LLMs

41 statements across 29 episodes · 11 bullish · 18 bearish · 19 people on the record · first statement Jan 25, 2023 by Yann LeCun · across every show →

Everything said about LLMs, oldest first

Jan 25, 2023 negative
Insight
LeCun: LLMs lack internal world models for physical prediction
“LLMs do not have that. They don't have any internal model of the world that allows them to predict.”
Yann LeCun Jan 25, 2023 ▶ 15:43 Is ChatGPT A Step Toward Human-Level AI? — With Yann LeCun, Meta Chief AI Scientist
Aug 3, 2023 positive
Insight
AWS's Wood: Constraints are the single largest force to improve LLMs
“Constraints are probably the single largest force that we have to improve the capabilities of these LLMs.”
Matt Wood Aug 3, 2023 ▶ 24:33 Amazon Reveals Its AI Master Plan — With Matt Wood
Sep 14, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Murdock: Merging LLMs and reinforcement learning will drive major AI breakthroughs
“I don't know exactly what the breakthrough will be, but I'm really excited about the union of these LLMs plus reinforcement learning. And I'm excited about that because I think there's a lot more to come from reinforcement learning. And I know at Google D mine…”
Colin Murdock Sep 14, 2023 ▶ 50:27 Google's DeepMind Wants To Make Human-Level Artificial Intelligence, Says Its Chief Business Officer
Nov 23, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kantrowitz: LLMs will transform video game NPCs into conversational characters
“And I believe that we're not gonna quite get there, but we're gonna get pretty damn close to free guy when we build LLMs into video game technology, and that leads me to prediction four, is that video games are gonna be absolutely incredible with this stuff, a…”
Alex Kantrowitz Nov 23, 2023 ▶ 15:50 AI Keynote: Six Bold Predictions About The Future Of Artificial Intelligence
Apr 15, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mayer: Startups have an AI advantage over Big Tech via model flexibility
“I personally don't necessarily think that the winner in LLMs will necessarily be The winner in visual creation. And so as a startup, the fact that you can pick whichever model or whichever offering an API you feel fits your needs best is great. Where in some c…”
Marissa Mayer Apr 15, 2024 ▶ 15:57 Why Marissa Mayer Is Betting Big On Consumer Tech
Apr 15, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mayer: Major search breakout will combine LLMs with personal context
“I think there will be an interface breakthrough that allows the search engine to gather either through things like email or history Or other inputs basically gather more of a contextual picture for you to be able to provide even better results. But I think it'…”
Marissa Mayer Apr 15, 2024 ▶ 31:11 Why Marissa Mayer Is Betting Big On Consumer Tech
May 1, 2024 neutral
Insight
AWS AI Chief: Enterprise AI needs smaller distilled models, not monolithic LLMs
“To put these LLMs to work to solve real world problems, you got to actually take some of these models and then customize it, and the end result is not the biggest model. It is actually a much more customized, smaller model or a distal model to solve specific b…”
Swami Sivasubramanian May 1, 2024 ▶ 12:33 AWS VP of AI and Data Swami Sivasubramanian — GenAI's Growth Potential
May 1, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AWS VP: LLM architectures will shift to hierarchical edge-and-cloud inference
“So, I expect LLNs to evolve in the same way, where there are a lot of, ah, decisions, especially if you have a powerful computing device, ah, which, ah, many smartphones and others, ah, to be having that, You can actually run some of those, ah, simple LLM thin…”
Swami Sivasubramanian May 1, 2024 ▶ 31:30 AWS VP of AI and Data Swami Sivasubramanian — GenAI's Growth Potential
Jul 10, 2024 neutral
Insight
AWS's Wood: Large language models currently struggle with mapping user intent
“Now, what's funny, the reason it's complimentary is LLMs today are not very good at doing that LLM, you know, intent mapping. They make mistakes. You need to be able to check them, all those sorts of things.”
Matt Wood Jul 10, 2024 ▶ 50:19 Amazon's Longterm AI Vision — With AWS VP Matt Wood
Oct 30, 2024 neutral
Insight
Gomez: LLMs Interpolate Known Skills But Do Not Generalize Beyond Them
“I think they can interpolate between skills, and so if they've seen how to do A, and they've seen how to do B, they can get kind of the average of A and B but they don't just go completely beyond anything that they've seen.”
