Nov 4, 2020 · 2h 59m · allin
E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Jason Calacanis · 28m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 28m spoken David Sacks · 27m spoken Brad Gerstner · 18m spoken Michael Newman · 15m spoken David Friedberg · 13m spoken Bill Gurley · 10m spoken Phil Hellmuth · 9m spoken John Cohen · 7m spoken Joe Biden · 1m spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this election night special of the All-In Podcast, hosts Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, David Friedberg, and Chamath Palihapitiya join featured guests to deliver real-time analysis of 2020 U.S. presidential election returns, betting market shifts, voter demographics, financial market reactions, and key ballot measures.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 60.6% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.5 Guest teaching 3.6 Guest disagreement 2.3 The hosts pushing back 2.9
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 1:21:21 Brad Gerstner blasts coastal elite sanctimony
Brad Gerstner delivers a forceful, impassioned critique of coastal progressive sanctimony, using his 84-year-old mother's perspective to show how everyday Midwesterners are alienated.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 2:34:28 Sacks confronts Jason over impeachment and Russia framingDavid Sacks refuses Jason's characterization of Trump as uniquely corrupt, directly pressing Jason on whether he can even acknowledge the unfairness of the impeachment and Russia investigations.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 2:05:18 Bill Gurley explains SEIU union capture behind AB-5Bill Gurley masterfully educates the podcast hosts on the true origin of California's AB-5, explaining how SEIU wrote the bill for regulatory capture and carved out over 100 favored industries.
The host holds their own ▶ 1:05:31 Chamath breaks down uncounted Philadelphia precinct mathChamath demonstrates deep technical analysis by citing exact Philadelphia precinct counts (82 of 1706 reported) to show why Pennsylvania was far from decided.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election Night Stream Kickoff and Early Market Shift | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Jason and Friedberg open the live stream reacting to early election returns. Guest Phil Hellmuth educates the hosts on international betting market movements and odds shifts favoring Trump. | |
| Analyzing Trump's Campaign Energy and Cult of Personality | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Sacks analyzes Trump's campaign rally energy while Friedberg discusses his cult of personality. Guest Michael Newman comes on to detail early state returns and county reporting structures. | |
| Counting Dynamics, Mail-In Ballots, and Market Surges | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | Friedberg cites live dashboard data showing only 12% of Pennsylvania mail-in ballots counted. Chamath pushes back on reading too much into early state leads due to urban reporting delays. | |
| Bettor Hedging, Network Lag, and North Carolina Recounts | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | SurveyMonkey's John Cohen joins to explain how polling models adjusted for education levels post-2016. He outlines why SurveyMonkey showed narrower margins than major network polls. | |
| Voter Demographics, Electoral College, and Political Rejection | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | Chamath presses John Cohen on what voters are protesting if Trump overperforms again. Chamath challenges the simplistic media narrative that Trump voters are merely undereducated rural workers. | |
| COVID Lockdowns and Cultural Backlash Analysis | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | Sacks presents his thesis that blue state lockdowns created a backlash that superseded COVID response incompetence. Friedberg shares a tweet from the farm belt echoing frustration over lockdown overreach. | |
| Economic Repudiation in 2016 vs Cultural Repudiation in 2020 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Sacks contrasts the economic repudiation of elites in 2016 over trade with China against a cultural repudiation in 2020. Chamath agrees, emphasizing that minority voters are not a monoculture. | |
| Leadership Style, Energy, and Party Structural Realignment | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | The hosts go around the horn predicting the outcome. Jason delivers an emotional rant calling Trump a sociopath, while Sacks and Friedberg argue voters are responding to Trump's relentless energy. | |
| Chamath Personal Reflections on Election and Pennsylvania Vote Count Analysis | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | Chamath reflects personally on his immigrant experience and details his political donations. He breaks down the exact Philadelphia precinct math to show why Pennsylvania remains uncalled. | |
| Media Bias Voter Motivations and Market Reactions to Election Scenarios | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | Sacks criticizes mainstream media bias and argues Trump serves as a middle finger to media elites and tech censors. Jason challenges Sacks on media motivations and Trump's character. | |
| Guest Brad Gerstner on Market Signals and Democratic Disconnect with Working Voters | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | Investor Brad Gerstner joins to explain how bond yield movements signal market fears over stimulus and inflation. He sharply criticizes coastal elite sanctimony for alienating Midwest working voters. | |
