The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,103 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 17 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Trump states he will close the Department of Education early in administration
“One other thing I'll be doing very early in the administration is closing up the Department of Education in Washington, D.C., And sending all education and education work and needs back to the states. We want them to run the education of our children.”
Gurley: US proprietary AI will likely lose its lead over Chinese open-source AI
“I think the odds that, that, you know,
The US with two, you know, proprietary models can stay ahead of China with 10 open source ones is very low.”
Daymond John: AI disruption will trigger civil war in the US
“Because AI is going to turn this country into a civil war. Because when the have-nots don't have anything, they're coming after us.”
Gary Vaynerchuk predicts some people's grandchildren will marry AI robots
“Well, I've gone pretty viral lately because I, my craziest prediction is that most people's grandchildren will marry an AI robot. Some of them will, not everyone's going to”
Gabbard: DNC leadership rigged the 2016 primary for Hillary Clinton
“The party leadership was heavily waiting and tilting the scales and essentially rigging the primary for Hillary Clinton, much in the same manner that we have seen occur in this 2024 election for Joe Biden”
Woods saved a company $300M in 10 minutes using ChatGPT interviews
“I saved one company, three hundred million dollars in 10 minutes with ChatGPT. Cause I knew how to get it to ask me the right questions.”
Hammer: Ramsey's 6-7% Retirement Withdrawal Rule Is Dangerous
“They suggest you can withdraw six to seven percent a year. And just live off of it forever. Cause it averages 10% a year, but it makes no sense. Like no financial model agrees with that. You, four percent has a 95% chance of completion. Even four percent is no…”
Gladwell: Remote workers lacking social capital will be laid off first
“When people stop, stop hiring and start firing, we're going to find out who gets fired first. And if you don't have any, if you're not built up any kind of face time or any kind of social capital in your organization, you're, you, it's much easier for you to b…”
Sanchez: US Unemployment Is Racing Toward 10% or 20%
“I think America is racing towards a 10% unemployment rate, maybe 20.”
Gurley: Anthropic funds more lobbyists advocating for AI regulation than anyone else
“No one's funding more lobbyists begging for AI regulation than Anthropic themselves.”
Liemandt: AI tutoring propels students to top 1% in two hours daily
“So in two hours a day, they sit down for two hours. They learn more than twice as much as if they sat in class. And so they're learning so fast. It doesn't matter where they come in. They can come in, you know, top 25%, bottom 25%. They are going to get to top…”
Lyon: Evidence Does Not Support Claims That Seed Oils Derange Metabolism
“The evidence doesn't support that seed oils are causing the derangement that people are saying.”
McCord: Having sex with robots will weaken human capacity for democracy
“The other thing is having sex with robots is going to make us worse at democracy.”
Freitas: Young men will eventually revolt against anti-masculinity societal narratives
“Young men are going to revolt. You cannot tell men that every aspect of their masculinity is bad and toxic and evil, and they're responsible for all the world's ills. And expect to get away with that longterm because they're the ones that fight the wars, polic…”
Ladjevardian: Traditional software engineering will cease to exist due to AI
“I think actually software engineering in the way it is today, I think is, is not going to be a thing because you already have things like lovable and these other companies where you can generate a website or app just in like a few seconds.”
Ladjevardian: AI will replace big management consulting firms like McKinsey
“Consulting a hundred percent like McKinsey all of those big consulting firms. I don't know how they are thinking about things internally, but. You know, doing research and creating a report and creating a PowerPoint deck is almost like the easiest thing you ca…”
Dr. Moore: Excessive carnivore diets can induce insulin resistance
“You can over carnivore yourself into insulin resistance. High levels of arachidonic acid can send you into insulin resistance as well.”
Dr. Moore: Five obese online friends exponentially increases your obesity risk
“They showed in one study that if you have even five friends on the internet, just internet, Proximity, not in real person who are struggling with obesity, your chances of becoming obese are exponentially higher.”
Dr. Moore: IVF hormonal treatments damage metabolic health and reduce fertility
“That's the problem, is that hormonal load that these women go through is just wreaking havoc on their metabolic health, so they're becoming less and less and less It's fertile through the process of IVF.”
Dr. Moore: Eli Lilly directly reported doctors' social media accounts
“And when she appealed. She was allowed to find out who reported her, and it was Eli Lilly, and it was the day after my account went down.”
Brooks: Dark Triad personalities are disproportionately social activists
“There's a really interesting papers that we've seen recently, the dark triads, they're disproportionately social activists.”
Brooks: Anonymous internet posters are overwhelmingly likely Dark Triad personalities
“Do you like to post anonymously on the internet? Because the answer is yes, you're overwhelmingly likely to be talking to a dark triad. You're overwhelmingly likely to be talking to a pathological personality, somebody who really likes to stir up trouble and h…”
Kennedy: Hundreds remain missing in North Carolina and Tennessee disaster zone unreported
“The number of missing is, is still in the hundreds and again, not being reported.”
Kennedy: FEMA personnel fully booked one of the only powered local hotels
“I go to the only hotel where there's two in the town that had power, and it was completely booked up with federal FEMA personnel.”
Saladino: Tufts Food Compass ranked Cheerios and Froot Loops above ground beef
“Darius Mazzafarian, the same guy who gifted us with the food compass guidelines that told us that Froot Loops and Cheerios were healthier than ground beef and eggs.”
