The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 126 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 23 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Staniszewski: Advanced voice AI will reach cars via cloud in 2026
“I think this year it should be in the automotive
Site two, or some of the applications.
John Collison: Okay, so you think we'll start seeing kind of great voice models in cars this year?
Mati Staniszewski: This year for their own cloud use cases, like on, on, …”
Staniszewski: Speech-to-speech AI will flourish in companion apps
“And speech to speech, as you think about maybe more of like a companion version of the applications, that's where that will flourish because maybe the hallucinations aren't as important, but the latency is a little bit more, and maybe hallucinations are even a…”
Staniszewski: Fused voice-LLM models will reach hundreds of billions of parameters
“The thing that's, you know, like I hesitated on the question is, in a cascaded approach, you probably will not see like dramatic size changes. You inherently want the models to be quick and reliable. You want to orchestrate them in a smart way. In a fused appr…”
Collison: Every AI product will need subscriptions plus overage payments
“I think every AI product will need, you know, they probably want to have some all you can eat, most of what you can eat, subscription with limits, and then the ability to pay for overages.”
Cacioppo: Modernizing FedRAMP will increase divergence among compliance standards
“I don't think they will. I think you're just going to have even more divergence between these things. You're just like, less control overlap.”
Dolgov: Waymo Gen-6 Driver Will Expand to Hyundai Ioniq in 2026
“And then we're gonna put the six generation Waymo driver on other vehicle forms like the Hyundai Ionic that's coming, you know later in the year.”
Taylor: Specialized Cantonese voice AI will be fully commoditized within three years
“So we did all this work, and in fact, you know, we, I think, have the best Cantonese support on the market. Great for us, and it's a huge selling point, and it's a technology that will certainly be commodity, commoditized in three years.”
Taylor: Lower marginal software costs will drive a build-over-buy enterprise shift
“One risk is that more people will build than they do now versus buy, because the marginal cost of writing software goes down. I think that'll be true for some software, particularly developer platforms and things like that that are Already being consumed in pu…”
Taylor: AI will produce mainstream scientific breakthroughs by mid-2026
“I think we will have some scientific breakthroughs with AI that positively break through into the mainstream press and awareness.”
Pope: MatX will sell AI inference chips first due to lower risk
“Our product is both training and inference, but I think the first sales will be an inference. That's mostly just a market effect where It's easier to buy, like, it's not as big of a risk to go to buy an inference cluster than as a training cluster.”
Pope predicts supply crunches across the entire AI hardware supply chain
“The supply chain we're gonna have crunches on, on all of the supply chain, really. So if you look at the, sort of, the big components of what any company, but like us, for example, build-out there is dependency on Logic Dies from typically TSMC, maybe Samsung,…”
Pope: 4-bit precision will probably be the primary AI format, like Nvidia
“We think probably the main thing will be similar to where NVIDIA is at, which is four bit precision.”
Collison: Stripe's revenue suite on track to hit $1B ARR
“Metronome joins our revenue suite, comprising Stripe billing, invoicing, tax, and more, Which is on track to hit an annual run rate of a billion dollars this year.”
Ben Thompson: The semiconductor market will have excess memory capacity soon
“We're going to believe it or not. We are going to have too much memory capacity in a few years because we have such a shortage right now.”
Bowman: 17% of UK taxpayers will pay higher rates by 2029
“By 2029, so in four years, 17%
Of taxpayers are going to be higher rate taxpayers.
So, fiscal drift, which is just holding the bands constant and letting inflation push people into the higher rate, the 40, the 40, but really forty-two-pee rate is, I mean, more…”
Collison: A dedicated UI for finance could emerge within 10 years
“I feel like there could be a product in the next 10 years for finance people, where in hindsight, it is obviously the correct UI, but just like the spreadsheet kind of came out of nowhere as a UI, it may feel like it came out of nowhere at that time.”
Abrams: Open-source stablecoin rails will outperform traditional financial stacks over time
“The companies who are building on top of this are behind today, but basically making a bet that the cumulative power of all the builders in the world is going to create a better application over N years.”
Local currency stablecoins will reach 20% market share, Abrams predicts
“But I do think we, and I hope we get to local stablecoins being 15, 20% of the market, because you need them transactionally in all these markets, and you want to have alternative FX markets, and you want people to be able to store in local currencies.”
Abrams: European MiCA compliance will tighten and look very different in five years
“And then over time they're going to clamp down and the, what it looks like to be compliant in Europe will probably be different, very different in five years versus today.”
Stablecoins will ultimately recede into background infrastructure, predicts Abrams
“There will be, ultimately, these stablecoins will recede into the background purely as infrastructure.”
Handmer: All ground transport will be electric within several decades
“And it would not surprise me if when we're like crusty old men sitting here, like, you know, At, let's say in our late eighties, that pretty much all the cars and all the trucks were electric, all the ground-based transport was electric.”
Handmer: The concentrated solar thermal collector near Vegas will be shut down
“They're going to close it down, so enjoy it.”
Sundheim: Clean Harbors can grow earnings in the teens for 10 years
“It's just very, very good business that's, and the starting multiple is pretty reasonable, and I think, you know, I can grow earnings well into the teens for 10 years.”
Sundheim: Neobanks like Nubank and Revolut will increasingly take market share
“Iterate on product faster, have better engineers, and I think that those banks are going to increasingly take market share.”
Lütke predicts Shopify's internal workflow system becomes a standard software category
“And I think there's going to be some productizations of GSD that'll be available to everyone. That's probably going to be renamed 15 times or whatever, become a category of software that's going to exist. And then everyone's going to be wondering how the hell …”
Osika: Lovable will eventually be entirely built and edited using Lovable itself
“We still have not done this bootstrap where everything on lovable is edited with itself. And we are going to get there.”
Wu: Developer tools will combine synchronous IDEs with async agents
“And so I think this merged experience that comes up is basically something where for anything that actually needs you in the loop, where you can go and make the decision and you're looking at the high level strategy or deciding what you want to build, you're i…”
Vogt: Robotics will inevitably overhype expectations and trigger widespread disappointment
“Even as an industry, if the robotics industry sets the expectations too high on a whole for what the next generation of robots will do, everyone's going to be disappointed. And I think it's without a doubt will happen in robotics and not because of any one bad…”