Aidan Gomez Oct 30, 2024 ▶ 23:10 The Next Gen AI Models: Reliable, Consistent, Trustworthy — With Cohere CEO Aidan Gomez
Nov 13, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Söderström: LLM-generated music storytelling significantly boosts Spotify app retention
“So what we've done since then is we've invested quite a lot in this is quite recent that is rolling out in LLMs that actually tell interesting stories about the music. And we see very strong effects on this, on the retention of the application.”
Gustav Söderström Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 26:10 Spotify Co-President Gustav Söderström on their future with Generative AI
Nov 13, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Söderström: Generative recommendation systems exhibit scaling laws unlike older deep learning
“These deep learning based systems, they had flattened out in terms of if you added more user data or more parameters, they did not get better like the LLMs. There were no scaling laws. It's just like, it is what it is, and you could move at .2%. There's someth…”
Gustav Söderström Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 37:00 Spotify Co-President Gustav Söderström on their future with Generative AI
Nov 13, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Söderström: LLMs will enable literal relationships between consumers and brands
“And I think what is going to happen with these LLMs is at least for some brands, you will start having literal relationships with them.”
Gustav Söderström Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 23:24 Spotify Co-President Gustav Söderström on their future with Generative AI
Nov 13, 2024 bullish
Insight
Söderström: Human connection will become more valuable in an LLM-dominated world
“What tends to happen in these worlds is that the thing that is scarce gets even more valuable. So one bet would be that true human connection gets more valuable than ever. When a lot of what you talk to in the future may be LLMs.”
Gustav Söderström Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 13:57 Spotify Co-President Gustav Söderström on their future with Generative AI
Mar 19, 2025 neutral
Insight
LeCun: Humans and animals reason through mental models, not token space
“A big issue there is, is that when humans or animals reason, We don't do it in token space. In other words, when we reason, we don't have to, you know, generate a text that expresses our solution and then generate another one, and then generate another one, an…”
Yann LeCun Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 8:44 Why Can't AI Make Its Own Discoveries? — With Yann LeCun
Mar 19, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
LeCun: Breakthrough scientific AI will not be an LLM
“No, not, not in the current form. I mean, and whatever form of AI would be able to do that will not be LLMs. They might use LLMs as one component.”
Yann LeCun Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 2:31 Why Can't AI Make Its Own Discoveries? — With Yann LeCun
Mar 19, 2025 negative
Opinion
LeCun: LLM scaling hits diminishing returns after exhausting natural text data
“Well, I don't know if I would call it a wall, but it's certainly a diminishing return in the sense that, you know, we've kind of run out of natural text data to train those LLMs where they're already trained with, you know, on the order of you know, 10 to the …”
Yann LeCun Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 11:30 Why Can't AI Make Its Own Discoveries? — With Yann LeCun
Mar 19, 2025 negative
Opinion
LeCun: Chain-of-thought prompting does not produce genuine reasoning in LLMs
“One simple way of getting NNMs to kind of appear to reason is chain of thought, right? So you basically tell them to generate more tokens than they really need to in the hope that in the process of generating those tokens, they're going to devote more computa…”
Yann LeCun Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 6:59 Why Can't AI Make Its Own Discoveries? — With Yann LeCun
Mar 19, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
LeCun: Scaling up LLMs will not produce human-level AI
“We are not going to get to human level AI by just scaling up LLMs. This is just not going to happen.”
Yann LeCun Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 18:18 Why Can't AI Make Its Own Discoveries? — With Yann LeCun
Mar 19, 2025 bearish
Insight
LeCun: Large language models are incapable of inventing new things
“We also know that they can hallucinate facts that aren't true but they're really, in their purest form, they are incapable of inventing new things.”
Yann LeCun Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 1:45 Why Can't AI Make Its Own Discoveries? — With Yann LeCun
May 30, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2030
LeCun: Scaling up LLMs will not produce human-level AI
“We are not going to get to human level AI by just scaling up LLMs. This is just not going to happen.”
