The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 963 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 102 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Environmental commodity markets will face shortages and price inflections by mid-2020s
“And in the window of time we're in now, sort of mid decade, 20 twenties, we are likely to be flipping into an environment where we're going to be in shortage of many of these instruments. And that's likely to cause a significant price inflection.”
Steyer: The US is not going to adopt single-payer healthcare
“The key issue in this primary campaign seems to be whether we're going to have single payer healthcare, which anyone with a brain in their head knows we're not going to have single payer healthcare.”
Steyer: Every company, even ExxonMobil, will eventually become a climate company
“Every company, Exxon, is going to be a climate company. No question about it.”
Steyer: Siting and construction delays mean nuclear fusion won't impact until 2040
“And I think people feel as if they can break through on the engineering in the next 10 years, then that would have real impact, because then you have to site, build, plants. That takes a really long time. I'm sure there'd be a lot of pressure to do it faster. …”
Kayden: VC managers will face significant LP turnover after the boom
“You're going to see a lot of turnover in the LP base for managers broadly, as people see who really performed well, and what was a very promiscuous environment, and those people who stayed at the party too long”
Douvos: Core and opportunity fund conflicts will anger LPs during downturns
“What we saw in 2002 1001, 2002 is all of a sudden you find these companies that have like these distressed fundraisers and you actually find the same fund owning two different securities, which may be in conflict with each other. And maybe one fund has capital…”
Kayden: Later-stage venture is most vulnerable to market correction
“We don't tend to like larger funds, and we don't like later stage investing, largely because we think that is an area that is sort of more correlated to the public markets, you know, and an arbitrage opportunity, and so at a period of Massive, great inflation.…”
Ivascyn: Green transition and geopolitics will drive structural inflation and desynchronized growth
“In the last few years, we've talked about a world where There's going to be less synchronized growth cycles where inflation is going to be more of a challenge going forward, perhaps structurally because of some of the physical investment necessary, particularl…”
Ivascyn: PIMCO expects US core inflation in high 2% range by year-end
“In the spread sectors, our base case economic view is reasonably constructive. U.S. Inflation heading back down to the high two level on the core side at the end of the year. Based on recent constructive economic data, slow growth, basically a fifty-fifty chan…”
Ivascyn: Fed rates at 5% will trigger massive loan downgrades
“If we see even moderate declines in EBITDA over the course of the next few quarters with the fed at five percent and gosh, six percent would be a real challenge. We think a massive amount of that opportunity set is going to be open and subject to potential dow…”
Scaramucci bets firm and personal assets that crypto pays off by 2028
“If I stay invested and my long-term thesis is correct, my clients are going to be unbelievably well-rewarded, and this is probably a really good time to buy. I'm willing to bet, obviously, the firm and my personal assets that five years from now, we're going t…”
Marshall: US investors will struggle to profit from Chinese state-sponsored winners
“And great global companies were created, and I think more global companies will be created in sectors that the government really wants to sponsor. I think it will become ever more challenging for us to be able to benefit from that.”
Gave: Energy sector has substantial room to grow due to institutional under-allocation
“And then the other thing, of course, is the outperformance of energy. When I talk to people about it, they're like, oh yeah, I can't do anything about that. Can't invest. Which tells me great news. It's got lots of room to grow.”
Gave: Asian currencies and EM bonds will revalue against Western debt
“I think the next coming years, we're now entering a cycle of revaluation of Asian currencies, revaluation of emerging market bonds relative to those of the Western world. I think it started, and I think very few people are positioned for it.”
Gave: China will pressure Vale and Rio Tinto to accept renminbi
“Now that BHP accepts RMB, what are the odds that China is going to go back to trading in US dollars with RMB? They're not. Instead, China's going to turn to Vale and Rio Tinto and say, your buddies at BHP, they accept RMB, so if you want our business, maybe yo…”
Gave: Deglobalization will drive higher inflation, lower margins, and lower valuations
“There's no doubt we are deglobalizing. The obvious impact is higher inflation. It's higher inflation, it's lower margins, higher structural interest rates, which makes for lower valuations.”
Gave: Committee governance in China makes Taiwan invasion very unlikely
“Or do we go back to management by committee, in which case you massively crank down the level of political risk, and you make things like an invasion of Taiwan very unlikely?”
Gave: Chinese markets will rally if CCP signals a successor to Xi
“On the flip side, if the party comes out and says, okay, Xi Jinping gets another mandate for five years, but in five years' time, he's done, and it'll be these guys who will be in charge in five years, the Chinese markets will rally a lot.”
Wyden: Tighter private capital will force earlier IPOs and boost small caps
“The availability of private capital is going to be less readily available, so companies are going to go public earlier, which means the quality of the indices are going to improve, which means people are going to buy small caps more.”
Wyden: Meaningful mean reversion and inflows will return to small-cap stocks
“I can't tell you whether it's six months or 12 months or 24 months, but what I can tell you is that there will be meaningful mean reversion in small cap stocks. What has happened over the last 11 years where money's getting sucked out, money's going to go in.”
Garg: Most DeFi protocols will fail to capture defensible value
“A lot of these protocols ultimately we think will not capture that much value despite there being very useful. It's just going to be really tough for them to actually capture significant value defensively over time.”
Garg: NEAR Protocol is in the top five to survive long term
“They're easily in the top five of things that will actually persist and will survive and have a real value and real ecosystems built on top of them.”
Friedman: The US will avoid a deep recession despite persistent inflation
“I do think the inflation is going to be a little more persistent, but I'm not one who believes that we're going to have a gigantic and deep recession when you're starting with 3.6% unemployment and healthy consumer balance sheets.”
