The Calls
Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
Everyone Chamath Palihapitiya (116)Jason Calacanis (75)David Sacks (67)David Friedberg (61)Brad Gerstner (17)Gavin Baker (11)Elon Musk (9)Howard Lutnick (5)Dr. Mehmet Oz (5)Donald J. Trump (5)Cathie Wood (5)Ray Dalio (4)
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The record (100) every resolved claim →
Friedberg: Kevin Warsh will modernize Fed data to real-time digital systems
“You could probably make a bet or an investment on the idea that Kevin Warsh will lead the Fed to a new digital, better data system, more streamlined, more frequent, better data.”
Friedberg: Advanced AI models will ultimately run locally on iPhones
“Ultimately these things end up on the iPhone running locally, and you don't need to go to the cloud.”
Friedberg predicts economic growth will produce the world's first trillionaire
“And I think that some folks will see people go from being billionaires to hundred billionaires to the world's first trillionaire.”
Friedberg: Developers will create AI models tailored to specific religious beliefs
“I do think we'll end up seeing religious AI. I think we'll see AI that's Cue into people's religious ways”
Friedberg predicts Israel will take further military action against Iran
“I can tell you, I don't think the Israelis are gonna sit by quietly and allow this Iranian regime to continue to go out and build up a military that's constantly shouting death to Israel, death to the USA, And I think that they've taken their first shot and I …”
Friedberg: China will tariff US agriculture, requiring massive farm bailouts
“There will be, as there was in the first Trump presidency, very likely very large transfer payments made to farmers, because China is very likely going to tariff imports or stop making Import purchases altogether”
Friedberg: Microplastics problem will trigger FDA and EPA regulatory reviews
“So the microplastic problem is something that will certainly trigger A bunch of FDA review, a bunch of EPA review.”
Friedberg: Removing ship sulfur emissions doubles ocean warming rate
“By removing sulfur dioxide, we are now going to see a doubling of the rate of warming of the oceans in the twenty-twenties and going forward.”
Friedberg: Europe's $30B ITER fusion system will be online by 2030
“And by the way, the biggest funding is happening in ITER, which is the largest construction project in Europe. And this is a thirty billion dollar Production-scale fusion demonstration system that should be online by the end of the twenty-twenties.”
Friedberg: Energy monetization ramp-up won't cover US deficit within 4 years
“But I'm not sure that the ramp up is gonna be fast enough to make up for the deficit over the next four years.”
Friedberg: Texas and other states will follow Florida's cultivated meat ban
“The problem is now that Florida's done this, I guarantee you're gonna see Texas, which is a huge ranching state, And many other states step up to do it.”
Friedberg: Trump's $5M Gold Card program will max out at 10,000 buyers
“I think there's probably 10,000 max buyers of this thing, is my answer.”
Friedberg: Expect a federal preemption challenge against California's EV mandate
“Well, this is where there'll be a federal preemption challenge, I think, of California.”
Friedberg: 100-year storms will happen every two to three years
“And those continuously warmer oceans means that we're going to have what used to be called a one in 500 year storm, which is what Asheville is being termed at one in 500 year. These sorts of storm events can happen every couple years. And we're now looking at …”
Friedberg: China will not force TikTok to shut down
“I don't agree that the Chinese government will shut it down.”
Friedberg: Global helium supply shock incoming as Qatari exports halt
“A third of the world's helium coming out of Qatar is not making it out. And so we're now going to have a helium supply shock that's going to affect the world.”
Friedberg: US is highly unlikely to send military forces to Ukraine
“I think to Sax's point, it's highly unlikely we're gonna end up sending military.”
Friedberg: California wealth tax initiative will not make the ballot
“I don't think it's gonna make the ballot. I mean, look, I think it's not, I'm not saying a hundred percent, I'm saying slight overweight, but it's not gonna get there.”
Friedberg: Prompt-generated custom AI video games are 3-4 years away
“And then the more exciting one, I think, is when do we all get to make our own AI video game? Where we instruct the video game platform, what world we want to live in. I don't think that's happening for the next three or four years.”
