The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 2,425 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Twitter placed Jay Bhattacharya on a trends blacklist
“And then there were people who were banned from the trends blacklist, including a Stanford professor, Jay Bhattacharya.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 5:28 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Twitter Files prove executives lied about shadowbanning political viewpoints
“You had statement after statement by Twitter executives like Jack Dorsey, like Vijaya, Gadi, like, you know, Yoel and others saying we do not shadow ban. And then they also said, we certainly, this is their emphasis, do not shadow ban on the basis of political…”
David Sacks Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 7:15 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: FBI knew Hunter Biden's laptop was authentic in 2019
“The FBI was given the laptop in 2019 by the lap store, store owner. Those guys have forensics. They have cyber experts. They knew the laptop was real. We know it's real now. Nobody questions that. In fact, the FBI has admitted that the laptop was real and that…”
David Sacks Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 41:13 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Twitter execs maintained hack framing despite internal pushback
“Jim Baker and Vijaya Gotti said, okay, that there were a lot of internal questions about whether that, that Hunter Biden story could be justified under the hacked policy. And there were many legitimate questions raised internally about whether they could maint…”
David Sacks Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 46:51 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Kevin O'Leary received $15 million to represent FTX
“Kevin O'Leary who calls himself Mr. Wonderful was on CNBC trying to defend the fact that he was given This is stunning, by the way, 15 fucking million dollars to be a spokesperson for FTX.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 58:53 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Semafor framed FTX as bank run after taking SBF's money
“And then Semaphore, who was on the take, who received millions of dollars in his money, said it was a run on the bank.”
David Sacks Dec 3, 2022 ▶ 44:53 E106: SBF's media strategy, FTX culpability, ChatGPT, SaaS slowdown & more
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Silicon Valley VCs taught founders how to launch tokens
“There was a lot of venture firms in Silicon Valley in this period of both not doing any work or diligence who also took the extra step and actually created classes and would teach teams how to create these tokens. Okay. And those artifacts, those video links a…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 12, 2022 ▶ 52:26 E104: FTX collapse with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong + election results, macro update & more
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Regulators will investigate top VCs over unregulated token sales
“So if the SEC is really, and the DOJ is really going to take this FTT token issue seriously, and what happened to FTX? They're going to start to look at a bunch of other tokens and token sales, and you're going to end up looking at some very well-known venture…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 12, 2022 ▶ 53:26 E104: FTX collapse with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong + election results, macro update & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: House Progressive Caucus members recanted Ukraine diplomacy letter after backlash
“There was the big event in the Ukraine war debate this week was that the House Progressive Caucus put out a letter signed by 30 progressive members to merely suggest that while we continue to fund Ukraine on a virtually unlimited basis, we also, in parallel, o…”
David Sacks Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 1:06:49 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Assertion Supported
Chamath: BYJU'S lost $600M and booked revenues from unpayable family loans
“Essentially showed instead of like breaking even or making money, they lost almost six hundred million dollars this year, and that a lot of the revenue that they were booking were actually loans to millions of Indian families who had basically zero probability…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 23, 2022 ▶ 14:59 E97: SPAC updates, public/private market overview, Putin's end game & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks claims Boris Johnson advised Ukraine against early peace deal with Russia
“Boris Johnson went to Ukraine and said, no deal, do not take the deal. We need to weaken Putin and Russia, not compromise with them.”
David Sacks Sep 10, 2022 ▶ 27:52 E95: Winter is Coming, Europe's energy crisis, Kim Kardashian's new PE firm & more
Prediction Held up
Sacks: California fast-food wage bill will accelerate automation and cut jobs
“These big chain restaurants are gonna rely even more heavily on automation now, and they're gonna basically employ less of this labor where the price has been artificially raised for that subsector of the economy from 15 to 22 dollars for reasons that no one c…”
David Sacks Sep 1, 2022 ▶ 23:34 E94: NFT volume plummets, California's overreach, FBI meddling, climate change & national security
Assertion Supported
Sacks: US broke 1990 pledge to Gorbachev not to expand NATO eastward
“Baker made the promise to Gorbachev, not one inch eastward. Gorbachev said, yes, ok, they can reunify, but we do not want NATO moving up to our border. Baker made that promise. We have brought NATO up to their border.”
