startup

also referred to as: startups

40 statements across 36 episodes · 11 bullish · 20 bearish · 6 people on the record · first statement Mar 15, 2020 by David Friedberg · across every show →

Everything said about startup, oldest first

Mar 15, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts roughly 60% of startups will fail to reach next round
“Now we're talking about probably 60% of things are not going to make it to their next round.”
David Friedberg Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 1:23:26 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
Mar 19, 2020 bearish
Insight
Chamath: Startups need at least 36 months of cash runway
“So I don't think 18 months is sufficient. I think you need at least 36 months.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 19, 2020 ▶ 39:54 E1: US Response to COVID-19 & Impact on Startups, VC & Public Markets with David Friedberg
Jul 31, 2020
Insight
Sacks: Big Tech outsources R&D by acquiring winning startups
“Big companies have realized they're not very good at R&D, at sort of good, at sort of new product development, and so what they have done is they have outsourced a lot of their R&D budgets to M&A, and so they let the startups run the experiments, you know, in …”
David Sacks Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 25:44 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
May 1, 2021 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: About half of tech startups have an immigrant co-founder
“Something like half of startups have an immigrant co-founder.”
David Sacks May 1, 2021 ▶ 40:33 E31: Post-vaccination virtue signaling, pandemic lessons, immigration, Caitlyn Jenner for CA & more
Jun 18, 2021 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Breaking up Big Tech is unanimously good for startups and consumers
“Unanimously good for startups in any scenario in which they get involved. And I think in most cases in which the government gets involved, it's good for consumers as well.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 18, 2021 ▶ 22:05 E36: New FTC Chair, breaking up big tech, government silent spying, Jon Stewart, wildfires & more
Sep 14, 2021 positive
Insight
Sacks: Markets drive progress better than politics because startups need only one funder
“This is why markets work better than politics, because Freeburg, in order for you to pursue what you want to pursue, you don't have to convince a majority of the country to support it. You just need to find one person who's willing to fund it. You know, you ra…”
David Sacks Sep 14, 2021 ▶ 58:35 E46: False Ivermectin narratives, regulatory grift, wartime mentality in solving issues & more
Oct 16, 2021 positive
Insight
Sachs: Aspiring venture investors should get startup operating experience first
“My recommendation would be to get involved in startups first, generally get some operating experience, and that would serve you well.”
David Sacks Oct 16, 2021 ▶ 1:27:36 E51: Supply Chain Shortages, Inflation, DeSantis, Ted Sarandos Netflix Memo, Cancel Culture, Fan Q&A
Oct 30, 2021 negative
Insight
Sacks: Startup founders cannot take six months of paternity leave
“When you're a startup, you face existential decisions daily, weekly, or monthly. You can't just disappear for six months. It's not going to work.”
David Sacks Oct 30, 2021 ▶ 4:09 E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more
Dec 11, 2021 bearish
Opinion
David Friedberg argues asset bubbles exist everywhere from crypto to real estate.
“You know, we're seeing asset bubbles everywhere in NFTs, in crypto, in startups, in new startups, in new ideas, in home prices, in everything.”
David Friedberg Dec 11, 2021 ▶ 18:07 E58: November's CPI, preparing for a downturn, macro outlook, Better.com's botched layoffs & more
Apr 9, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Startups face 18 months of unfavorable venture fundraising terms
“And I think the worst means that there's an 18 month period where you cannot raise money on your terms. You have to raise money on the market terms.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 9, 2022 ▶ 13:37 E75: Fast shuts down, board culpability, Elon buys 9% of Twitter, deplatforming's evolution & more
May 13, 2022
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: High-growth, moderate-burn startups will get funded; high-burn won't
“Startups with high growth and moderate burn will get funded through this downturn. Starts with moderate growth and high burn will not get funded.”
David Sacks May 13, 2022 ▶ 50:06 E80: Recession deep dive: VC psychology, macro risks, Tiger Global, predictions and more
May 27, 2022 bearish
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Distressed startups will face heavy structural deal terms later in 2022
“We don't like to do deals that way, but you'll start to see them happen later this year when, you know, companies get more desperate.”
