The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 98 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Calacanis: Microsoft will release an OpenAI search engine impacting Google
“Microsoft, I think is going to release a and there's a prediction as well, a search engine with Open AI, that has a significant impact on Google's franchise.”
Makary predicts GLP-1 drug starter pricing will drop to $149
“With the GLP-I example, for example, it's gonna come down to a 149 dollars for the first three months.”
Friedberg: Huawei will deploy undisclosed lithography to rival top chips by 2026
“My early prediction for 20, 26 is Huawei where I think that there's a lithography technology that exists in China that is not publicly discussed. That is going to be deployed in Huawei and all these fabs that they're building in mainland China. And Huawei can …”
Chamath: Tariffs will generate $300B-$400B extra annual revenue
“We are run rating, 300 to four hundred billion dollars above forecast in terms of our receipts, meaning the revenues that we will take in. And you get to that number by looking at the last three months of tariffs and forecasting forward, assuming a reasonable …”
Chamath: Trump administration will not capitulate on trade tariffs
“They're gonna go through with this and they're gonna see it through. I don't think you're gonna see this grand capitulation.”
Calacanis: Google will roll over ChatGPT using its distribution advantage
“So I think that Google will roll. I think they're going to roll ChatGPT.”
Sacks: Banks will soon take over San Francisco office towers
“I think office towers in San Francisco are, that is some serious toxic debt, 27% vacancy rates and growing as Lisa's role. I think that a lot of these buildings, maybe virtually all of the San Francisco downtown is going to be owned by the bank soon because no…”
Friedberg predicts lack of energy resolution will trigger European civil unrest
“If there isn't a resolution in the next few weeks, there will be civil unrest. There will be a really cataclysmic concerning economic effect.”
David Sacks predicts Hispanic and Asian American voters flip Republican in 2022
“It's already the case in polling that Hispanics and Asian Americans now are swing voters, and I think you're gonna see in November, 20, 22, that they go for Republicans in big numbers, and so the idea that the Democratic Party can just coast to election based …”
Chamath: Donald Trump and Joe Biden will both be one-term presidents
“Both of these two guys are one term presidents. I think that is abundantly clear.”
Palihapitiya predicts Supreme Court will uphold private business vaccine mandates
“So I think that there's going to be these biological Patriot acts, unfortunately. And then the second thing that I'll say is that I do think that it will get litigated to the Supreme court. And I think that narrowly what will come down is that businesses will …”
Calacanis: Trump, Giuliani, and Trump Jr. will face civil and criminal charges
“They're gonna face some amount of civil and criminal charges, I believe.”
Chamath: Government IDs will be required to use advanced AI models
“If you have to put in your driver's license to buy fertilizer, you're sure as will have to put in your driver's license to use Fable Five, which is the precursor to know how to use fertilizer to make the bomb.”
Calacanis: ChatGPT will likely hit 1 billion users in two months
“They got a billion users or they're trended to a billion. I think they probably hit it in the next month or two.”
Bessent forecasts $200B to $300B U.S. fiscal contraction for the calendar year
“I forecast that we will have approximately a 200 to three hundred billion fiscal contraction for the calendar year, which is between .71% of GDP.”
Bessent projects U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio will drop to mid-5% range
“We're gonna end the year with a nominal growth close to six percent. So we will be bringing down the Deficit to GDP. I believe it peaked 6.8% for the calendar year, previous year, and we're going to be in the mid fives”
Bessent predicts declining rental prices will continue to drop
“We are now seeing rents are down about five percent. I think that trend will continue.”
Friedberg: Huawei will challenge Nvidia in 2026 using undisclosed lithography tech
“My early prediction for twenty-twenty-six is Huawei, where I think that there's lithography technology, that exists in China that is not publicly discussed, that is going to be deployed in Huawei and all these fabs that they're building in mainland China.”
Lutnick: Unsettled trade negotiations will trigger higher tariffs on August 1st
“Okay, so on August first, whatever hasn't been settled will be settled. You get the tariffs go into effect, right? So all this 10%, they'll all just pop up to some higher number.”
Travis Kalanick warns expanding California's grid by 10% will take years
“Even getting 20% more, 10% more is going to be a gargantuan five to 10 year exercise.”
Chamath: A Trump victory will push up gold, Bitcoin, equities, and rates
“And if Trump wins, which it looks like he's increasingly going to do, and if he wins by the margins that it looks like it's going to do, you're going to see a lot of these things exacerbate. Gold's going to go up more probably. Bitcoin will probably go. The sh…”
Friedberg: US debt could reach $40 trillion by end of 2025
“Plus, the Biden administration has proposed a 7.2 trillion dollar budget for next year, which will inevitably lead to another two trillion dollars of deficit spending, which means that by the end of 2025, we could be staring at 40 trillion dollars of federal d…”
Sacks predicts higher inflation in Japan and continued Yen depreciation
“And the result of this is going to be more inflation in Japan. Their currency is going to continue to depreciate.”