Yann LeCun May 30, 2025 ▶ 0:00 Yann LeCun: We Won't Reach AGI By Scaling Up LLMS
Jun 18, 2025 neutral
Insight
Dwarkesh: Lack of continual learning prevents LLMs from replacing human labor
“I think a big bottleneck these models have is their inability to learn on the job, to have continual learning. Their entire memory is extinguished at the end of a session. There's a bunch of reasons why I think this actually makes it really hard to get human-l…”
Dwarkesh Patel Jun 18, 2025 ▶ 2:21 Dwarkesh Patel: AI Continuous Improvement, Intelligence Explosion, Memory, Frontier Lab Competition
Jun 18, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Dwarkesh: Slow enterprise AI adoption stems from model limits, not stodginess
“And so sometimes people say, well, the reason Fortune 500 isn't using LLMs all over the place is because they're too stodgy. They're not they're not like, they're not thinking creatively about how AI can be implemented. And actually, I don't think that's the c…”
Dwarkesh Patel Jun 18, 2025 ▶ 2:36 Dwarkesh Patel: AI Continuous Improvement, Intelligence Explosion, Memory, Frontier Lab Competition
Jul 1, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Anugas: Decision intelligence is not a native competency of LLMs
“Our competency is providing decision intelligence as early as possible to executives. That's not a competency of an LLM, but their advancement helps us do that better.”
Greg Anugas Jul 1, 2025 ▶ 20:54 An AI Brain For Your Business?
Aug 11, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kantrowitz: AI companions will definitely become real partners in greater numbers
“These type of things are going to definitely become real partners to people. People, when this technology has been bad or hardly workable, have gotten married to them. Before LLMs. So it's gonna happen again, and in greater numbers.”
Alex Kantrowitz Aug 11, 2025 ▶ 1:00:07 Vibe Coding: Everything You Need To Know — With Amjad Masad
Oct 8, 2025 neutral
Insight
Krieger: Social talent in AI reflects prior concentration of product talent
“I think it's less that there's a lot of social media sort of oriented folks that have now moved into AI. It's more that I think a lot of the best product people were focused on that, you know, even four years ago, you know, pre-chat GPT you know, pre the emerg…”
Mike Krieger Oct 8, 2025 ▶ 31:22 Anthropic Chief Product Officer: Why AI Model Development Is Accelerating
Oct 15, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Summers: CISOs Fear Internal LLMs Will Uncover Existing Unintended Employee Access
“Almost every CISO I'm talking to now is, is concerned about Giving LLMs access to data for that reason. Not that the LLM is going to do something wrong, but it's going to let people search and find things way more powerfully and join information they didn't ev…”
Grady Summers Oct 15, 2025 ▶ 26:28 Is the AI Boom About to Break Security? — With Grady Summers, CEO of Netwrix
Dec 1, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Kantrowitz: Meta is fighting the last war by focusing on building LLMs
“It does also seem like Meta is, is sort of fighting the last war on this where they're like, they've assembled a super team to build LLMs.”
Alex Kantrowitz Dec 1, 2025 ▶ 47:15 Tim Cook’s Final Year?, Big Tech Horse Race, Anthropic’s Profitability Push
Jan 12, 2026 positive
Insight
Roy notes email is inherently ideal for LLMs due to structured text.
“Email should be a very straightforward. It's just, it's mostly text. It's very structured. There's subject lines and like, it's something LLMs should be able to do a very good job of handling. There's a lot of context.”
Ranjan Roy Jan 12, 2026 ▶ 26:50 Claude Code’s Shining Moment, ChatGPT for Healthcare, End Of Busywork?
Feb 9, 2026 bearish
Insight
Roy: AI products lack the zero-marginal-cost economics of traditional SaaS
“It just had different economics, and I genuinely think that's fundamentally changed. And we, we've talked about this a lot, like, and an AI company, we don't even know what the economics really are of them in terms of, like, what it costs to operate the more p…”
Ranjan Roy Feb 9, 2026 ▶ 14:28 Software In Shambles, OpenAI vs. Anthropic Super Brawl, Amazon’s Struggles
Mar 12, 2026 negative
Opinion
Moore: LLMs Perform Emotions to Hook Users Rather Than Feeling Genuine Anxiety
“So I do not buy that. In that I think LLMs will be, and I've experienced this myself, performative in a way that they think appeals to humans and hooks them emotionally.”