David Sacks May 27, 2022 ▶ 34:31 E83: Market slide continues, and how to address Uvalde
May 27, 2022 bullish
Insight
Chamath: Startups that cut costs to the bone will win the market
“And if you can basically make your cash last as long as possible, even if you cut to the bone and stop growing. If you come out the other end, and you're the only company that's left, you will win and run over the market.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 27, 2022 ▶ 37:51 E83: Market slide continues, and how to address Uvalde
Aug 13, 2022 negative
Insight
David Friedberg: Startups where capital becomes the primary asset will fail
“And the problem in that model is that by giving you so much money, capital becomes your primary asset as a business. And capital needs to be the fuel that enables your assets as a business to accelerate. But as soon as capital itself becomes your primary asset…”
David Friedberg Aug 13, 2022 ▶ 13:20 E91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
Oct 1, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Big tech non-core project cuts will heavily benefit startups
“No, but to the point of competition, you you're seeing cuts to, you know, all the non core projects at these big companies. This is going to be great for startups, right? Like the idea that Facebook could focus on, you know, a fourth, fifth, sixth thing is goi…”
Jason Calacanis Oct 1, 2022 ▶ 21:22 E98: Big tech starts making cuts, Fed incompetency, global debt, Russia/Ukraine & more
Nov 12, 2022 bearish
Disclosure
Chamath: Social Capital instructs portfolio startups to maintain cash through Q1 2025
“I've been telling all of our startups that you need to plan to have money through the first quarter of 2025.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 12, 2022 ▶ 1:12:27 E104: FTX collapse with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong + election results, macro update & more
Jan 13, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Startups won't build AI models, only build on APIs
“I don't think startups are going to be able to create the AI themselves, but they might be able to benefit from the APIs.”
David Sacks Jan 13, 2023 ▶ 32:49 E111: Microsoft to invest $10B in OpenAI, generative AI hype, America's over-classification problem
Feb 4, 2023 bearish
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Startups face major cash crunch and down rounds in 2023–2024
“The crunch is going to happen. Second half of 20 23 and 20 24. That's where you're going to see the down rounds. That's where you're going to see the restructuring, the recaps and all the rest of it.”
David Sacks Feb 4, 2023 ▶ 57:52 E114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
Mar 17, 2023 positive
Insight
Sacks: Startups should use US Treasury money market funds over bond ladders
“Whenever they try to, let me just say when starts trying to create laddered bond portfolios, They end up needing the money sooner than they thought. What I'd much rather see a startup do is buy a hundred percent UST bill backed money market fund run by the abs…”
David Sacks Mar 17, 2023 ▶ 52:41 E120: Banking crisis and the great VC reset
Aug 26, 2023 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Most startups are currently in the financial danger zone
“Most startups in startup world right now are in the danger zone.”
David Sacks Aug 26, 2023 ▶ 51:42 E143: Nvidia smashes earnings, Arm walks the plank, M&A market, Vivek dominates GOP debate & more
Aug 26, 2023 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: More startups are pursuing acq-hires as venture funding dries up
“There's definitely a growing number of startups who are realizing that what they're doing is not working, and they're not going to be able to raise another round, and so therefore figuring out a graceful exit, whether it's an aqua hire or some other type of la…”
David Sacks Aug 26, 2023 ▶ 43:20 E143: Nvidia smashes earnings, Arm walks the plank, M&A market, Vivek dominates GOP debate & more
Sep 16, 2023
Insight
Gurley: Startups disrupt by entering with simpler, lower-feature products before moving upmarket
“The way startups disrupt is they come in with lower feature products, but a feature that really matters to the customer and a simpler product, and they move up.”
Bill Gurley Sep 16, 2023 ▶ 14:10 All-In Summit: Bill Gurley presents 2,851 Miles
Sep 22, 2023 bearish
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: LP capital and startup funding will fall significantly in aggregate
“On a day to day basis, it means there's gonna be less companies that are going to get funded, but more importantly, it's gonna be less LP money going into venture. And there's going to be less capital available to fund startups in aggregate by a significant am…”
David Friedberg Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 1:21:58 E146: Did the Fed break the VC model? Plus IPOs, M&A, revaluing unicorns & more
Sep 22, 2023 bearish
Insight
Chamath: Startups must extend cash runway into 2026 to survive
“I think now you got to be Q one of 26. And maybe even mid-twenty-six.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 1:17:22 E146: Did the Fed break the VC model? Plus IPOs, M&A, revaluing unicorns & more
Jan 13, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sacks declares large DEI bureaucracies are the kiss of death for startups
“I mean, look, big companies can kind of afford this stuff, but startups cannot. I mean, this is really the kiss of death for startups. You just can't afford to have these large bureaucracies.”
David Sacks Jan 13, 2024 ▶ 1:29:34 E161: US strikes Houthis, market instability, Q1 rate cuts in doubt, Carta's major mishap, DEI
Feb 9, 2024 negative
Insight
Sacks: Struggling startups can no longer blame macroeconomic conditions
“By the same token, if you're a startup and you're not seeing improvement in your Q for sales, then you no longer have a macro excuse for why you're not doing well.”
