The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 106 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 10 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chamath predicts Tesla will have a credible autonomous solution in five years
“So I do trust that they'll have a credible solution in the next four or five years.”
Musk: Tesla replacing 300,000 lines of C++ control code with neural networks
“We've got the final piece of the puzzle, which is to have the control part of the car transition from about 300,000 lines of C++ code to also neural network. So, the, you know, the whole system will be neural network.”
Chamath: Meta spent more on Reality Labs than Apple spent building iPhone
“Look, Tesla's reinventing an entire category, trillions of dollars of energy generation and transportation, but they did it on in one year of meta reality lab spend. Apple reinvented an entire compute platform on one quarter of Meta's Reality Lab spend.”
Gracias: Valor held fracking assets in the same fund as Tesla
“And in the same fund we did Tesla, we actually had fracking assets.”
Litinsky predicts Tesla or other EV makers will acquire upstream miners
“So what's going to happen is, I think you're going to see maybe an AOL Time Warner moment, and I don't mean it the negative way, but I think you could see a Tesla or someone like that buy upstream Outstream into these industries because ultimately downstream t…”
Musk predicts Tesla FSD beta will reach one million users in 2022
“We've got like a 100,000 people in the beta, so it's not tiny and we'll be expanding that to, I don't know, probably a million people or a million, I don't know, on that order by the end of the year.”
Musk: Tesla had no employees or IP when he joined
“I, when I joined, there were no, no employees, there was no intellectual property, there was no prototype, there was no nothing.”
Chamath: Global supply chain disruptions will be resolved by early 2023
“So I think we're dealing with a, you know, six to nine month issue of having turned things off and are now rapidly trying to turn things back on and we can't necessarily get that timing right. But I do think it'll work itself out faster than people expect pers…”
Friedberg: Elon Musk is the only hype man who delivers in deep tech
“There's only one hype man on planet Earth that is good enough to pull this off and actually deliver the goods at the end of the day. It's probably Elon, like, because, you know, he funded these businesses that were deep tech businesses, Tesla and SpaceX. For m…”
Chamath predicts Tesla car prices will increase by 20 to 30 percent
“And so the cost of Tesla's are going to go up by 20 or 30%.”
Friedberg: Retail belief in stock value can create actual business success
“A stock is worth the underlying value of the company. And that that's not true. People can dream a stock to be anything. As they did with Tesla at the time that people were buying Tesla stock, the historical performance of that business was not what hedge fund…”
Stephens: Tesla is the only 21st-century company to achieve scaled manufacturing
“The at scale manufacturing for a new company started in the, this century in the 2000. There's really only one that comes to mind, just Tesla. That's it.”
Tesla currently intends to launch its robotaxi network independently without Uber
“At this point they're looking to go it alone”
Musk: Tesla AI5 silicon will improve 40x over AI4
“By some metrics, the improvement in AI five will be 40 times better than AI four.”
Chamath claims Tesla has the best vision models in AI
“I think that Tesla has the best vision models.”
Friedberg: Direct sunlight on cameras triggers emergency Tesla FSD disengagements
“Well, there's a lot of videos getting posted on Twitter of FSD being on and then the car drives into the sunlight and at a certain angle when the sun hits the cameras, the car goes into an emergency disconnect on FSD. And I've had that happen. So I know it's t…”
Baker: Building vast numbers of humanoid robots will take a long time
“I think it's going to be a long time before we have hundreds of millions of robots. You know, even between China and Tesla, I think it's going to take a long time to make vast numbers of humanoid robots.”
Calacanis predicts Tesla and Google will be 2025's biggest business winners
“My biggest business winner prediction for 2025 is Tesla and Google.”
Chamath: Ride-sharing is Tesla's highest-potential future business line
“Ride sharing. The absolute probably by an order of magnitude.”
Sacks: Apple acquiring Tesla during the Model 3 rollout would've been smart
“That would have been a smart acquisition if they had done that.”
Musk: Tesla's entire self-driving AI software team is 200 people
“The entire self-driving AI software team is 200 people.”
Elon Musk: Tesla has about 4M cars on the road with AI inference chips
“We've got somewhere in the order of four million cars that have high-speed AI inference computers in them.”
Chamath: Elon Musk leads companies with female top executives across Tesla, Twitter, SpaceX
“He has a female chairman at Tesla, a female CEO at Twitter, and a female president at SpaceX.”
Chamath: Apple should have acquired Tesla for $4B-$5B
“They should have bought Tesla when they could have the chance for four or five billion dollars.”
David Sacks calls Tesla the best car in the world
“He created the world's best car, not just the world's best electric car, but I just think it's the best car in the world.”
