Mar 19, 2022 · 1h 14m · allin
E72: Impact of sanctions, deglobalization, food shortage risks, macroeconomic outlook and more
David Sacks · 23m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 17m spoken David Friedberg · 13m spoken Jason Calacanis · 12m spoken
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In Episode 72 of the All-In Podcast, hosts Jason Calacanis, David Sachs, Chamath Palihapitiya, and David Friedberg analyze the far-reaching consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, including global food shortages, macroeconomic volatility, and shifting foreign policy strategies. Through deep dives into agricultural supply chains, economic sanctions, and US grand strategy, the co-hosts advocate for pragmatic diplomacy, energy independence, and domestic economic resilience.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.8 Guest teaching 4.8 Guest disagreement 2.7 The hosts pushing back 3.6
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 1:08:05 Sacks attacks permanent State Department establishment
Sacks passionately lambasts permanent State Department lifers like Victoria Nuland, accusing them of driving escalation regardless of presidential oversight.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 37:45 Chamath rejects China absorbing Russian economy premiseChamath directly challenges Sacks' assertion that Russia will divert its entire commodity base to China, citing China's 60% export dependence on OECD nations.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 16:39 Friedberg details global calorie reserves and fertilizer shockFriedberg educates the panel on fundamental ag mechanics, highlighting that the world runs on a 90-day calorie supply and explaining how NPK price surges threaten global yields.
The host holds their own ▶ 53:14 Chamath demonstrates market micro-structure masteryChamath shows deep market domain expertise by analyzing daily retail net buying data and identifying retail capitulation as a precise contrarian buy signal.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-In Podcast Opening Title Sequence | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Introductory banter and light ribbing among co-hosts about Twitter usage, chief of staff hiring, and VC meeting habits. | |
| Ukraine War Update, Peace Negotiations, and Western Triumphalism | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 | Sacks analyzes Western triumphalism and peace deal terms, while Chamath pushes back with a psychological perspective that heightened rhetoric signals proximity to a deal. | |
| Global Food Shortages, Fertilizer Crises, and Famine Risks | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg educates the group on global calorie metrics, 90-day food reserve thresholds, and the severe impact of NPK fertilizer supply shocks. | |
| GMO Regulations, Synthetic Food, and Supply Chain Redundancy | 7 | 6 | 3 | 4 | Chamath critiques anti-GMO sentiment, prompting Friedberg to outline regulatory timelines and the future promise of synthetic starch production. | |
| Impact of Economic Sanctions and Geopolitical Realignment | 7 | 5 | 4 | 6 | Sacks argues Russia will become a Chinese client state, but Chamath challenges this premise by pointing out China's export reliance on OECD markets. | |
| Macroeconomic Outlook, Federal Reserve Rates, and Market Dynamics | 8 | 5 | 2 | 4 | Chamath explains macro uncertainty removal and retail flow capitulation as market buy indicators, while Sacks notes downside risks if peace talks stall. | |
| Regime Change Debates and Historical US Track Record | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Sacks and Chamath list past failures of US-engineered regime change across Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. | |
| Defining US Strategy: Selective Engagement vs. Isolationism | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Sacks articulates a doctrine of selective engagement focused on vital interests rather than moralizing interventionism. | |
| Critique of the Washington Foreign Policy Establishment | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | Sacks strongly critiques permanent State Department bureaucrats, while Chamath defends Blinken and Biden for avoiding direct military conflict. | |
| Global Order Restructuring and Multi-Party Game Theory | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg applies Ray Dalio's global order framework and three-player game theory among the US, Russia, and China. |
Statements from this episode (16)
Chamath Palihapitiya's non-SaaS portfolio company accidentally booked $40 million in ACV
“One of our businesses, which is not in SAS has started to sell SAS software. And we've already booked. Forty million dollars of fucking ACV by complete accident from zero.”
Palihapitiya predicts a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire within two to three weeks
“And so I suspect, and you know, I could be completely wrong, is that we're much closer to a ceasefire than anybody thinks. And I suspect that you could see something in the next two to three weeks.”
Palihapitiya: Bennett and Macron are leading Russia-Ukraine peace talks, not the US
“The people that are negotiating this peace treaty right now are Naftali Bennett and Emmanuel Macron. So we're not at the table.”
Friedberg: Russian export controls will almost certainly cause widespread famine in 2022
“That are not just about sanctions, but also about export controls by Russia that are creating swings in food markets like we've never seen, and will almost certainly lead to widespread famine by the end of this year at this point.”
Friedberg: Planet Earth operates on a 90-day food supply buffer
“And I just to take a step back, the whole planet Earth operates on a 90 day food supply.”
Friedberg: US GMO trait approvals take seven to 13 years
“Just to get a single GMO trait approved in the United States today and get it to market can take seven to 13 years.”
Friedberg: Food synthesis technologies will accelerate over the next two decades
“Humans today, I think, have the ability to synthesize and print food. And over the next couple of decades, particularly catalyzed by what's going on in Russia, Ukraine today, we're going to see these technologies accelerate.”
Friedberg: Companies will vertically integrate supply chains over next two decades
“And now I think the big trend for the next decade or two, everyone's going to have like a institutional memory of this. And you're going to see companies that are going to start to vertically integrate supply chains. They're going to vertically integrate their…”
David Sacks predicts Russia will become a Chinese client state
“I think it's very likely that the way this is going to play out geopolitically is that Russia will become a Chinese client.”
Palihapitiya: A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is completely off the table
“It's completely off the table. Completely off the table.”
Chamath predicts a stock market melt up over the next month
“I think that we're in the midst of what I would call a melt up. So, you know, probably the next month, month and a half. There really isn't much quote unquote, bad news that hasn't been priced in.”
Sacks predicts private startup valuations will fall to pre-COVID levels
“I think that there's going to be a trickle down effect of what's happened in the market to privates. And the valuations are going to go back to their pre-COVID levels.”
Sacks: US should retain Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia in global coalition
“I would not be throwing countries like Turkey and Egypt and Saudi Arabia out of our coalition in Cold War II because we don't like the nature of their governments.”
Sacks: No Russia-Ukraine peace deal unless Biden resists State Department
“And unless Biden, hold on, if unless Biden stands up to his own State Department, we will not get a ceasefire, and we will not get a peace deal, and that will be disastrous for his presidency.”
David Sacks says China benefits from direct US-Russia conflict
“If you were to look at this from the Chinese standpoint, they must be loving what's going on. Loving it. Old saying, I think Napoleon said it, never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake. Why is China So quiet right now. Well, yeah, because they love…”
Chamath: Western economic sanction capabilities against China are necessary for peace
“We have to implement energy independence writ large, and we have to make sure that it is very clear we have influence amongst all these OECD countries, because if China takes one foot over the line, We have to have the ability to do to them what we've done to …”