The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,425 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sacks: Media coverage was 84% positive for Harris, 89% negative for Trump
“The media's coverage of the Harris campaign was 84% positive, whereas the coverage of the Trump campaign was 89% negative.”
Friedberg: Trump effectively secured the 2024 election after the assassination attempt
“I think the first thing I thought after I saw the video and saw that he was okay and that his ear was bleeding was that's it. It's over. Trump's won.”
Sacks: Reid Hoffman's political advisor claimed Trump shooting was staged
“Some people like Reid Hoffman's political hack was actually claiming that it was all staged, which is just unbelievably ridiculous.”
Sacks: Biden said days before shooting to put Trump in bullseye
“However, Biden himself, days before the shooting, said that it was time to put Trump in the bullseye.”
Sacks: Kamala Harris is the only candidate option if Biden exits
“We are gonna get President Kamala Harris. She's the only alternative.”
Sacks claims American cluster bombs killed Russian civilians in Crimea
“American cluster bombs were used to kill Russian civilians sunbathing on the beach in Crimea.”
Sacks: Biden administration pressured social media companies to remove user speech
“And basically what that case was about was the Biden administration was engaged in attempts To influence or pressure social media companies to take down speech. It's a practice known as jawboning.”
Sacks: DOJ heavily prosecuted hundreds of nonviolent January 6 participants
“They took hundreds of people who did not engage in any violence on January six. Many of them just wandered through an open door in the capital, and they were prosecuted to the hilt.”
Calacanis predicts Joe Biden will exit the presidential race within 30 days
“I just, I'm telling you right now, he is not going to be in this race in the next 30 days.”
Calacanis guarantees Democrats will replace Biden on 2024 presidential ticket
“I guarantee you hot swap is coming. I predicted the Trump TV flip, and I predict it now.”
Sacks confronts Khosla over his legal fight to block public beach access
“You are the one who is fighting a legal battle to kick some of those people, the public. Kick the public off of the public beach in front of your beach house.”
Democrats will replace Joe Biden as nominee within 60 days
“I believe that's what's going to happen in the next 30 to 60 days, so I'm predicting.”
Internal NIH emails suggest COVID-19 leaked from a BSL-2 facility
“There are internal NIH emails that suggest that COVID leaked from a level two facility. They call it BSL two, which does not operate with the top level biohazard safeguards.”
Sacks: DNC lawyers will fight to keep RFK Jr. off swing state ballots
“I think what you're gonna see is that lawyers from the DNC and the Biden campaign are gonna fight tooth and nail to keep this ticket off the ballot, at least in the major contested states, like the five or six states. Where the presidency will be decided in 20…”
Calacanis: Sam Altman was sole owner of OpenAI Venture Fund
“He started a venture fund to invest in companies called the OpenAI Ventures Fund, and he was the sole owner of it, which they're saying now it's a clerical mistake or something, but he's invested in a bunch of startups that have unique access to the OpenAI, yo…”
Calacanis: Google's Gemini AI refused to generate images of white people
“But earlier this week, users on X started noticing that Gemini would not generate images of white people, even when prompted.”
Sacks predicts US strikes in Yemen will trigger war with Iran
“So I don't think this is going to have any impact other than to escalate the conflict in the Middle East and put us on a path to war with Iran, which is really where the neocons want to take us. You've heard, obviously, the warmongers like Lindsey Graham are c…”
Sacks: US airstrikes won't deter Houthis, will trigger direct US retaliation
“I mean, the Houthis have been at war on and off With the Saudis for a decade, and the Saudis been backed by Western weapons, and we have not been able to defeat the Houthis. So this missile strike last night is not gonna deter them. It's not gonna stop them. T…”
Chamath: Bitcoin ETFs are days away and Bitcoin will reach mainstream adoption in 2024
“We are probably days away from a series of ETFs being approved And so this is the moment for Bitcoin to use that old term, cross the chasm, and really see mainstream adoption, where our parents and our grandparents understand what it is, can buy it, and then d…”
Chamath: Trump will easily win the 2024 Republican nomination
“I think he is going to run away with the Republican nomination, and barring some catastrophic meltdown, has a better chance to get into the White House than before this Colorado case.”
Chamath: US excess deaths in 2023 spiked 20-26% among young adults
“158,000 more Americans died than expected, which is more than all the wars combined in Vietnam, and when you look at where those death rates are, those death rates were coming from 35 to 44 year olds, which was up 26%, and 25 to 34 year olds, which was up 20% …”
Chamath: VC funds often return less than the S&P 500
“Why take on 15 year illiquidity for oftentimes funds that return less than the S and P, which is the dirty little secret of Silicon Valley.”
Sacks: Twitter Files showed 80 FBI agents sending platform takedown requests
“Once that censorship power was created, It attracted powerful entities from our government who wanted to co-opt and use that power. That's what we saw in the Twitter files with the 80 FBI agents sending takedown requests.”
Tucker Carlson predicts Joe Biden will not be the 2024 Democratic nominee
“I don't think Biden can be the nominee. His only point was to You know, stop Bernie Sanders, basically, and he's outlifted his usefulness, so I think he'll be, I'm pretty sure he'll be replaced”
Phillips: 75% of Americans agree Biden cannot continue leading the country
“But do I think that he will be in a position to continue leading this country in the future? I do not. I think I'm joined by about 75% of the country, in saying that.”
