Prediction certainty 3/5 debate potential 2/5

Friedberg: Companies will vertically integrate supply chains over next two decades

David Friedberg · E72: Impact of sanctions, deglobalization, food shortage risks, macroeconomic outlook and more · Mar 19, 2022 · at 32:34

David Friedberg analyzes corporate reaction to pandemic and war-induced supply chain disruptions, predicting a long-term shift toward supply chain redundancy.

0:00 / 0:26exact quote · 26.7s
▶ Watch the full episode on YouTube → 720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“And now I think the big trend for the next decade or two, everyone's going to have like a institutional memory of this. And you're going to see companies that are going to start to vertically integrate supply chains. They're going to vertically integrate their manufacturing. We're going to see a lot of businesses make what traditionally would have been really quote unquote bad capex decisions and bad investment decisions. And they're gonna say, you know what, we need to have redundancy because we cannot face the cataclysmic kind of circumstance that we faced in the past.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from David Friedberg

Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Friedberg predicts AOC will be elected US President
“So I predict AOC will be president.”
David Friedberg Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 1:28:45 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg: Reduced global crop production will lead to famine in a year
“That means there's going to be less production over the next year. That means famine hits us in a year.”
David Friedberg Apr 1, 2022 ▶ 1:24:06 E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg: Russian export controls will almost certainly cause widespread famine in 2022
“That are not just about sanctions, but also about export controls by Russia that are creating swings in food markets like we've never seen, and will almost certainly lead to widespread famine by the end of this year at this point.”
David Friedberg Mar 19, 2022 ▶ 16:46 E72: Impact of sanctions, deglobalization, food shortage risks, macroeconomic outlook and more
Opinion
Friedberg: Putin's behavior is rational and he seeks to avoid conflict
“His behavior is very rational in response to what's gone on for 30 years. And his requests are that he is feeling threatened and he is trying to avoid military conflict as much as he can.”
David Friedberg Jan 29, 2022 ▶ 28:56 E65: VC markup dynamics, Russia/US tensions over Ukraine, Altos Labs raises $3B, Stripe mafia & more
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts humanity will ultimately view animal agriculture as worse than slavery
“I think one day the human race will look back and identify animal agriculture as worse than human slavery. I do think that that will be a profound realization over the next century for our species”
David Friedberg Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 1:10:33 E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars
Insight
Friedberg argues monopolies are lazy and easier to defeat than cronyism
“I think monopolies are good because monopolies are just like lazy, and it's easier to innovate and compete against a monopoly, to be honest, than it is to compete against cronyism.”
David Friedberg Sep 4, 2021 ▶ 1:01:27 E45: Theranos & VC fraud risks, China bans video games, Texas SB8, Apple app store, CA fires, Rogan
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 460 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.