like futures, like swaps, options, all of that.”

“And we put out two cases of two weeks ago of two insiders that then because we're also regulated, we're able to charge them a lot of fines. We charge them over five times what they made and all those things they banned and all that.”

“The best inflation forecaster on CalSphere over the last few years is not, none of the institutions or the, you know, the big name hedge funds, it's this guy who lives in Kansas, never traded financial markets before, just likes to read the news, and just know…”

“The third one is really margining systems. Right now it's very bad. You have to put all the money up front. Right. Which makes a lot of, for example, will a hurricane happen this year? Very, very bad for you to be actually like market making or selling those c…”

“Ah, in the beginning of last year, we launched the first broker partner that we had was actually, ah, Robinhood and then Webull.”

“We launched Calci Research recently, which And one of the threads that we want to work on is we're talking to some of the research labs to create a new benchmark around which models actually predict the future better.”

“The polls were completely wrong and the markets were so much better at bringing that sort of information, and I think that it's the shining example of why these markets are forced for good, and we need to have them in the US and regulated”

“Not, well, the biggest they said no to was the elections. That's why we had to end up suing them. They said no for two years.”

“We actually take it even a step further. For example, if you are a government official, you cannot, like if you're in Congress, you cannot trade on bills passing, even though, I don't know if they have an agreement.”

“Obviously the person that is working on the speech or that is saying the speech cannot trade, and that's kind of how we enforce it. Like if you are Gavin Newsom and you are, there's a market where you're going to say you cannot trade it and your staff cannot t…”

“Once we have margin, we can start going to more hurricane, natural disaster insurance, all of that side.”

“To be clear, we don't limit any winners.”

“So, so volume in February was 10.4 billion.”

“There are a lot of things that we wouldn't do, like wildfires we don't do, war, terrorism, assassination. Those things are bad, and like, there's a moral side of these markets, and we're not going to ever go there.”