California

218 statements across 87 episodes · 30 bullish · 141 bearish · 30 people on the record · first statement Apr 11, 2020 by David Sacks · said 1,296 times in 234 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Jason Calacanis (318), David Sacks (300), David Friedberg (234), Chamath Palihapitiya (207), Brad Gerstner (23), Jan Sramek (14), Tucker Carlson (11), Bill Gurley (10)

tap a year for its mentions
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025502020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
0052510502020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 286 mentions in 41 episodes 7 per episode
2025 300 mentions in 49 episodes 6 per episode
2024 118 mentions in 37 episodes 3 per episode
2023 76 mentions in 30 episodes 3 per episode
2022 137 mentions in 30 episodes 5 per episode
2021 293 mentions in 36 episodes 8 per episode
2020 86 mentions in 11 episodes 8 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about California, oldest first

Apr 11, 2020
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: A one-week pandemic delay explains New York's 12x higher infection rate
“If in New York New York's been hit about 12 times harder than California, but if the doubling time is just two days one week is a 12 x difference.”
David Sacks Apr 11, 2020 ▶ 10:16 E2: Rebooting economy, understanding corporate debt, avoiding a depression & more with David Sacks
May 21, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath predicts people will leave California in droves
“I think people will, are going to leave in droves, honestly.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 21, 2020 ▶ 45:10 E3: Modern Cold War, politicizing the pandemic & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg
Sep 9, 2020 negative
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts California will fail to pass police reform legislation
“We are not going to have police reform of any kind in California, which is where you'd think would be the first state where people got their act together and said, okay, if we really believe that we need to reform police we can do it in our own backyards, but …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 9, 2020 ▶ 18:22 E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more
Sep 9, 2020 neutral
Disclosure
Chamath says his tax structure prevents California from accessing his assets
“My taxes I've set up in such a way where California can't get access to most of my assets anyway.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 9, 2020 ▶ 8:02 E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more
Sep 9, 2020 negative
Opinion
Chamath calls California's political leadership 'clowns in a clown car'
“California is like a, Bunch of clowns in a clown car right now. It's a joke.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 9, 2020 ▶ 7:54 E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more
Oct 16, 2020 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Mark Zuckerberg contributed $11M to California's Proposition 15 campaign
“So so I saw that, that Mark Zuckerberg had contributed eleven million dollars to try and convince the people of California to vote for this prop 15, which is the largest property tax increase in California history.”
David Sacks Oct 16, 2020 ▶ 46:25 E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more
Nov 4, 2020 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Vox stopped hiring and laid off California freelancers over AB-5
“Well, in one of the businesses I run, Inside.com, we had to tell all of the freelancers we were hiring who are writers that they would lose their gig work with us because they could only write five stories a year or 10 stories a year, and Vox, one of the big p…”
Jason Calacanis Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:09:33 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: US will see largest economic migration in country's history
“I think we're going to have the single largest migration of economic the single largest economic migration in the history of this country.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:25:16 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Gurley: Over 100 industries were exempted from California's AB-5
“So by the time AB five was set to be put in action, there were over a hundred industries that have been carved out because it was a stupid law written just to target and a single industry.”
Bill Gurley Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:07:55 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 negative
Opinion
Gurley: PAGA drives more companies out of California than AB5
“The rule, the law that's causing more companies to leave from my perspective than AB five is something called PAGA.”
Bill Gurley Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:21:41 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Dec 18, 2020
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Lockdown hypocrisy could spark a California recall election next year
“This is why there could be a big recall next year in California.”
David Sacks Dec 18, 2020 ▶ 1:08:41 E15: “The Besties” All-In’s inaugural award show covering the best, worst & most memorable of 2020
Jan 23, 2021 positive
Disclosure
Chamath outlines his California gubernatorial platform if Newsom is recalled
“If Newsom is recalled, I would like to put my name on the ballot, and my commitments are quite simple. I just want to, I'm going to cut the taxes to zero, and I'm going to basically create an incredibly pro-climate change Jobs and pro tech jobs and pro biotech…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 1:21:31 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 23, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: California trails Texas, New York, and Florida in vaccine deployment rate
“We've only deployed 37% of our doses in California. And that makes us, you know, of the major states that are putting out a lot of these vaccines one of the worst performers second. Texas and Florida and New York are the other large states, and they're at 56, …”
Jason Calacanis Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 1:07:45 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 23, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: California ranks worst in taxes, schools, infrastructure, and veteran homelessness
“We're the most heavily taxed. Number two, we are, we have some of the worst infrastructure in the country. We have some of the lowest and poorest performing schools in the country. We have the highest homeless rates for veterans in the country.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 1:09:00 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 23, 2021 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Most California COVID-19 spread occurred in multi-generational homes, not businesses
“I think most of the spread is not happening at businesses. It's happening in homes. And in California, we have a particularly difficult problem because of multi-generational family homes, especially in the Latino communities that have been hardest hit by COVID…”
David Friedberg Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 1:15:10 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 23, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: California has higher COVID deaths per capita than Florida
“We now have certainly more cases. We have more deaths and we have more deaths per capita than Florida, despite the fact that Florida has no lockdowns and a much older population.”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 1:10:21 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 23, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Losing tech and climate jobs will trigger multi-generational decay for California
“If these climate jobs and these technology jobs and these biotechnology jobs pivot to more accepting and progressive local and state managements like Austin, Texas and Miami, Florida, we lose these things forever. This is a multi-generational decay that we're …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 1:09:38 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 30, 2021 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Tens of thousands signed up for California campaign updates
“I can say that tens of thousands of people have signed up for updates.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 30, 2021 ▶ 1:16:41 E19: Robinhood's GameStop decision: Why did it happen and how can it be prevented in the future?
Feb 3, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Gavin Newsom will not solve California's governance problems
“He's worked his way up the ladder of California politics by, you know, by basically benefiting from these special interests throughout his rise. You know, you step by step. He's never challenged the insiders or any special interests. He just kind of caters to …”
David Sacks Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 34:29 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
Feb 3, 2021 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Top 1% of households pay half of California personal income tax
“The state of California generates about a hundred and forty billion dollars in revenue. 70% of that comes from personal income tax, and as Sachs pointed out, half of that comes from the top one percent or 40,000 households.”