David Sacks Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 38:38 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Feb 17, 2024 neutral
Insight
Calacanis: Early-stage startups are shifting equity to top 10% and outsourcing rest
“The trend I'm seeing with startups, like early stage startups, seed stage startups, which are really indicative of what startups will do later on, hiring people, cash basis, paying them hourly outside the United States, not having to worry about stock options,…”
Jason Calacanis Feb 17, 2024 ▶ 59:13 E166: Mind-blowing AI Video: OpenAI launches Sora + Is Biden too old? Tucker/Putin interview & more
Feb 17, 2024
Insight
Friedberg: Capital injected before an engine is built destroys startups
“If you don't have a business That can handle the gas you're putting in the tank. The engine's going to blow up. The engine has to grow. It has to build. The volume has to build so that it can actually handle the fuel.”
David Friedberg Feb 17, 2024 ▶ 12:18 E166: Mind-blowing AI Video: OpenAI launches Sora + Is Biden too old? Tucker/Putin interview & more
Mar 8, 2024
Insight
Sacks: Innovating on corporate structure almost always backfires for startups
“Never innovate on structure. All you do is create legal problems. There's a tried and true way of creating a startup, which is a C Corp. When you try to innovate on legal instead of product, it almost always backfires.”
David Sacks Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 18:38 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 22, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: NAR ruling will spark AI startups providing direct real estate services
“And I think it's a great opportunity for startups, I'll say this right now, like I think there's going to be a lot of startups that are going to come out of this ruling that are going to launch a la carte services leveraging AI to make these services available…”
David Friedberg Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 42:02 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
May 17, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Early startup seed requests dropped from $3M to $500K-$1M
“The same startups that had A request of three million dollars in funding five years ago are now requesting 500 to a million.”
Jason Calacanis May 17, 2024 ▶ 1:22:04 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Jun 29, 2024 negative
Insight
Sacks: Startups should use standard C-Corps instead of innovating on structure
“It's not a good idea for startups to innovate on structure. Using a tried and true C-Corp Is the way to go.”
David Sacks Jun 29, 2024 ▶ 45:16 Presidential Debate Reaction, Biden Hot Swap?, Tech unemployment, OpenAI considers for-profit & more
Oct 25, 2024
Insight
David Sacks: Startup founders must mentally burn their boats to succeed
“You kind of have to mentally burn the boats when you do a startup.”
David Sacks Oct 25, 2024 ▶ 37:57 Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
May 31, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Startups are regularly achieving $1 million in revenue per employee
“Now we're regularly seeing startups hit a million dollars in revenue per employee, something that was rarefied air previously, which then speaks to your point, Freeberg, that there'll be more abundance.”
Jason Calacanis May 31, 2025 ▶ 32:53 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
Jul 4, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: State-level AI rules will slow startups and benefit incumbents
“Not having it, I think the risk is that if you have 50 different sets of regulation, and it won't even just be 50 as Freebrick said, it's going to be You know, all kinds of pet organizations that pop up in all of these states. What happens? I think what it doe…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 10:37 Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
Sep 24, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schmidt: AI recursive self-improvement is 5 to 10 years away
“Not yet. I'm, I've funded a number of startups which claim to be close to it, but of course these are startups and you never know, which tells me it's five, 10 years.”
Eric Schmidt Sep 24, 2025 ▶ 27:39 Eric Schmidt on AI, the Battle with China, and the Future of America
Oct 3, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Patchwork of 50 state AI reporting regimes will trap startups
“So you've got 50 different states, each with their own reporting regime, which is going to be a trap for startups.”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2025 ▶ 1:10:26 Biggest LBO Ever, SPAC 2.0, Open Source AI Models, State AI Regulation Frenzy
Feb 13, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Every startup in his network is hiring AI agent managers
“Every startup I know is hiring for this position, which is somebody who knows how to build and manage agents.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 13, 2026 ▶ 4:27 Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV
Jul 3, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Frontier AI platforms will absorb their startup partners' businesses
“If you partner with any of these people, they will slit your throat and take your business wholesale.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 20:22 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 10, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Calacanis: Portfolio startups now create launch videos in two weeks
“I've seen with a lot of the startups I'm investing in now, They'll just spend a week or two working with you know, a director to make a launch video.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 10, 2026 ▶ 51:27 Open Source Wins, AGI Is Here, and Scorsese’s AI Toolkit with CEOs of Cerebras & Black Forest Labs
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