Friedberg: Record Atlantic ocean temperatures will drive massive hurricanes by autumn 2024
“So if this does not taper off or level off, we will see record sea surface temperatures in the August to October timeframe, which will almost certainly push massive hurricane events out of the Atlantic, and they will find their way towards the continental U.S.…”
Chamath: Nvidia will lose market share to AI chip startups over time
“At some point, the spread trade will be that Nvidia loses share, even though revenues keep compounding to these upstarts.”
Calacanis: AI models will become 99% cheaper every two years
“And these are now becoming about 90% cheaper every year, which means every two years these things are going to be 99% cheaper and better.”
Chamath: Stocks will melt up until first Fed rate cut, then drop
“I think now what the setup is for 20, 24 is basically we will melt up. Up until the first cut, and then there'll probably be some real selling.”
Phillips: Biden will likely match Trump's $7 trillion deficit addition
“That's why Trump added seven trillion dollars to the deficit. And that's why Biden will probably end, you know, add about that much as well.”
Sacks: Private equity will buy WeWork out of bankruptcy and profit immensely
“I actually think that some private equity player is going to buy this out of bankruptcy and make a fortune.”
Chamath: SEC will reject crypto ETFs and target VCs and staking services
“And so they're coming down hard and they're going to go and systematically dismantle the largest actors and they're going to go through the value chain. So I think the obvious place that they're looking now or. The exchanges, they'll look at the custodial serv…”
Palihapitiya: Nvidia's margins will compress as major tech companies build custom chips
“In the end, Nvidia's gains today will be then spread across Nvidia. Facebook will have their own chip. Amazon will have their own chip. Google already does. Apple will have their own chip. All the memory companies will be in this space, right? So then the prof…”
Chamath predicts TikTok will be banned in the United States
“Will it be banned? Yes, because it's the most obvious cultural way to pick a fight with China without actually picking a fight with China.”
Palihapitiya predicts publishers will block non-paying AI agents from their content
“So this is going to happen for these agents. It's unrealistic to expect that it won't.”
Friedberg: Record VC dry powder will force unprecedented deployment within three years
“The total VC capital raised last year, I think was a record high. That means there's a lot more cash that needs to kind of be deployed in the next 12 to 36 months than has ever been deployed in, in the history of venture.”
Chamath predicts tech, energy, and junk debt will underperform in 2023
“I think that tech will have a tough year. I think energy will have a really shit year. And probably the biggest asset class that is going to get pressured is going to be junk debt.”
Chamath: Big tech will face major market cap and headcount cuts
“Those are the generals that are about to get shot over the next eight to 12 months, in my opinion, in the public markets, in terms of market cap and employment and perks.”
Chamath predicts Fed rates will reach 4% to 5% by Q1 2023
“It's going to go by 75. It's probably going to go another 75. We're going to have rates by four to four 50 to five percent, probably within Q one.”
Chamath: The overwhelming majority of tech SPACs will wind up
“The overwhelming majority of the tech SPACs, I think probably will just wind up.”
Friedberg: US economic contraction and higher unemployment are now inevitable
“There's a, there's an inevitability now that unemployment is going to rise. There is an inevitability now that the economy is going to contract.”
Sacks: San Francisco office vacancy will hit 30 million square feet
“They said that by the end of the year, they're expecting Thirty million square feet of office vacancy. In San Francisco by the end of the year.”
Sacks: Coatue forecasts that venture capital availability will drop 75%
“They're predicting, they're forecasting that capital availability will It's going to decline about 75%. The amount of money that's venture money that's available to the ecosystem down by three quarters.”
Silver: Base case for 2022 midterms is Republican majorities in Congress
“Midterm elections are more predictable Than presidential elections. And the base case is that you wind up with Republican majorities of some magnitude.”
Chamath: Twitter board will fail to find a competing bidder
“They have to take Elon's offer and they have to create a go shop. I will go and try to get a better price. They won't be able to. And the reason they won't be able to is not a single person who is capable of stepping up with forty three billion dollars would e…”
David Sacks predicts Ron DeSantis will become the 2024 GOP frontrunner
“My biggest political winner for twenty-twenty-two, I predict my man Ron DeSantis will be the big winner. He's up for re-election in Florida. He won in 2018 with less than one percent of the vote. It was a real nail biter. This time I think he's going to cruise…”
Sacks predicts blue state governors will drop COVID restrictions due to fatigue
“I will predict that even the blue areas of the country are gonna have fatigue with all these COVID restrictions and So even the blue state governors who are addicted to their state of emergencies and their restrictions and lockdowns and closures and mask manda…”
Chamath predicts severe 2021 Western US fire season and electrical brownouts
“We are going to have a terrible, we're going to have a terrible fire season. There's going to be brownouts probably throughout a lot of the Western states. What played out in Texas that affected folks a few months ago, I think will some version of that will ha…”
Chamath: Corporate tax hits 25%, but capital gains rate won't change
“Sorry, no movement on cap gains. They don't think it can happen at all. So that's not going to move. Number one. Number two is that corporate will go to 25, but not to 28. And then number three, they're going to really tighten the IP loophole, which will preve…”