David Friedberg Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 38:47 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
Feb 3, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: California has 340,000 public workers earning over $100K
“In California, we have over 340,000 public employees who make over a 100,000 dollars a year that cost taxpayers over forty five billion, okay?”
David Sacks Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 34:02 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
Feb 3, 2021 positive
Opinion
Palihapitiya proposes California offer tax credits for startup equity
“What if whenever you started a company in California, you got, you know, three or four years worth of tax credits for engineers in return for one percent of the equity that California was not allowed to sell.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 1:01:49 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
Feb 3, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: 53% of Californians want to leave the state
“53% of Californians want to leave the state and 63% of Californians believe the American dream is dead.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 33:19 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
Feb 3, 2021
Disclosure
Chamath says he would serve only 18 months if elected in California
“The reality is that if I were to do it, if like all the checks came back and it seemed like it was a plausible thing, I would only do it for the 18 months”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 1:06:57 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
Feb 3, 2021
Disclosure
Chamath will not run for office if forced to abandon battery project
“I'm working on something in batteries that I think is, it's important for a lot of places much, you know, more than just California. And so like, if I have to abandon this battery project, I wouldn't do it, you know, just that simple.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 1:05:06 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
Feb 3, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Government workers will soon be California's only remaining middle class
“The only middle class that's going to be left in California pretty soon are government workers.”
David Sacks Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 1:01:10 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
Feb 3, 2021 positive
Disclosure
Chamath proposes eliminating personal income tax in California, offset by corporate taxes
“The second thing I would probably do is I would actually just cut all taxes to zero on the personal side, but I would introduce a progressive taxation system for corporations.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 1:16:13 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
Feb 3, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Reagan defunded California mental health institutions as governor
“Reagan was the one that defunded all of the mental health institutions, you know, when he was governor of California and sent all these folks spilling into the streets.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 53:09 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
Feb 3, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Chamath: California had $11B in confirmed unemployment fraud in 2020
“Thirty billion dollars of potential fraudulent unemployment benefits From 2020, eleven billion already determined fraudulent.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 31:57 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
Feb 3, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: California public schools spend $18,000 per student with above-average class sizes
“The average student in California costs 18,000 dollars a year, roughly, ok? And we have a classroom size on average of about 25 students. It's actually higher than the national average.”
David Sacks Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 1:13:35 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
Feb 20, 2021 bearish
Assertion Supported
Sacks: California has accumulated $1 trillion in unpayable pension obligations
“I mean, there's a California version of this where we've accrued a trillion dollars of pension obligations that we have no ability to pay”
David Sacks Feb 20, 2021 ▶ 1:13:16 E23: Radical DAs, breaking down FB/Google vs. Australia, sustained fear post-vaccine & fan questions
Feb 20, 2021 negative
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks predicts Gavin Newsom will be recalled over closures and crime
“And if these two things don't turn around, I think Gavin Newsom is going to get recalled.”
David Sacks Feb 20, 2021 ▶ 52:41 E23: Radical DAs, breaking down FB/Google vs. Australia, sustained fear post-vaccine & fan questions
Feb 20, 2021 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: California has 4-5 million COVID vaccines in storage
“California's got like four or five million vaccines sitting in storage.”
David Friedberg Feb 20, 2021 ▶ 51:24 E23: Radical DAs, breaking down FB/Google vs. Australia, sustained fear post-vaccine & fan questions
Mar 6, 2021 negative
Prediction Held up
Sacks predicts almost every US state will reopen by July 2021
“Newsom has said the state won't reopen until August, but I think that by May, June, July, you will see just about every other state reopen.”
David Sacks Mar 6, 2021 ▶ 50:02 E24: Markets trend down, political pandemic manipulation, stimulus breakdown, biological Patriot Act
Mar 6, 2021 negative
Prediction Held up
Sacks predicts Gavin Newsom recall election will occur around August 2021
“They're up to 1.95 million signatures. So, 50,000 votes short of two million. They will be At or over two million in two weeks, which is the end of the signature period, their validation rate is about 84%. So, I think this is clearly going to pass. There will …”
David Sacks Mar 6, 2021 ▶ 49:38 E24: Markets trend down, political pandemic manipulation, stimulus breakdown, biological Patriot Act
Mar 6, 2021 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: California spent $100M on a no-bid vaccine website contract
“There was a hundred million dollars spent on Accenture to build the vaccination website. No bid contract.”
David Friedberg Mar 6, 2021 ▶ 25:28 E24: Markets trend down, political pandemic manipulation, stimulus breakdown, biological Patriot Act
Mar 13, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Newsom announced reserving 40% of CA vaccines for equity zones
“Newsom just announced that 40% of the vaccines are now going to be Basically separated out and reserved for equity zones”
David Sacks Mar 13, 2021 ▶ 6:24 E25: Biden's vaccine mandate, "equity" in distribution, NFT speculation, impact of inflation & more
Mar 13, 2021 negative
Opinion
Chamath: California's vaccine equity plan enriches consultants via no-bid contracts
“All that does is put money through some no-bid contract to some shitty technical company a bunch of consultants that then take advantage of the system, get paid hundreds of millions or billions of dollars, To do nothing.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 13, 2021 ▶ 6:45 E25: Biden's vaccine mandate, "equity" in distribution, NFT speculation, impact of inflation & more
Mar 13, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: California holds 4.5M unused vaccine doses in inventory
“So in California yesterday, just yesterday, we added. 250,000 more doses of unused inventory. So we, the amount grew to 4.5 million unused doses sitting on a shelf. Only 215,000 people got vaccinated.”
David Sacks Mar 13, 2021 ▶ 2:23 E25: Biden's vaccine mandate, "equity" in distribution, NFT speculation, impact of inflation & more
Mar 13, 2021 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: All high-risk California residents already have vaccine access
“Anybody who's high risk Has already gotten the vaccine by now, or has had access to get the vaccine.”
David Sacks Mar 13, 2021 ▶ 8:42 E25: Biden's vaccine mandate, "equity" in distribution, NFT speculation, impact of inflation & more
Mar 13, 2021 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: Anyone in CA can get a COVID vaccine with doctor note discretion
“Starting on Monday. You can, anyone in California can get the vaccine with a doctor's note. And they're saying that doctors have total discretion To give the note.”