| Economic Migration Big Tech Censorship and Live Election Results Tracking | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | Brad discusses the economic exodus from California. Sacks highlights Twitter's suppression of the New York Post Hunter Biden story as a critical censorship issue that backfired on tech platforms. | |
| Polling Disasters Public Distrust in Experts and COVID Guidance Debates | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | The hosts mock Nate Silver and polling failures. Newman and Sacks argue public distrust in polling and public health experts stems from elite blind spots and contradictory guidance. | |
| COVID-19 Policy, Lockdowns, and Political Consequences | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | Sacks and Jason debate Trump's mask messaging versus blue state governor lockdown policies. The panel reviews live state tallies across Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan. | |
| Market Response and Divided Government Outlook | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Brad Gerstner outlines why equity markets are rallying on prospects of a divided government without progressive tax hikes. Bill Gurley joins and emphasizes the lack of empathy for middle America. | |
| The Divided Government 'Soft Landing' Debate | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | Sacks presents a divided government soft landing scenario, while Chamath argues gridlock fails to solve the pain of alienated working class citizens. Brad advocates younger leaders like Pete Buttigieg. | |
| Democratic Party Strategy and Donor Frustration | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | Chamath vows to withhold donor dollars from Democratic leadership until they perform a root cause analysis. Gurley highlights the cultural bias permitted against rural Americans in elite circles. | |
| California Proposition 22 and AB-5 Regulations | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Bill Gurley explains California Proposition 22 and AB-5, detailing union regulatory capture by SEIU and carve-outs granted to well-connected industries. Jason details impact on freelance writers. | |
| California Ballot Propositions and Gig Economy Debate | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Brad Gerstner frames Prop 22 as a national Independent Contractor Plus template separating benefits from traditional W-2 jobs. Sacks and Friedberg react positively to ballot initiative results. | |
| Labor Unions, Regulatory Capture, and California Policies | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Bill Gurley explains how unions act as natural monopolies and details how California PAGA litigation shakedowns drive companies out of the state. | |
| Age in Political Leadership and Candidate Viability Debate | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Michael Newman jokes about the political gerontocracy in Washington. The panel debates whether Pete Buttigieg or Bernie Sanders could have mounted a stronger campaign against Trump. | |
| Personal Voting Values: Character vs. Ideology | 6 | 3 | 5 | 7 | Brad Gerstner explains voting for character over self-interest for his children. Sacks fiercely challenges Jason over Russia collusion and impeachment, leading to a heated argument over political ethics. | |
| Analyzing Georgia County Data and Media Discrepancies | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Chamath calculates remaining Atlanta suburb precinct numbers in DeKalb, Fulton, and Cobb counties to show Georgia's path to Biden. Sacks shares his Twitter Trump Derangement Score results. | |
| Electoral Pathways, Odds Market Shifts, and Awaiting Biden | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Brad Gerstner shares Detroit vote margin projections. The panel watches Joe Biden's live late-night address before giving final election outcome predictions and closing the stream. |
Statements from this episode (100)
Friedberg: Forex markets indicate Donald Trump has a real shot at winning
“We're seeing Forex markets show a sharp indication that Trump has a real shot at winning here.”
Hellmuth: £368 million wagered on UK betting markets for 2020 election
“Three hundred and sixty-eight million pounds. Trump is now a three to 10 favorite.”
Hellmuth: Betting markets favored Joe Biden for three straight months before election
“The betting odds, the markets were, have been in Biden's favor for three straight months.”
Friedberg: Trump's cult of personality draws voters seeking non-traditional leadership
“I think it is that cult of personality that cultural personality draws so many people in that are just you know, feeling like they need change and they need leadership and they don't need something from the old school”
Hellmuth: Pollsters were miles off on the 2020 election
“But wow, the polls are, pollsters were miles off on this, and this is just amazing.”
Calacanis: Hispanic voters are not a political monoculture
“I've always had a weird understanding of this terminal Latin X, which seems to come from the woke left, but Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, these are different countries. They're not all the same as Waylands. Venezuelans. This is not a monoculture just becaus…”
Chamath played a $500k poker pot against Tom Dwan
“The biggest part of the night was around 400 K, maybe 500 K played between me and Durr.”
