The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5,477 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 167 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
LeCun: Open source AI innovates faster than proprietary models can match
“Open source progress is faster and you know, a lot more innovation can take place in the open source world, which the proprietary world may have a hard time catching up with.”
Albergotti: Apple's heavy marketing focus on privacy crippled its AI development
“And also, you know, another, another BS thing that Apple pitched, which this is privacy thing, which honestly, like, I cannot believe how much mileage they got out of that. They kind of just painted themselves into a corner because, you know, all these other c…”
Baszucki completely disavows Hindenburg Research's allegations of inflated Roblox user metrics
“On this point in particular, you know, on TV, publicly on earnings call, we completely disavow the whole allegation. And the interesting thing is investors can look at the ratio of the time on Roblox to the hours on Roblox to the bookings on On Roblox, that th…”
Hayes: X Serves Elon Musk's Political Project Rather Than Pure Attention
“X very clearly has an objective other than attention, which is the political project of its owner. You know what I mean? So like, there's a place where like, yes, that attention is being aggregated for a specific political process. Project. That political proj…”
Hayes: Musk's Twitter takeover converted political power into financial gains via Trump
“What it did was it created a kind of political power That then created financial rewards on the backside, because once you get Donald Trump elected, all of a sudden everyone wants to be your buddy, and your stock price goes up.”
Hayes: Regulating and capping screen time or attention consumption is not crazy
“I don't think that's a crazy idea. I mean, I don't want the Chinese model for a lot of things, but you know, there are some, certain things the Chinese are pretty good at. I think that we can, if we can regulate, you know, the argument I make in the book about…”
Enjeti: Zuckerberg, Pichai, and Bezos Political Flip-Flopping on Trump Is Cartoonish
“And so, in a weird way, I really respect the way that Tim Cook has handled the entire Trump era. It doesn't seem as dizzying as the Mark Zuckerberg, or the Sundar Pichai, or even Bezos. I mean, it's just cartoonish, you know, in my opinion, to see these people…”
Enjeti: A Future Democratic Administration Will Cancel Musk's Federal Contracts
“Yeah, if you're whoever, if you're Gavin Newsom administration, you're done. Like, it's, I'm gonna use the exact executive order precedent, and all of those contracts are getting canceled.”
Enjeti: DeepSeek Model Cost Over $1 Billion to Train
“This idea that it's six million dollars or whatever to run is ludicrous. It obviously cost over a billion dollars to train the model before it eventually got to the point where it could run off of that six million.”
Kantrowitz: Open-source models are poised to surpass proprietary AI labs
“It put the whole proprietary model industry, the OpenAI's and the anthropics of the world On their back feet, understanding that they are about to be passed by open source, and they have to embrace it.”
Hoffman: OpenAI meant open API access, not open source models
“In terms of being open, there's lots of different parameters of open, and open AI has been, you know, working to have, like, open, you know, kind of you know, with, obviously, identity and registration for safety, but open AI, API access. It wasn't called open…”
Hoffman: Elon Musk approved OpenAI's closed-model strategy as co-CEO
“Elon was part of that decision for you know, as kind of co-CEO in terms of making that decision. And so that's how open AI has always operated.”
Hoffman: FTC Chair Lina Khan's tech M&A crackdown concentrates Big Tech power
“You know, she misunderstands, like, kind of the role of how to stop the aggregation of power in large tech companies, because she says, well, if she stops large tech companies from buying small startups, what that means is venture capitalists, like myself, and…”
Demis Hassabis predicts AGI is three to five years away
“I think you know, I would say probably like three to five years away.”
Demis Hassabis expects Google spinout Isomorphic Labs to cure all diseases
“One is curing all diseases one day. Which I think we're going to do with isomorphic and the work we're doing there or our spin out, our drug discovery spin out.”
