Russia

32 statements across 16 episodes · 5 bullish · 17 bearish · 16 people on the record · first statement Feb 3, 2022 by Joe Lonsdale · said 178 times in 36 episodes since 2021 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Joe Lonsdale (82), Dr. Mark Esper (19), Kevin Mandia (11), Dmitri Alperovitch (9), Emil Michael (7), Balaji Srinivasan (5), Whitney Baker (4), Scott Nolan (4)

tap a year for its mentions
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0510202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
001052010202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 26 mentions in 8 episodes 3 per episode
2025 12 mentions in 5 episodes 2 per episode
2024 32 mentions in 7 episodes 5 per episode
2023 38 mentions in 9 episodes 4 per episode
2022 66 mentions in 4 episodes 17 per episode
2021 4 mentions in 3 episodes 1 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Russia, oldest first

Feb 3, 2022 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lonsdale: Former Colombian President Duque caught protesters using Russian tech
“And the president of Colombia told us he's caught those same Chilean protesters with Russian technology, trying to do these things in Colombia as well.”
Joe Lonsdale Feb 3, 2022 ▶ 6:59 Peng Shuai, Beijing Olympics & Holding China Accountable with Former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 3, 2022 negative
What-if
Craft: Russian aggression would never have gone this far under Trump
“I think that, that Biden has not shown strength as the president that I served. We would have never been gone this far.”
Ambassador Kelly Craft Feb 3, 2022 ▶ 2:17 Peng Shuai, Beijing Olympics & Holding China Accountable with Former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 31, 2022 negative
Opinion
Esper: Putin failed strategically by unifying NATO and driving Ukraine westward
“I said before the invasion actually began that Putin had already lost. He lost because he had done three things before invading that he shouldn't have wanted to do in the first place. That is, number one, unifying NATO. Number two, have more NATO troops move t…”
Dr. Mark Esper Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 2:07 Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 31, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Esper: The Russian military is weaker than Western assessments anticipated
“Russia is not as good as we thought they were. We've seen failures in everything from their generalship to the lack of an NCO corps and to the performance of their soldiers. And of course, that extends into their equipment their shortages when it comes to supp…”
Dr. Mark Esper Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 1:32 Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 31, 2022 negative
Opinion
Esper: Corruption and Sycophancy Undermined Putin's Military Modernization
“I think that is a prevailing theory that despite whatever Putin was doing when it comes to modernizing his forces, there was a lot of corruption going on. A lot of people were telling him what he wanted to hear. And at the end of the day, you can see the perfo…”
Dr. Mark Esper Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 2:54 Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 31, 2022 negative
Opinion
Esper: Washington's political dysfunction is a bigger challenge than Russia or China
“I do think the biggest challenge we face today is not Russia or China. It's our political dysfunction in Washington, D.C.”
Dr. Mark Esper Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 33:02 Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 31, 2022 positive
Opinion
Esper: Ukraine combines Turkish drones and Javelins for small unit tactics
“We've actually seen the Ukrainians more, use more of the drones primarily Turkish bought, purchased drones. So again, they're using it to great effect. That combined with the use of anti-armor weapons, the javelins and the N-laws, anti-aircraft weapons like th…”
Dr. Mark Esper Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 4:58 Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 31, 2022
Disclosure
Esper: As Defense Secretary, he sought to move US forces east
“What I was trying to do as secretary of defense was actually push more forces East up to toward the Russian border in the frontline states as we call them.”
Dr. Mark Esper Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 9:02 Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 31, 2022 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Esper: Russia Failed to Scale Advanced Defense Technology Production
“Russia does have very capable engineers and technicians, but again, we just don't see that they've advanced the technology or expanded enough through production to really feel the force of that level of modernization.”
Dr. Mark Esper Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 5:31 Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 31, 2022 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Esper: Putin Cannot Accept Defeat and Will Continue Shelling Ukrainian Cities
“Can Putin walk away with a loss? I don't think so. He's gonna have to find a face saving way out. I think folks are gonna try and help him do that. At this point, I think his tactics will continue to be the indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian cities.”
Dr. Mark Esper Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 6:00 Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 31, 2022
Assertion Supported
Esper: Russia's economy is one-tenth the size of China's
“Because look, if we won't push it, put tough sanctions on Russia, which is, has one 10th the size of the economy of China, then we wouldn't do it to Beijing.”
