The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 50 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 50 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Shirley: Entitlement fraud money in Minnesota is funding Al-Shabaab terrorists
“And so like the rumors of them funding Al-Shabaab, they're real, because they've been able to funnel all this money.”
Baker: Anthropic is profitable and currently generating cash
“Anthropic is generating cash, and like, they kind of, this fact is, I would say, kind of known in the world, and I've actually never really spoken to Anthropic, but it just, you know, it feels like there are enough signals And then if you're to read the tea le…”
Dr. Oz estimates $3.5 billion in Los Angeles hospice healthcare fraud
“Just LA County alone, just in hospice and home health care, we believe it's about three and a half billion dollars.”
Caruso: LAFD ran short of water, equipment during Palisades wildfire
“We were actually on the seventh loaning equipment to LA Fire Department, who was running short of equipment, and we were actually loaning water because we were bringing in our water tanks when the water hydrants failed to work.”
Sacks: Data shows 3x more people on left endorse political violence
“Last week we showed you plenty of data showing that there was three times as many people on the left who are celebrating or endorsing political violence.”
Trump asserts COVID-19 originated from and leaked out of Wuhan lab
“Where it originally came from was the Wuhan lab. I happen to think it escaped from the Wuhan lab.”
Chamath: Only 22 of 1,276 billion-dollar funds returned over 2.3x capital
“Okay, so now of those 1276 private equity funds, or growth funds, or crossover funds, how many do you think have actually managed to return more than 2.3 times the money? 22 of them.”
Sacks: Anthropic surpassed $80B ARR and will beat year-end targets early
“The latest we heard is Anthropic is now over eighty billion of ARR. Started the year at 10. It had forecast a hundred billion as exit ARR for the year, and most people said that that would be impossible to achieve. Now it looks like they're gonna do it with a …”
Gerstner: Z.ai's GLM-5.2 contains watermarks showing distillation from Mythos
“GLM 5.2 has watermarks from mythos all over it, right? So we know they were distilling, etc.”
Bass: Reid Hoffman initiated contact with Jeffrey Epstein around 400 times
“There's something around on the order of about
400 initiations by Hoffman to Epstein.”
Bass: Documents record 42 meetings between Reid Hoffman and Jeffrey Epstein
“There's something like 42 different meetings that are documented. Around 20 are absolutely confirmed.”
Calacanis: Anthropic's releases angered Cursor, one of its largest customers
“They released Claude code, they released Claude design, and that really pissed off Curser, who was one of the biggest customers that Anthropoc had to date, and they felt they got rug pulled by Claude.”
Sacks: Anthropic is surpassing $70B in ARR this year
“Meanwhile, you're seeing Anthropic break into the seventies at 70 plus billion of ARR. Their forecast was to 10 X this year. From ten billion of ARR to a hundred billion, I think most people are saying they will exceed that, a 110, a 120.”
Chamath: Andreessen Horowitz is the largest donor in this election cycle
“There was an article in the New York times this week, which really surprised me, but the largest donor in the, in this election cycle is Andreessen Horowitz.”
Sacks: Hyperscaler CapEx will hit $600B, adding 2% to GDP growth
“CapEx for this year that's expected just from the four leading hyperscalers is six hundred billion dollars just from four companies. That's a roughly two percent tailwind to GDP growth right there.”
Friedberg: California faces a trillion-dollar pension fiscal cliff
“California has a trillion dollar fiscal cliff coming up because of the pension obligations.”
Musk: Every car Tesla currently produces is capable of being a robotaxi
“I mean, all of the cars we make right now are capable of being a robotaxi.”
Chamath: Blake Byers is sponsoring a UCSF trial editing short-sleep genes
“Blake Byers came to my house for poker. He's sponsoring a study at UCSF, which I thought was incredible. You know the gene that allows Donald Trump to sleep four hours? ... Clinton had that gene too, and Blake is sponsoring a trial to basically edit a handful …”
Chamath: Most AI hardware shipped to Asia is used by Chinese groups
“It is implausible that if you did one or two layers of work, you would not find that most of this traffic is being used by Chinese organizations. That may be okay. And that's a decision that the United States government should make, but it's something that, th…”
Gracias: January 1st was the most common birthdate in border data
“When we looked at the birth certificate data that was presented at the border, the number one birth date was one. And it was four times more likely to be born on one-on-one than any other day of the year.”
John Collison: Stripe is profitable on a fully loaded GAAP net income basis
“We are profitable, yeah. And profitable on like a fully loaded gap net income basis, not like a community adjusted EBITDA stuff.”
Sacks: OpenAI likely trained its Sora video model on YouTube data
“I think it's pretty clear that OpenAI trained Sora using, you know, available data on the internet, and that probably included YouTube.”