David Sacks Mar 13, 2021 ▶ 9:03 E25: Biden's vaccine mandate, "equity" in distribution, NFT speculation, impact of inflation & more
Mar 13, 2021 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Calacanis: California daily COVID vaccinations dropped two-thirds under Gavin Newsom
“We hit 500,000 shots a day Sachs in California, and now we're down to a 150,000. We've literally gone down two thirds under the management of governor hair gel.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 13, 2021 ▶ 16:01 E25: Biden's vaccine mandate, "equity" in distribution, NFT speculation, impact of inflation & more
Apr 1, 2021
Opinion
Sacks: New York and California have more COVID PTSD than Miami
“I also think that we should do Miami first, because they're not, afraid to come out to an audience. I think that people in New York and California still have, they have more PTSD.”
David Sacks Apr 1, 2021 ▶ 1:11:57 E28: Current state of public & private markets, Archegos debacle, US debt issues, wealth tax & more
Apr 1, 2021 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: California wealth tax will decrease tax revenue as rich residents leave
“You're not going to raise twenty two billion from this. You're going to raise, it's actually going to lead to a decrease in tax revenue because so many of these people are going to leave the state and they're going to take investment with them, their businesse…”
David Sacks Apr 1, 2021 ▶ 1:03:13 E28: Current state of public & private markets, Archegos debacle, US debt issues, wealth tax & more
Apr 17, 2021 negative
Opinion
Gerstner: California holds contempt for capitalism and innovation
“I would contend the even bigger issue is the contempt for capitalism. The contempt for entrepreneurialism and innovation that exists in California.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 17, 2021 ▶ 55:52 E29: Coinbase goes public, direct listings vs. IPOs, unions & more with Bestie Guestie Brad Gerstner
Apr 17, 2021 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks: COVID will end and economy boom by CA recall election
“By the time we actually get around to the recall, which will be in about five or six months the recall election, you know, the economy's going to be booming again. COVID's going to be over. People will probably forget.”
David Sacks Apr 17, 2021 ▶ 13:48 E29: Coinbase goes public, direct listings vs. IPOs, unions & more with Bestie Guestie Brad Gerstner
Apr 17, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: California has 7 million unused COVID vaccine doses
“We've got seven million unused doses sitting on the shelf in California because of all of his crazy eligibility requirements.”
David Sacks Apr 17, 2021 ▶ 13:42 E29: Coinbase goes public, direct listings vs. IPOs, unions & more with Bestie Guestie Brad Gerstner
Apr 23, 2021 positive
Disclosure
Chamath commits to staying in California despite tech migration trends
“I've been here since 2000, I'm not leaving.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 23, 2021 ▶ 41:57 E30: Ramifications of Biden's proposed capital gains tax hike, founder psychology & more
Apr 23, 2021 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis predicts tax hike will accelerate re-domiciling from CA and NY
“I think this is going to take re domiciling to another level. I mean, if you're in New York or California right now, and you were thinking about Wyoming or Utah or Texas or Florida, I mean, this kind of makes the decision for you if it does go to 40”
Jason Calacanis Apr 23, 2021 ▶ 14:12 E30: Ramifications of Biden's proposed capital gains tax hike, founder psychology & more
Apr 23, 2021 neutral
Insight
Friedberg: Duration of California residency determines likelihood of leaving
“I feel like it's a lot harder to leave when you've been here longer, and it's a lot easier to leave when you've been here less time. That certainly seems to be the pattern I've seen amongst friends and colleagues with respect to leaving the state.”
David Friedberg Apr 23, 2021 ▶ 42:00 E30: Ramifications of Biden's proposed capital gains tax hike, founder psychology & more
May 1, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Crime is the number one issue facing California
“There's a lot of issues in California. There's a lot of things that are wrong from homelessness to Unemployment and these crazy COVID restrictions. But the number one issue I think has to be crime.”
David Sacks May 1, 2021 ▶ 1:02:26 E31: Post-vaccination virtue signaling, pandemic lessons, immigration, Caitlyn Jenner for CA & more
May 13, 2021 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis notes California generated a $75 billion state budget surplus
“We have a seventy five billion dollar surplus this year as the city devolves.”
Jason Calacanis May 13, 2021 ▶ 51:00 E32: Behind the scenes of Elon hosting SNL, CDC failures, America's real-time UBI experiment & more
May 13, 2021 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: California has a $4B stem cell grant program
“California, by the way, has about a four billion dollar, if I remember right, stem cell grant program, where they're funding research into stem cell therapies.”
David Friedberg May 13, 2021 ▶ 1:17:41 E32: Behind the scenes of Elon hosting SNL, CDC failures, America's real-time UBI experiment & more
May 13, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: California suffered a net migration loss of 182,000 in 2020
“We had net migration loss of 182,000 in 2020.”
David Sacks May 13, 2021 ▶ 51:49 E32: Behind the scenes of Elon hosting SNL, CDC failures, America's real-time UBI experiment & more
Jun 18, 2021
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: 2020 California wildfires emitted 1.5x more carbon than state vehicles
“Last year based on the forests that burnt in California we released about one and a half times as much carbon into the atmosphere from our forest fires as we did from cars Is burning fossil fuels in the state.”
David Friedberg Jun 18, 2021 ▶ 1:11:17 E36: New FTC Chair, breaking up big tech, government silent spying, Jon Stewart, wildfires & more
Jul 9, 2021
Disclosure
Calacanis announces he is moving to Texas or Florida
“I'm moving to Texas or to Florida. I'm making the announcement now.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 9, 2021 ▶ 58:25 E39: West coast super drought & climate crisis, Nuclear virtue signaling, chaos in SF & more
Jul 9, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis predicts California will suffer a decade-long decline
“I mean, I think California is my position right now is California is going to be on a decade long slide”
Jason Calacanis Jul 9, 2021 ▶ 58:37 E39: West coast super drought & climate crisis, Nuclear virtue signaling, chaos in SF & more
Jul 9, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Desalination cannot resolve drought-driven hydroelectric energy shortages
“Desal plants don't solve the problem of hydroelectric plants, which requires snowpack to melt to get rivers to run to turn those turbines to generate electricity for the state.”
