The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13,205 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 498 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chamath: Using local AI models for enterprise applications is 'stupid'
“I don't think enterprises will use local models or they should. I think it's stupid. I think. I think this stuff should be hosted in the cloud. It should be multiplayer. It should be shared memory.”
Sacks: Senator Cantwell opposed AI safety bill at Dario Amodei's behest
“Cantwell, who's the ranking member on the Senate Commerce Committee, opposed it, supposedly at Dario's behest, because he will accept nothing less than an FDA for AI.”
Calacanis: Anthropic is destroying rare books for AI training data
“Anthropic is destroying rare books to get an edge in training data.”
Calacanis: Anthropic paid $1.5B in the largest US copyright settlement
“Obviously last week we saw anthropic paid the largest copyright case in us history, 1.5 billion for seven million books. They allegedly pirated authors get 3000 each lawyers got a hundred million for that one”
Sacks: Anthropic iterated prompts over 200 times in AI blackmail study
“Remember when Anthropic did the whole blackmail study, you know, where supposedly an agent displayed independent goal-seeking behavior and then blackmail an employee. It turned out that actually they iterated on the prompt over 200 times to get to that result.”
Friedberg: Converting copyrighted data into AI knowledge will be upheld as fair use
“I do think fundamentally that the conversion of that data into what I would call knowledge and ultimately the ability to create new outcomes from that knowledge that are not copyrighted, that are not copies of the original material, I do think is going to end …”
Sacks: Anthropic shows breathtaking hypocrisy by blocking training on its model output
“It's breathtaking hypocrisy for Anthropic to maintain that it is entitled to train on all the world's output for free, even if the creator objects, but- The one type of output that you're not allowed to train on is their output, even if you pay for it. That is…”
McMaster: Chinese quadruped robots in US are leaking data to China
“We've already heard about leaks that are happening with some of the quadrupeds that you're seeing in the United States and being back channeled back to China.”
Sacks: AI safety rhetoric is leading toward a push to ban open-source models
“I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models.”
Sacks: Anthropic is seeking regulatory capture and government protection
“Anthropic is guilty of regulatory capture of attempts to seek government protection.”
Sacks: Anthropic's ARR grew from $10 billion to over $70 billion
“They started the year at ten billion of ARR. They're now over seventy billion of ARR.”
Chamath: Intervening against open-source AI will tank the US stock market
“Now, there's another important thing here, which is if the United States government intervenes, it will tank the stock market.”
Sacks: Anthropic's proposed open-source AI bans do not solve model distillation
“These proposals to ban open source that are coming from Anthropic. They don't solve the distillation problem.”
Sacks: US frontier AI models remain six months ahead of China
“I don't believe that China has caught up. I still think we are six months ahead.”
Sacks: OpenAI forecasts $75 billion in exit ARR by year-end
“I think they were expecting to end the year at sixty billion of ARR. And I think they're forecasting more like seventy five billion of exit ARR.”
Calacanis: Margin compression will derail OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs
“I believe that this is going to derail their IPOs. I'm taking it from the top. It's going to derail their IPOs. It's going to be headwinds against it because I think that they're going to have massive margin compression.”
Friedberg: Courts won't rule AI processing digital knowledge as copyright infringement
“Knowledge can't be contained. It's diffuse. And so the form of copyright is very clear. The case law and copyright is very clear. I cannot lift text out of your book, reprint it, and claim it as my own. That is a violation of copyright. But my reading of your …”
Calacanis: AI companies should pool 10% of revenue to pay content owners
“All the AI companies should get together, take 10% of your revenue, put it in a pool, and keep paying the people and getting permission from them, so you can get updates on the content”
Friedberg: Eroding private property rights will lead to tyranny in America
“As soon as those rights start to slip away, even in the tiniest way, it is a cascading effect. And everything will become tyrannical, and it will be very ugly in the United States of America.”
Chamath: Banning tenant credit checks will drive apartment rents higher
“If you force the owners of physical property to not be able to credit check and differentiate who they rent their apartments to, what's going to happen is rents will go up even more.”
Cuban: AI bubble won't harm average Americans, could destroy VCs
“So it's not a bubble that's going to impact most people in the room, right? Or most people across the U S but it could just destroy a lot of VCs and a lot of funds and a lot of PE, right? Because they're going all in.”
Cuban: AI will not eliminate 50% of white-collar jobs
“But AI is not going to, you know, take away 50% of the jobs. There's just so much it can't do that regular people need it to do.”
Cuban: Controlling social media algorithms controls elections in many cases
“Whoever controls the algorithm controls, you know, the election in many cases.”