Calacanis says NYT omitted 'financially' from Hunter Biden quote
“And the New York Times took out the word financially to make it more broad to say he's not been involved in my business.”
Mumgaard: Regulating fusion as particle accelerators cuts overhead from $1B to $10M
“That goes from a billion dollar regulatory overhead to a ten million dollar regulatory overhead.”
U.S. Congressional turnover is lower than some European monarchies
“The turnover rate of U.S. Members of Congress was less, as according to The Economist, than certain Aristocratic and monarchies in, in Europe.”
Sacks: Ukrainian leaders issued coordinated exaggerated warnings about Zaporizhzhia fire
“Zelensky tweeted out a video where he basically was saying this plant has been attacked. It's on fire. It's going to be Chernobyl times 10 for all of Europe. And then the foreign minister of Ukraine came out with another statement just like that simultaneously…”
Sacks: Eliminating Amazon DSPs will add $5.20 per package
“What we do know it will do is raise the cost of packages by about five dollars and 20 cents per package, and it will cost families 664 dollars more per year, and it puts something like 5000 jobs at risk.”
Gerstner: Over 1.5M Trump Accounts Created in First 24 Hours
“We had over a million and a half counts created in the first 24 hours.”
Gerstner: About 25 states plan to add money to children's Trump Accounts
“We have about 25 states who are gonna add money into the accounts of the kids in their states.”
Rodriques: $500-minimum private equity funds with SpaceX launching for unaccredited investors
“However, there are products coming to market. We can talk about this in detail later, that have 60 companies, including SpaceX, that are listed products for unaccredited, 500 dollar minimums, and that capital for those funds will be the underlying...”
Sachs: Top four hyperscalers will spend $350B on capex this year
“Again, just the top four hyperscalers, three hundred and fifty billion dollars of expected capex this year on its way.”
Bryan Johnson: FOXL-III stem cell therapy showed over 50% tissue rejuvenation
“So the mesenchymal stem cells, you know, packaged up with the FOXL-III delivery you know, that showed that over 50% of tissue is getting that rejuvenation.”
Dr. Oz: CMS had only 9 software engineers among 6,500 employees
“We had nine engineers when we came in and all of CMS, our COBOL based infrastructure built in the seventies, where we don't have engineers that you're talking about in the department, you had nine engineers out of what's the denominator of employees? 6500 empl…”
Gecko Robotics tech delivers 90% faster manufacturing per US Navy Admiral
“Admiral Houston has talked about 90% improvements to speed and manufacturing using the technology that Gecko builds.”
Friedberg: YouTube Restricted Mode filters Tucker Carlson vs. Mark Cuban video
“I can confirm that Tucker and Mark Cuban also get filtered.”
Calacanis: OpenAI plans to charge $2k-$20k monthly for AI agents
“Open AI is planning to charge between two and 20 K a month for different levels of AI agencies would be basically cron jobs.”
David Friedberg: Scientists can now reprogram human body cells into egg cells
“So the interesting work going on right now is you basically can take any cell from a person's body, turn it into a stem cell, and then turn that stem cell ultimately into an egg cell.”
Palihapitiya: Gavin Newsom is starting his 2028 presidential campaign
“It's clear he's starting the 20, 28 campaign.”
Chamath: California poorly spent $21 billion on homelessness programs
“How much money, and we know the answer to this, how much money did the government of California spend poorly, as it turns out, on homelessness, it was about twenty one billion dollars”
Belmonte: Yamanaka factor pulses reverse diabetes symptoms in obese mutant mice
“If we just give a short pulse of these Yamanaka factors, we get this mouse. The mouse still keeps eating because it has the mutation. We haven't corrected. But the mouse now has less fat in the liver and can respond to glucose like a normal A young and healthy…”
Dalio: India has highest potential 10-year growth among top 22 economies
“India has the highest potential growth rate.”
Chamath: Boomers will pass $70 trillion to younger generations over 30 years
“There's 70 trillion dollars that boomers have that they are about to pass down to these folks on average between two and three trillion a year for the next 30 years.”
Langley: Close to 20 cities have turned Flock cameras back on
“We've had close to 20 cities already turned their cameras back on.”
Hurst: Agility's Digit v5 robot operates 20 hours per day
“20 out of 24 hours for our Digi V-Five robot.”
Sacks cites poll showing net positive support for reconciliation bill provisions
“Is that support for a big, beautiful bill plus six. Increased funding for border security plus 35. That'll probably be even more now that what's going on in LA. Work requirements for Medicaid and SNAP plus 38. So despite the Democrats carping on that point, pe…”