Kuyda: Solving Tech Isolation Requires More Powerful AI, Not Less Tech
“So the only way to solve it is by creating the tech that's even more powerful than the one that came before. And I do think AI is that”
Newton predicts Grammarly will be dead by the end of 2025
“Oh, can I give you a prediction? Grammarly dead by end of 2025.”
Newton: Google's AI models are trained to 'teach to the test'
“Well, I have a conspiracy theory, which is you know kind of not great to be sharing on a podcast, but I'm gonna do it anyway, which is, I think Google is teaching to the test. You know what I mean? Yes. Like, I think that they know what the benchmarks are, and…”
Arbaugh: Consumer products will require Neuralink compatibility to sell
“And so one day I think everything is gonna be, like, neural link compatible. Like, companies will have to put that in their product in order for it to sell. If it's not neural link compatible, people will be like, well, why, why are we even using this?”
Wang: Military AI will function as deterrence and prevent conflicts
“My hope certainly is that while AIs Application into military is something that is, is very concerning and potentially extremely powerful. It is the sort of same overall effect, which is to ultimately deter more conflict than create it.”
Benioff: Microsoft will likely fast-follow Salesforce into agentic AI
“Maybe Microsoft will pivot like they usually do and fast follow us, you know, into this new agentic world because I think that's really where all the action is going to be.”
Benioff: Prompt engineering was invented at Salesforce
“Even prompt engineering was invented at Salesforce, which we're very proud of.”
Benioff: Musk is unprecedentedly running multiple companies and the US government
“He's a great guy. He's doing incredible things. He's brilliant. He's running like 2000 companies and the US government all at the same time. So, you know, it's like, we've never seen anybody like this in my, in our careers, right? It's just like, this person c…”
Gomez: AI will never cause mass unemployment of humans
“Well, because I think that we will never see mass unemployment of humans. I think that this technology is going to unlock more opportunities. It will let us do more as opposed to Scaling back what we do.”
Gomez: AI Models Are Less Capable and More Controllable Than Feared
“As more and more evidence emerges that these models are much more controllable than we may have thought that they're a little bit less capable than we may have thought it's harder and harder to make that narrative.”
Gomez: AI Self-Improvement Plateaus and Won't Cause Intelligence Explosion
“Not happening. It's not happening. It improves for, it can self-improve for a while, and then it tapers off. And so, yeah, you get some good improvement out of it, which is why we use it, but then it plateaus. It doesn't just keep going forever.”
Gomez: AI Can Reach AGI Through The Internet Without Physical Embodiment
“I actually take, I think the less popular view, which is The internet is enough, and by observation, you can actually learn enough to be extremely, extremely compelling. I think that's if we're talking about AGI and doing things as well as humans do, I think t…”
Brown: Retail pharmacy chains CVS and Walgreens are going away
“All you have to do is look at a chart of CVS, which is in a 60% drawdown from a tie, or look at Walgreens Boots Alliance, which is in a 90% drawdown. These companies are going away.”
Brown: Capitalism collapses unless the middle class is forced to work
“The reason capitalism works is you have people at the top of the heap that have already made it, probably because they killed themselves to get there, and then you have people who want to be where they are and are willing to do the jobs that are necessary in o…”
Brown: The Fed sought a recession to push people back to work
“They never said it, but that was the explicit policy aim. We need to crash this economy to get people back to their jobs. It's crazy. I mean, it didn't work. They weren't able to do it, thank God. We got inflation down anyway despite their efforts”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Projects 100x Revenue Surge by 2029 Driven by ChatGPT
“Chat GPT is what open AI expects to lead its revenue which it expects to increase, it expects revenue, its revenue to increase a hundred fold by 20, 29. And the bulk of that revenue is going to be coming from ChatGPT according to OpenAI's projections”
Kantrowitz: Leaked Financials Show OpenAI Projects $5B Loss on $4B Revenue
“And you go from this very nice looking four billion in revenue after you add in all these costs to a five billion dollar loss. And that excludes stock based compensation, by the way, which is going to be another major cost.”