David Friedberg Jul 9, 2021 ▶ 7:27 E39: West coast super drought & climate crisis, Nuclear virtue signaling, chaos in SF & more
Jul 9, 2021 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Israel charges 3x more for water and has surplus per capita
“Israel, correct me if I'm wrong, is now they charge three times as much for water than we do. So people take water seriously, and they actually monitor their water usage, and they have desalinization, and they have more water than they need per capita.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 9, 2021 ▶ 6:32 E39: West coast super drought & climate crisis, Nuclear virtue signaling, chaos in SF & more
Jul 9, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: California snowpack hit zero percent statewide by June 1
“Snowpack level in California reached zero percent throughout the entire state by June first. That has never happened before.”
David Friedberg Jul 9, 2021 ▶ 2:58 E39: West coast super drought & climate crisis, Nuclear virtue signaling, chaos in SF & more
Jul 9, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Newsom falsely claimed 90k treated acres versus 11k actual
“Newsom was recently caught in a lie saying that, you know, they had basically treated 90,000 acres. This is what this article I'll put in the chat said. In reality, that only really treated about 11,000 acres.”
David Sacks Jul 9, 2021 ▶ 14:51 E39: West coast super drought & climate crisis, Nuclear virtue signaling, chaos in SF & more
Jul 16, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: California per-pupil spending is high while student test scores decline
“Take education in California. We have very high levels of per pupil spending and our test scores keep going down.”
David Sacks Jul 16, 2021 ▶ 45:19 E40: A Bestie gets COVID, Delta breakthrough, Billionaire Space Race & more
Sep 14, 2021 negative
Opinion
Gerstner: Tech leaders failed by having no strategic plan for California
“Where we fail as entrepreneurs, where we fail as allocators, is we had no strategic plan for California. We have no strategic alternative plan for America.”
Brad Gerstner Sep 14, 2021 ▶ 1:07:03 E46: False Ivermectin narratives, regulatory grift, wartime mentality in solving issues & more
Sep 18, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: California paid out $30 billion in fraudulent EDD unemployment claims
“This is the EDD fraud where thirty billion basically went to anyone claiming unemployment insurance and thirty billion and fake claims were paid out.”
David Sacks Sep 18, 2021 ▶ 20:45 E47: Facebook's week from hell, Ellen Pao on sexism in Elizabeth Holmes coverage, Newsom wins & more
Dec 4, 2021 positive
Opinion
Sacks: South Florida embraces capitalism and wealth unlike San Francisco
“One difference between Florida or Miami in particular and California and San Francisco in particular is nobody hates money or success over here. They're happy for, you know, all these rich people to come in and spend their money. They really believe in capital…”
David Sacks Dec 4, 2021 ▶ 55:37 E57: Understanding Omicron, tech stocks plummet, VC's great resignation, Jack Dorsey's departure
Dec 23, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Chamath: PG&E was charged with felony manslaughter over California wildfires
“It is PG&E, who this year was charged with felonies and manslaughter in the death of four people because of the wildfires that they started because of their inability to maintain their power infrastructure throughout the state of California.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 1:10:07 E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars
Dec 29, 2021 positive
Prediction Didn’t hold up
David Sacks predicts a $13,000 California school choice voucher ballot initiative
“There's going to be a ballot initiative that says that any Parent who wants to send their kid to an accredited school can get a voucher for 13,000 dollars from the state.”
David Sacks Dec 29, 2021 ▶ 58:18 E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more
Feb 12, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: NY and CA ended mask mandates for adults, but not kids
“In New York and California, adults don't have to wear masks anymore, but the kids do.”
David Sacks Feb 12, 2022 ▶ 1:10:48 E67: Revisiting Rogan, Canadian truckers' protest, fusion breakthrough, $MSFT's savvy move & more
Apr 1, 2022 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: California electricity prices are three times the national average
“Like, for example, you take a state like California, you know, it's the most populous state in the country, it's the richest state in the country, but it has an electricity prices that are three times higher than the national average.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 1, 2022 ▶ 22:32 E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
May 16, 2022 negative
Opinion
Musk: California is now a land of taxes, over-regulation, and litigation
“California has gone from the land of opportunity to the land of sort of taxes, over-regulation and litigation.”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 1:01:50 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
Jun 30, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Sam Bankman-Fried is supporting tax increases in California
“I'm mainly pissed off that SBF is trying to raise my taxes in California.”
David Sacks Jun 30, 2022 ▶ 11:51 E85: SBF's crypto bailout, Zendesk sells for ~$10B, buyout targets, US diplomacy, AlphaFold & more
Aug 20, 2022 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: California needs 3.5 million extra homes by 2025
“If you look at the data, California needs to build three and a half million extra homes by 2025.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 20, 2022 ▶ 31:23 E92: Adam Neumann's second act, a16z's $350M bet, housing policy, Inflation Reduction Act & more
Sep 1, 2022 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: California had net outward migration for the first time in 2021
“In fact, last year, we had, for the first time, Net migration out of the state.”
David Sacks Sep 1, 2022 ▶ 33:06 E94: NFT volume plummets, California's overreach, FBI meddling, climate change & national security
Jan 6, 2023 bearish
Prediction Held up
Sacks predicts massive 2023 budget shortfalls for California and San Francisco
“I think California is my big political loser. And I would say in particular, the city of San Francisco, both are going to have gigantic budget shortfalls.”
David Sacks Jan 6, 2023 ▶ 20:17 E110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
Jan 13, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Chamath: California shifted overnight from a surplus to a $25B deficit
“And now he's gone from a massive surplus to a twenty five billion dollar deficit overnight, which we talked about even a year ago, because that was just the law of numbers catching up with the state of California.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 13, 2023 ▶ 25:34 E111: Microsoft to invest $10B in OpenAI, generative AI hype, America's over-classification problem
Jul 9, 2023 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: California's unauthorized immigrant population fell 10% from 2010 to 2018
“From 20 10 to 20 18, the unauthorized immigrant population in the state declined by 10%. To 2.6 million”
David Friedberg Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 1:08:57 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Dec 1, 2023 negative
Opinion
Carlson: California is the most corrupt state in the US
“It's a machine state. It's the most corrupt out of 50.”