Cuban: Wealth tax proposals are showmanship based on flawed single-year models
“When Elizabeth Warren first proposed the wealth tax, so I found, and she said, well, we have these models and everything. So I found the economist at UC Berkeley, And I said, would you share your model with me or at least tell me about it? He goes, I'm like, w…”
Sacks: Anthropic's SRO support is a stepping stone to FAA-style regulation
“However, I think this is just an opening bid for Anthropic, meaning they'll take this. Thank you very much. This is more regulation than we have today. But that won't be the end of it, right? This will just be the stepping stone to get what Dario has now calle…”
Sacks: Permission-based AI regulation will cause US to lose race to China
“But when you're talking about AI models, you're talking about replacing a system that is releasing new versions Every couple of months with one that is potentially fully under the control of government, fully government approved, everything has to be certified…”
Sacks: Anthropic is principally responsible for state AI regulatory frenzy
“Anthropic was principally responsible for the state regulatory frenzy that is damaging the startup ecosystem.”
Sacks: The US may only be months ahead of China in AI
“Kimmy K three just came out and people are saying it's now right up there. It's very, very close to the frontier. We may have months on China if that.”
Junestrand: Building general intelligence models is a waste of time and money
“I don't believe in Fine tuning or building any general intelligence models. I think that's a total waste of time and money.”
Gerstner: Z.ai's GLM-5.2 contains watermarks showing distillation from Mythos
“GLM 5.2 has watermarks from mythos all over it, right? So we know they were distilling, etc.”
Gerstner: Trump Accounts are biggest US social contract change since 1935
“It's the largest change to our social contract since 1935 and social security.”
Karp: Enterprise clients have lost trust in frontier AI labs
“Our clients are just, to say they're unhappy with the frontier labs is to say I'm welcome at the Berkeley faculty. It's like, there's just a level of discomfort and loss of trust.”
Karp: Enterprises fear losing IP and getting no value from frontier AI
“The basic view among enterprises in this country is, I'm gonna chillax and waste my time with tokens, I'm gonna get no value, and they're gonna get my IP.”
Sacks: Anthropic CPO resigned from Figma board days before rival launch
“Anthropic's chief product officer had actually even served on Figma's board and didn't resign until three days before the launch of Claude Design.”
Calacanis: Frontier AI platforms will absorb their startup partners' businesses
“If you partner with any of these people, they will slit your throat and take your business wholesale.”
Friedberg: Claims of AI job destruction are an absolute scam
“There is no job loss with AI. It is an absolute scam to tell the world that AI is taking away jobs and destroying jobs and the world is shifting. It is clunky. It is valuable. It is going to take some time and it is going to create far more jobs than it is des…”
Calacanis: Humans will no longer sort or deliver packages in 10 years
“What Optimus is going to do when Bezos and Andy Jassy unleash Optimus inside of the Amazon factories is it's going to get rid of every, let me state this very clearly, every single package sorting, every single package delivery will not be done by humans in 10…”
Chamath: California will face bankruptcy and debt restructuring within 10 years
“Then we're gonna deal with a California bankruptcy in the next 10 years, and it is unfortunately, no, and it will unfortunately result in a complete restructuring of those debt obligations.”
Nate Silver: California's official vote count accurately reflects ballots cast
“I think the California vote count is an accurate tally of the votes that were cast.”
Chamath: OpenAI-backed pro-AI groups beat Anthropic-backed anti-AI groups in key primaries
“In Utah and in New York, there was a couple of very important races where it was essentially anthropic funded anti AI groups, which is again, insane against In some ways, open AI funded pro AI groups and the pro AI groups won.”
Sacks: Mamdani would not have won NYC mayoral election without migrant vote
“Mamdani would not have won the mayoral election in New York if it had just been native-born New Yorkers voting. It was the mass migrant vote in New York that swung it to Mamdani.”
Kalanick: Under-16 social media bans aim to de-anonymize adults for censorship
“The real point of banning under-sixteen is so that you can force adults to identify themselves and de-anonymize themselves so you can set up a full-scale censorship regime, which they're sort of contemplating in the UK.”
Baker: Republican DAs reduce young Black male all-cause mortality by 7%
“There's a study that is uncontested that when you elect a Republican DA, all cause mortality for young black men in that city drops by seven percent.”
Gavin Baker: America is Earth's only vaguely successful multicultural society
“America is awesome, and we're the only vaguely successful multicultural society on planet Earth.”
Ryan Cohen: Committing $500M of personal capital to eBay transaction
“I'm putting five hundred million of my own money into this transaction.”