SpaceX and Tesla avoided 2008 bankruptcy by paying suppliers late
“I mean, both SpaceX and Tesla in 2008, if we'd simply paid our suppliers on time, we would have gone bankrupt immediately.”
Chamath: Singapore investor made $7B in two years trading Tesla calls
“There's a gentleman, a 66 year old man in Singapore, who's a billionaire, right? So he was successful in his own right. However, he had made in his entire career about one or two billion. And he has made seven billion in the last two years, speculating on Tesl…”
Calacanis: Elon Musk reduced carbon emissions more than anyone in private sector
“Elon has done more for global warming with Tesla than anybody in the in the battery packs, I think in modern society, I can't think of somebody In the private sector, who's done more?”
Chamath: Tesla investors buy Elon Musk like a trading card
“People were buying Elon, like they would buy a trading card. And Tesla is a manifestation of Elon.”
Chamath: Karpathy spent 25% of his time hand-labeling Tesla video data
“He spent a portion of his time. I want to say a quarter of his time labeling data. Could you imagine like 20, 1617, like hand labeling video data from Tesla's.”
Benioff: Tesla is sole foreign automaker in China without local partner
“Elon has Tesla in China. No partnership. He's the only one.”
Kalanick: Tesla Hardware 5 will probably launch next year
“Hardware five is coming out on Tesla probably next year, which is going to make a big difference in what FSD can do.”
Applied Intuition supplies software to legacy automakers lagging behind Tesla
“It's a company that supplies software primarily to all the legacy car manufacturers that have not managed this transition to being software first, like Tesla has shown the way and this startup.”
Chamath's battery materials startup secured a $100M DOE grant
“I started a company with these guys from Tesla to make battery materials in the United States in 2019. We grind, we put in tens, I put in tens of millions of dollars... And then we applied again on some success and we got a hundred million dollar grant.”
Sacks: Self-driving technology will get bigger and bigger next year
“Yeah, I think this is the year that self-driving finally broke through. Obviously, Tesla's got full self-driving, but also this Waymo One app, people are going wild over it, so I think this is the year that self-driving broke through, and I think next year's g…”
Chamath: Omid Afshar leads Tesla manufacturing and sales in North America
“I think he's in charge of all manufacturing and sales in North America.”
Friedberg says Tesla Optimus has highest upside but highest risk
“I think the Optimus has the highest alpha, but the highest beta. So, you know, more upside than anything else, just unclear how you get there, what the path is and the capital requirements.”
Calacanis: 73% of Tesla shareholders approved Musk's 2018 pay package
“In 2018, Tesla's board approved a performance-based compensation package for Elon. It was approved by 73% of shareholders.”
Chamath: Tesla warned of a significantly different demand curve in Q1
“Tesla put out a pretty important missive at the end of market close yesterday, which essentially said that expect a very different demand curve in Q one.”
Chamath: Tim Cook famously refused to meet with Elon Musk about acquiring Tesla
“Tim Cook famously wouldn't take the meeting. Elon said it. He wouldn't meet with them.”
Chamath: Elon Musk sold $3.8B of Tesla stock
“We saw yesterday that he had to sell another 3.8 billion dollars of Tesla stock.”
Chamath: Tesla spent $25 billion total before reaching free cash flow profitability
“Tesla in its entire life spent twenty five billion to get free cash flow profitability”
Friedberg: Saudi Aramco made $48B net profit in a single quarter
“Saudi Aramco reported their earnings. The largest earnings ever for a company Forty-eight billion dollars of net profit in a quarter. That is more profit than Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, and Tesla combined in a single quarter.”
Valor doubled down on Tesla and SpaceX during the 2008 crisis
“We put more money in Tesla than we were in the financial crisis, and then helped lead a convert round there that was really tough for us to do, and then put money in SpaceX.”
Tesla acquired the Fremont factory because it was essentially free
“Look, I, we at Tesla took over the, this Fremont factory was a former GM Toyota factory, And, you know, we retooled it. It was, look, we, it would have been, we had to do it because we didn't have any money, and it was free, basically.”
Palihapitiya: Nevada lithium deposit could supply 1.5M EVs by 2030
“There's a massive deposit of lithium in Nevada, Which would be enough to basically feed Tesla and another OEM, okay? So this would get probably somewhere between one and one and a half million cars, pure electric on the road by 2030.”
Musk: Tesla closed 2008 round on Christmas Eve hours before bouncing payroll
“And then we closed that round at six PM Christmas Eve, 2008. It was last hour of the last day that it was possible because after that people were like, I'm breaking for the holidays and we would have bounced payroll two days after Christmas.”