The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 483 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 26 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mainstream adoption of fully enclosed VR headsets is unrealistic
“VR may have a specialized role, you know, for more immersive training environments or things like that. Yeah, but even then, I think folks really are going to want to be able to wear glasses and work together, right? I mean, you're going to want to be able to …”
Camera-only smart glasses will quickly get undercut on price
“The problem with camera glasses, if you're really successful, right, you really won't have been able to build a platform because they're not, they don't have an operating system, they don't understand the world, they don't run applications, and therefore you'r…”
Independent studies show Snapchat boosts well-being, unlike TikTok or Instagram
“And I think what's so fascinating, I think now there's been maybe three or more of them, one out of Australia, I think one out of the Netherlands or something, one in the U.S., that show that Snapchat actually has a positive impact on people's well-being and r…”
Pichai: AI models will break security across all regular software
“These models are definitely, like, really gonna break pretty much all software out there. Maybe already we don't know if we sit here and speak.”
Glyman: Simple expense management software will probably evaporate
“I think that if you are completing the small amount of cognitive work, right, let's say you just are you know, expense app. You know, the thing, the spend has occurred. It needs, you know, to go get the, write it down somewhere and get someone's approval, and …”
Nadella: Microsoft has zero AI utilization issues; capacity is sold out
“I don't have a utilization problem. I may have a PUE, like, I mean, I want higher utilization because it's mostly because it's memory bottleneck or what have you, but that is a different, I mean, like, there is not a thing that I have that's not sold out. In f…”
Ricks: Insurers initially refused to cover Eli Lilly's discounted generic insulin
“In the first year, no formularies covered this. So it was really only for that cash payer. No insurance company picked it up, even though it was dramatically cheaper. Now it's about half of the volume, but still half not because that model of this margin sprea…”
Handmer: Desalinated water can be produced for $99 per acre-foot
“So I believe that it should be possible to produce water, desalinated water, for 99 bucks an acre foot, which would be transformational, right?”
Handmer predicts China will beat the United States to the Moon
“Relax the outer space treaty in 2017 with the outer space, so the Artemis Accords, so we can go and kind of make a land grab on the moon, and then it turns out China's going to get there first.”
Sundheim: Chinese tech firms avoided beating earnings to dodge scrutiny
“For a while we were seeing Chinese internet companies, like, they didn't want to beat earnings. Because if you beat earnings, your stock goes up too much. You know, you might be flagging that, like, you're over-earning”
Scaringe: Tesla Cybertruck cannot pass European pedestrian protection safety standards
“Like, for example, a Cybertruck would not, could not work in Europe.”
Lütke: AI will solve all software technical debt
“I don't even think it's going to end up mattering because AI is going to solve all technical debt.”
Lütke: AI will not cause widespread technological unemployment
“I don't even believe in AI unemployment from, to begin with. It's not how things work. But if you were worried about it, F-One is kind of proving that we can just make up completely incredible pursuits, especially with AI and robotics, we can make it cheaper, …”
Andreessen: AI job displacement will be slowed dramatically by licensing and unions
“The employment shifts everybody's worried about are actually not going to happen at anywhere near the velocity people think because it's like, you know, a significant, significant percentage of jobs in the US literally are, you know, licensed or unionized or c…”
Andreessen: US dockworker agreements paid one non-working person per active worker
“One of the things that we, that was discovered during that process that I didn't know is that in prior union agreements with the dock workers, they already had a one-to-one ratio of people sitting at home doing nothing to every productive dock worker as a cons…”
Vogt: Moving into a home without a robot will seem strange soon
“I think it will be strange to move into a home or apartment in five years that doesn't have a home robot, or you won't want to without one.”
Vogt: Next $100B company founded in 2025-2026 will have under 100 people
“I think the next hundred billion dollar company that's created, you know, in 25, 26 will be under a hundred people.”
Upcoming Spectacles will match Apple Vision Pro capabilities in glasses form
“And I think the sweet spot for specs coming later this year is the wearability of, you know, normal glasses, but the capability of you know, true spatial computer, like something like a Vision Pro.”
Future social networking will mean hanging out in person using AR glasses
“This social network of the future is actually hanging out together in person and using specs together. So that's what excites me about the future of digital communication. I think, you know, messaging is fine, but it's hard to compete with actually being toget…”
Companies will shift resources from engineering to distribution to accelerate growth
“People are going to reallocate more resources away from things like software engineering, for example, to distribution in order to grow faster.”
Xu: DoorDash's Dot robot uniquely navigates roads, sidewalks, and bike lanes
“And the sidewalk and the bike lane. And so it's the only vehicle in the world that does that.”
Xu: Google's food ordering failed because it couldn't manage post-checkout logistics
“I remember services, you know, Google food ordering launched in, I forget, 2015 or 16, and they allowed you to order delivery, for example from various Google services, you know, Google Maps, Google Search, et cetera, and while on the one hand it was low frict…”
Staniszewski: ElevenLabs hopes to pass voice Turing test within a year
“Our goal is to like pass the voice Turing test in all those cases, or the Turing test for all conversational agents outside of voice two. And I hope we will be there in the next year or so.”