Friedberg: Huawei will challenge Nvidia in 2026 using undisclosed lithography tech
“My early prediction for twenty-twenty-six is Huawei, where I think that there's lithography technology, that exists in China that is not publicly discussed, that is going to be deployed in Huawei and all these fabs that they're building in mainland China.”
Friedberg: Huawei will deploy undisclosed lithography to rival top chips by 2026
“My early prediction for 20, 26 is Huawei where I think that there's a lithography technology that exists in China that is not publicly discussed. That is going to be deployed in Huawei and all these fabs that they're building in mainland China. And Huawei can …”
Friedberg: Omicron variant will spread globally very fast
“One thing that seems pretty certain, this variant is going to be everywhere fast, like it is so transmissible by some estimates.”
Friedberg: COVID-19 will become seasonal like flu and won't be eradicated
“It'll be a seasonal disease, and it'll, it'll, it'll be something like the flu in terms of how it cycles each year. And it seems unlikely that it's going to be eradicated through vaccination.”
Friedberg predicts California wealth tax will not reach the ballot
“I don't think it's going to get on the ballot.”
Friedberg: Litigation will eventually establish clear legal standards for crypto utility tokens
“And this will probably be litigated at some point, right? I'm sure there'll be enough capital sloshing around here that someone will say, you know what, we believe strong. I mean, we're seeing this happen with ripple already. But someone will litigate this and…”
Friedberg: COVID-19 will become an endemic virus circulating long-term
“This is, you know, as we talked about earlier, and as I think everyone is coming to terms with, this is going to be an endemic virus, and that means that it's going to be circulating in the population in a modest way, causing sometimes severe, sometimes, you k…”
Friedberg predicts everyone will soon need a third COVID-19 booster shot
“I think we're going to need to do a booster very soon for everyone, and we're going to need to get a third shot.”
Friedberg: Google will replicate Anthropic Cowork within 90 days
“I will also say that it's only going to take 90 days for Google to flip on a virtual version of co-work.”
Friedberg: US vaccination rate will cap at 60% to 65%
“I think 60% probably. Yeah. Yeah. I would guess, 6060, 65%.”
Friedberg: COVID-19 will persist in the US for years and never hit zero
“And because some number of people will continue to have COVID, we're going to have COVID in the United States for years to come. It is not going to go to zero.”
Friedberg: TikTok will be forced to spin off to US investors
“I think they're probably gonna have to spin this thing out. And if they hold any equity, if the Chinese parent company holds any equity interest, it'll probably be non-voting shares. And there'll be a mandate that the majority of the shares and some degree of …”
Friedberg: Federal preemption will override state cultivated meat bans within years
“What will likely end up happening here is this will find its path to federal preemption. Historically, when we've seen states try to impose these sorts of bans, the companies that are ultimately affected, the innovators that are affected, go to the federal gov…”
Friedberg: Record VC dry powder will force unprecedented deployment within three years
“The total VC capital raised last year, I think was a record high. That means there's a lot more cash that needs to kind of be deployed in the next 12 to 36 months than has ever been deployed in, in the history of venture.”
Friedberg: California Gavin Newsom recall effort likely to reach election
“It seems pretty likely that this recall effort is gonna get the signatures it needs, so we can kind of put that in the sand, that it's very likely we're gonna end up seeing a recall election.”
Friedberg predicts Waymo will execute a major financing, IPO, or merger
“You could see something happen with Waymo this year that could either be something like a massive financing, an IPO, or a merger or acquisition with one of the big ride-sharing companies. I don't know if that makes as much strategic sense as I've thought about…”
Friedberg predicts the Trump administration will reach a trade deal with China
“And I think that they're going to get a deal done given the position with China. I think that they're very likely to kind of get a deal done.”
Friedberg: US debt could reach $40 trillion by end of 2025
“Plus, the Biden administration has proposed a 7.2 trillion dollar budget for next year, which will inevitably lead to another two trillion dollars of deficit spending, which means that by the end of 2025, we could be staring at 40 trillion dollars of federal d…”
Friedberg predicts SBF will be sentenced to multiple hundreds of years
“I think it's going to be a hundred multiple hundreds of years sentence i agree and you'll be gone for life”
Friedberg: TikTok will soon be bigger than YouTube
“Look at how big TikTok has gotten. It is bigger than YouTube almost, or will be soon.”