David Sacks Sep 1, 2022 ▶ 1:19:21 E94: NFT volume plummets, California's overreach, FBI meddling, climate change & national security
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Biden's student debt relief will be struck down by Supreme Court
“I expect this to be challenged and taken to the Supreme Court. And I think there's a very good chance that it'll end up like Biden's other executive orders that were ruled unconstitutional.”
David Sacks Aug 26, 2022 ▶ 42:39 E93: Twitter whistleblower, cloud security vulnerabilities, student debt forgiveness & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Democrats spent $44M boosting MAGA candidates in primaries
“So, recently, there's an article about the Democrats have spent 44 Million dollars this election cycle basically running ads in favor of the crazy MAGA candidate in primaries.”
David Sacks Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 20:11 E88: First principle politics, China chaos & outlook, state of private/public markets & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Sri Lanka had a 98 ESG score, beating Sweden and US
“He mentions that Sri Lanka has a near perfect score of 98, higher than Sweden, which is 96, and the U.S. Is a 51.”
David Sacks Jul 14, 2022 ▶ 26:49 E87: Emerging markets, Sri Lanka, 9.1% CPI, market sentiment, NASA's Webb telescope & more
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Dutch government fired shots at protesting farmers
“The government started shooting at them. They got shot.”
David Friedberg Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 49:35 E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
Prediction Held up
Rabois: A flipped Congress will subpoena Twitter over foreign government influence
“But the government, if the U.S. Congress is turned over, there's gonna be a lot of subpoenas flying over to Twitter, because there are absolutely foreign governments influencing some of those decisions at Twitter.”
Keith Rabois May 26, 2022 ▶ 37:26 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
Assertion Supported
Tim Urban: Berkeley and UCLA require diversity statements for chemistry professorships
“Berkeley, right now, and UCLA, and about 20 other schools. If you want to apply to be a chemistry professor, The first thing that you do is you have to fill out a diversity statement, and it's called, that sounds nice, a diversity statement, but it's actually,…”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 42:39 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
Assertion Supported
Greenwald: Nine of ten most populous countries refused to expel Russia
“Here are the top 20 countries by population, and the ones in yellow are the ones who refuse to support the UN resolution expelling Russia from the UN Human Rights Council, and you can see that it's nine out of the 10 Most populous countries”
Glenn Greenwald May 25, 2022 ▶ 18:52 #AIS: Antonio Garcia Martinez & Glenn Greenwald debate Ukraine, moderated by David Sacks
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: Most Black Americans would not directly benefit from student loan forgiveness
“So the majority of the black population would not be directly benefited by student loan forgiveness.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 30, 2022 ▶ 49:04 E78: VC fund metrics that matter, private market update, recession, student loans, Bill Hwang arrest
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Disney CEO Bob Chapek won't survive the year
“I think Bob What's his name? Bob Chapek. I don't think he's going to survive the year after what just happened at Disney, and it's because he gave in to the employees, took sides against the, you know, governor in Florida and the legislature, and they just rip…”
David Sacks Apr 23, 2022 ▶ 17:20 E77: Tech work culture, crypto regulation, stablecoins, $NFLX & more w/ Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong
Prediction Held up
Palihapitiya: Trump will likely be allowed back on Twitter after three years
“I think all roads will probably lead to a conclusion that after three years, it's probably okay to let this guy back and be able to tweet.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 9, 2022 ▶ 58:51 E75: Fast shuts down, board culpability, Elon buys 9% of Twitter, deplatforming's evolution & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Snake Island Ukrainian soldiers surrendered rather than dying fighting
“That was fake. Okay, you had Snake Island where the 13 Ukrainian soldiers said we're gonna bring us death rather than surrender. It turns out they actually surrendered.”