Saladino: Consumed animal organs biologically target and support corresponding human organs
“What you see is there's a lot of evidence that Oregon's Do support the corresponding organ in humans, which really breaks the mind of a traditionally trained doctor like myself. So when you give we can take an embryo, for instance, and you put a little bit of …”
Israetel: DNA editing for physical fitness will be inevitable by late 2030s
“Why don't we just change the DNA so that our DNA creates a beautiful body for us in the probably late 20 thirties. That's going to be almost inevitable.”
Galloway: Foreign Buyers Will Abandon US Treasury Auctions, Spiking Rates
“At some point, the Chinese or whoever aren't going to show up for one of our treasury auctions, and interest rates are going to skyrocket, and you're going to have, you know, shit's going to get real pretty fast.”
Lonsdale: Harris-Warren price gouging proposal covers 23,000 large companies
“Well, if you look at the price gouging law that Kamala Harris and Senator Warren and all these people on the very extreme left were putting forward, it's actually something that applies to about 23,000 big companies, and it would give them a lot of arbitrary p…”
Lonsdale: US federal government abandoned merit-based testing 45 years ago
“So this was basically a form of DEI. It's like proto-DEI in the late seventies, and it was under Jimmy Carter's administration, and then eventually the courts pushed it and finalized it in the early eighties. So for 45 years, We haven't had merit-based tests i…”
Sanchez: Balaji Srinivasan predicts 70% chance of economic crisis within two years
“His point here was, I'm concerned about the chance of a crisis, and so Balaji thinks there's a 10% chance of a crisis happening soon, a 70% chance in the next two years, which is scary because he's very smart.”
Dr. Lyon: Chronic metabolic diseases begin decades earlier in skeletal muscle
“Is all the issues that we are seeing, obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer's, is this all a fat problem? No. It begins in skeletal muscle first. Decades before.”
Gabbard: Democratic colleagues warned endorsing Sanders placed me on Clinton's blacklist
“Some of my Democratic colleagues basically telling me, like, you just committed political suicide. Hillary Clinton is going to be president. That is going to happen, and you will be persona non grata to that her administration. You will not get a single penny …”
Gabbard: Google shut down my campaign AdSense during 2020 debate peak
“I ended up being the most searched candidate of the night, that debate night, which is what I had hoped for, and, ah, right at that time of peak interest, Google shut down our AdSense account with no warning, no explanation, no ability.”
Gabbard: Studies show Gmail sends most Republican campaign emails to spam
“Studies are done how Google in particular, but essentially big tech, Has been proven to divert the vast majority of, you know, if you're a Republican running for office and you're sending out a, you know, a bulk email, most of those emails for conservatives Re…”
Gabbard: The U.S. goal in Ukraine is regime change to remove Putin
“The goal of the U.S. Government at the heart of this is another regime change war. They want to get rid of Putin, and that's not a secret. Some of the highest leaders, you know, Secretary Austin Secretary of State Blinken, others within the White House have ma…”
Johnson: Humans will eventually no longer be the architects of intelligence
“I can't imagine a situation where we humans are still the architects of intelligence in some duration of time.”
Sexton: Infidelity plays a role in 70% to 80% of divorces
“I would be speculating, because it's hard to measure those things. I would say close to 70 to 80%. Where there's some, where infidelity played some part, in some degree.”
Godin: Authors can buy a NYT bestseller spot for $65,000
“Because I can tell you how to do it for 65,000 dollars. There are people who have to Books on there. Paid money to game their way onto it.”
Herjavec: 4,400 people became millionaires on SpaceX's public listing day
“Like SpaceX went public, 4400 people became millionaires on that day. 400 people became deca-millionaires.”
Hammer got a guest fired for using a racial slur
“I called his boss in the post show and got him fired.”
Hammer: Social Security Faces a 25% Cut Within Five Years
“Social security about to get a 25% cut in literally five years.”
Sanchez: Remote human assistants deliver higher ROI than AI for her company
“I just told my team today that we found that hiring a remote assistant has a better ROI for my company than using AI.”
Jorgenson: Tesla and SpaceX are becoming the biggest companies on Earth
“To do both of these, like, generation-defining, singular companies that were on nobody's radar, that are now, I think, on the way to being the biggest companies on Earth.”
Jorgenson: Musk solved a months-long Starship bottleneck in an overnight surge
“They'd spent months trying to, like, weld a dome for Starship that fit over the, this, like stainless steel cone that was gonna go over the top of the rocket, and they hadn't gotten it done for months, and he just showed up at the site, was like, we're gonna h…”
Jorgenson: Musk escalates status updates to hourly 24/7 emails during bottlenecks
“The status updates escalate with how serious the bottleneck is. So weekly cadence for, you know, maybe a normal bottleneck. It'll go to daily, like a daily, 24 hour sync on whatever the bottleneck is to run the algorithm on it. For one week, one guy, I don't k…”
Sanchez: Peter Thiel rejected Replit, saying it would never be big
“I remember when I told Peter Thiel that he should invest in the company and Peter said, it's never going to be a big company. This vibe coding thing is sort of ridiculous. And he put it in an email”
McDonald: MIT study shows AI essay writing reduces brain activation
“It's kind of new, but it's a study out of MIT that's shown that, okay, they had people Use AI versus Google versus nothing to write essays, and what they found was that over time it led people that used AI specifically like less engagement in their brain, less…”