Friedberg: Brian Niccol will simplify Starbucks' menu within his first year
“I think one of the first things you're going to see from nickel within the first year at Starbucks is a reduction in the complexity of the menu.”
David Friedberg predicts a US-China grand deal within Trump's first six months
“This kind of also leads to what I think will be The grand deal with China, which I think will happen in the first six months of the Trump administration.”
Friedberg: Trump effectively secured the 2024 election after the assassination attempt
“I think the first thing I thought after I saw the video and saw that he was okay and that his ear was bleeding was that's it. It's over. Trump's won.”
Friedberg: Meta's open-source AI will kill $500M model startup funding
“By open sourcing these models, they limit competition because VCs are no longer going to plow half a billion dollars into a foundational model development company.”
Friedberg predicts a grand U.S.-China deal within a couple months
“It's gonna be part of the, this is gonna be part of the big deal with China when they do this grand deal, and I think it's gonna take a couple months, but it's gonna be a grand deal.”
Friedberg: US COVID-19 fatality rate will likely be 0.15% to 1.8%
“If I were to put my money on this, look, I'm a betting guy. I would be a little bit nervous at this point, but I'd say it's probably somewhere between .15 and call it 1.8%, you know, call it, that's an order of magnitude, I know. So, you know, but you could do…”
Friedberg: Major IP owners like Disney will license content to AI in 2024
“Rights holder is getting licensing deals for generative AI, or there's gonna be a couple of blockbuster deals this year. Where you'll see like Disney license out a chunk of their library.”
Friedberg: Turkey faces risk of being challenged in NATO in 2024
“I think there's a risk that Turkey gets challenged to leave NATO. That a lot of what's going on right now where Turkey is siding with Hamas, this has obviously been talked about and rumored about for a long time. There's no real mechanism, by the way, for kick…”
Friedberg predicts Global X Uranium ETF (URA) will be a top performer
“Oh, I took the uranium ETF. Easy money. Whether it plays out in the next 12 months or over time, I'm not sure. It's just an inevitability.”
Friedberg: Personalized generative AI news products will launch in 2024
“I do think it's going to happen in 20, 24, where a series of products will come out that start to look like this and it'll get”
David Friedberg predicts cell-based sushi will be available to consumers by 2025
“You'll have a piece of sushi in three years.”
Friedberg predicts Trump might skip all primary debates and win
“I don't know if he's going to show up. I don't know why he would, if he's up. I mean, it would be, it would just be such a Trump move to just not show up to any of these debates and just like get elected.”
Friedberg: Record Atlantic ocean temperatures will drive massive hurricanes by autumn 2024
“So if this does not taper off or level off, we will see record sea surface temperatures in the August to October timeframe, which will almost certainly push massive hurricane events out of the Atlantic, and they will find their way towards the continental U.S.…”
Friedberg: LP capital and startup funding will fall significantly in aggregate
“On a day to day basis, it means there's gonna be less companies that are going to get funded, but more importantly, it's gonna be less LP money going into venture. And there's going to be less capital available to fund startups in aggregate by a significant am…”
Friedberg: Apple's next mobile devices will feature chips running AI models locally
“I think you're gonna see a chip on the next set of mobile devices by Apple that will run models locally.”
Friedberg: Federal government will launch structured lending program for CRE sector
“My prediction is the federal government is going to help to monetize that debt, and they're going to help to support that commercial real estate sector through some sort of structured lending program.”
Friedberg: Dean Phillips stands no chance in primary if Biden runs
“I think if Joe Biden runs, he obviously doesn't stand a chance just based on the structural issues that he described.”
Friedberg predicts Jeff Bezos will announce he is becoming Blue Origin CEO
“My prediction is Bezos is going to come back, and he's going to announce that he's going to be the CEO of Blue Origin.”
Friedberg: Chocolate shrinkflation and price hikes will appear within months
“They're talking about cutting the size of their chocolate bars, raising prices, and starting to use other ingredients. So you'll start to see that happen in the shelves in the next couple of months.”
