public markets

also referred to as: public market

46 statements across 42 episodes · 21 bullish · 12 bearish · 37 people on the record · first statement Jul 3, 2017 by Chris Douvos · across every show →

Everything said about public markets, oldest first

Jul 3, 2017 bearish
Opinion
Private Startups Are Valued Higher Than They Would Be in Public Markets
“End buyers, i.e. The acquirers or public markets, haven't, you know, been as forceful with enforcing price discipline, and so you have this inversion where, like, public, private companies are worth much more than they'd be worth in the public markets.”
Chris Douvos Jul 3, 2017 ▶ 49:38 Chris Douvos – Venture Capital's Super LP (Capital Allocators, EP.14)
Dec 3, 2018 positive
Insight
Bushey: Public small-caps trade at a 50% discount to PE multiples
“But in the public markets, especially in months like we just had in October, you're able to buy really great long-term outcomes for half off of a multiple you'd be willing to pay for in the private markets.”
Tom Bushey Dec 3, 2018 ▶ 18:41 Tom Bushey – Launching a Hedge Fund (Capital Allocators EP.78)
Feb 11, 2019 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Private Equity Premium Over Public Markets Compressed to 150 Bps
“Back when I started in private equity in the nineties, you could get 500 over the public markets. Then it narrowed to about 300. And now the debate today is at one 50 net of cost.”
Chris Ailman Feb 11, 2019 ▶ 44:48 Chris Ailman – CalSTRS' Venerable CIO (Capital Allocators, EP.86)
Apr 29, 2019
Insight
Matt Levine: Growth Capital Has Shifted From Public to Private Markets
“It seems like the public markets have become more passive, more of the sort of investing decisions and like providing capital to companies that are growing is occurring in the private markets while the public markets are for mature companies to kind of harvest…”
Matt Levine Apr 29, 2019 ▶ 31:01 Matt Levine – Money Stuff (Capital Allocators, EP.97)
May 6, 2019 bullish
Disclosure
Private equity target is 400 basis points over public markets net
“Our expected return for private equity is about 400 basis points over the long-term expected return of the public markets. So 10 real.”
Jon Hirtle May 6, 2019 ▶ 46:30 Jon Hirtle – The Pioneer of OCIO (Capital Allocators, EP.98)
Jun 10, 2019 positive
Insight
O'Shaughnessy: 4x Free Cash Flow Signals Distress in Public Equities, Not Private
“And, you know, when he first told me that he was buying businesses at a little bit north of four times free cashflow, you know, I kind of laughed. I thought, okay, like, so they're going out of business in three years. I mean, in the public markets, that multi…”
Patrick O'Shaughnessy Jun 10, 2019 ▶ 1:00:51 Patrick O'Shaughnessy – O'Shaughnessy Asset Management (First Meeting, EP.01)
Aug 26, 2019 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ries: LTSE listings guarantee full public market liquidity
“Because we're a stock exchange, we're integrated with the financial system to such a degree that companies that list with us can be guaranteed the same access to the full liquidity of the public markets.”
Eric Ries Aug 26, 2019 ▶ 24:24 Eric Ries – Lean Start-Ups and the Long-Term Stock Exchange (Capital Allocators, EP.107)
Sep 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Mega-Rounds Transfer Asset Appreciation From Public to Private Markets
“I think really most of this is really just a wealth transfer of appreciation from the public markets into the private markets, and many of these people have lower costs of capital, right?”
Scott Kupor Sep 2, 2019 ▶ 46:54 Scott Kupor - Andreessen Horowitz (First Meeting EP.07)
Dec 28, 2020 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Demand for new asset management products shrinks with each passing year
“Industry demand for new products, especially in public markets, is shrinking with each passing year.”
Ted Seides Dec 28, 2020 ▶ 7:53 Ted Seides - Capital Allocators Year in Review (Capital Allocators, EP.170)
Jul 15, 2021 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Casdin: 90% of life science stock volatility is macro-driven
“When volatility hits in the public markets, I would say in my experience over the last decade in this fund, nine out of 10 times, it has been because of something unrelated to our industry.”
Eli Casdin Jul 15, 2021 ▶ 43:07 Eli Casdin – Casdin Capital (Manager Meetings, EP.02)
Sep 20, 2021 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ellis: Man Group launches a new public market vehicle daily
“We do a new vehicle basically every day in public markets. So a new fund or a new SMA for someone or a new version of a fund in a different jurisdiction. And we basically bang one out a day.”
