Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bozman: Failed Web2 marketplace models will succeed using programmable equity tokens
“This is kind of the first time a marketplace has been able to use equity. In this case, it's programmable equity. It's a token to incentivize supply side growth. And so I think there's a lot of marketplaces that haven't worked in a traditional paradigm that wi…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2027
Bozman: Crypto venture fund returns will drop 5x to 20x this cycle
“I tend to think if your framework for return expectations is based on funds in that last cycle, I think a lot of LPs are going to be disappointed. And I think there's a few things that drive that one is. Everything has been repriced five, 10, 20 X upwards sinc…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2027
Bozman: Compound's long-term market capitalization will significantly exceed $1.5 billion
“Compound right now, you can buy for about one or 1.5 billion on the open market. Long run, it's probably a lot more than that.”
Insight
Bozman: Incremental open-source improvements lack defensibility against incumbent DeFi protocols
“And so generally our view is kind of, okay, well, like if this actually is an improvement, compound could just do this.”
Opinion
Bozman: Much of DeFi has been Ponzi games offering unsustainable yields
“I think a lot of DeFi has kind of been these like Ponzi games where, you know, you have these really high yields and this tends to be kind of what gets press attention.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bozman: Stablecoin yield markets will be 1,000x larger than degen DeFi
“Hey, you can earn 15 to 20% yield on your dollar-denominated stablecoins. That's not gonna get retail crypto traders jumping out of bed, but, like, long term, I think that market is a thousand X bigger than it is for eGens.”
Opinion
Bozman: Mega crypto funds have priced themselves out of early-stage deals
“I think now, maybe it wasn't obvious when we raised the first fund, but structurally, every fund has kind of gotten really big and almost priced themselves out of the earliest stages of the market.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bozman: Liquid markets will reject $100M valuations for pre-launch blockchain games
“I don't think the liquid markets will support that. I think a lot of people will lose a lot of money in the short term.”
Insight
Bozman: Superior technology cannot dislodge DeFi protocols with established narrative dominance
“We've seen a lot of More efficient versions of a lot of these DeFi protocols and very few of them have gone anywhere because once these teams have a narrative, once they have people talking about them on Twitter, it's just very hard to like come in and break o…”
Opinion
Bozman: Complex crypto jargon usually indicates someone is full of BS
“I think a lot of people in the crypto love to reinvent the wheel and love to describe these things in just like pretty complex language. And it's generally necessary. And I think a pretty good sign that someone's like full of BS.”
Insight
Bozman: VCs immediately question deals forwarded by investors who passed
“If someone passed on an investment and it sent it to me, I would say, why did you pass on this? And why are you sending it to me if you did?”
Insight
Bozman: Controlling primary token sales positions platforms upstream of wallets
“The vision always was, if you start with like the primary offering, you're kind of like upstream from everyone else. So for example, once you do the token sale, where are those tokens going to go? You're actually ahead of any other wallet. It's much easier for…”
Insight
Bozman: Few crypto investors possess operational capacity to navigate Web3 growth
“And so it became more and more clear to me that all of the growth problems of web three are More and more important as like a lot of these kind of hard technical scalability problems got solved and very few investors really seem to have this capacity to help t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bozman: Crypto markets will continue to experience speculative bubble cycles
“These markets have historically looked like bubbles, and I think they'll continue to be, although long term, I think the trajectory is going in the right direction.”
Disclosure
Lattice Capital rejects crypto founders seeking three-to-six-month token lockups
“One, like a really short lockup period or something where like the team is going to have tokens liquid in three or six months. We are not traders. We want to underwrite these investments for a multi-year period. And so it's just not something we do teams witho…”
Assertion Supported
Bozman: Alameda Research borrowed capital through Maple Finance's institutional lending pools
“And then those money managers lend money out to institutional clients. So large crypto exchanges and trading firms like Alameda Research all borrowed there.”
Assertion Supported
Bozman: OpenSea commanded an 80% market share of the NFT sector
“And it's, I think now they have something like 80% market share.”
Disclosure
Bozman: Lattice Capital applies a venture lens and aims to never sell
“We look at these through a venture lens. We kind of never want to sell anything.”
Assertion Supported
Bozman: DeFi seed valuations surged from $5M in 2019 to $50M+
“There were DeFi seed rounds that got done at like five million dollar network valuations in 2019. Today, that would be 50 and maybe higher.”
Insight
Bozman: Web2 growth assumptions break in Web3 due to pseudonymous users
“So every growth assumption that web two businesses have used to grow is breaks in web three.”
Insight
Bozman: Non-custodial wallets own the primary customer relationship in crypto ecosystems
“You kind of think about who owns the customer relationship in crypto and it's generally wallets.”
Assertion Supported
Bozman: MetaMask controls the user interface for 80% of Ethereum users
“MetaMask is probably, they control the user interface for 80% of people interacting with Ethereum.”
Assertion Supported
Bozman: Filecoin's 2017 token sale had 2,000 to 3,000 public investors
“Filecoin, which was the biggest token sale of that era and was like the first one Coinless did, had, I want to say two to 3000 investors and everything was public, right? From like the technology to the token economics to like the valuation.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bozman: OpenSea was not a breakout hit for two years post-seed
“OpenSea was like not a breakout hit for at least two years after they raised a seed round.”