David Sacks Mar 5, 2022 ▶ 51:37 E71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: PayPal worked with ADL and SPLC to de-platform users
“PayPal was taking the lead to financial deep platforming. They were working with the ADL and the SPLC to kick, to just to identify groups to kick off their platform.”
David Sacks Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 54:45 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Tucker Carlson gets more young Democratic viewers than CNN or MSNBC
“Tucker Carlson now gets more young Democrats listening to his show than CNN and MSNBC”
David Sacks Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 1:19:15 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Assertion Supported
Sacks attacks teachers' union leaders for claiming no COVID learning loss
“The heads of the teachers union said there is no learning loss. They are the ones who lobby to shut the schools down.”
David Sacks Jan 22, 2022 ▶ 1:30:42 E64: Antitrust standards & enforcement, tech repricing, lab leak obfuscation, E63 reactions & more
Assertion Supported
Calacanis notes human rights groups report up to 1M Uyghurs incarcerated
“That is the numbers that human rights organizations are saying between 300,000 and a million people are incarcerated right now being tortured, raped, and in doing forced sterilization reeducation, and when they're released are being tracked in ghettos.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 15, 2022 ▶ 19:12 E63: Insurrection indictments, human rights in the US and abroad, groundbreaking MS study and more
Assertion Supported
Sacks asserts more U.S. COVID deaths occurred under Biden than Trump
“More Americans have already died from COVID under Joe Biden than Donald Trump.”
David Sacks Dec 29, 2021 ▶ 43:50 E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more
Assertion Supported
Jan Crawford notes healthy teenagers face minimal risk of COVID-19 death
“A healthy teenager has a one in a million chance of getting and dying from COVID, which is way lower than, you know, dying in a car wreck on a road trip.”
Jan Crawford Dec 29, 2021 ▶ 49:11 E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more
Prediction Held up
Calacanis predicts SF District Attorney Chesa Boudin will be recalled
“Chesa Boudin and all of these Whack jobs are all going to get voted out and recalled.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 46:10 E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars
Prediction Held up
Calacanis predicts Joe Biden's presidency will be 'one and done'
“I think that this presidency is one and done obviously to everybody.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 1:38:14 E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: Children born during the pandemic experienced a 22 IQ point drop
“Children born during the pandemic have experienced a catastrophic drop in cognitive development of 22 IQ points.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 17, 2021 ▶ 40:45 E59: Twitter's content warning algo, equity audits, politicians trading stocks, Fed's next move
Assertion Supported
David Sacks cites CBO report stating Build Back Better costs $5 trillion.
“Just today, we got a report from CBO saying that this Build Back Better bill wasn't going to cost two trillion, like the administration said. It's going to cost five trillion and add three trillion to the deficit.”
David Sacks Dec 11, 2021 ▶ 9:49 E58: November's CPI, preparing for a downturn, macro outlook, Better.com's botched layoffs & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Haugen's whistleblower push was a coordinated political operation
“This was coordinated. She's got a Democrat, a well-known Democratic operative named Bill Burton working for her. She's got a team of lawyers. She's got a PR team. This whole thing.”
David Sacks Oct 9, 2021 ▶ 45:21 E50: Crypto investing deep dive, Facebook's whistleblower fallout, Chappelle's new special & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: YouTube removed 1M COVID videos over dissenting views
“YouTube just took down a million COVID videos because they disagree with official position on COVID.”
David Sacks Oct 9, 2021 ▶ 49:01 E50: Crypto investing deep dive, Facebook's whistleblower fallout, Chappelle's new special & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Russian 2016 Facebook ad impressions were an infinitesimal fraction of total
“When you actually look at the number of impressions that were created by the sum total of all of the so, the so-called disinformation of all these ads, It is a fractionally small, infinitesimal drop in the ocean compared to the total number impressions on Face…”
David Sacks Sep 25, 2021 ▶ 1:15:48 Balaji Srinivasan: role of decentralization, China/US breakdown & more
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Proposed EV tax credit gives non-union Tesla $4,500 less
“The 12,000 dollar credit that they're giving to or they're proposing to give to all EV manufacturers is only if you have union employees It's 4500 less to Tesla.”