Luke Ellis Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 50:05 Luke Ellis – The Man Behind The Man Group (Capital Allocators, EP.214)
Sep 27, 2021 bullish
Opinion
Whalen: Private markets are less risky than public equities
“I would argue it's less risky than the public markets. Like, if you asked me to put another dollar today, In the public markets or with our private managers, and I love our public managers, but it would definitely be in the private markets.”
Casey Whalen Sep 27, 2021 ▶ 15:29 Friends Reunion – Five Allocators Riff on Investing (Capital Allocators, EP.215)
Oct 7, 2021 bearish
Insight
Brolin: Public markets have no appetite for slow-growing, unprofitable companies
“There really is no market for a slow growing or declining unprofitable company.”
John Brolin Oct 7, 2021 ▶ 27:48 Jonathan Brolin – Edenbrook Capital (Manager Meetings, EP.14)
Oct 28, 2021 neutral
Disclosure
Kwatra launched firm after seeing no other women of color in space
“When I thought about it, I couldn't think of one other investor who was a woman doing exactly what I was doing. Nobody in the public markets that looked like me, and I said, it's about time that we have a few more of us.”
Rashmi Kwatra Oct 28, 2021 ▶ 35:08 Rashmi Kwatra – Sixteenth Street Capital (Manager Meetings, EP.17)
Nov 8, 2021 neutral
Insight
Visser: Computers have eliminated price and time discrepancies in markets
“Well, computers have arbed out first price discrepancies, but they've also arbed out now time discrepancies. Meaning when you find an idea and you're like, I found it, nobody's in it. Well, no computers are pretty good at using data to find the same idea.”
Jordi Visser Nov 8, 2021 ▶ 55:59 Jordi Visser – Analytics and AQ at Weiss (Capital Allocators, EP.221)
Feb 14, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Kayden: Public market companies are much cheaper than private venture valuations
“Obviously right now we're experiencing a pretty dramatic correction in the public market where I think the public market companies are much cheaper than what we're seeing done in the private market”
Joelle Kayden Feb 14, 2022 ▶ 23:19 Joelle Kayden – Canvassing the Landscape at Accolade Partners, Venture is Eating the Investment World 7 (Capital Allocators, EP.235)
Apr 11, 2022 neutral
Insight
Venture capital differs from traditional finance by only targeting tail events
“Rather than being accused of ignoring tail events, as people in public markets are sometimes accused, these people at venture capital partnerships only care about tail events. It's all about that extreme disruptive, 10 X, 20 X Outlier. And the middle of the di…”
Sebastian Mallaby Apr 11, 2022 ▶ 8:01 Sebastian Mallaby – The Making of the New Future in Venture, Venture is Eating the Investment World 14 (Capital Allocators, EP.245)
Jul 18, 2022 positive
Opinion
Giannini: The 2008 financial crisis was private equity's best event
“That is when, to me, private equity, private markets established themselves. It was the greatest thing that happened to the industry. And I know people will go, that asshole, what's he saying that for such a horrible time. But it's because at that point, every…”
Mario Giannini Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 9:33 Mario Giannini – View from the Top of Private Equity at Hamilton Lane (Capital Allocators, EP.262)
Jan 9, 2023 bearish
Insight
Having a long duration capital advantage does not play in public markets
“If duration's our advantage, it doesn't really play in public markets.”
Gregg Lemkau Jan 9, 2023 ▶ 37:20 Gregg Lemkau - The Evolution of MSD (Capital Allocators, EP.291)
Feb 27, 2023 bearish
Prediction Held up
Kayden: Later-stage venture is most vulnerable to market correction
“We don't tend to like larger funds, and we don't like later stage investing, largely because we think that is an area that is sort of more correlated to the public markets, you know, and an arbitrage opportunity, and so at a period of Massive, great inflation.…”
Joelle Kayden Feb 27, 2023 ▶ 18:43 Venture Capital Panel – Beezer Clarkson, Chris Douvos, and Joelle Kayden (Capital Allocators, EP.299)
Apr 17, 2023 bullish
Insight
Giannini: PE Outperforms Public Markets Due to Superior Corporate Governance
“Private equity outperforms because it's a better form of governance, period. I mean, I get the leverage and I get all that other crap, but it is a better form of governance. You'd much rather be private than public in terms of your ability to do things.”
Mario Giannini Apr 17, 2023 ▶ 1:09:00 Mario Giannini & John Toomey – Private Equity Panel (Capital Allocators EP.309)
Jul 24, 2023 bullish
Insight
Private Markets Take Share From Public Markets During Economic Downturns
“The privates market overall consolidates share away from the public markets during downturns.”
