Fed

“But absent intervention from the Fed or the Treasury, which I have a 95% confidence won't happen, we're gonna have Can you continuously rising stream of restructurings at the municipal level over the next few years?”

“And they are going to be slow and gradual for a long time to come, barring a tremendous exogenous shock.”

“We're going to have interest rates at very low levels. We're probably going to have some element of yield curve control in the United States. I don't know yet, but some element of asset purchases are going to be semi-permanent from the Fed, which probably serv…”

“What the Fed is doing and the Treasury is they're saying, let's just make sure that no one goes broke, and let's make sure that none of this capital gets destroyed, and so I don't see how that doesn't lead to a long period of really low returns.”

“Don't fight the Fed if you're a short-term player, but if you're a long-term player, you have to be prepared to fight the Fed on occasions.”

“Had the Fed not stepped in, you probably would have seen the true aftermath of what Can happen with concentrated investments in the same kind of relationships in the same kind of data.”

“With interest rates being so low and all risk assets being anchored to a zero bound, everybody just assumed that you could just think about business quality because everything went up. Like stocks were missing numbers and going up because the most important in…”

“This is the first Fed tightening cycle in my lifetime where emerging market bonds are crushing U.S. Treasuries, German bonds, JGBs.”

“If we see even moderate declines in EBITDA over the course of the next few quarters with the fed at five percent and gosh, six percent would be a real challenge. We think a massive amount of that opportunity set is going to be open and subject to potential dow…”

“I will guarantee you the focus of the Fed is not inflation, but is the recession.”

“I do think the Fed is probably at the end of the tightening cycle, but it's been a very sharp, short move. I think it's going to result in bankruptcies, credit events. So I think there will be higher default rates, and I'm not sure that's fully reflected in co…”

“Nothing's going to change until the Fed cuts rates, 400 basis points.”

“So successful has this bailout been so generous That they're probably going to end up taking the Fed funds rate to a level that none of them actually imagined when they started 2023.”

“Something that's still little commented on today is that the Fed provided a bridge loan to the tune of two hundred and twelve billion dollars to the FDIC's bad bank.”

“The point here is that so successful has the Fed's backstop of regional banks and so forth been That it has not only prevented the accelerating tightening of credit we all expected after Silicon Valley Bank, it's actually incentivized banks to be calm, be meas…”

“Had that rescue not happened when it did, you might see very, very different numbers out of private equity.”

“Today, because CLO BBs are floating rate, and because the Fed has hiked so much, we're getting yields in the 12% plus area, and defaults have been really, really minimal.”