stock market

also referred to as: stock markets

30 statements across 25 episodes · 9 bullish · 11 bearish · 8 people on the record · first statement Mar 15, 2020 by Chamath Palihapitiya · across every show →

Everything said about stock market, oldest first

Mar 15, 2020 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: Stock market bottom will occur in September or October 2020
“So the bottom comes in somewhere between day 200 and day two 50. What that means is that's September to October.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 1:02:25 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
Nov 4, 2020 bullish
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: Stock market will likely trade up tomorrow regardless of winner
“I think the more surprising thing at this point is it's almost, you know, and I'm certainly going to live to regret this, but it appears at this point that the market's going to be up tomorrow, almost either way.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:24:32 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Markets will rally if Trump wins or Republicans keep Senate control
“Look, I think the market does not want those Trump tax cuts repealed. Stocks just ripped after Trump passed those corporate tax cuts. So if either Trump wins or the Republicans hold on to the Senate, then that would be a reason for the market to rip.”
David Sacks Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:17:16 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 neutral
Insight
Gerstner: Federal Reserve interest rates drive 80-90% of market performance
“If you ask me, you know, we get all excited about the election, we get all excited about stimulus and tax policy, but the biggest elephant in the room is the Fed and rates. That's the 80 to 90% factor in the market this year”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:19:55 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Oct 2, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Tech stocks will get obliterated if market repositions for inflation
“I think the stock market is in a little bit of precarious position, because if you have to reposition yourself for inflation, there's a lot of tech stocks that will get just absolutely obliterated”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 2, 2021 ▶ 44:05 E49: Coinbase CEO reflects on controversial blog, state of the markets, 1000 unicorns & more
Oct 30, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: The stock market gets ugly if the Fed hikes rates
“And if the Fed stops tapering and, you know, hikes rates two or three times over the next 12 or 18 months, man, this is an ugly, ugly stock market.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 30, 2021 ▶ 46:57 E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more
Jan 29, 2022 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Palihapitiya: Stock markets have historically rallied when Fed rate hike cycles start
“From 1950 onwards today, every time the government has started to raise rates or the Federal Reserve has started to raise rates, the stock markets have actually rallied.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 29, 2022 ▶ 41:15 E65: VC markup dynamics, Russia/US tensions over Ukraine, Altos Labs raises $3B, Stripe mafia & more
May 23, 2022 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Gerstner: Tech valuations will not return to 2021 peaks without zero rates
“Pretend you never saw them, not in venture, not in the stock market, because that is a delusional place to think we're getting back there. We're not, unless we have another pandemic or a nuclear war and rates go to zero, and then we have bigger problems.”
Brad Gerstner May 23, 2022 ▶ 15:45 E81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
May 27, 2022 bearish
Prediction Held up
Chamath: The stock market will hit bottom in two to three quarters
“The forecasted earnings will need to be revised over the next two or three quarters, and that's where we will probably see the low.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 27, 2022 ▶ 31:56 E83: Market slide continues, and how to address Uvalde
May 29, 2022
Assertion Partly supported
Hefets: Housing bottomed three years after stock market in GFC
“Bottom of the stock market for the global financial crisis? 3:09 oh nine. Bottom of housing prices? June of 2012. Three years later.”
Adena Hefets May 29, 2022 ▶ 25:08 #AIS: Divvy Homes CEO Adena Hefets breaks down the state of the US housing market
Oct 1, 2022 neutral
Insight
Chamath: The stock market leads the real economy by 9-12 months
“The stock market tends to be nine to 12 months ahead of where we are.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 1, 2022 ▶ 24:36 E98: Big tech starts making cuts, Fed incompetency, global debt, Russia/Ukraine & more
Oct 14, 2022 bullish
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Stock market has reached its near-term bottom
“My thought then, and same is, it's the same that I think now, is that we've effectively seen the near-term bottom, and we're now consolidating.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 14, 2022 ▶ 1:16:18 E100: Reflecting on the first 100 shows, fan questions, nuclear threat, markets, Amazon & more
Feb 4, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Equities will likely rise over the next 30 to 90 days
“I think we're about to replay a little bit of that, at least in the next 30 to 90 days. The paint trade is to go up. So that's probably where we're going.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 4, 2023 ▶ 4:40 E114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
Jul 14, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Stock market bottom will form in the next 12-18 months
“I think right now in the next sort of like, 12 to 18 months is really when the bottom is put into the market. It's before the fed starts cutting.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 14, 2023 ▶ 5:58 E137: Inflation cools, market rips, Ripple/MSFT beat regulators, NATO summit, cocktails of youth