Kipp deVeer Jul 24, 2023 ▶ 20:43 Kipp deVeer – The World of Private Credit at Ares (EP.329)
Jan 1, 2024 bullish
Insight
Housel: Private Markets' Advantage Is Illiquidity Forcing Good Investor Behavior
“And I think if there is a structural advantage to private markets advantage over public, it tends to be that the lack of liquidity is forcing a good level of behavior that I think is a wonderful thing.”
Morgan Housel Jan 1, 2024 ▶ 32:03 Morgan Housel – Same as Ever (EP.359)
Feb 19, 2024 neutral
Insight
Mauboussin: Public equity returns exhibit the same power law as venture capital
“We associate power laws with venture, but if you let it play out in public markets, it's also the exact same power law. It's a power of compounding is the key insight.”
Michael Mauboussin Feb 19, 2024 ▶ 33:30 Michael Mauboussin - Pattern Recognition and Public Markets (EP.370)
Apr 29, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Amherst CIO Johnson views public biotech as an interesting investment opportunity
“I think biotech is a really interesting place to be investing in the public markets right now.”
Letitia Johnson Apr 29, 2024 ▶ 58:04 Letitia Johnson - Concentrated and Long-Term at Amherst College (EP.382)
May 23, 2024 bearish
Assertion Supported
Tannenbaum: Indian private markets returned 35 cents per dollar since 2000
“Of every dollar invested since 2000, something like 35 cents has come back, and I'm sure the industry will come good, but as I was sort of looking over the proverbial wall at other asset classes, it's not exactly apples to apples comparison, but for example, i…”
Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 18:56 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)
Jun 10, 2024 positive
Insight
PE buyers get a discount acquiring companies without incumbent management
“In the public markets, Ted, you pay a premium to put your own management teams in. In the private market, you get a discount.”
Graham Weaver Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 27:58 Graham Weaver – People-Driven Private Equity at Alpine (EP.391)
Jun 17, 2024 positive
Assertion Contradicted
PE multiples held steady at 13.5x to 14.5x EBITDA since 2021
“Public markets have gone from 13 and a half times to 21 and a half times LTM EBITDA. Private equity has stayed consistently between 13 and a half to 14 and a half times.”
Yann Robard Jun 17, 2024 ▶ 27:48 Yann Robard - Liquidity Solutions for Private Capital at Dawson (EP.392)
Jul 22, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Small: Public markets exhibit far crazier mispricings than private equity
“We've seen crazier prices on both sides by far in the public markets than I think you tend to see in the private markets.”
Rob Small Jul 22, 2024 ▶ 47:34 Rob Small and Anil Seetharam - Public Equity Adjacent to Private Equity at Stockbridge (EP.397)
Jul 22, 2024
Insight
Seetharam: Public investing gives less data than PE but no time constraints
“In the private equity business, the way it works is you have access to a data room. And you have a certain amount of time to understand as much as you can about a company with full access to the information and the management team. So if you were to use an ana…”
Anil Seetharam Jul 22, 2024 ▶ 14:56 Rob Small and Anil Seetharam - Public Equity Adjacent to Private Equity at Stockbridge (EP.397)
Sep 9, 2024
Insight
Private market valuation lags make portfolios look artificially diversified
“There's one type of smoothing in that evaluations don't occur as regularly as you do in the public market. The other thing that occurs is everything's lagged as well. So both of those things are going to show you to be more diversified than you actually are.”
Jace Auby Sep 9, 2024 ▶ 18:34 Jase Auby - Risk, Size, and Talent at Texas Teachers (EP.404)
Nov 25, 2024 bullish
Disclosure
Bank: GEM Targets 3x Net Return and 5-7% Public Outperformance for PE
“Do they have a credible path to generating a three X net return? That's our bogey for private markets. We expect private equity in particular to deliver five to seven percent ahead of public markets over time.”
Matt Bank Nov 25, 2024 ▶ 40:10 Matt Bank - "GEMs" of Risk, Asset Allocation, and Manager Selection (EP.419)
Jun 2, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
deVeer: Ares 20-year charge-offs beat public market default rates
“If you look at our historical charge-offs versus defaults in the public markets, they're just better over a twenty-year period because of that control”
Kipp deVeer Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 25:01 Kipp deVeer – Scaling for Private Wealth Globally in Credit (Private Wealth 5, EP.449)
Jun 30, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Whelan: Operationally-focused private equity is inherently less risky than public markets
“I tell my clients at a certain size of wealth, I view what we're doing in the private space as inherently less risky than the public markets. Because if we can back smaller back groups that have depth on the operational side and the financial side, you're actu…”
Casey Whalen Jun 30, 2025 ▶ 17:59 Friends Reunion 3 – Five Allocators Riff on Investing (EP.454)
Sep 8, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Seides: Public markets alone no longer provide a globally diversified portfolio
“It's not clear that you can get the globally diversified portfolio of assets just in the public markets the way you definitely could 25 years ago.”