Giannini: LP Overallocation and GP Fund Expansion Will Cause an Inevitable Shakeout
“It's kind of this two forces colliding, and I think it's going to lead to a reasonable shakeout under any market scenario. I don't care if the market Flattens out here, goes up here a little. It will take a market going up 50% for some of this to ease, and tha…”
Giannini: Venture capital is entering a difficult five-year downturn
“That cyclicality has not been changed, and I suspect we're in for a fairly difficult period of time in the venture world. And unfortunately, That takes time. Look at the 2000 and I'm not at all suggesting we're going to be like 2000. I don't think we are, but …”
Giannini: Portfolios will be 50% private and 50% public within 15 years
“I believe in 10 years, 15 years, that portfolios will, by and large, be 50% private, 50% public.”
Citrone: US Core Inflation Has Peaked but Won't Fall Fast Enough
“I actually think inflation is rolling over. It's just going to take longer to come down to the acceptable levels, but it's rolling over. It's peaked in our view. The real risk on the headline is energy prices and maybe food prices. I mean, maybe headline can g…”
Turkey Is the World's Best Short; CDS Will Top 1,000 Bps
“We think maybe the best short in the world is Turkey right now. Turkey CDS has gone from about 400 over now to 800 over. We think it's going well over a thousand. The country is going to experience a traditional currency and credit crisis as we've seen in EM w…”
The Bank of Japan's Yield Curve Control Peg Cannot Hold
“In fact, I think one of the best opportunities in the world, quite frankly, is in Japan, where they have the YCC program, where they have tenure rates pegged to 25 basis points, zero to 25. There's no way that's going to hold in this environment.”
Citrone: Shorting Long-End Japanese Debt Offers 50 to 75 Basis Points
“That's one of the best fixed income shorts in the world today. He may not make a hundred basis points, but it's 50 or 75 basis points to be made in the long end on the short side there, 10 years beyond.”
Bozman: Failed Web2 marketplace models will succeed using programmable equity tokens
“This is kind of the first time a marketplace has been able to use equity. In this case, it's programmable equity. It's a token to incentivize supply side growth. And so I think there's a lot of marketplaces that haven't worked in a traditional paradigm that wi…”
Bozman: Crypto venture fund returns will drop 5x to 20x this cycle
“I tend to think if your framework for return expectations is based on funds in that last cycle, I think a lot of LPs are going to be disappointed. And I think there's a few things that drive that one is. Everything has been repriced five, 10, 20 X upwards sinc…”
Bozman: Compound's long-term market capitalization will significantly exceed $1.5 billion
“Compound right now, you can buy for about one or 1.5 billion on the open market. Long run, it's probably a lot more than that.”
Dixon: Web3 services will not have dominant network effects locking users in
“In the case of Web three, the network is owned by the community yet. I think you'll have big services. We'll hopefully invest in some of them, but they won't have the dominant network effects that lock you in and users will have a choice. Users can exit.”
Forman: Banks, fintechs, and institutions will be DeFi's largest consumers
“And the largest consumers of DeFi will be banks, will be fintech companies, and will be institutions.”
Forman: Permissioned DeFi will be magnitudes larger than permissionless DeFi
“So for all those reasons, I still think permission DeFi is incredibly interesting, incredibly powerful, and probably will be Orders of magnitude larger than the DeFi that we know today.”
Forman: Over 98% to 99% of current DAOs will not survive
“I suspect that 98, 99% plus of the blockchain applications, the DAOs that exist today, are not going to be around long term.”
McKeon: 99% of all crypto assets could be NFTs long-term
“We think there's a very plausible scenario where 99% of all crypto assets are NFTs in the longer run, especially as minting costs come down into the few cents or perhaps fraction of a cent.”
McKeon: Yuga Labs could become the Web3 version of Disney
“You could see Yuga basically becoming a web three version of Disney, and all of it is going to trace back to these holders of the original board eight pictures.”
McKeon: Investment DAOs will displace a portion of traditional VC over time
“The ones we've been talking about are investment DAOs, and those really mimic a venture capital fund, and in fact, we think will displace a portion of venture capital over time.”
McKeon: Digital wallets will become as ubiquitous as email addresses
“I don't know if it's five years or nine years or 13 years, but I do know that our north star at the fund is that everybody is going to have a digital wallet. They are going to be as ubiquitous as email addresses. It's gonna be the way you receive your paycheck…”
Libby: Late-stage investors out-earning founders at exit will fundamentally change
“A private equity firm or a growth equity firm coming into a series C or D sitting at the top of the caps table with liquidity preferences and all these downside protections, and they're ultimately earning more than the founders at exit. To me, it seems like th…”
Gave: EM wealth will stay local, strengthening domestic currencies and equities
“From now on, I think emerging markets, people will keep their money in emerging markets, which should make for much stronger currencies, domestic blue markets”
Gave: Money will move from the West to hubs like Dubai and Singapore
“The most obvious one for me is you're going to have to have the birth of new financial centers, which might be Hong Kong, might be Singapore, might be Dubai, but money will be starting to move away from Western world.”
Gave: Soaring Food and Energy Prices Will Drive Middle East Refugee Crisis
“Soon enough, you're going to get a refugee crisis coming in. From North Africa and the Middle East, if only because of soaring food prices and soaring energy prices, and the extremely likely political instability that high food prices and high energy prices te…”
Gave: Era of Momentum and Carry Trade Investing Is Over
“What I would like to suggest to you is that the era of the momentum investor and the era of the carry trade investor are now done. We've entered the period of the return to the mean investor.”
Creditor-on-creditor violence and priming transactions will increase in coming years
“And this creditor on creditor violence is a rising trend that I don't see going away anytime soon. Until the creditor groups start to write tighter credit agreements, or the courts define very narrow guidelines around how these credit agreements can be interpr…”