Michael Newman: Donald Trump will safely win Florida in 2020 election
“NBC has still not called Florida for Trump, but there's really no path for Biden to win that state. So you can put that safely in the Trump column.”
Michael Newman: Donald Trump and Thom Tillis will win North Carolina
“He has just taken the lead in North Carolina after trailing all night. We've got about 88% of the vote in now, and I suspect he's home free, as is the Republican incumbent senator there.”
Friedberg: Pennsylvania has counted 12% of 2.5M mail-in ballots
“They've counted only 12% of the mail-in ballots. Which is, and the total mail-in ballots is 2.5 million.”
Hellmuth: Donald Trump is a 3-to-1 favorite in betting markets
“Right now, if you want to bet, Trump is a three to one favorite and there's been billions of dollars bet in England, Australia, all over the world. He's a three to one favorite.”
Chamath: Financial and betting markets flipped 180 degrees on election night
“Literally what we've seen in the last 35 minutes is both the equity markets, the currency markets, And the betting markets flip 180 degrees from where they have been, not just all day, but frankly, where they have been probably for the last few months.”
Michael Newman: Donald Trump must win five specific states for victory
“He had to have those five, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas.”
Michael Newman: Donald Trump will win Ohio in the 2020 election
“Unless all of Cleveland is outstanding, I would say that's a Trump state.”
John Cohen: SurveyMonkey eliminated 1.5 points of polling error by separating post-grads
“We broke apart post grads and grads into two distinct categories, and that released kind of about a point and a half of unforced error
in our polling for 2016.”
John Cohen: Trump will lose the popular vote in 2020
“He is going to lose the popular vote. There's still far more Americans and American voters who voted today and, you know, kind of over the past several weeks who would prefer Joe Biden to be president.”
John Cohen: Trump maintains a durable 44% to 46% approval floor
“We've had a 44 to 46% approving of his job performance for many years now. Like, he has a completely durable, solid floor.”
John Cohen: Trump performs better among Black and Hispanic men than women
“Trump does much better among Black men and Hispanic men than he does among Black women and Latinas”
Sacks: COVID lockdown backlash will supersede anger over Trump's pandemic response
“If the woke left insists on permanent lockdowns, Trump will have an issue that supersedes the incompetence of COVID response.”
Chamath: Market futures and oil are up on election night while gold drops
“Boys, all markets are now up. Everything is green. Dow futures, S&P, 500 futures, NASDAQ futures. Oil is up. Gold is down.”
Cohen: Trump supporters overwhelmingly view COVID-19 as an economic crisis
“More people on average say it's a health issue than an economic one. Trump with Trump supporters overwhelmingly say the crisis is one that's financial, not health related.”
Michael Newman: Clinton won Miami-Dade early vote by 29 points in 2016
“Hillary won it by 29 in 2016, and she lost the state.”
Sacks: Chinese economy grew from $2 daily wage to size of US economy
“In the 19, when the great Chinese economic reformer, Deng Xiaoping, decided to open up the Chinese economy, the average Chinese was making two dollars a day, and today their economy is roughly the size of the US.”
Sacks: 2020 election represents a cultural repudiation of elites
“I think that 2020, if 2016 was an economic repudiation of the elites, 2020 is a cultural repudiation of the elites. That is the big issue in 2020.”
Newman: Trump win would force Democrats toward Sanders-style economic populism
“If Trump's victory in 2016 laid waste to the Republican establishment, if he wins again tonight, it will lay waste to the Democratic establishment. And the theory of the case that they've had for 20 years, the sort of, ah, Share a emerging democratic majority …”
Phil Hellmuth: Donald Trump outworked Joe Biden in the 2020 election
“There's no doubt that he outworked Biden. I mean, this guy's going to seven rallies a day showing up with a ton of energy, and he has, you know, like him or not, he has a lot of charisma.”
Chamath predicts the Republican Party will split in two
“And the reality is the Republicans may actually quasi cleave into independent of whether Trump wins or not anyways.”
Michael Newman predicts Donald Trump will win the 2020 election
“I've increasingly think Trump is going to win.”
Friedberg: Donald Trump is like Steve Jobs in how he warps reality
“He is like Steve Jobs. He warps reality, and he tells everyone, I am going to win.”