Tucker Carlson Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 1:07:39 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
Jan 6, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks notes California budget swung from $76B surplus to $68B deficit
“Because specifically, California went from having a seventy-six billion dollar surplus in twenty-twenty-two to a sixty-eight billion dollar deficit now.”
David Sacks Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 13:51 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Jan 26, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: ArcStorm 2.0 model projects $1T+ in California flood damages
“The most recent model called ArcStorm two point oh, which was an analysis done By the USGS showed that if this sort of an event were to occur again, would drive over a trillion dollars in damages in California.”
David Friedberg Jan 26, 2024 ▶ 1:28:11 E163: Market rips, Media RIFs, Texas defies Biden, Fintech reckoning, ARkStorm 2.0 & more
Jan 26, 2024
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Ocean warming reduces California mega-flood intervals to 25–50 years
“These sorts of events are predicted historically to happen every 150 to 200 years, but based on the warm temperature in the oceans we see, it's now predicted that these will happen every, call it 25 to 50 years or much sooner.”
David Friedberg Jan 26, 2024 ▶ 1:27:55 E163: Market rips, Media RIFs, Texas defies Biden, Fintech reckoning, ARkStorm 2.0 & more
Apr 12, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: California ballot measure lowered theft under $950 to misdemeanor
“You also had this referendum in California that Essentially lowered a whole bunch of felonies to misdemeanors. Basically, if you steal less than 950 dollars, that's considered a misdemeanor now instead of a felony.”
David Sacks Apr 12, 2024 ▶ 10:08 E174: Inflation stays hot, AI disclosure bill, Drone warfare, defense startups & more
Apr 26, 2024 positive
Insight
Sachs: Banning non-competes drives tech industry speed and innovation
“I think one of the reasons why the tech industry moves so fast and innovates so well is because of the happy coincidence that California doesn't allow non-competes, and so the industry's never had them. And as a result of that, like you're saying, the talent j…”
David Sacks Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 54:25 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
Sep 12, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
San Francisco Threatened Kalanick With 90 Days in Jail Per Uber Ride
“I got threatened by the city of San Francisco and the state of California three months after we launched Uber with 90 days in jail for every ride that had occurred.”
Travis Kalanick Sep 12, 2024 ▶ 18:32 Travis Kalanick | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 16, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sachs: California tech benefited from China's rise more than anywhere else
“This economy has been the biggest beneficiary of China's rise probably in the whole world.”
Jeffrey Sachs Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 22:19 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sachs: A conflict with China would destroy California's tech economy
“Yeah, it would wreck California for one thing. It would destroy the economy that you guys are making completely.”
Jeffrey Sachs Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 22:13 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Oct 18, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: California signed a law making it illegal to demand voter ID
“In California, like you said, we now have a new law signed by Gavin Newsom to make it illegal to ask for voter ID.”
David Sacks Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 14:31 Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Nov 6, 2024 bullish
What-if
Gingrich: Resources in CA, IL, NY would guarantee Trump popular vote
“If we were to actually put real resources into those three states, Trump would be virtually guaranteed to win the popular vote.”
Newt Gingrich Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 1:27:31 2024 Election Night Livestream with the Besties!
Nov 8, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Democratic margins shrank sharply in California and New York in 2024
“I think in 2020, they won California by 29 points. It was barely half is what they won by this year. In New York, it shrunk to a 12 point margin.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 11:28 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2032
Chamath: Democrats will lose California or New York within eight years
“I completely agree with you, and I'll go even further, which is, I think that the Democrats will lose one of California or New York in the next eight years.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 27:14 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 23, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Cutting California regulations and taxes to near zero creates a renaissance
“I think that the person that runs for governor in California should commit to cutting those 65,000 regulations down to 10,000 as needed, to replacing the DMV with a digital app, and to cut taxes to near zero, and to create school choice. Whoever does that will…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 23, 2024 ▶ 46:20 DOGE unveils a roadmap, Unlocking GDP Growth, WW3 escalation, Fat cell memory
Nov 23, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: California regulatory burden grew almost 50% from 1997 to 2015
“The regulatory burden in California as a state From 1997 to 20 15, this is when the data is available that I found, has increased by almost 50%.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 23, 2024 ▶ 16:17 DOGE unveils a roadmap, Unlocking GDP Growth, WW3 escalation, Fat cell memory
Nov 23, 2024 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Backs Nicole Shanahan for a potential California gubernatorial run
“Well, you know, there, there's a lot of scuttlebutt online that Nicole Shanahan is going to run for governor of California. And I'd be all in favor of that.”
David Sacks Nov 23, 2024 ▶ 46:49 DOGE unveils a roadmap, Unlocking GDP Growth, WW3 escalation, Fat cell memory
Nov 23, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Chamath: California had almost 61,000 regulations as of May 2022
“As of May of 2022, There are almost 61,000 individual regulations in the state of California.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 23, 2024 ▶ 16:30 DOGE unveils a roadmap, Unlocking GDP Growth, WW3 escalation, Fat cell memory
Jan 11, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bannister: California bans insurers from using forward-looking weather models for pricing
“So you're not allowed to use a weather model To price in, you know, your decision making for insurance in the state.”