Dr. Mark Esper Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 9:43 Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 22, 2023
Disclosure
Pompeo: Trump administration foreign policy prioritized exiting Afghanistan and deterring Russian European invasion
“In Afghanistan, we wanted to get out. In Russia, we wanted to make sure their thousand nuclear warheads were contained, and we didn't want them to invade Europe, and a longer list for the Chinese Communist Party, but we were pretty clear about our expectations…”
Mike Pompeo Feb 22, 2023 ▶ 8:30 Mike Pompeo: Negotiating with Tyrants, Spy Balloons (or UFOs?) & Why Trump Didn't Ban TikTok · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 22, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pompeo: China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea Axis Will Tighten
“I think we'll see more and more of that. We'll see ever closer relationships. Frankly, the iron triangle, or if you want to include North Korea quadrilateral between Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea is likely to get even tighter.”
Mike Pompeo Feb 22, 2023 ▶ 13:03 Mike Pompeo: Negotiating with Tyrants, Spy Balloons (or UFOs?) & Why Trump Didn't Ban TikTok · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 22, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pompeo: Ukraine war will continue until exhaustion forces a settlement
“That's why it's still going on, and why it's my expectation. It goes on for a while, but if you read just, if you read much history, certainly history of Europe, you, exhaustion takes place, and what seems impossible on Wednesday, a month from now, two months,…”
Mike Pompeo Feb 22, 2023 ▶ 14:55 Mike Pompeo: Negotiating with Tyrants, Spy Balloons (or UFOs?) & Why Trump Didn't Ban TikTok · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 22, 2023 positive
Opinion
Pompeo: Arming Ukraine will accelerate an unexpected diplomatic resolution
“I suspect that there will come a day when we'll all be surprised and they'll, they'll find a way to an accommodation that works for everyone there. And the only way to drive that is we ought to provide the Ukrainians with the things they're prepared to fight a…”
Mike Pompeo Feb 22, 2023 ▶ 15:41 Mike Pompeo: Negotiating with Tyrants, Spy Balloons (or UFOs?) & Why Trump Didn't Ban TikTok · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 22, 2023 negative
Opinion
Pompeo: Xi Jinping Holds Increased Leverage Over Vladimir Putin
“Having now failed, having now demonstrably been unable to execute the, at least the military and diplomatic objectives of the invasion of Europe, I think Xi has even more leverage over Vladimir Putin today. Think think energy as their sole customer, near sole …”
Mike Pompeo Feb 22, 2023 ▶ 12:17 Mike Pompeo: Negotiating with Tyrants, Spy Balloons (or UFOs?) & Why Trump Didn't Ban TikTok · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 29, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
McRaven: Russian Generals Died on Front Lines Due to Flawed Command Systems
“Their command and control systems were not very good. Of course, a lot of their generals had to come, come to the front lines and they were eliminated on the front lines because their command and control systems weren't good.”
Adm. Bill McRaven Mar 29, 2023 ▶ 32:07 Ep 51: Adm. Bill McRaven on Leadership, Modernizing the Dept of Defense & Dealing with China · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 29, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McRaven: Russia Modernized Tanks and Aviation but Failed on Soldiers and Tactics
“We've been watching the Russian modernization program over the last 10 or 15 years, you know, and so, I mean, they went from the, you know, T-seventy-two, T-eighty, T-ninety tank, they've modernized their aviation fleet and everything else. I mean, we saw this…”
Adm. Bill McRaven Mar 29, 2023 ▶ 30:32 Ep 51: Adm. Bill McRaven on Leadership, Modernizing the Dept of Defense & Dealing with China · Joe Lonsdale
May 24, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Berlia: Russia has backed India on every UN Council vote for decades
“Every, every vote at the UN Council, Russia's backed India to the hilt for decades, consistently so, right?”
Adi Berlia May 24, 2023 ▶ 35:04 Ep 59: Adi Berlia Explains India's Remarkable Rise Out of Socialism · Joe Lonsdale
Jul 14, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Karp: China and Russia's software pivot will let them catch up
“China and Russia realize this. They didn't realize it before. And that is going to change where they invest their money. And we'll give them ability to catch up if we're not on top of this.”