Chamath predicts Joe Biden will win the 2020 presidential election
“I still think the path is I think it's Biden”
Newman: Biden will win 2020 popular vote by four or five points
“I think we can safely say that Biden is going to win the popular vote, and it might be by four points, five points, which means that there is a discrepancy between the popular vote and electoral college.”
Calacanis: Re-electing Donald Trump is an existential threat to global democracy
“It's an existential threat to the entire planet and humanity and democracy across the world if this country puts that maniac into office again for four goddamn fucking more years.”
Newman predicts Trump will fire Fauci, Wray, and possibly Barr if re-elected
“Oh, I think you can count on it. Fauci and Christopher Wray, the FBI director, and increasingly maybe Bill Barr too.”
Chamath Palihapitiya donated $750k to Senate races and $250k to Biden
“I gave a million bucks this year in the elections, but I gave seven 50 to the Senate, and I gave two 50 to Biden.”
Chamath: Any election night result will be incomplete without Pennsylvania
“Any result that's called tonight, I think is going to be incomplete because they're not gonna call Pennsylvania because they're not gonna call Philly.”
Michael Newman: Pennsylvania and Michigan cannot tabulate votes until polls close
“Pennsylvania, unfortunately, and Michigan as well, are states that aren't allowed to start tabulating until all the polls are closed.”
Chamath: New Jersey voters legalized recreational marijuana in 2020
“For all of our listeners and watchers in New Jersey, they legalize recreational pots”
Newman: 2020 election results in key swing states could take until weekend
“Unfortunately, all four of those states are going to probably take at least a day. Arizona, three days, I think, to count. Maybe not this year because So much of the vote was early. Maybe it'll move faster, but they are notoriously slow counters. So settle in.…”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts Americans will stay peaceful while election results are counted
“I don't think you're going to see a lot of action one way or the other. I think that people, I think people in America are incredibly good people. I think that folks are just going to sit tight and hope that the folks whose job it is to do their job.”
Jason Calacanis fears the week after the 2020 election could be incredibly violent
“And I fear for what's going to happen in the next week, because if people were shooting each other leading up to this, I think the next week could be incredibly violent.”
Chamath: Markets will turn risk-off if no clear election winner emerges tonight
“If that's the case tomorrow morning, if we go to bed in another hour and a half, or if we finish this thing in another hour, and there is no winner, a clear winner, I think markets will be back to sort of modestly risk off tomorrow.”
Sacks: Markets will rally if Trump wins or Republicans keep Senate control
“Look, I think the market does not want those Trump tax cuts repealed. Stocks just ripped after Trump passed those corporate tax cuts. So if either Trump wins or the Republicans hold on to the Senate, then that would be a reason for the market to rip.”
Gerstner: Federal Reserve interest rates drive 80-90% of market performance
“If you ask me, you know, we get all excited about the election, we get all excited about stimulus and tax policy, but the biggest elephant in the room is the Fed and rates. That's the 80 to 90% factor in the market this year”
Gerstner: 2020 election results reflect protest against coastal sanctimony
“The sanctimony that exists in urban areas. You know, and coastal elites is just, it's, you know, this is what we're seeing people vote against, right? The idea that you're going to close down the state of Michigan, not allow people to take their boats out on l…”
Gerstner: Markets are prepared to navigate another four years of Trump
“I think the market's fully prepared to manage its way through another four years of Trump, so I think that's, you know, the reason we're seeing the futures react the way they are, is it's a whole lot of nothing.”
Gerstner: US will see largest economic migration in country's history
“I think we're going to have the single largest migration of economic the single largest economic migration in the history of this country.”
Sacks: Twitter and Jack Dorsey will be political scapegoats post-election
“I think this time around it's going to be Twitter because they have been so arrogant and their assertion of their right to censor viewpoints they don't lock. And if the Republicans hold on to the Senate and or the presidency, I think you're going to see Jack D…”
David Sacks: The WHO initially advised against wearing masks during COVID-19
“Remember that at the time that I was saying that we should wear masks, the WHO was saying we shouldn't.”
Sacks: Trump embracing masks would have won him the election decisively
“Had he just gone all in on a mass policy, I think this would not even be a close election.”
Sacks: Joe Biden and Blue State Governors Support COVID Lockdowns
“Joe Biden and all these blue state governors are still on the record as being in favor of lockdowns.”
Newman: Iowa will go to Donald Trump as election day votes trickle in
“As the election day vote starts to trickle in, that's going to Trump.”