Cyan Banister Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 45:14 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jan 11, 2025
Assertion Supported
Chamath: California annual timber harvest fell from 6B to 1.5B board feet
“In the 19 fifties, the average amount of timber, so wood that was harvested in California was around six billion board feet per year. In the intervening 70 years, that shrank to about 1.5 billion board feet.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 16:28 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jan 11, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: California will seek federal bailout for wildfire insurance liabilities
“I think that the liabilities of the insurance claims are going to be so massive that the state's going to look to the federal government to bill them out.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 43:00 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jan 18, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Chamath Palihapitiya: $750B across 1.26 million California homes faces wildfire risk
“In California, it's three quarters of a trillion dollars that are at about 1.26 million homes. That are at moderate or great risk of fires.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 50:37 Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs
Jan 18, 2025
Assertion Supported
Chamath Palihapitiya: California rebuilt Interstate 10 in 66 days after 1994 earthquake
“After the 1994 Northridge earthquake, They rebuilt I-TEN, right? Which is like, that is like a crazy artery, in 66 days.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 46:07 Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs
Jan 18, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
David Friedberg: California paid a $200,000 daily bonus to rebuild I-10
“They offered a 200,000 dollar per day early build bonus on that program back then. So they basically, the state declared, we need this freeway reopened, and here's the date. It was like a 144 days, and they're like, you'll get a 200,000 dollar bonus for every …”
David Friedberg Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 47:16 Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs
Jan 19, 2025 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Calacanis: Texas home prices fall while NY and CA rise 10-20%
“Having lived in New York and grown up there now, and then done 20 years in California now, my second year in Texas, or starting my second year it's amazing to me that you're allowed to build things in Texas, like homes or factories, and the price of homes has …”
Jason Calacanis Jan 19, 2025 ▶ 2:11 Ted Cruz: Trump's First Week, Texas vs. California, Immigration, DOGE, Greenland
Jan 19, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Chamath: California is falling apart despite its $322 billion state budget
“States like California, which has, you know, a three hundred and twenty-two billion dollar budget, is just completely falling apart.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 19, 2025 ▶ 7:11 Ted Cruz: Trump's First Week, Texas vs. California, Immigration, DOGE, Greenland
Jan 19, 2025
Assertion Supported
Cruz: California had the most undocumented immigrants of any state in 1988
“The highest concentration of illegal immigrants was in California, in 1988.”
Senator Ted Cruz Jan 19, 2025 ▶ 5:44 Ted Cruz: Trump's First Week, Texas vs. California, Immigration, DOGE, Greenland
Jan 19, 2025 negative
Opinion
Cruz: The 1987 amnesty law fundamentally shifted California's voting composition
“And so I think the amnesty law played a significant part, the federal law changing the voting composition of the state.”
Senator Ted Cruz Jan 19, 2025 ▶ 6:09 Ted Cruz: Trump's First Week, Texas vs. California, Immigration, DOGE, Greenland
Jan 19, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Reversing California's progressive policies will take up to two decades
“It feels to me like Californians have had enough, and it's just going to take a decade or two to unwind it.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 19, 2025 ▶ 10:20 Ted Cruz: Trump's First Week, Texas vs. California, Immigration, DOGE, Greenland
Jan 19, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cruz: California is the largest source of net migration to Texas
“And the biggest state folks come from is California.”
Senator Ted Cruz Jan 19, 2025 ▶ 8:45 Ted Cruz: Trump's First Week, Texas vs. California, Immigration, DOGE, Greenland
Jan 20, 2025 neutral
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: Expect a federal preemption challenge against California's EV mandate
“Well, this is where there'll be a federal preemption challenge, I think, of California.”
David Friedberg Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 2:14:51 All-In Inauguration Day Livestream with the Besties from Washington, DC!
Jan 31, 2025 bearish
Assertion Contradicted
Travis Kalanick says all-EV ride-sharing would require doubling California's energy capacity
“If all of the miles in California went EV ride sharing, you would need to double the energy capacity of California.”
Travis Kalanick Jan 31, 2025 ▶ 1:28:21 DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Mar 15, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
Palihapitiya: Gavin Newsom's popularity has risen after starting a podcast
“By the way, his popularity has gone up, which is insane, which after the fires and all of the ineptitude in California, all of the corporations that have run away, all of the people that have left, the chaos in San Francisco, after all of that, he started a po…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 15, 2025 ▶ 13:20 Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Mar 19, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Bessent considers federal backstop for California insurance tied to safety mandates
“So is there something we could do where you put another layer of private money in there, and then the federal government is the fifth risk. Traunch. But if the federal government comes in, can we mandate down here proper hygiene?”
Scott Bessent Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 1:07:41 The Shocking Truth About DC Spending & Corruption - Scott Bessent
Apr 3, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bryan Johnson: Gerber IP-blocks heavy metal test results outside California
“Yeah, I think the four, four big. And so it's like, okay, so go to Gerber's website, I can't find heavy metals results anywhere. And then I realized my VPN's on, and I'm coming from a server outside of California, they've IP blocked.”
Bryan Johnson Apr 3, 2025 ▶ 1:41:43 All-In Live from Austin: Colin and Samir, Chris Williamson, and Bryan Johnson
Apr 4, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gracias: 1980s amnesty turned California into a solidly blue state
“Ronald Reagan signed amnesty, and you know, some, four years later, it is now a solidly blue state, and I think some of us on this program, I know you, Jason, are a refugee from California because of that, because of some of those policies, and I want to be, I…”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 36:44 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 11, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Klein: Subsidized housing in California costs 4.4x Texas rates
“And the cost of creating housing in California market rate is two X in California, what it is in Texas. But when you get into that publicly subsidized housing, where you have all these new standards and rules and regulations being triggered by the addition of …”
Ezra Klein Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 1:21:43 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
May 6, 2025 positive
What-if
Arizona and California agriculture relies entirely on the Bureau of Reclamation
“We wouldn't have agriculture in Arizona or California without that.”
Doug Burgum May 6, 2025 ▶ 10:07 Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior | All-In DC
Jun 13, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Carlson: Mass immigration turned California into a slum
“But fundamentally the state is a slum. It's a Latin American country, and immigration did that.”
Tucker Carlson Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 33:22 Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?
Jun 13, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tucker Carlson: Drug cartels are involved in LA riots and control California
“I do think the drug cartels are involved, flexing their authority in California. They have a lot of control in California, as I'm sure you know.”
Tucker Carlson Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 8:18 Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?
Jun 21, 2025 bearish
Disclosure
Chamath: Beast Games production will avoid filming in California unless forced
“We would not film in Los Angeles. Unless we absolutely had to. We will stay as far away from California as possible.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 5:28 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jul 4, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: PG&E's California grid is only 45% to 50% utilized on average
“In California, our grid is on average about between 45 and 50% utilized. This is for PG&E.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 24:32 Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
Oct 1, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: California legalized ballot harvesting and outlawed voter ID checks
“The thing I worry about is in California, you've got ballot harvesting is legal, and checking someone's voter ID is illegal.”
David Sacks Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 13:15 Rick Caruso on California’s Collapse: Broken Leadership, LA Wildfire Failures & the Fix
Oct 1, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Caruso says he may run for public office in California again
“Well, you know, it may, David, but I may give that a try.”
