The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 964 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 102 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Grantham: Society will achieve an enormous green transition within 15 years
“You will come back in 10 or 15 years, and you will see that we have made an enormous transition to a green economy. We will win technologically.”
Grantham: Markets will see a major reversal favoring value over growth
“We may not snap back the 120% I would have calculated 20 years ago, but we are going to have a very big reversal in favor of value stocks sooner or later. I think we can be pretty safe about that.”
Grantham: Developed markets face 1% to 1.25% GDP growth without green spending
“Without that, we continue on the flight path we've been on, I think one percent, maybe one and a quarter, is the kind of growth rate In GDP per capita that we're looking at for the next 20 years.”
Grantham: Green VC will significantly outperform broader venture capital
“Because I think the top line opportunities It will be way over average even in the BC universe for a long time.”
Rodriguez admits his PED suspension may cost him the Hall of Fame
“This thing that I did, May cost me the Hall of Fame, and that will suck, but I have no one to blame but myself.”
Ellis: Influx of talent will eventually arbitrage away private equity return premiums
“And so we're going to have lots of talented people going into private equity. And over time, they will arbitrage the difference risk adjusted and liquidity adjusted pretty well between publicly listed securities and private equity.”
Moseley: Talent and location constraints will ultimately derail APFC's success
“It's been very hard for us to open an office outside of Juneau, and so hiring and retaining the best people is a challenge for us. I think it's a challenge that will ultimately derail our success.”
Walden: Crypto tokens allow users to earn ownership without full-time employment
“And so I think this is a really profound idea where it's going to change the way that people come to work and that they won't have to go and become a full-time employee to earn some ownership value for the value that they contribute to the platform or service …”
Liow in 2021: S&P 500 will struggle to exceed mid-single digit returns
“In fact, I think it's challenging to do even higher than mid-single digits this next decade.”
Garcia: PERA targets 7.25% return using 10% beta leverage and 1% alpha
“What we're looking at is in our beta book, we're looking to incorporate embedded leverage in the asset classes and then about in a very modest amount, which is about 10% at the total asset allocation level. So we think we can get somewhere around a six percent…”
Housenbold in 2021: Disinflation and low rates will drive continued multiple expansion
“In fact, disflation is probably a bigger risk than inflation over the last few years. I don't think the feds worried about interest rates, and that will continue to allow multiples to expand. It'll allow equities to continue to rise and allow startups to have …”
Paul: The NFT Space Will Probably Grow 100x By 2024
“So I think over the next three years, we're going to see the NFT space grow probably a hundred X in size.”
Peters: Bitcoin Lacks Sustainable Downside Until Institutional On-Ramps Are Built
“Until those on-ramps are built, and until I'm getting those calls from the biggest brokers and investment banks, and there's that, of course, there's downside. There's always downside in market, but I don't think there's much sustainable downside until we at l…”
Peters: Bitcoin Will Coexist With Digital Fiat Currencies
“The investor in me is, look, this is the future of money. If it's allowed to survive and coexist with digital fiat, which I strongly believe it will be, then we're at the outset of A decade or a hundred year journey in terms of what this asset class will becom…”
Peters: Universal Global Digital Wallet Adoption Expected Within a Decade
“In 10 years, you have a high degree of confidence that almost everyone on the planet will have digital wallet on their phone. And they'll view it as being as secure as Citibank or anything. And they'll be able to move money between currencies, both government …”
Peters: Most Crypto Assets Will Underperform Bitcoin and Ethereum
“It's probably the case that a lot of those assets over time won't even come close to the performance that I see out of these two assets.”
Unregulated, dark financial models will not be permitted in the US
“If folks want to completely live in the dark and be away from a regulatory regime or a centralized financial institution, I just don't think that functions in the US. It's just not going to.”
Compounding weather shocks could eventually escalate into national financial market risks
“Is it fair to say that climate change currently is going to cause financial stability or a financial crisis? No, not at the time. But if we have to think about climate change going forward for decades, and when you have these micro shocks across the country, w…”
Incoming Biden SEC chair will prioritize mandatory corporate climate disclosures
“So my suspicion is whoever is nominated or potentially in the queue for a SEC chairmanship, this will be a priority for the administration.”
Salem: Increased Competition from SPACs Will Force Private Equity Returns Down
“And I think SPACs aren't going away. And so I think there's even more competition. So I just think there's just one overarching fact here is returns have to go down. They just have to.”
Salem predicts private equity returns will inevitably dampen to single digits
“So I do think private equity will have a dampening of returns, meaningfully dampening, but when the 10 years trading at. Maybe if returns are only single digit for private equity, that's still good enough. I just think returns have to come down.”
Vanguard private equity will outperform public equity by 200-500 basis points
“We feel confident that this private equity offer will outperform public equity, whether it's two, three, four, 500 basis points.”
Dixon: Blockchain is about to enter an exponential growth flywheel phase
“I think we're about to hit that, I believe, in the blockchain world.”
Dixon predicts mainstream consumer blockchain adoption within one to five years
“I would say the short answer is somewhere between one and five years.”
Chamath: Solving major problems over next 50 years requires for-profit businesses
“Most of the true innovation that's going to happen over the next 50 years will be technological in nature.
