Senate
9 statements across 8 episodes · 1 bullish · 3 bearish · 5 people on the record · first statement Nov 4, 2020 by Chamath Palihapitiya · across every show →
Everything said about Senate, oldest first
Nov 4, 2020 neutral
Jan 23, 2021
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Nov 8, 2024 negative
Jan 19, 2025 positive
Mar 8, 2025
May 25, 2025 negative
Jun 29, 2026
Nate Silver: Conditional on winning Senate, Democrats almost certainly win House
“They're almost perfectly correlated. So if the odds of Democrats winning the Senate, but not the House are like one percent, if you go to Kalshi or Polymarket, whatever else, they have to be like around one percent. So conditional on Democrats winning the Sena…”
Jun 29, 2026
Nate Silver: GOP has a slight edge to retain the Senate
“Whereas on the flip side, needing to pick up four Senate seats when you might blow the opportunity in Maine, it's a toss up probably, probably slight edge to the GOP with maybe gas prices and Iran determining whether it's more truly fifty-fifty or maybe, maybe…”