Rick Caruso Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 13:34 Rick Caruso on California’s Collapse: Broken Leadership, LA Wildfire Failures & the Fix
Oct 21, 2025 positive
Opinion
Sramek: California is irreplaceable despite its flaws
“Despite all of its flaws and challenges, California is irreplaceable. Whether you like it or not, there is nowhere else in America that can play the role that California plays, ah, in the United States right now.”
Jan Sramek Oct 21, 2025 ▶ 1:15 California Forever: The Startup Building America's Next Great City
Oct 24, 2025 negative
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030
Friedberg predicts California will pass Proposition 55 progressive tax extension
“They're already trying to extend Prop. 55, which is the progressive tax for people making over a million dollars. They're going to get that passed.”
David Friedberg Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 3:44 NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
Oct 24, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks notes California and Illinois have adopted algorithmic discrimination regulatory frameworks
“Now in California, the civil rights agency that deals with housing has now embraced algorithmic discrimination and Illinois has also embraced it.”
David Sacks Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 1:08:13 NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
Nov 7, 2025
Assertion Supported
Sacks: CA, NY, CO, and IL drive 25% of state AI bills
“25% of the bills going through state legislatures are in four states. California, New York, Colorado, and Illinois.”
David Sacks Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 20:28 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
Dec 19, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Californians will look back on Gavin Newsom as a moderate
“You guys are gonna look back on Gavin and realize he was the most upstanding, moderate governor that California had in modern era”
David Friedberg Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 1:27:22 Bernie Sanders Says Stop All AI, China's Breakthrough, Inflation Down, Golden Age in 2026?
Dec 24, 2025 negative
What-if
Hinchcliffe: Kill Tony would still be in LA without California's pandemic mismanagement
“We would still be in LA if the, if California didn't completely mishandle the pandemic and let police take such a terrible hit during the George Floyd riots.”
Tony Hinchcliffe Dec 24, 2025 ▶ 28:08 All-In x Kill Tony: A Hilarious Holiday Special
Dec 24, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Hinchcliffe: California has more homeless people than any other state
“California, more homeless people than any other state.”
Tony Hinchcliffe Dec 24, 2025 ▶ 4:31 All-In x Kill Tony: A Hilarious Holiday Special
Dec 31, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: California loses $100B per year to pilfering and fraud
“It's probably a hundred billion dollars a year that's being just completely pilfered out of California.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 31, 2025 ▶ 32:02 Massive Somali Fraud in Minnesota with Nick Shirley, California Asset Seizure, $20B Groq-Nvidia Deal
Dec 31, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: California has 200 billionaires holding $2 trillion in net worth
“In the state of California, these billionaires, there's 200 of them. The total net worth of billionaires in the state of California is two trillion dollars.”
David Friedberg Dec 31, 2025 ▶ 1:17:30 Massive Somali Fraud in Minnesota with Nick Shirley, California Asset Seizure, $20B Groq-Nvidia Deal
Dec 31, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: State wealth taxes will inevitably expand to target non-billionaires
“It establishes a precedent that we can define an arbitrary group of people And confiscate a bunch of their property because they're politically unpopular. And if it succeeds here, it will be replicated over and over and over again. And obviously the line will …”
David Sacks Dec 31, 2025 ▶ 1:20:10 Massive Somali Fraud in Minnesota with Nick Shirley, California Asset Seizure, $20B Groq-Nvidia Deal
Jan 10, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: California will be the biggest business loser of 2026
“For me, we already talked about this, but it was California because of the wealth tax and also the onerous regulations driving business and capital out of the state.”
David Sacks Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 44:58 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Jan 10, 2026 negative
Disclosure
Sacks: Persistent threat of wealth tax pushed him to leave California
“I think a lot of people expect that some version this comes back in 2028, which is the thing that kind of pushed me over the edge in terms of leaving is I don't think this bomb is going away.”
David Sacks Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 5:02 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Jan 10, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: California wealth tax will cause flight of half its taxable wealth
“I think a lot of other people will leave. It's probably half the total wealth that the budget estimated would be available to be taxed will be gone.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 4:02 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Jan 10, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks predicts a rush for exits if California wealth tax reaches ballot
“If it gets on the ballot, You know, again, we'll know in just a few months, there's going to be a huge freak out. And I think there'll be a lot of people who will say, I can't take the risk. They're going to leave the state. So I think there's going to be a ru…”
David Sacks Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 4:36 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Jan 13, 2026 negative
Opinion
Carolla blames California overregulation on "gyno-fascism" and female leaders
“This is, what I'm starting to learn is basically what people are calling gyno-fascism, which is way too many women in positions of power with an eye on safety.”
Adam Carolla Jan 13, 2026 ▶ 8:38 Adam Carolla on California’s Collapse: Fires, Failed Leadership, and Gyno-Fascism
Jan 13, 2026 negative
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Carolla predicts proposed wealth taxes will increase California outward migration
“Yes, it's definitely going to drive migration up”
Adam Carolla Jan 13, 2026 ▶ 46:02 Adam Carolla on California’s Collapse: Fires, Failed Leadership, and Gyno-Fascism
Jan 15, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Makary: One in 12 boys in California is now diagnosed with autism
“One in 12 boys in California now being diagnosed with autism.”
Dr. Marty Makary Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 1:19:23 Supercharging a New FDA: Marty Makary on Science, Power & Patients
Jan 17, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: California faces $30B annual deficit and $1T in unfunded pensions
“In California we're looking at a thirty billion a year deficit, we've got five hundred billion of debt, and we have a nearly one trillion dollar pension obligation that is not funded.”
David Friedberg Jan 17, 2026 ▶ 41:00 Iran's Breaking Point, Trump's Greenland Acquisition, and Solving Energy Costs
Jan 17, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: California collects double the tax revenue of Texas and Florida
“California collects roughly double per capita what Texas and Florida do. So California collects about 10,319 dollars per taxpayer, whereas Texas 5469, Florida 4914.”
David Sacks Jan 17, 2026 ▶ 52:43 Iran's Breaking Point, Trump's Greenland Acquisition, and Solving Energy Costs
Jan 17, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: California's budget doubled over the past decade while population stayed flat
“The California budget has doubled over the past decade while the population stayed flat”
David Sacks Jan 17, 2026 ▶ 53:05 Iran's Breaking Point, Trump's Greenland Acquisition, and Solving Energy Costs
Jan 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Armstrong estimates 20% of California billionaires left, creating $10B tax deficit
“My estimates would probably be 20% of the billionaires have already left in California, that it's already created a negative ten billion tax hole, even if, even with the amount that they hope to raise from the people who stay.”
