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Nate Silver

17 statements across 3 episodes · 2 bullish · 2 bearish · 2 people on the record · first statement May 30, 2022 by Nate Silver · said 53 times in 22 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

On the record as a speaker too: Nate Silver's record, appearances and statements → this page counts the times other people say the name.

Mentions by year

brought up most by Jason Calacanis (22), David Friedberg (15), Chamath Palihapitiya (10), David Sacks (4), Tim Urban (1), Haralabos Voulgaris (1)

tap a year for its mentions
00208401520202021202220232024episodesmentions
081520202021202220232024episodes it came up in
0027.541520202021202220232024episodesmentions per episode
2024 34 mentions in 11 episodes 3 per episode
2023 3 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode
2022 10 mentions in 7 episodes 1 per episode
2021 2 mentions in 1 episode
2020 4 mentions in 1 episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Nate Silver, oldest first

May 30, 2022
Assertion Supported
Nate Silver claims he is ranked 301st in global poker rankings
“I'm currently I think number three-oh-one in the global poker rankings.”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 1:59 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
May 30, 2022
Insight
Silver: Successful gamblers must be contrarian to maintain a market edge
“Successful gamblers are contrarian, at least to some degree. And again, I'm kind of repeating myself a little bit, but there's no edge if someone, if everyone does the same thing in the same way.”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 7:00 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
May 30, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Silver: Sam Bankman-Fried accepted bets with 50% failure odds for huge payoffs
“I talked to Sam Beckman-Fried for the book, for example, and he's like, yeah, I knew this would have like a, only a 50% chance of succeeding, but the payoff was so high, I would take it.”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 9:12 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
May 30, 2022
Opinion
Silver: Highly successful individuals may take on excessive risk
“The people who are super uber successful maybe are almost taking on more risk than they maybe should.”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 9:32 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
May 30, 2022
Disclosure
Nate Silver: All-In game was his largest cash poker win ever
“Largest cash game win, yeah... Two.”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 0:43 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
May 30, 2022
Insight
Silver: VC investing requires being six to twelve months ahead of the curve
“In VC, I mean, you might want to find a founder or a sector or a company that's undervalued by the market, but eventually you want that sector to grow. You want to attract more talent. You want to attract future fundraising rounds. So you kind of are more bein…”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 8:05 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
Aug 2, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Nate Silver's model gives Trump 56.9% Electoral College chance
“Harris currently has a 42.5% probability of winning the Electoral College. Trump 56.9%. Kennedy coming in at zero percent. On the popular vote, Harris has a 57.1% probability of winning the popular vote. 42.9% probability for Trump.”
David Friedberg Aug 2, 2024 ▶ 1:36 Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Jun 29, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Nate Silver: 43 states can be predicted for 2028 with 97% confidence
“43 of the 50 states, David, we could probably predict right now with 97% confidence who they'll vote for in 2028, and it's not because of rigging, it's because polarization and partisanship are very powerful forces that we can't seem to escape from.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 22:02 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
Jun 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Nate Silver: Immigrant and entrepreneurial groups are shifting away from Democrats
“You have seen shifts in those groups and the most entrepreneurial groups away from Democrats.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 34:04 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
Jun 29, 2026
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Nate Silver: GOP has a slight edge to retain the Senate
“Whereas on the flip side, needing to pick up four Senate seats when you might blow the opportunity in Maine, it's a toss up probably, probably slight edge to the GOP with maybe gas prices and Iran determining whether it's more truly fifty-fifty or maybe, maybe…”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 53:40 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
Jun 29, 2026
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Nate Silver: Democrats have an 85% to 90% chance to take the House
“Prediction markets say Democrats are around, I think, 80 or 85% to take the House and 40 or 45% to take the Senate. Those both seem pretty reasonable to me. I think, if anything, it's a little bit low on the House. I think it might be more like 85 or 90.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 50:02 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
Jun 29, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nate Silver: California's official vote count accurately reflects ballots cast
“I think the California vote count is an accurate tally of the votes that were cast.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 14:28 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
Jun 29, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Nate Silver discloses that he consults for Polymarket
“I consult for Polymarket, I should say.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 4:07 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
Jun 29, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Nate Silver: Recounts almost never overturn vote margins above 0.05%
“Almost never have you had a margin larger than oh point oh five percent or so overturned.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 20:04 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
Jun 29, 2026 positive
Opinion
Nate Silver: The AI capital boom is keeping the stock market afloat
“I personally think the AI capital boom, whatever becomes of it is responsible for keeping our economy, at least the stock market in relatively good shape.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 33:27 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
Jun 29, 2026 negative
Disclosure
Nate Silver says DraftKings and BetMGM limited his betting accounts
“So I've been limited by DraftKings and MGM.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 3:57 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
Jun 29, 2026
Assertion Supported
Nate Silver: Socialism is significantly more popular among younger Democrats
“I think people who are a little bit older don't realize that like the socialism brand Is much more popular among younger Democrats.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 33:04 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
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