The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 483 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 26 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Scaringe: Auto Production Will Shift to China Without Trade Friction
“If There's zero trade friction between, let's say, a country and China. More production in the fullness of time will shift to China because of those advantages. The lower cost of labor, the lower cost of capital.”
Collison: AI platforms will become the new aggregation layer, disrupting legacy aggregators
“It feels like step one is, that's going to happen with agentic commerce is, I feel like existing aggregators, if just aggregation is their raison d'etre, then they're going to have a lot of, ah, questions that they need to answer, because ChatGPT and the AI ap…”
Collison: Stablecoin checkout is a few years from mass-market adoption
“I think there'll be something similar with stable coins where they'll be offered at the point of checkout way before people Become super familiar with them, but we're probably only a small number of years away from some mass market.”
Lütke: Canada ranks top three globally in every critical manufacturing resource
“It has in the ground basically as much, like, it's number one, two, or three on every single resource that is of value in, in the in, in the next manufacturing buildup age”
Andreessen: Global AI development is consolidating into just two geographic hubs
“You see this in data, actually, already. It's AI was reconsolidating. You know, to basically two places on Earth and only one in the West.”
Andreessen: The 2000 dot-com crash was almost entirely a telecom credit bubble
“It was almost entirely a telco bubble, and it was almost entirely a telco crash, and you know that for two reasons. One is the sheer amounts of money involved were so much greater on the telco side, and then the other is telco is where the debt came in. To get…”
Andreessen: Most AI computation will run on smaller, open-source models
“My guess is we, they're gonna live in a world in which most aggregate AI is gonna be executed probably on smaller, smaller form factors,
And probably most of that is going to be open source.”
Andreessen: Tokenizing real-world assets will work incredibly well beyond dollars
“The idea was a crypto token wrapping a real world asset. So that was one of the, part of the original thinking on all this stuff. It's worked incredibly well for dollars. I believe that will work incredibly well for many other kinds of assets.”
Osika: Non-coders are making hundreds of thousands from prompt-built production applications
“That's what we're seeing with people making hundreds of thousands of dollars having built production-ready applications, but just by prompting, not looking at the code ever.”
Osika: AI agent failure rates will drop tenfold within a year
“I think the, like, agents, they often get confused and trip over themselves, and we're in a year going to see that happening, like, by an order of magnitude less often.”
Wu: Enterprises measure 8x to 15x productivity gains using Devin for migrations
“I think in practice what we see with folks, especially in these kind of like enterprise migrations is, is, you know, when folks measure internally, they see something like an eight to 15 X gain for a lot of these use cases with Devon because, Yeah, as you're s…”
Wu: Language syntax will matter less than product sense in software engineering
“Yeah, I think what we find is, is, and I think this, you know, we'll see this trend generally in software engineering, which is knowing all the little, memorizing all the facts or knowing all the little details or being really good at Syntax of some language o…”
Wu: Developers will stop using code as primary interface in 2-4 years
“I think that there will come a point, and my guess on this point is probably in the neighborhood of, let's say, two, three, four years from now, where we stop using code as the main interface.”
Wu: The transition to AI will create far more software engineers
“Funnily enough, I mean, I think, if anything, we will have way more software engineers, not fewer.”
Collison: Everything will pass through a transformer model before consumption
“Everything will pass through a transformer model before it's consumed.”
Wu: Sudden AGI singularity won't happen in the next few years
“My honest opinion is, I think there is some, you know, rapid, singularity, superintelligence thing that people kind of talk about. I would guess It's very hard to say. You know, nothing's impossible, but I would guess that that's not something that happens in …”
Snap is about to reach one billion monthly active users
“We're about to reach a billion monthly active users, which is a big deal for us.”
Snap is on the verge of net income profitability
“We're also on the verge of net income profitability, which is really exciting for us, especially as we invest really meaningfully in hardware and our specs glasses effort.”
Large screen use cases will move to AR smart glasses first
“What I actually would estimate is that a lot of the large screen use cases are the first to move, right? So if you think about what's so interesting about specs, you can have a huge TV, right, with you almost anywhere. A giant screen with you almost anywhere. …”
The paradigm of manually operating computers all day is ending
“Like, I do think the paradigm that we all have to operate our computers all day long is going away, and I think that's hugely positive.”
Over one trillion selfies are captured on Snapchat annually
“Over a trillion selfies have been captured on Snapchat, right? And so I think when you know, in, in the, over the same period, and so when you.”
Xu: DoorDash is only platform saving drivers $1.40-$1.90 on gas
“And we're the only platform today to take care of Dashers when there is, you know, these increasing gas prices and making sure that, you know, we have their back and that we're actually trying to help them save a dollar 40 to a dollar 90 per gallon for Dashers…”
Xu: DoorDash cut COVID commissions 50%, costing over $100M
“Or in COVID, we were the only company to cut commissions by 50%. When we were not yet profitable as a company, that was an expense over a hundred million dollars.”
