Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moseley: Talent and location constraints will ultimately derail APFC's success
“It's been very hard for us to open an office outside of Juneau, and so hiring and retaining the best people is a challenge for us. I think it's a challenge that will ultimately derail our success.”
Disclosure
Moseley: APFC Pulled Back From GP Stakes, Favors Manager Seeding
“So because of the pricing environment, and because of the time intensity, we haven't invested a lot of time and energy in stakes recently. I view the seeding business as a challenging but more sustainable opportunity.”
Insight
Moseley: Most LPs fail at pacing discipline by accelerating into hot markets
“One of the easiest things to get right for LPs, but still the thing that almost everybody seems to get wrong, is being disciplined about pacing, because there's so many structural mechanisms that push us as limiteds
To increase our pacing in hot markets, to in…”
Assertion Supported
Moseley: APFC owns 299 Park Avenue but cannot occupy space there
“Say, two 99 Park Avenue, which is a building we own, but I'm not allowed to occupy space there.”
Disclosure
Moseley: Not interested in staying at APFC without competitive resources
“If we're able to deliver those resources, which really just translate into money and focus, a larger team, a well-paid team, if we can't deliver those resources, then we won't win. And I'm not really interested in sticking around if we don't have the tools to …”
Insight
Moseley: Analyzing market opportunity before the team yields best PE outcomes
“Analytically, I think starting with a market opportunity and then trying to identify the best team to pursue, to execute on that market opportunity, that seems to have led to the best outcomes for me.”
Insight
Moseley: Sponsor incentives matter more in co-investments than valuation multiples
“Understanding the context, understanding fully the incentives of the different players, that turns out to be more determinative than I would have guessed. If you go back and look at these deals, turns out some of those factors matter a lot more than the factor…”
Insight
Moseley: Commodity Co-Investment Capital Yields Lower Returns Than Underserved Niches
“Those are great managers, and there are lots of great deals out there, but blended, cumulatively, hard to earn, very high returns on what's essentially commodity capital. But if we can deliver co-investment capital to a corner of the market that's not getting …”
Opinion
Moseley: PE consulting has least attractive economics in private markets
“The nature of that business, of the private equity consulting business, is that the economics aren't very interesting. It's sort of the, maybe the least economically interesting part of the whole private markets ecosystem, but a potentially valuable platform f…”
Insight
Moseley: In-House Direct Investing Matters More for Deal Access Than Fee Savings
“Our view then and our view now was we need to take out some of those layers and the benefit, the reward for that wouldn't be just avoiding some fees. That's actually sort of the smallest component of the incremental value that We identified, but that we would …”
Disclosure
APFC hires multiple outside consultants for larger private equity co-investments
“For a larger than average co-investment, we typically have More than one consultant often will have two or three, an industry expert, a banker, and sometimes a private equity sort of fund consultant, like a pathway or a step stone, and they're hugely helpful t…”
Assertion Supported
Moseley: APFC needs 18 months to get legislative approval for an FTE
“It might be that it takes 18 months to get approval for, because we have to go through a legislative budgeting and approval process, to get approval for an extra FTE”
Insight
Moseley: LP and GP contract negotiations should not be viewed as zero-sum pendulums
“The metaphor that comes up endlessly is that it's a pendulum. Every time I work with a different lawyer, they'll say something about how the pendulum has now swung a little bit more to the GPs or a little more to the LPs, And the reason I hate that metaphor is…”
Assertion Supported
Moseley: Alaska's initial $900M oil lease dwarfed its $219M state budget
“The first lease sale Which I think was in 1969 or 19 70 in Alaska, was nine hundred million dollars. So nine hundred million dollars in those 19 70 dollars went to the state treasury. But the state was tiny and the economy was stalled. The whole budget, the Al…”
Assertion Supported
Moseley: APFC holds $75B, with $20B in actively managed private markets
“So the overall fund is about seventy five billion dollars today, and 16% of that Today, it's marked at about, ah, 12 and a half billion is private equity. Altogether, we have, excluding real estate and excluding hedge funds, it's about twenty billion in assets…”
Disclosure
APFC plans to grow private equity allocation from 16% to 19%
“Well, we have, I don't know how private equity today's 16 with a plan to grow to 19 over the next three years is the fastest growing component of this.”
Assertion Supported
APFC holds about $2.5 billion in internally managed credit and infrastructure
“We've got about two and a half billion in private credit and infrastructure and those neighboring activities, those activities that overlap on the margin with private equity. Are also actively managed internally.”
Disclosure
Moseley: 25% non-fund PE allocation consumes two-thirds of APFC team time
“So while 75% of the capital is deployed through funds, the other 25% takes probably more like two-thirds of our time, and that's a range of activities that include co-investments, structured investments of different kinds in funds.”
Disclosure
Moseley: APFC never makes direct investments without consulting a specialized GP
“So even when we're making direct investments, I haven't made a single investment here without at least talking to a general partner with specialized skills.”
Disclosure
Moseley: APFC was largest founding investor in Juno, Denali, American Homes
“We have been involved from the founding and we've been the largest investor in several of these businesses like American Homes for Rent and Juno Therapeutics and Denali Therapeutics.”
Disclosure
Moseley: APFC sold secondary assets three times over eight years
“We've sold assets in the secondary market three times in the last eight years because we thought there was a, at least a temporary premium attached to certain assets, and in particular to a collection, to a portfolio of assets that could be aggressively levere…”
Disclosure
Moseley: APFC used secondaries and co-investments to avoid the J-curve
“We bought secondary assets, and that's because we were launching the program, and that's a great way, and it's the only secondary Asset acquisition that we've done because of a view on pricing, but there it made perfect sense because we were able to eliminate …”
Disclosure
Moseley: Alaska Permanent Fund invests in 15 to 20 funds per year
“We're investing in 15 or 20 funds a year”