And so at a very practical, pragmatic lens, you're going to need to hire product managers and engineers and designers, material scientists, chemists, bi…”
Greenblatt: Active management business will suffer, but stock picking opportunities will grow
“I think the world will continue to get harder for active managers as far as a business is concerned. But if you're a stock picker, if you're an active manager and you're an individual stock picker, the world's getting better for you because less people are doi…”
Papic: Dollar will fall, yields rise, and global equities beat US
“Because if Biden or Trump wins from a macro perspective, I think dollars going down, I think ten-year yields are going up. I think U.S. Equities are going to do well, but I think global equities are going to do better. Commodities are also going to do extremel…”
Papic: US Will Not Sever Economic Relationship with China
“Eventually American policymakers realize this is a constraint, this is a huge constraint, that they cannot sever their economic relationship from China, because if they do, somebody else will pick up the benefits, the revenues.”
Mainstream economics' excessive reliance on axiomatic thinking will ultimately become discredited
“Excessive belief in the power of reason and the excessive reliance on axiomatic thinking, which is what happens in the economic profession. Ultimately, because it's flawed, it will become discredited.”
Venture capital will become significantly more model-driven over the next five years
“I think that five years, I think that'll get challenged over the next five years. I think people will become more, more model driven, more data driven, more rigorous about that.”
Major automakers will fully transition to EVs by 2024, abandoning gas engines
“You've also seen major sustained investments by the automakers that are of a scope and scale that mean it's not clear when the curve ramps in the small amount, but four years from now, since people aren't doing new engine programs, they're switching to electri…”
ESG will become a primary driver of activist investing profits
“We think that it will become increasingly one of the more important tools in the activist toolkit, and it will be a source of profits and value to drive, again, sustainable businesses in the long run.”
Global warming will exceed 2°C without aggressive carbon pricing within a decade.
“Bottom line is that we can expect that temperature to get above two degrees if we don't act very soon in the next, say, decade.”
Society will likely need to extract most current CO₂ emissions via geoengineering.
“We're probably going to have to pull most of the CO₂ that we're putting into the atmosphere here today back out.”
Bob Litterman predicts climate policy action will be an abrupt phase change.
“And to me, the big opportunity here now is the recognition that the response is not going to be a slow increase in concern about an action on climate. We haven't taken appropriate action yet, and we're going to have to. And when that happens, it's going to be …”
Jefferson: Private equity funds will inject capital to save struggling CLO credits
“And the one thing I can guarantee you is, is that people who raise money will never give it back. They're just not going to give it back and say, I couldn't find anything. So they're going to find something to invest in. I think that's going to come to helping…”
Siegel: Long-term investors should tilt toward value over growth over 10-20 years
“If you're a long-term investor, you should probably tilt your portfolio toward value, not growth at this point. You may lose for a while, but in 10 or 20 years, you'll be very happy.”
Siegel: Global Population Will Peak Late This Century and Then Decline
“The population is going to continue to grow slowly and peak late in this century and then begin to decline.”
Siegel: Future Global Wealth Creation Will Exceed the Past 250 Years
“There's going to be more wealth creation in the future than there was in the last 250 years.”
Peters: Pensions will not be able to hit 7.5% return targets
“There's no way pensions are going to be able to even come close. They're not even to be able to pretend that they can anymore.”
Peters: Equities are likely to drop much lower before crisis ends
“I think we're a lot closer to the ceiling in terms of equity prices here than we are to the floor. I think it's highly likely that we'll be a lot lower in equities before this is over.”
Peters: Post-COVID deleveraging will slow growth and expose public pension insolvency
“So the question I think you have to ask yourself is, will we go back to that type of financialized leveraged Corporate sector and investment portfolio. And I would say that it's pretty clear to me that is not happening. Okay. And so if that's not happening, th…”
Peters: Portfolios leveraging pseudo-diversification will be the worst performers
“I think we're going to find that the portfolios that applied that logic to the greatest degree are the worst performing. And so that behavior will be significantly curtailed, whether it's through regulation or whether it's through investment committees and end…”
Peters: Fed bailouts preventing capital destruction guarantee a prolonged low-return environment
“What the Fed is doing and the Treasury is they're saying, let's just make sure that no one goes broke, and let's make sure that none of this capital gets destroyed, and so I don't see how that doesn't lead to a long period of really low returns.”
Baumgartner: Active Management Will See a Golden Resurgence in Coming Years
“I'd specifically point out that I think active management is going to have a golden resurgence here in the coming years.”
Inker: US Value Spread Suggests Value Stocks Will Win Over 5-10 Years
“Again, in the US, the value spread is significantly wider than normal, and that probably means value deserves to win over the next five to 10 years.”
Aitken: US will likely implement yield curve control and semi-permanent QE
“We're going to have interest rates at very low levels. We're probably going to have some element of yield curve control in the United States. I don't know yet, but some element of asset purchases are going to be semi-permanent from the Fed, which probably serv…”
Hamilton: Heavy Inflows into Private Equity Will Lead to Disappointing Returns
“In a world where there is so much money going into private equity right now, I mean, obviously, inflows of capital lead to price discovery, which collapses these kind of informational edges that a lot of people have built, so I do think that there are a lot of…”