Friedberg: White House will confirm Blinken's Ukraine-NATO remarks as official policy
“At the next White House press conference, you will hear the question asked by reporters, is this the White House position? And they will say, yes, it is.”
Friedberg: Robinhood is almost certain to offer IPO shares to customers
“I think it's almost certain they're going to give some of the shares available in the IPO to Robinhood customer.”
Friedberg predicts 80% of private capital will consolidate into 3-4 firms
“In probably two years, 80% of it's going to come from three firms or four firms.”
Friedberg: High Atlantic sea temperatures likely to drive record hurricane season
“That's likely going to drive the biggest hurricane season we've ever seen this coming season.”
Friedberg: First AI-generated novel will be published by major publisher in 2023
“When's the first AI novel gonna get published by a major publisher? I think it happens this year.”
Friedberg: OpenAI will receive a $1B+ investment in 2023
“They're going to get a billion dollar plus investment this year.”
Friedberg: Consumer credit will hit a wall in 2023 as defaults rise
“And so I think we're going to run into a real wall with respect to consumer credit in sometime this year. And you're going to see, As you guys know, it's such a complicated, interwoven market of assets, that the way that this can be traded, there's a lot of di…”
Friedberg: Generative AI will be Silicon Valley's next hype and bubble cycle
“My guess is the next hype cycle, the next bubble cycle in Silicon Valley will absolutely be this generative AI business.”
Friedberg: Alphabet will inevitably lay off 5% to 10% of employees
“It is inevitable. There's going to be some cutting. So I think that there will likely be some reduction five percent, 10%, 10, 10,000 employees.”
Friedberg: US economic contraction and higher unemployment are now inevitable
“There's a, there's an inevitability now that unemployment is going to rise. There is an inevitability now that the economy is going to contract.”
Friedberg: US faces consumer credit crisis within nine to twelve months
“I really think we're going to run into a consumer credit bubble here. I do not think that consumers are going to slow down their spending or change their lifestyle as quickly as investors are changing their investing style. We have seen investors in public mar…”
Friedberg: Global food crisis will hit Sri Lanka and Africa hard
“The United States is going to be fine. Western Europe will be fine. China will be fine. Sri Lanka is gonna be a mess. Northern and Eastern Africa is gonna be a mess.”
Friedberg: Ukraine could see up to an 80% decline in planted acres
“There is an expectation that we could see up to an 80% decline in planted acres in the Ukraine”
Friedberg: Reduced global crop production will lead to famine in a year
“That means there's going to be less production over the next year. That means famine hits us in a year.”
Friedberg: A Fed deposit guarantee would stop banking panic without spending money
“If a federal agency comes in, if the Fed comes in and says, you know what, we are going to backstop all of these banks, and we are going to put five hundred billion dollars behind it, and we're going to guarantee that all these deposits are going to be made wh…”
Friedberg: Post-COVID demand will force global energy prices higher
“The demands that are going to come out of the X COVID economic growth cycle cannot be met with the current energy infrastructure and you're going to see energy prices continue to climb”
Friedberg: Russian export controls will almost certainly cause widespread famine in 2022
“That are not just about sanctions, but also about export controls by Russia that are creating swings in food markets like we've never seen, and will almost certainly lead to widespread famine by the end of this year at this point.”
David Friedberg predicts Stripe will execute the largest tech IPO in history
“And so Stripe's IPO could be the biggest tech IPO ever. I think they've been talking about doing a direct listing. By the way, I don't know the guys. I don't know the investors. I don't know the company. I'm not an investor. So I don't have any information wha…”
David Friedberg accurately predicts major global conflicts and proxy wars in 2022
“I think we'll see the start of great global conflict. We often rationalize the series of events that, that catalyze conflict after the fact, rather than Recognizing that there was emotional conditioning that allowed it to arise in the first place. I think we'r…”
Friedberg: Most current NFT projects will fail and lose people money
“And I think, yeah, there's a lot of fluff and a lot of noise and a lot of bubbles going on within this NFT space right now. Most of it will die and it will look terrible when people lose lots of money and feel bad about the decisions they made during this phas…”
Friedberg predicts competitors will replicate DeepMind's AlphaFold within 24 months
“It's an inevitability that in the next couple of 24 months, someone else will replicate this.”
