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Optimus

11 statements across 8 episodes · 11 bullish · 0 bearish · 3 people on the record · first statement Apr 26, 2024 by Jason Calacanis · said 7 times in 5 episodes since 2025 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Jason Calacanis (5), Elon Musk (1)

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2026 4 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode
2025 3 mentions in 3 episodes 1 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Optimus, oldest first

Apr 26, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Calacanis: Optimus robot will dwarf all other Tesla businesses
“I think Optimus will dwarf the entire entirety of Tesla's other businesses.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 36:52 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Apr 26, 2024 positive
Opinion
Friedberg says Tesla Optimus has highest upside but highest risk
“I think the Optimus has the highest alpha, but the highest beta. So, you know, more upside than anything else, just unclear how you get there, what the path is and the capital requirements.”
David Friedberg Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 32:19 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Jul 12, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Calacanis predicts humanoid robots like Optimus will cost only $20,000
“I think there's going to be some incredible gains with Optimus and some of the other robots that are occurring, and those things are only going to cost 20 grand.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 12, 2024 ▶ 38:10 Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Sep 10, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Musk: Tesla Optimus could reach 1M units annually in 5-6 years
“It's probably on the order of five, five years. Maybe, maybe six to get to a million units a year.”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 49:33 Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: In-home humanoid robots are the next giant consumer market
“That seems like that's obviously the next giant consumer market is having optimists or figure in your house.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 47:47 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Sep 10, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: Optimus will be the biggest product ever if successful
“I think it is accurate to say that if successful, Optimus will be the biggest product ever.”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 4:58 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
Sep 10, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: Optimus production cost will be ~$20k at 1M units annually
“I think the marginal cost of production once you hit a million units per year is probably around the 20,000 dollar range.”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 5:24 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
Sep 10, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Musk spends more mental cycles on Optimus than any other project
“It might be more of my mental cycles than anything, anything else, any other single thing on Optimus.”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 4:08 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
Jan 14, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Tesla will produce 1B Optimus robots and won't be remembered for cars
“I can tell you now, nobody will remember that Tesla ever made a car. They will only remember the Optimus and that he is going to make a billion of those.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 14, 2026 ▶ 39:13 Why AI will dwarf every tech revolution before it: robots, manufacturing, AR glasses from CES 2026
Jul 3, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Calacanis: Tesla's Optimus is superior to Figure's humanoid robot
“I can tell you Optimus is better than what Figure's doing.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 47:32 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Aug 29, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot will be the world's best-selling product
“Optimist will be the best selling. I think product.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 6:41 Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
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