Staniszewski: Speech-to-speech models are 'definitely dumber' due to size limits
“They are definitely dumber. You need smaller model, you cannot... If you are going speech to speech, usually you will use smaller models, so it's still quick.”
Collison: High-Agency People Will Win From AI Advances, Low-Agency Will Lose
“My biggest takeaway from all this Has been that around agency where I feel like high agency people are the winners of the advances in AI and within organizations, low agency people will lose out.”
Pichai: Leading memory makers cannot rapidly expand short-term capacity
“There is no way that the leading memory companies are going to dramatically improve their capacity. So you have those constraints in the short term, but they get more relaxed as you go out.”
Pichai: 40 million Americans will soon have Wing drone delivery access
“In some reasonable time period, like, forty million Americans will have access to a Bing delivery service, right? And I'm not talking years out or something like that.”
Dolgov: Waymo Gen-6 Hardware Costs a Fraction of Gen-5
“It is very different from the fifth generation. It is simpler. It is more capable. It is much lower cost. It's thinking a fraction of the cost is, you know, comparable to what you would get like a fancy ADA system.”
Dolgov: Waymo driver tech will eventually reach every US USPS address
“Eventually it will. Absolutely. There's no doubt in my mind. I think it's just a matter of when.”
Lopes Lara: Over 95% of Kalshi maker orders come from peer-to-peer traders
“Over 95 are just like. Peer-to-peer, like, or funds that have like two people that just got stuck.”
Mansour: Kalshi's top inflation forecaster was an amateur from Kansas
“The best inflation forecaster on CalSphere over the last few years is not, none of the institutions or the, you know, the big name hedge funds, it's this guy who lives in Kansas, never traded financial markets before, just likes to read the news, and just know…”
Lopes Lara: Prediction markets will improve polling accuracy, not destroy it
“My take is that polls are just going to get a lot better, because what people are going to be is like, okay, I can make money if my polls are right, so I'm just going to commission this poll, and I'm going to do this, And now you can actually, like, compete a …”
Taylor: AI agents will become the primary digital interface for most businesses
“And so then you look at AI agents, and I believe most businesses, it will be their primary digital interface, and it's because it works over WhatsApp, and it works over the phone.”
Taylor: SaaS sector will likely lose value over the next ten years
“Will these companies be less valuable 10 years from now than now? I think the answer is probably yes. Will that be true for every individual company? I don't think that's true.”
Collison: High-agency, non-expert engineers are ascendant at Stripe thanks to AI
“High work ethic people. Who maybe weren't the best engineers you know, previously or now, those people are massively ascendant, as far as I can tell, because they suddenly got the exoskeleton, you know, and like, they always have the ideas as to what we should…”
Taylor: Most Silicon Valley companies will stop hand-writing code by mid-2026
“And then the other thing is I think most companies in Silicon Valley won't write code by hand.”
Langley: Flock Safety cleared over one million US crimes last year
“So we're, last year, we helped clear just north of a million crimes in America.”
Langley: Cartels fly night-vision drones to case Virginia homes
“In one of the counties we work with, it's an affluent-ish county in the Virginia area South American cartels fly illegal drones through these neighborhoods. They'll flip on night vision, look through houses to see if anyone's home, then go break in.”
Langley: Body cameras exonerate officers in majority of foul play cases
“In the majority of cases that I see, where foul play is called, it is almost always the inverse. Where a law enforcement officer was just trying to do their job, and on the other side, there was other mental health issue, there was something gone wrong, and it…”
Langley: Cobb County solves 100% of violent crimes
“Cobb County would be one which is like the second largest county... If you commit violence in Cobb County, you will get arrested.”
Langley: VC-backed public safety tech startups will fail or be consolidated
“I see a new VC backed company every day, and I'm like, there's just a, all these things are going out of business, so there's just going to be consolidation.”
Langley: Majority of 911 calls do not require a human officer response
“Majority of the calls actually never need a human to show up.”
Langley: Flock Safety's drone camera can read license plates nearly a mile away
“Like, we can zoom, we can read a license plate almost a mile away. Like, crazy specs. Great thermal.”
Pope: Google completely stopped publishing its AI research around 2022
“In twenty-twenty-two was about the time when just Google completely stopped publishing its research. And so all the good papers are from before that as a result.”
Pope: Model parameter counts will grow much faster than context lengths
“Really tied into this context thing, I think the context size will stay ballpark the same way it is, maybe a few times larger. But the parameter count will go up. Like, parameter count should grow much, much faster than context length, actually, just because o…”
Collison: Stablecoin issuers will buy large amounts of US debt and strengthen dollar
“Stablecoin issuers will, in a similar way, be large buyers of U.S. Debt and create more dollar strength.”