Dec 29, 2023
Prediction Partly held up
Chamath: Stocks will melt up until first Fed rate cut, then drop
“I think now what the setup is for 20, 24 is basically we will melt up. Up until the first cut, and then there'll probably be some real selling.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 29, 2023 ▶ 33:30 E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
Apr 26, 2024
Insight
Chamath: Capital allocation in financial markets reveals true accuracy over media narratives
“When you vote with money, it's very clear and unambiguous because you actually move in the direction of accuracy, and that's what the stock market allows you to see”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 26:39 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Jun 14, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: AI stocks are holding up the entire market
“The AI stocks have, are holding up the whole market.”
David Sacks Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 1:16:32 Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Mar 1, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Cementing political power requires walking down stock and real estate markets
“I think if you want to cement political power, I think it requires a walking down of these asset markets in a meaningful way. That's stocks and that's real estate. And I just don't see any other way around it.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 1, 2025 ▶ 46:25 Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Mar 1, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Chamath: Stock market is slightly expensive and not that attractive
“So I think the stock market on the margin is a little expensive and not particularly that attractive.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 1, 2025 ▶ 32:35 Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Apr 4, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Trump administration does not care about stock market performance
“The Trump administration does not care about the stock market.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 49:50 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 11, 2025 negative
What-if
Summers: Targeted tariffs would not have caused a $5 trillion stock drop
“If President Trump had announced a big broadening of anti-dumping law to confront a variety of instances of what he, what the administration, after careful economic analysis, saw as inappropriate subsidy, I might or might not have thought that they were doing …”
Larry Summers Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 49:56 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 26, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Bill Ackman and Ken Griffin recently turned negative on markets
“Ackman's been negative. Ken Griffin recently turned negative.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 4:00 Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Jul 19, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Stock market would drop significantly if Trump fires Fed Chair Powell
“I do think the market would go down quite a bit more if Trump did fire Powell.”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 7:48 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Oct 16, 2025
Assertion Supported
Sorkin: U.S. stock market ended 1929 down only 17%
“People forget at the end of 29, the stock market actually was down only 17% by the end.”
Andrew Ross Sorkin Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 36:17 1929 vs 2025: Andrew Ross Sorkin on Crashes, Bubbles & Lessons Learned
Oct 16, 2025
Assertion Supported
Sorkin: US stock market rose 48% in 1928
“In 1928, the stock market went up 48%.”
Andrew Ross Sorkin Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 5:30 1929 vs 2025: Andrew Ross Sorkin on Crashes, Bubbles & Lessons Learned
Oct 16, 2025
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Pre-1929 banks used customer deposits to go long equities
“By the way, it wasn't just individuals that was investing and overextended with margin, but the banks would take depositors' money and they were going along the stock market.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 6:36 1929 vs 2025: Andrew Ross Sorkin on Crashes, Bubbles & Lessons Learned
Apr 10, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Stock market could take off if foreign policy deals land
“You could envision a world, there's risk to the downside, certainly, I will stipulate, but you also have to pay attention to the risk to the upside. If you land the plane on those things, heading into America, two 50, July fourth, the market could really take …”
Brad Gerstner Apr 10, 2026 ▶ 1:14:58 Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence
Apr 17, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Chamath notes a 5 percent April gain averages 32 percent yearly return
“And it's up five percent in the first, you know, half of April, typically the market is up almost 32% on average for the rest of the year.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 1:16:38 OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out
Jun 12, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dreyfus: Talen Energy trades at $25B EV versus $45B asset replacement cost
“Today, in the stock market, as a good speculation, you could purchase this company at a twenty-five billion dollar enterprise value. The replacement cost is forty-five billion, and because they've got debt, it means that the equity value, ah, just to get to re…”
Dan Dreyfus Jun 12, 2026 ▶ 16:10 All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live
Jul 24, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Intervening against open-source AI will tank the US stock market
“Now, there's another important thing here, which is if the United States government intervenes, it will tank the stock market.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 11:43 The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
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