US GDP

also referred to as: u.s. gdp

17 statements across 14 episodes · 10 bullish · 3 bearish · 8 people on the record · first statement Apr 11, 2020 by David Sacks · across every show →

Everything said about US GDP, oldest first

Apr 11, 2020 bearish
Prediction Held up
Sacks: US GDP will contract 25% to 33% next quarter
“We think that GDP is going to contract in, in the next quarter by a quarter to a third.”
David Sacks Apr 11, 2020 ▶ 46:08 E2: Rebooting economy, understanding corporate debt, avoiding a depression & more with David Sacks
Sep 20, 2023
Assertion Partly supported
Graham Allison: China's GDP grew from 10% to 75% of US GDP
“China was, at the beginning of the century, 10% of the U.S. GDP. Today it's three quarters of the U.S. GDP.”
Graham Allison Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 9:07 All-In Summit: In conversation with Graham Allison
Jan 26, 2024 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: US Q4 GDP grew 3.3% year-over-year, beating expectations
“The GDP numbers that just came out smashed at 3.3% year over year in the fourth quarter. Expectations were just two percent.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 26, 2024 ▶ 2:08 E163: Market rips, Media RIFs, Texas defies Biden, Fintech reckoning, ARkStorm 2.0 & more
Jun 14, 2024 bearish
Prediction Held up
Palihapitiya: US unemployment will rise and GDP will shrink
“So I think unemployment is going back up. I think GDP is going to shrink.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 1:13:57 Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Nov 1, 2024 bearish
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Government spending drove 85% of Q3 2024 U.S. GDP growth
“85% of this quarter's GDP was induced by the government. If you sub it out, so take 2.8% and multiply it by .15, that is the true growth ex the United States government that exists in the United States economy today.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 1, 2024 ▶ 12:16 Inflated GDP?, Google earnings, How the media lost trust, Rogan/Trump search controversy, Election!
Mar 19, 2025
Assertion Supported
Bessent: Cutting $300 billion in government spending reduces GDP by 1%
“Every three hundred billion we cut is about a percent of GDP”
Scott Bessent Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 25:38 The Shocking Truth About DC Spending & Corruption - Scott Bessent
Mar 19, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bessent: 25% of US GDP flows within 10 miles of Washington, DC
“Within a 10 mile radius of here, 25% of the GDP of the U.S. Pulsates through here.”
Scott Bessent Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 43:33 The Shocking Truth About DC Spending & Corruption - Scott Bessent
May 31, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Palihapitiya: US Q2 GDP growth will be between 3% and 4%
“What you're probably going to see in Q two is a really hot GDP print. If I'm a betting man, which I am, I think the GDP print's going to come in above three, not quite four, but above three.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 31, 2025 ▶ 1:02:15 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
Jun 13, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Chamath: US GDP growth will land in low-to-mid 3% range
“And I think, you know, if Atlanta Fed is right, I don't think they are, but I think it's going to be in the low to mid threes. It's going to be meaningfully greater than what people are expecting.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 59:49 Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?
Aug 1, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Powell: US GDP grew at 1.2% in H1 2025, down from 2.5% last year
“GDP rose at a 1.2% pace in the first half of this year, down from 2.5% last year.”
Jerome Powell Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 1:04:05 Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy
Oct 10, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI accounts for 40% of 2025 US GDP growth and 80% of stock gains
“40% of US GDP growth this year is AI. And AI companies have accounted for 80% of the gain in US stocks this year.”
David Sacks Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 1:13:53 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Oct 10, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Unregulated AI will drive 4% to 5% US GDP growth for years
“If we just allow it to happen, if we allow the innovators to do what they do best, I think this is going to drive four or five percent GDP growth for the next few years.”
David Sacks Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 1:14:34 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Nov 7, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Brad Gerstner predicts three to four rate cuts and GDP reacceleration
“I actually think you are going to get three to four rate cuts. I actually think you are going to see a reacceleration of GDP.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 53:25 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
Dec 19, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI capex boom provides 2% tailwind to US GDP growth
“We have a two percent tailwind to GDP growth right now that's coming from this AI boom, this capex boom that's happening, and so this is, I think, a very good thing for the US economy.”
David Sacks Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 17:03 Bernie Sanders Says Stop All AI, China's Breakthrough, Inflation Down, Golden Age in 2026?
Dec 22, 2025 positive
Prediction Partly held up
Bessent projects U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio will drop to mid-5% range
“We're gonna end the year with a nominal growth close to six percent. So we will be bringing down the Deficit to GDP. I believe it peaked 6.8% for the calendar year, previous year, and we're going to be in the mid fives”
Scott Bessent Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 2:35 Scott Bessent: Fixing the Fed, Tariffs for National Security, Solving Affordability in 2026
Jan 9, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2027
Lutnick predicts 6% US GDP growth if Fed cuts interest rates
“And then if they cut rates, and that's the thing, I need a new Fed chair who cuts rates, and if they cut rates... You'll see sixes.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 1:07:51 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
Jan 9, 2026 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lutnick predicts US GDP growth will reach 5% in early 2026
“They could be this quarter, as in the first quarter, so then I'd say, well, you have to come back and see me when it's through five, but then you'll come back in a couple of months, and then you'd say, Howard, I just spoke to you for an hour. I don't, you know…”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 1:07:35 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
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