Alex Karp Jul 14, 2023 ▶ 43:41 Alex Karp On The Future Of AI And Building A Multi Billion-Dollar Company · Joe Lonsdale
Jul 18, 2023 negative
Opinion
Andreessen: Halting nuclear power in Europe enabled Russia to invade Ukraine
“The consequences of stopping nuclear power 50 years later, you know, it's just been, it was just like a catastrophic mistake. You know, geopolitically, it's directly connected to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Europe is effectively funding Russia to invade Ukra…”
Marc Andreessen Jul 18, 2023 ▶ 3:55 Ep 65: Marc Andreessen and the Case for AI Optimism · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 14, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Emil Michael: Global Citizens Still Prefer the American System Over Any Other
“If you surveyed every other person in the world who is living in America now, what's the one country they would want to live in? What system that they think is the best for their children? They would still choose this system. They wouldn't choose China, Russia…”
Emil Michael Feb 14, 2024 ▶ 38:48 Ep 78: Emil Michael — the Master Dealmaker Behind Uber's Global Dominance · Joe Lonsdale
Apr 18, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Pahlavi: Iran's military and security apparatus is dominated by Russian influence
“The military intelligence structure, security is dominated by Russian influence and support.”
Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi Apr 18, 2024 ▶ 15:54 Ep 85: The Path to Regime Change in Iran with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi · Joe Lonsdale
Aug 16, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Lowery: Russia Can Build 500 Shahed Drones Per Month
“Russia, I think can build 500 shahads per month. The group three shahad, 500 per month.”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 31:25 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Aug 21, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Machado: Venezuela is Russia's sixth-largest military arms buyer
“Venezuela is the sixth largest armed military arms buyer of Russia.”
Maria Corina Machado Aug 21, 2025 ▶ 13:36 From Prosperity to Ruins: Venezuela’s Fight for Freedom · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 4, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Mandia: Russian SVR doctrine shifted in August 2015 toward data leaks
“I had 20 years of responding to SVR. They never hacked and then released data. They suddenly did that in August, They always hacked for security reasons, and all of a sudden we're responding to them hacking universities. I'm like, oh, they increased scope. And…”
Kevin Mandia Feb 4, 2026 ▶ 15:00 AI Expert: Agents Will Take Over Everything · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 4, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Mandia: China matched Russia's elite cyber intrusion capabilities by 2020.
“And I do believe you know, Russia had the crown early, 19 nineties, early 2000, the best intrusions I saw. Was Russian operators on our networks. later in my career, especially around 2019, 20, 20 China, you know, really rapidly graduated to great capabilitie…”
Kevin Mandia Feb 4, 2026 ▶ 4:51 AI Expert: Agents Will Take Over Everything · Joe Lonsdale
May 29, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Hughes: US, Russian, and Brazilian Economies Grew Faster After Freeing Slaves
“United States had had a mass emancipation in Russia had a slower mass emancipation between 18 63 and around 1900. Brazil had a mass emancipation of slaves in the 18 eighties. In every single one of those cases, the economy grew faster after slaves were freed t…”
Coleman Hughes May 29, 2026 ▶ 43:18 How the Left Weaponized Slavery · Joe Lonsdale
Jun 5, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Lonsdale: Russia funded European green parties to halt fracking and eliminate competition
“They funded the green parties, they funded the protests, and they turned off fracking in Europe because it's so good for the environment. They tricked everyone because obviously they don't want competition.”
Joe Lonsdale Jun 5, 2026 ▶ 21:16 SpaceX’s Secret, Nuclear's Rebirth, and the AI Power Crisis · Joe Lonsdale
Jun 5, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nolan: Allied nuclear fleets will rely on Russia and China without US
“If the U.S. Does not provide enrichment To these countries, they will have to get it somewhere else as they build up their nuclear fleet, or they turn back on their nuclear fleet, and that'll be Russia, China.”
Scott Nolan Jun 5, 2026 ▶ 34:45 SpaceX’s Secret, Nuclear's Rebirth, and the AI Power Crisis · Joe Lonsdale
Jul 9, 2026 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Kolicich: AI investment at 4% of GDP lags historical industrial revolutions
“If you look at the Industrial Revolution in Russia in the early 20th century, I think investment as a percentage of GDP got up to 20 or 25%, and then China was investing 40 or 50% in their industrial revolution of GDP, and now in AI we're investing, like, thre…”
Alex Kolicich Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 37:42 Why AI is Bigger Than the Industrial Revolution
Jul 24, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Major nations will restrain their advanced AI cyber offensive capabilities
“And in reality, no modern nation, even the folks that can create this capability, China, Russia, others will leverage it. Even they don't want to really, no one's ready for it.”
Kevin Mandia Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 31:13 America’s $700 Billion Defense Tech Rebuild
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