Xu: US food spend flipped from 80% groceries to 60% dining out
“It used to be that in the, you know, these are rough numbers, but in the 19 fifties when the government was measuring this, we would spend in this country, in America, maybe 75 to 80 cents on the dollar on groceries versus restaurants. In present day, you know…”
Xu: DoorDash's alert system warned NYPD of a Manhattan shooting first
“Within minutes of a Dasher seeing the shooter walk in to the building, you know, we have an alert system that doesn't just alert all Dasher's and consumers and merchants within that vicinity, but also all local law enforcement. And actually we were the first t…”
Staniszewski: Accents and emotion are emergent properties in ElevenLabs models
“And in our approach, effectively, you would give the model open-ended ability to select what those parameters should be. So it's not going to be British, Polish, Spanish, English speaker but the model will deduce them themselves. The same for other set of para…”
ElevenLabs expressive mode lets voice agents detect and match human emotions
“So today, finally, you can have both speed generation or entire voice agent experience With what we call expressive mode where the agent knows the emotions on the other side. So if the person is stressed, it can react and be reassuring and that's generating a …”
Staniszewski: ElevenLabs added $100M net new ARR in one quarter
“This quarter was kind of one of the best for enterprise growth, where we had the first quarter hit a hundred million in an additional ARR growth, which is crazy.”
Pichai: BERT and MUM drove Google Search's largest quality leaps
“BERT and MUM, people underestimate how much, because we measure search quality so religiously, some of the biggest jumps in search quality in that period where search went ahead of everyone else was because of BERT and MUM. We built transformers and used it im…”
Pichai: Gemini Flash models reach 90% of Gemini Pro capability
“The flash models are at like 90% the capability of the pro models but much faster much more effective to serve and the vertical integration helps and so on.”
Pichai: Google Search will evolve into an AI agent manager
“A lot of what are just information seeking queries will be agent taking search, You will be completing tasks. You have many threads running.”
Pichai: Google scaled capital expenditures from $30 billion to $180 billion
“Look, I think, you know, we probably have scaled our capex from thirty billion to a hundred and approximately a hundred and eighty billion.”
Pichai: AI Will Meaningfully Accelerate US GDP Growth
“So, but I think the US economy is so much larger than it was 10 years ago. So to grow that, even at a half a percentage point higher than, you know, that, that's a massive contribution. So I expect it to play out that way.”
Pichai: Quantum computing will have an advantage in simulating reality
“My instinct tells me there'll be, you know, simulating weather, simulating, you know, reality, all that, I think, quantum 11 advantage.”
Pichai: Consumer AI interfaces will run full coding models underneath
“Look, I think effectively the consumer interfaces are going to have Full coding models underneath, right? And the right harnesses and like the right scales and the ability to persist and run somewhere securely in the cloud, locally and in the cloud. So all tho…”
Pichai: 2027 will be a profound inflection point for agentic workflows
“I definitely expect in some of these areas, 27 to be Important inflection point for certain things. Even the people doing it, that is the workflow through which they would produce it. And, you know, maybe for a while, you would check it in the conventional way…”
Cacioppo: GRC teams will collapse into single-threaded owners managing AI
“What we're talking about now, and we haven't seen yet, but if I, like, had the future cast and guess, is we're going to see, actually, Those GRC teams collapse a bit more into these single threaded owners.”
Cacioppo: Outbound phone calls are currently working for sales
“Outbound phone calls are currently working.”
Waymo Co-CEO: Gen-6 Custom Robotaxi Is Launching in 2026
“It's, you know, we're not, it's not open to the, you know, the public yet. But, you know, I took a ride in it the other day, fully autonomously, and that's coming this year.”
Dolgov: Waymo LiDAR bounced under bus to detect occluded pedestrian
“What actually turned out was happening is that our peripheral lighters bounce under the bus, and there was just a little bit of very, very noisy reflection of the movement of the person's feet. That was enough for the AI models that, hey, I likely there's a pe…”
Waymo runs 3,000 cars delivering 500k rides and 4M miles weekly
“We have about 3000 cars on the roads. We're doing about half a million rides per week. It, that translates to about, you know, over four million fully autonomous miles per week. We are operating in a fully autonomous mode in 11 cities in the US and 10 of those…”
Dolgov: Waymo may serve low-density areas via privately owned vehicles
“And this is where, you know, a personally owned vehicle that is equipped with the Waymo driver is maybe, you know, how you will see it materialized.”
Lopes Lara: CFTC blocked Kalshi election markets for two years
“Not, well, the biggest they said no to was the elections. That's why we had to end up suing them. They said no for two years.”
Lopes Lara: 80% of Kalshi users only consume information without trading
“Most of our users, like, 80% of our users are actually just looking, like, consuming information. They're just coming in and seeing who's gonna win the Texas primary yesterday, and seeing, like, okay, the, this, the polls are saying they're tied, but they're n…”
Mansour: Kalshi logged $10.4B in trading volume in February
“So, so volume in February was 10.4 billion.”
Lopes Lara: Prediction markets will complement news media rather than destroy it
“A lot of people are like prediction markets will destroy the news. I think it's way more complimentary. It's like when you're talking about an election, you're going to give your opinion, the market's not going to give you an opinion. You still need the commen…”
Lopes Lara: Kalshi fined two insider traders 5x their total profits
“And we put out two cases of two weeks ago of two insiders that then because we're also regulated, we're able to charge them a lot of fines. We charge them over five times what they made and all those things they banned and all that.”
Taylor: Sierra AI agents are calling each other in English over PSTN
“So, we have payers with AI agents that pick up the phone. And we have providers that have AI agents that pick up the phone and make phone calls. We have revenue cycle management companies that work to make outbound calls to do it. We've already had- ... We've …”