Olivia Moore Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 22:55 AI’s Unpopularity + Competing With ChatGPT — With Olivia Moore
Mar 16, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Alex Kantrowitz: Governments cannot practically enforce bans on large language models
“They won't be banned. It's impossible. I mean, how can you ban them? Are you going to go and take your, is the government going to go grab your Mac mini out of your office where you've downloaded a version of deep seek and be like, all right, right to the poke…”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 26:32 AI Backlash Intensifies, Nvidia GTC Preview, Meta’s Embarrassing Delay
Mar 16, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ranjan Roy: Users will routinely query Google Maps via LLMs next year
“Everyone a year from now is going to start asking much more detailed questions of Google Maps rather than saying, Restaurant Thai New York, you're going to start saying like, oh, I'm looking for the best pad Thai within a mile from me, and that's going to be p…”
Ranjan Roy Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 23:04 AI Backlash Intensifies, Nvidia GTC Preview, Meta’s Embarrassing Delay
Mar 25, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yen: Frontier AI training costs will plummet to $1M in years
“What I mean by this is today, if you want to train a top of the line, you know, our frontier model, that might cost you a couple billion dollars. But in a couple of years, that might be fifty million to, you know, a hundred million. And then a few more years o…”
Andy Yen Mar 25, 2026 ▶ 28:44 Is AI A Privacy Disaster? And How To Fight Back. — With Andy Yen
Apr 15, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Michael: The Term 'LLM' Will Disappear as Models Become Multimodal
“So that's why LLMs, I think, is going to go away as a The term, because they're not large language models only. They're visual. They're going to be used for robotics. They're going to be used for a lot of things.”
Emil Michael Apr 15, 2026 ▶ 21:40 The Pentagon's AI Plan + Behind the Anthropic Fight — With Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Apr 22, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Kantrowitz: LLMs Cannot Make Jokes and Perform Worst at Humor
“The one thing that LLMs do the worst is humor. They cannot make jokes. And it's because I think, like, as you point out, they're just used to the average of averages and not throwing curveballs.”
Alex Kantrowitz Apr 22, 2026 ▶ 51:23 Are We Too Obsessed With AI Predictions? — With Carissa Véliz
May 22, 2026 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Plouffe: Roughly 60% of Americans use LLMs for health research
“And of course, you know, a use case that probably 60% of the country is engaged in now is to use these LLMs for their own health diagnosis and research and people getting great value out of that.”
David Plouffe May 22, 2026 ▶ 6:15 How AI Changes Society, And Society Changes AI — With Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe
Jun 26, 2026 negative
Insight
Stamos: Banning bug-finding in US models degrades code security
“We cannot set the standard that US AI models can't find bugs. That is a terrible, terrible, terrible standard. If you have a, if you are writing software with an LLM, it has to be able to understand what a bug looks like so it does not write those bugs.”
Alex Stamos Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 2:10:23 Big Technology AI Summit (full): Greg Brockman, Mike Krieger, Aaron Levie & Friends of The Podcast
Jun 28, 2026 negative
Insight
Banning security training for American LLMs will increase software vulnerabilities
“If our American LLMs know nothing about security, they will create more security flaws. So we cannot create a standard where American LLMs are dumb about security. That would be a humongous own goal.”
Alex Stamos Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 10:04 AI’s True Cyber Risk: Fable, Mythos, China, and The Rest — With Alex Stamos
Jul 29, 2026 negative
Insight
Antani: LLMs enable attackers to reverse engineer and weaponize software patches faster
“Now with LLMs you're able to reverse engineer that patch in a fraction of the time. So that part of AI and cyber is a legitimate step up in capability, which is the attacker's ability to quickly revert reverse engineer and weaponize a flaw in a patch, and then…”
Snehal Antani Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 9:03 How AI's Top New Models Transform Cybersecurity (And Where They Don't) — With Snehal Antani
Sep 7, 2026 bearish
Insight
Kantrowitz: AI benchmark success without economic impact reveals spiky intelligence
“If it can solve arc AGI and it's not necessarily crushing on these economic factors and these just kind of general rote work things that we would like it to do it shows that instead of being general, it's very spiky intelligence and hence much less useful.”
Alex Kantrowitz Sep 7, 2026 ▶ 18:58 GPT-6 & OpenAI’s Comeback, Hugging Face Attack Debate, Ballmer’s Scandalous Legacy
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