United States government

18 statements across 15 episodes · 2 bullish · 13 bearish · 9 people on the record · first statement Apr 11, 2020 by Chamath Palihapitiya · said 2 times in 2 episodes since 2022 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Pete Buttigieg (1), David Sacks (1)

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Everything said about United States government, oldest first

Apr 11, 2020 negative
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Only 3% of US stimulus money went directly to individuals
“We've now poured between the United States government and the Fed Almost 10 trillion dollars. We smeared it into the economy, and only three cents of every dollar has gone into people's pockets, and I think we're hoping that the other 97 cents somehow trickles…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 11, 2020 ▶ 43:20 E2: Rebooting economy, understanding corporate debt, avoiding a depression & more with David Sacks
May 22, 2021 positive
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Closing offshore IP tax loophole will raise nearly $1T in US revenue
“One of the biggest features of the bill that has the most popularity is that they're closing this loophole around IP that sits outside the United States. And that more than the corporate taxes will raise almost a trillion dollars of revenue.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 22, 2021 ▶ 40:43 E33: Apple’s hypocrisy, America fails math, crypto’s regulatory correction, Clubhouse, UFOs & more
Mar 26, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sachs: US should broker a ceasefire in Ukraine, not bleed Russia
“What the US should be doing is leading, they should be pushing for Lead, not bleed. Lead the way to a ceasefire, not to inflict maximum damage on the Russian regime.”
David Sacks Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 59:00 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
Mar 26, 2022 negative
Opinion
Chamath: US strategy is baiting Russia into egregious actions
“I think we're moving into the second phase of this war, which is effectively trying to bait Russia into doing something really egregiously bad.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 1:04:31 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
Dec 10, 2022
Prediction Held up
Chamath: US government will attempt to rewrite Section 230
“The United States government is going to make an attempt to rewrite section two 30.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 10, 2022 ▶ 23:53 E107: The Twitter Files Parts 1-2: shadow banning, story suppression, interference & more
Sep 24, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sinema: US political gridlock will get worse
“I do think it's going to get worse. Gridlock is going to get tougher”
Kyrsten Sinema Sep 24, 2024 ▶ 24:28 Senator Kyrsten Sinema | All-In Summit 2024
Nov 1, 2024 bearish
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Government spending drove 85% of Q3 2024 U.S. GDP growth
“85% of this quarter's GDP was induced by the government. If you sub it out, so take 2.8% and multiply it by .15, that is the true growth ex the United States government that exists in the United States economy today.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 1, 2024 ▶ 12:16 Inflated GDP?, Google earnings, How the media lost trust, Rogan/Trump search controversy, Election!
Jan 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker predicts government service providers will be 2025's biggest business losers
“Government service providers. You do not want to have the United States government at any level as over 35% of your revenue.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 39:27 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025
Opinion
Baker estimates a 25% chance the US government holds alien proof
“I would say 25. I would take the over on the 20.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:50:44 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 19, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Up to 50% of employed Americans work for government or contractors
“And over time it gets bigger and bigger and bigger and you have cascading effects that I believe we're now realizing in this country with what I estimate is somewhere between 40 to 50% of people that are employed in this country employed by government or gover…”
David Friedberg Jan 19, 2025 ▶ 19:58 Ted Cruz: Trump's First Week, Texas vs. California, Immigration, DOGE, Greenland
Mar 8, 2025 negative
What-if
Sacks: Retained US-sold Bitcoin would be worth over $17 billion
“If we had held all of that, it would be worth just that the portion we sold would be worth over seventeen billion.”
David Sacks Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 1:43:00 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Jul 19, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: U.S. debt interest will surpass Medicare and defense spending within years
“If the deficit kind of continues at current levels and we were to refinance the debt at the prices that you know, David was talking about. You know, it's only a few years before spending on interest is significantly larger than spending on Medicare and Medicai…”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 13:06 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Sep 17, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Trump says US just ordered new B-2 stealth bomber models
“We just ordered a lot of The brand new model of that. Just ordered quite a few of them.”
Donald J. Trump Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 19:08 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Jan 22, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Rogers: US sanctioned former EU official over Elon Musk enforcement threat
“We recently issued some sanctions, which we'll get into, and one of the individuals we sanctioned, ah, was a former EU official who threatened Elon Musk with enforcement action because X within the United States had said that it was going to host on a live, ah…”
Sarah B. Rogers Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 7:18 Europe's Free Speech Failure and the "Censorship Industrial Complex" with Sarah B. Rogers
Mar 3, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Ray Dalio: US spends $7T against $5T revenue, running 40% deficit
“Basically, it's projected to spend about seven trillion dollars, take in about five trillion dollars, so it's running a 40% Deficit, 40% of its spending. It's been running deficits for a long time, so it has a debt that is 600%, six times the amount of money t…”
Ray Dalio Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 3:46 Ray Dalio: "AI Is Eating Everything - and It Might Eat Itself"
Mar 3, 2026 bearish
Assertion Supported
Ray Dalio: Half of the $2T US deficit goes to interest payments
“We now have that two trillion dollar deficit. Half of that is interest payments, plus we have to roll over nine trillion dollars of debt That has been accumulated and is maturing.”
Ray Dalio Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 4:41 Ray Dalio: "AI Is Eating Everything - and It Might Eat Itself"
Jul 24, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Intervening against open-source AI will tank the US stock market
“Now, there's another important thing here, which is if the United States government intervenes, it will tank the stock market.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 11:43 The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
Aug 7, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: U.S. Will Only Restrict China AI Data If Lead Vanishes
“The reason I don't think it will cause us to change our stance with respect to China is because we're winning. But if the president asks his advisors, you know, one of these days, six months down the line, are we winning against China? And all of a sudden he g…”
Brad Gerstner Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 1:10:54 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
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