Kalshi, every mention

Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara Mar 17, 2026 · 44 mentions

• ▶ 0:13 John Collison Tarek Mansour and Luana Lara are co-founders of Calci, one of the new prediction market firms that rose to prominence in the November 24 elections. 2 times in the scene
• ▶ 1:39 John Collison You guys started Calci, and for several years were not able to operate until you got 6 times in the scene
• ▶ 12:42 John Collison Because couldn't Calci have done fine without elections?
• ▶ 14:42 John Collison Could CalShift have been started 10 or 15 years prior? 3 times in the scene
• ▶ 19:17 Luana Lopes Lara So you can go to Robinhood to trade stocks, you can go to Robinhood to trade on Cowshearing, same with Coinbase or whatever. 8 times in the scene
• ▶ 20:19 Tarek Mansour I mean, maybe we won't share numbers, but, uh, the direct, what we call direct Cauchy Direct, which is our Cauchy.com, Cauchy app, the consumer business, that has grown, you know, uh, that has sort of dramatically outpaced the rest,
• ▶ 21:02 John Collison Kind of side of the market, whether people are coming through brokers like a Robinhood or people coming directly to the Calci website. 2 times in the scene
• ▶ 26:52 Tarek Mansour A strong community of super forecasters that are on CalShoot, that can help price these things extremely effectively and fast. 3 times in the scene
• ▶ 29:24 Luana Lopes Lara But no, my, my favorite user is this Rihanna Grande, super fan, and he found Kyle Schuh during the election season, and he's like, I don't like the elections, like whatever. 2 times in the scene
• ▶ 32:59 Tarek Mansour That's, and I was, so, you know, we launched Calci Research recently, which, um,
• ▶ 38:49 John Collison CalShe has built a new kind of marketplace where real world outcomes are traded, like whether the U.S. will confirm whether aliens exist before twin-twenty-seven. 2 times in the scene
• ▶ 43:13 Luana Lopes Lara Because I think what got Kaoshi here was not the regulatory side, was not, it was really that we're just really pushing what is the next thing. 6 times in the scene
• ▶ 45:02 John Collison Um, are there existing businesses that will feel the effects of, uh, Calci and other prediction markets because it's a bigger market, there's more liquidity. 2 times in the scene
• ▶ 51:08 Luana Lopes Lara Like every single trade on Kaoshi goes to the CFTC, they have every single thing, every single case goes to the CFTC for them to review.
• ▶ 54:51 John Collison And, um, it hasn't led to any kind of major societal collapse over there, but clearly, like, this is one of the big debates that, um, that rages around Calci, and 3 times in the scene
• ▶ 1:08:43 Tarek Mansour So you saw Mamdani when his odds were 94% on Kalshi.