Bosworth: Mobile Gatekeepers, Especially Apple, Stifle Meta's Application Development
“Strategically, we have just been at the mercy of platforms for since the start of the mobile era. And we were a web company, right? We were born of the web, and the web was this, like, amazing, unowned platform that you just, like really had a lot of control o…”
Bosworth: Apple's ATT Self-Preferencing Slowed Down the Games Industry
“We built a app install business and then Apple came for that with ATT, you know, a tremendous amount of kind of self-preferencing for themselves there. And in doing so, they really put a, you know, the brakes on what was a really rapidly growing part of the ga…”
OpenAI Board Fired Sam Altman Because He Was Consistently Untruthful
“Well, the real reason was that the board was concerned that Sam was not telling the truth. He was He just was not a reliable source of information, and it wasn't just the board members who felt that, there were top executives who felt that as well.”
Silicon Valley Executives Report Growing Discontent Over Sam Altman's Disorganization
“Last week I talked to some people in the valley and A couple of times it came up that there are the, there's growing discontent about Sam Altman's general lack of focus and people are saying he's disorganized and they're trying too many things.”
Roy: Antitrust pressure will stall Apple's lucrative services revenue growth
“Tim Cook and Apple are quietly one of the most aggressive monopolists in terms of how they build the ecosystem and juice that services revenue and that kind of growth, I think will stall out. I think we're going to start to see some kind of pressure on bundlin…”
Russian Funders Pressured Tenet Media to Blame Ukraine for Moscow Attack
“There's also the Russians pushed them to create a video tying the terror attack in Moscow to Ukraine, even though, like, ISIS was claiming responsibility at that time.”
Roy: Audiences View Influencers Like Tim Pool as Entertainers, Not Journalists
“And I think a Tim pool or a lot of these people, yes, you could somewhat, a small group of people might consider them serious commentators or even quote unquote journalists. But I think most people are just like, they are entertaining and they kind of validate…”
Roy: Russia Is Almost Certainly Funding Far-Left US Influencers Too
“Well, no, but I am positive that there's also very left wing influencers who are also receiving whether directly or indirectly money from Russia.”
Hari warns of opioid-scale death toll from GLP-1 eating disorder misuse
“I think we get an opioid like death toll of young girls who use these drugs to starve themselves.”
Bostrom: AI slowdown activism creates pressure to abandon open inquiry
“Once you start to engage in activism, then
There is kind of mimetic pressures to simplify our message and to close ranks and to try to beat the people with opposing views down in the marketplace of ideas.
and I think we are seeing some of the beginnings of th…”
Diamandis: Smarter AI systems naturally become more benevolent and supportive
“Truly believe that as systems become more and more intelligent, they get more abundant minded, more loving of life more supportive.”
Klarna cut outsourced customer service spend by $40 million using AI
“We on average would have like a about 3000, it depends on because you have to remember also like our, just like Amazon, We have much more transactions around Christmas because we're very online, you know, so there will always be variations in these numbers, bu…”
Wood: Claude 3.5 Haiku Outperforms All Other Models on the Planet
“Claude III.V Haiku outperforms all other models on the planet.”
AWS's Wood: Foundation AI models will diversify rather than become commodities
“My guess is that these models will not, you know, kind of commodify. My guess is that they will diversify increasingly over time, and that the idea that there's, these models will become commodities Defined as, you know, you can hot swap them and that their ec…”
Saunders: OpenAI prioritizes shiny products over safety like the Titanic
“OpenAI claimed that their mission was to build safe and beneficial AGI, and I thought that this would mean that they would prioritize, you know, putting safety first. But over time, it started to really feel like the decisions being made by leadership were mor…”
Lessig: Ex-OpenAI Staff Remained Silent Fearing Equity Clawbacks
“I mean, I've spoken to ex-employees who've said, look, I've not done X, Y, and Z because I feared the club acts. So they can say, and they never enforced it. They didn't need to enforce it to have the effect, which it had for a significant number of people”