Friedberg predicts lack of energy resolution will trigger European civil unrest
“If there isn't a resolution in the next few weeks, there will be civil unrest. There will be a really cataclysmic concerning economic effect.”
Friedberg: US COVID deaths will rise, mostly among unvaccinated
“There will absolutely be a rise in deaths now as unvaccinated people are the gonna be the bulk of those deaths.”
Friedberg: DeepMind's proteome database will exceed 100M proteins in months
“And they said that they're going to publish this proteome database and scale it for all other species of life that we have the sort of data set around. For which they expect will achieve over a hundred million unique proteins in this database over the coming m…”
Friedberg: Twitter board will reject offer and Musk will walk away
“They're gonna try and find the best price. They're gonna reject his offer. I don't think he's gonna up the offer significantly to the point to get it to get it done. They're gonna go out and run a long strategic process. Three months from now, we're still gonn…”
Friedberg: Delta variant will not crush US hospital system or cause massive fatalities
“There are enough people, people vaccinated in the United States at this point that this Delta variant is not going to crush our hospital system. It's not going to cause massive amount of fatalities, which is the reason we went into lockdowns in the first place…”
Friedberg: 50 protein-folding startups will be funded in 12-18 months
“I think we're within, within one year, J. Cal, of a lot of startups replicating this alpha fold technique, and then using that to go do drug discovery, and you'll see 50 startups getting funded 12 to 18 months from now based on some novel protein idea.”
Friedberg: Fed almost certainly won't raise rates 50 basis points in March
“It's almost certain at this point that they're not going to do a half point rate hike.”
Friedberg predicts a million-person march over Texas SB8 within 45 days
“My prediction is going to be a million person march within 45 days.”
Friedberg: Trump should recover quickly from COVID due to antibody therapy
“These you know taking these antibodies to the coronavirus, and he got eight grams of this immunoglobulin therapy that is basically a bunch of antibodies that'll eliminate the virus, and they're not widely available, they're not publicly available, these treatm…”
Friedberg predicts COVID-19 booster shots will hit the market in August 2021
“So it's almost certain we're going to get boosters and that we're going to end up seeing them hit the market next month.”
Friedberg predicts people will fly without masks by June 2021
“It feels to me like we're probably May, June, when enough people are vaccinated that we can have, you know, a circumstance where people are going to fly without masks and be comfortable doing so.”
Friedberg: US cities will not experience NYC-style second wave
“You're not going to see that in Dallas. You're not going to see that in Houston. You're not going to see that in San Diego. You're going to have more of the slow, steady burn as some risk is taken in the environment. Some risk is taken by frat parties and peop…”
Friedberg: Market could drop 30-40% if Democrats win Georgia runoffs
“If the Democrats look like they're getting much more money into the state and they're actually gonna, you know, get people to the polls and to the voting booths and actually get into this runoff on January fifth and actually flip get both of those seats to be …”
Friedberg predicts US COVID-19 vaccine oversupply by May 2021
“We're going to be oversupplied by May. We are going to have far more shots and there will be demand.”
Friedberg predicts COVID-19 vaccine restrictions will drop within six weeks
“In six weeks, I think a lot of those restrictions are going to fall by the wayside because the supply is going to completely outstrip the nonsensical, you know, restrictions and prioritization methods we put in place”
Friedberg: Gavin Newsom recall organizers will hit signature target by March 17
“Even if the verification rate drops to 75 or 65%, you're still on track at this rate To hit the recall target by March 17th, which is the deadline. And so it appears highly likely they're going to get there.”
Friedberg: Georgia Senate runoff will set historic campaign spend record
“I think we're gonna see literally the biggest the biggest funding for a Senate runoff race in history by far. Don't you think, Sachs? Like, probably north of a hundred million dollars being spent. Maybe a hundred to two hundred million dollars being spent on a…”
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