Sacks predicts Trump will waltz into the White House in 2024
“By the way, I mean, at this rate, the way things are going in this country right now, both economically and internationally, he's gonna waltz into the White House. He's gonna spend all of his time in the next year in, in the courthouses battling all of these l…”
Henderson: Childhood instability drives worse outcomes for kids than poverty
“Childhood instability is, is worse than childhood poverty for future outcomes. So, in terms of criminality or educational attainment growing up in a very unstable environment is actually worse than impoverishment, and even when you control for income instabili…”
Sacks: Ukrainian government incorporated Azov Battalion into its official military
“Far-right paramilitary organizations like Right Sector and like the infamous Azov Battalion start killing these ethnic Russian separatists, and a full-blown civil war breaks out, thousands of people get killed. Does the Kiev government suppress these neo-Nazi …”
Gurley: FDA antigen test chief previously worked at Quidel and Abbott
“Now, he works for the FDA, and he runs the group that oversees which antigen test gets approved. I know this because he would write scathing letters to the ones he rejected that you can also look up online. Now, guess what? You're not going to be surprised. Fi…”
Christie: Soros group is electing liberal prosecutors who refuse to prosecute
“This is the Soros group going around and electing these completely liberal prosecutors who say, no, I don't, I'm not going to prosecute these crimes anymore.”
Christie: Kushner and Ivanka made $40M+ yearly in White House, $2B from Saudis
“Jared and Ivanka making 40 plus million dollars a year while they were in the White House, getting two billion from the Saudis to invest after they leave the White House”
Sacks: Prosecutions will send Donald Trump to prison or the White House
“They're either gonna send Donald Trump to the big house or to the White House.”
Sacks claims Anthony Fauci funded gain-of-function research in Wuhan
“Fauci had funded gain of function research in the Wuhan lab.”
Sacks: Trump will win election subversion case if it reaches Supreme Court
“I think if he has to take the Supreme Court, he's going to win it because it's just a novel legal theory.”
Sacks: Average low-skill immigrant household creates $20,000 net government fiscal deficit
“If you look at the cost of low-skill immigration, the average low-skill immigrant household receives approximately 30,000 dollars in direct benefits from the government. By contrast, these households only pay about 10,000 dollars in taxes. So even though Those…”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts Chinese stimulus will prevent a US hard landing
“And the reason there's not going to be a hard landing is you just saw China today basically say we're going to start to rip in trillions of dollars. They're going to stimulate the economy. You can't have a hard landing when China's printing trillions of dollar…”
Sacks: Soros funds local DAs to alter laws via prosecutorial discretion
“He went into cities where he doesn't live. And flooded the zone with money to get his preferred candidate elected as DA. Now, the reason he did that was to change the law. And the way that he changed the law was not through legislatures, the way you're suppose…”
Sacks notes an email shows intelligence letter was a Biden talking point
“There's an email now that just came out. Where Mike Morrell is corresponding with John Brennan, and Morrell specifically says, we're creating the letter to give Biden a talking point in the debate.”
RFK Jr. asserts the US broke a pledge not to expand NATO east
“We gave our word that we would not expand NATO one inch to the east, and now we've gone into 13 countries.”
Sacks: Former employee claimed Google trained its AI using ChatGPT
“And the proof of that is there was just a lawsuit a couple of days ago, or at least a claim by a former employee of Google who quit because he said that they were using ChatGPT to train Their AI.”
Sacks: U.S. Ukraine spending run rate exceeds the Afghanistan war rate
“I know the spending run rate of this war is actually greater than what we did in Afghanistan and Afghanistan ended up being a. 20 year multi-trillion dollar operation that just flushed all that money down the drain.”
Sacks: Fed inaction over weekend could spark regional bank runs
“Unless the Fed steps in here over the weekend, we're going to see potentially a run on the regional banking system, a Cascade like we saw in 2008.”
Sacks: FBI, CIA send big tech instructions via Teleporter
“The deep state, the, you know, the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security, even the CIA is having weekly meetings with these big tech companies, not just Twitter, but we know like a whole panoply of them, and basically giving them disappearing instructions t…”
Calacanis predicts generative AI will enable founders to build MVPs without developers
“These two things are gonna come together where you're gonna be able to build your MVP for your startup by typing in text and then publish it. You're not gonna need a developer for your startup.”
Friedberg: Moderna vaccine myocarditis risk up to 30x higher in young people
“The incidence rate is still typically less than two out of every 100,000 people that get the vaccine. But as you saw in the paper you just shared and others have validated it can be as high as 30 times more likely to happen in young people that take the Modern…”
Sacks: Exxon is a top-ranked ESG company while Tesla is excluded
“Here's all you have to know about ESG is that Exxon is like the number seven, like top-ranked company according to ESG, and Tesla isn't even on the list.”
Sacks predicts Supreme Court will strike down university affirmative action policies
“I think the majority will rule to strike down these policies That really discriminate against Asian Americans, and I think they're the last group in America where it seems to be okay to discriminate against, and I think the Supreme Court is gonna find that unc…”