Gerstner: Democrats will not win control of the US Senate
“They're not going to get the Senate either.”
Michael Newman: Minnesota was never competitive in the 2020 election
“I never thought Minnesota was in play the Republicans put a brave face on there and they are making some gains in the rural areas, but Minnesota was never in play.”
Chamath: Milwaukee vote tally won't report until the following morning
“Milwaukee doesn't come in until tomorrow morning.”
Chamath: Detroit election results won't report until the next day
“Detroit doesn't come in until tomorrow.”
Gerstner predicts no blue wave and a divided Senate following 2020 election
“And I think what the markets are starting to price in is that this is not going to be a blue wave. There's no mandate here for massive tax reform. There's going to be a divided Senate. It's going to be hard to pass legislation. That's going to be overly onerou…”
Gurley: Coastal elites lack empathy for rural and center states
“I do think there's a true lack of empathy for the center states and the rural areas from the coastal elites”
Gurley: The US cannot move past COVID under a Trump presidency
“I think that we can't get past COVID With Trump, because the TDSers are so convinced that it has to be problematic”
Sacks: Divided government under Biden and a GOP Senate would lower political temperature
“This scenario, which we've called the soft landing where let's say you had a Biden victory by two electoral votes, the Republicans hold on to the Senate. I think the radical left gets a big I'd say rebuke or a shock. And we have basically divided government in…”
Chamath: Donald Trump has done nothing in office and is a complete void
“I'll ignore his bullshit because honestly, he's done nothing. He will do nothing. He is a complete fucking void.”
Chamath: US educational institutions are failing and setting up half of students for failure
“Our educational facilities are completely failing from grade school all the way through to high school community college, college, grad school. It's all just a contrived piece of shit, right? We are completely putting out one in two people for failure, okay?”
Gerstner: US wealth disparity will continue to increase
“The exact, the exacerbation of the wealth disparity is going to increase, not decrease.”
Gerstner: Pragmatic, moderate Democrat like Buttigieg will emerge as party nominee
“I think that there is a, there's been a doctrine in the Democratic Party that to win the primary, you got to veer to the left. Right. You got to contend with Bernie. You got to contend with Elizabeth Warren, but ultimately that's a losing strategy in the elect…”
Chamath demands a Democratic Party root cause analysis before donating again
“So if these motherfuckers want a single goddamn dollar from me, what I want first is a root cause analysis to understand what is actually going on.”
Gurley: Social bias against rural Americans is uniquely accepted in urban cities
“There is a, there's unquestionably a type of social bias against rural Americans in, in urban cities. There's just no doubt. It's the only joke you're allowed to tell without getting Rebuked.”
Gurley: Regulation protects incumbents and impedes innovation
“Regulation is the friend of the incumbent and it's the opposite of innovation. It locks in things and it's very resistant to change.”
Gurley: Over 100 industries were exempted from California's AB-5
“So by the time AB five was set to be put in action, there were over a hundred industries that have been carved out because it was a stupid law written just to target and a single industry.”
Calacanis: Vox stopped hiring and laid off California freelancers over AB-5
“Well, in one of the businesses I run, Inside.com, we had to tell all of the freelancers we were hiring who are writers that they would lose their gig work with us because they could only write five stories a year or 10 stories a year, and Vox, one of the big p…”
Gerstner: Prop 22 will become the regulatory model for New York and other states
“You're going to see if Prop. 22 passes, which I think it will tonight, it's going to be the architecture that New York and many other states follow. They're certainly not going to follow the disastrous AB five Example.”
Chamath: Political polarization will drive tax migration to Republican states
“It seems like we're setting up for Democrats versus companies and people moving to Republican states to have low taxes and to be left alone.”
Gurley: Labor unions hold more regulatory capture power than corporations
“The difference that a union has versus a company is it's a natural monopoly, and so it actually has more power to write regulation than a company does”
Gurley: PAGA drives more companies out of California than AB5
“The rule, the law that's causing more companies to leave from my perspective than AB five is something called PAGA.”
Gurley: Workers receive only about 10% on average from PAGA claim settlements
“The supposed victims are getting about 10% on average on PAGA claims.”