Ted Seides Sep 8, 2025 ▶ 20:14 Ted on Alt Goes Mainstream (EP.458)
Sep 8, 2025 positive
Insight
Seides: Private equity has more return persistence than public markets
“There is more persistence in private equity than in the public markets.”
Ted Seides Sep 8, 2025 ▶ 10:56 Ted on Alt Goes Mainstream (EP.458)
Oct 9, 2025
Assertion Supported
Mogelof: Defined Contribution assets are virtually entirely in public markets
“There is very little money in DC today that's in alternatives or private markets. Small amounts, very bespoke plans, but virtually all of the allocations today are sitting in public markets.”
Eric Mogelof Oct 9, 2025 ▶ 12:20 Understanding the 401(k) Market – Eric Mogelof, KKR (EP.464)
Oct 13, 2025 bearish
Disclosure
CPPIB Deliberately Holds Less AI Exposure Than Broad Public Market Benchmarks
“On the investing side, we obviously have exposure in the portfolio. We have invested in a lot of the big AI companies and we have exposure to them. Net though, we don't have as much AI exposure as the broader public markets. And that's a challenge from a relat…”
John Graham Oct 13, 2025 ▶ 48:46 John Graham – Evolution of the Canadian Model at CPPIB (EP.465)
Nov 24, 2025 negative
Insight
Kelly: Indexing and ETFs Killed Traditional Hedge Fund Information Edges
“As time went on, as we saw through the 2000, the passive indexation and ETFs and the capital markets changes in the public market rendered some of those advantages obsolete.”
Mike Kelly Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 13:47 Michael Kelly – Democratizing Access to the Middle Market at Future Standard (EP.473)
Dec 1, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Khoury: 90% of US Real Estate Is Privately Owned
“90% of real estate in this country is owned outside of the public market. So you've got 10% of the market that trades publicly.”
John Khoury Dec 1, 2025 ▶ 11:19 John Khoury – Asymmetry and Opportunity in Public Real Estate at Long Pond (EP.474)
Dec 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Seides: Unlocked Private Market Capital Will Flow Back Into Public Equities
“The biggest impact of that over the next couple of years is that when private markets unlock for liquidity, the first wave of that money from the institutional market is going to go back to the public markets. It's not going to get recycled in the private mark…”
Ted Seides Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 20:28 Year in Review 2025 (EP.478)
Dec 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Seides: Public Market Active Managers Poised for Outperformance
“I think people will be talking about public markets and the potential for outperformance from active managers because you're teed up pretty well to have a good period of time for active managers.”
Ted Seides Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 25:31 Year in Review 2025 (EP.478)
Jan 26, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
MacDonald: Private markets historically beat public markets by 580 bps over 10-year periods
“From a math standpoint, if you look back over any 10 year rolling period, Privates have performed publics by 580 basis points. Over three-year rolling periods, 500 basis points. This last three years is one of the rare three-year cycles that hasn't.”
Lane MacDonald Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 50:29 Lane MacDonald – Teamwork, Alignment, and Investing at the Highest Levels at SCS (EP.483)
Apr 6, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Public Markets May Offer More Alpha Than Private Equity Due to Indexing
“Given the predominance of indexing in public markets and that talent vacuum into another space, there might be a lot more alpha in public markets.”
Bruce MacDonald Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 55:44 Bruce MacDonald – The Playbook for Building a Mid-Sized Endowment from Scratch (EP.495)
Jun 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Csicsko: Public equities have vastly outperformed broad private markets recently
“You pair that with a public market that's vastly outperformed, the broad private market measured on, say, a Cambridge index level, and it's causing most people I know to have very difficult conversations around what is the future path of private allocation in …”
Nicholas (Nick) Csicsko Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 55:44 Senior Decision Makers: Nicholas Csicsko, Trinity Wall Street (EP.508)
Jun 29, 2026 neutral
Insight
Private market allocations are not essential without consistent public outperformance
“We do discuss and say that privates are not essential. Meaning we should choose to have them because of the return we believe they will deliver over time. And that return needs to be in excess of what's offered in public markets.”
Nicholas (Nick) Csicsko Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 56:57 Senior Decision Makers: Nicholas Csicsko, Trinity Wall Street (EP.508)
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