Jason Calacanis Sep 14, 2021 ▶ 27:27 E46: False Ivermectin narratives, regulatory grift, wartime mentality in solving issues & more
Prediction Held up
Sacks predicts the Supreme Court will invalidate Texas' SB8 abortion law
“And I think regardless of what you think about abortion, this law will eventually be invalidated by the Supreme Court or a lower court on that ground that they're allowing people to sue without standing.”
David Sacks Sep 4, 2021 ▶ 44:02 E45: Theranos & VC fraud risks, China bans video games, Texas SB8, Apple app store, CA fires, Rogan
Assertion Supported
Sacks claims Biden administration coordinates social media bans with Big Tech
“She just sort of casually mentioned that, oh yeah, by the way, the administration is flagging posts for a social media company, for big tech companies to take down, to remove. And posts, yeah, and she just kind of meant, Just casually mentions, oh yeah, the bi…”
David Sacks Jul 23, 2021 ▶ 51:49 E41: Vaccine policy, Big Tech, DeepMind's latest breakthrough, wealth creation, opportunity & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Newsom falsely claimed 90k treated acres versus 11k actual
“Newsom was recently caught in a lie saying that, you know, they had basically treated 90,000 acres. This is what this article I'll put in the chat said. In reality, that only really treated about 11,000 acres.”
David Sacks Jul 9, 2021 ▶ 14:51 E39: West coast super drought & climate crisis, Nuclear virtue signaling, chaos in SF & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Chesa Boudin has not successfully prosecuted a single murder trial
“Listen, Chesa has not had time. He's almost two years in office now, and he has not had time to successfully prosecute one murder trial, not one, but his office has time to run down whatever they were trying to run down with J-Cal.”
David Sacks Jul 9, 2021 ▶ 55:21 E39: West coast super drought & climate crisis, Nuclear virtue signaling, chaos in SF & more
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Study shows COVID lockdowns had no effect on US reproduction rate
“A recent paper showed that lockdowns had no effect. On the reproduction rate in the United States”
David Friedberg Jul 3, 2021 ▶ 39:27 E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: Delta variant will not crush US hospital system or cause massive fatalities
“There are enough people, people vaccinated in the United States at this point that this Delta variant is not going to crush our hospital system. It's not going to cause massive amount of fatalities, which is the reason we went into lockdowns in the first place…”
David Friedberg Jul 3, 2021 ▶ 49:36 E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more
Prediction Held up
Sacks: UC system will never bring back SAT or ACT requirements
“And the University of California system has now abandoned the SAT and ACT. So they temporarily got rid of those requirements during the pandemic, but now they've used it as an excuse. They've never wasted a crisis. And now they say they're not bringing back th…”
David Sacks May 22, 2021 ▶ 32:01 E33: Apple’s hypocrisy, America fails math, crypto’s regulatory correction, Clubhouse, UFOs & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks claims actual outdoor COVID transmission rate is under one percent
“The CDC continues to suggest that outdoor transmission accounts for up to 10% of cases when the real number is certainly under one percent is probably under .1%.”
David Sacks May 13, 2021 ▶ 28:07 E32: Behind the scenes of Elon hosting SNL, CDC failures, America's real-time UBI experiment & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks says San Francisco school board opened one day for $12M
“It's like the school board in San Francisco announcing they're going to open school for one day to qualify for incentives for reopening that Gavin Newsom gave them for twelve million bucks.”
David Sacks May 13, 2021 ▶ 57:45 E32: Behind the scenes of Elon hosting SNL, CDC failures, America's real-time UBI experiment & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Data shows state lockdowns do not reduce COVID-19 death rates
“There's really no correlation between death rates for COVID per capita and the severity of lockdowns. Basically, the data shows that lockdowns don't have an impact on a state's success in battling COVID.”
David Sacks Apr 17, 2021 ▶ 57:10 E29: Coinbase goes public, direct listings vs. IPOs, unions & more with Bestie Guestie Brad Gerstner
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