Gurley: Anti-business, anti-tech policies will cause economies to grind to a halt
“If any state or country wants to move forward in, in our new economy, they can't just be completely anti-business, anti-tech. I have a strong point of view on that, but like, it won't work. You're gonna grind to a halt.”
Gerstner: US Senate almost certain to stay Republican 51-49
“Is anybody prepared to, I, I'm getting a read from my analysts who are live blogging to me that the Senate is almost certain to go Republican at this point, with Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina going Republican. And Michigan and Montana both in real danger for…”
Gerstner: Stock market will likely trade up tomorrow regardless of winner
“I think the more surprising thing at this point is it's almost, you know, and I'm certainly going to live to regret this, but it appears at this point that the market's going to be up tomorrow, almost either way.”
Sacks predicts 2020 election will come down to PA, MI, and courts
“This is going to come down to Pennsylvania, Michigan, and it's going to take days to do those counts and we're probably gonna end up in the courts.”
Gerstner: Four years under any president cannot change America's overall trajectory
“Four years under any president is not enough to really change the arc of the country”
Gerstner: Institutional checks would have slowed Bernie Sanders' economic agenda
“I would have bet that the system that we have would have been slow enough in moving that, that Bernie would not have been”
Calacanis: Putin interfered in the US election on behalf of Trump
“We all know Putin interfered with the election and we all know he interfered on behalf of one candidate.”
Sacks: Mueller's two-year probe found no collusion with Russia
“We had Bob Mueller with a team of, like, 18 Like Pitbull, Democratic prosecutors, and 50 special FBI agents, let me finish, who investigated for two years, and they couldn't find any collusion.”
Michael Newman predicts five battleground states will face Florida-like election disputes
“Yeah, we're gonna have five Floridas.”
David Sacks claims Donald Trump will perform better on Election Day ballots in Arizona
“Yeah, so, so Arizona, they counted all the absentee ballots for the mail-in ballots first, but the in-person voting hasn't been counted yet. So you can't call that state if they haven't counted all the in-person, because Trump's going to do better with, you kn…”
Chamath: Uncounted Georgia county votes could flip state to Biden
“DeKalb County, Fulton County, and Cobb County in Georgia are pro-Democrat. They're huge and they're at 31%, 58%, and 70%, and if you play these out, there's somewhere between 405 100,000 Potential incremental votes for Biden, which would eke out Georgia for Bi…”
Newman claims Biden lost Nebraska's 2nd congressional district in 2020
“Biden did not get that one district in Omaha, Nebraska, that he had targeted that Obama won his first time, that would give you one electoral vote in, in Nebraska”
Chamath Palihapitiya reports Georgia Senate race between Warnock and Loeffler is in a runoff
“Ralph Warnock and Kelly Loeffler in a runoff for the Senate seat in Georgia.”
Gerstner: Implied volatility on Uber stock was 14% at market close
“The implied volatility on Uber stock at the close today was 14%.”
Sacks: Every city-level ballot initiative in San Francisco passed
“By the way, every ballot initiative in San Francisco, the city level ballot initiative has passed.”
Sacks: San Francisco ballot measures were a disaster except Prop H
“One of them, the prop H was good. All the rest were a disaster.”
Sacks: Ballot initiatives should mainly be used to overrule state legislatures
“I feel like that's where like these ballot initiatives make sense is when you want to overrule the legislature, but you know, it's kind of crazy for to be passing these laws directly when, you know, we don't know that much about them.”
Chamath: Trump prematurely declaring victory is the market disaster scenario
“There's one thing and so far it hasn't happened and if we avoid it, we're going to fade a really big out here. Which is Trump declares victory right now. I think that is the disaster scenario because I think Biden's going to get up there.”
Chamath: Biden will deliver a cautious, wait-and-see election night speech
“He's not going to say much of anything. He'll be very kind of down the middle, you know, kind of let's take a wait and see approach.”
Sacks: Trump must sweep Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to win
“Trump now has to win Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in order to win the presidency. If Biden wins any one of those three states, he wins. He has to be a three for three in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.”
Gerstner: Biden wins Michigan if he matches 2016 margins in Detroit and Ann Arbor
“If Biden wins Ann Arbor and Detroit by the same percentage as 2016, that's 420,000 Biden incremental votes versus the 300,000 current Trump lead. Just apply the math and he wins Michigan.”
Newman predicts 2020 presidential election winner will be known within a week
“I think we'll know within a week who won.”