Brian Armstrong Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 24:33 Coinbase CEO's Top 3 Crypto Trends for 2026 + More from Davos!
Jan 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: California budget rose dramatically over 10 years while services worsened
“The history of the last 10 years in California is that the budget has gone up dramatically and the services have gotten worse.”
Brian Armstrong Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 27:09 Coinbase CEO's Top 3 Crypto Trends for 2026 + More from Davos!
Jan 24, 2026
Assertion Supported
Sacks: California's $350B budget has doubled over the last decade
“California, the budget's three hundred fifty billion dollars, by far the biggest. It has doubled in the last decade.”
David Sacks Jan 24, 2026 ▶ 45:31 Dr. Mehmet Oz on Fixing American Healthcare + Fraud | Live from Davos
Jan 24, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Dr. Oz: California hospice providers increased sevenfold in under seven years
“We have seven times more hospice in California. Hospice is for people at the end of their life. Seven times more hospice than was there five, six, seven years ago.”
Dr. Mehmet Oz Jan 24, 2026 ▶ 39:45 Dr. Mehmet Oz on Fixing American Healthcare + Fraud | Live from Davos
Jan 24, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Dr. Oz: Fraudulent California hospice centers report a 100% survival rate
“The survival rate for most of these hospice centers is a hundred percent.”
Dr. Mehmet Oz Jan 24, 2026 ▶ 40:01 Dr. Mehmet Oz on Fixing American Healthcare + Fraud | Live from Davos
Jan 24, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Dr. Oz: California undocumented immigrants receive coverage unavailable under Medicare
“If you're on Medicare, you don't get free dental, you don't get free vision. You do if you're an illegal immigrant in California.”
Dr. Mehmet Oz Jan 24, 2026 ▶ 54:46 Dr. Mehmet Oz on Fixing American Healthcare + Fraud | Live from Davos
Jan 24, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Dr. Oz: Audit reveals California improperly billed $1.5B for undocumented immigrant healthcare
“We've audited him now. This data's coming out this week. We have now found over one and a half billion dollars of money spent wrongly. We've audited it. They're not even arguing. One and a half billion dollars from that California charged the federal governmen…”
Dr. Mehmet Oz Jan 24, 2026 ▶ 55:44 Dr. Mehmet Oz on Fixing American Healthcare + Fraud | Live from Davos
Jan 31, 2026 negative
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Friedberg: California faces a trillion-dollar pension fiscal cliff
“California has a trillion dollar fiscal cliff coming up because of the pension obligations.”
David Friedberg Jan 31, 2026 ▶ 1:25:37 ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
Jan 31, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Top two California governor candidates are trending Republican
“Current course and speed, the top two vote getters are trending to be both Republican candidates.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 31, 2026 ▶ 1:21:17 ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
Jan 31, 2026 neutral
Insight
Friedberg: Only constitutional amendment or state bankruptcy can save California
“So fundamentally and functionally, there are two ways that California can be saved. Number one, you pass an amendment to the Constitution to fix this pension liability problem. And number two is the state has the ability to declare bankruptcy.”
David Friedberg Jan 31, 2026 ▶ 1:26:19 ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
Jan 31, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Sachs: Texas and Florida collect half California's per-capita tax without income tax
“Texas and Florida Do a better job for their population, collecting half as much in taxes per capita as California does and having no income tax or capital gains tax.”
David Sacks Jan 31, 2026 ▶ 1:19:44 ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
Feb 13, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: California faces nearly $1T in unfunded public pension liabilities
“California has nearly a trillion dollars of unfunded pension obligations to its public retirees or public employees that are going to retire.”
David Friedberg Feb 13, 2026 ▶ 35:51 Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV
Mar 13, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Hoover simulation shows California billionaire tax creates $25B deficit
“The Hoover Institution basically ran this Monte Carlo simulation. They ran a 100,000 runs, and in 71% of those runs, it comes out with a negative NPV, and if you expected value it out, It's about a twenty five billion dollar hole.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 1:11:29 Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
Mar 13, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Washington tax impact will equal or exceed California's in 18-24 months
“So I suspect when you look back on this in 18 or 24 months, it'll be as bad or worse than California.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 1:12:36 Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
Mar 17, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Dozens of startup CEOs want to leave California
“There are literally dozens of startup CEOs of call it successful or growing companies that I talked to who were like, dude, I want to leave, but I got employees here.”
David Friedberg Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 18:27 Two Legendary Founders: Travis Kalanick & Michael Dell Live from Austin, Texas
Mar 17, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Tech group raising $500M for California political coalition
“So there's a group of people trying to raise five hundred million dollars to create like a tech slash business coalition to go to Sacramento, which arguably is something that everyone's left and avoided doing forever because no one wants to spend time in freak…”
David Friedberg Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 22:13 Two Legendary Founders: Travis Kalanick & Michael Dell Live from Austin, Texas
Mar 23, 2026 positive
Opinion
Mahan: California must adopt zero-based budgeting to curb state spending
“It's time for California to go through an exercise of zero-based budgeting and say, what are the outcomes we need, and are we actually spending dollars to achieve those outcomes, or are we just funding a sprawling, bloated bureaucracy”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 50:04 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Mahan: California employee headcount grew over 20% despite flat state population
“The state's population has stayed flat over the last six years. Spending is up 75%, as you point out, and headcount in state employees is up, I believe, over 20%.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 49:42 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: California has suffered over $1 trillion in capital flight
“We've seen over a trillion dollars of capital flight.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 56:12 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Opinion
Matt Mahan: State-run single-payer healthcare is not realistic for California
“I don't think it's realistic for California to create a single state-run free healthcare for all system.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 52:49 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Disclosure
Mahan promises to veto more legislative bills if elected governor
“Yeah, and I would, just to be clear, as governor, veto even more of these bills”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 7:52 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: San Jose led California in crime reduction and is the safest big U.S. city
“We have led the state in reducing crime and become the safest big city in the country.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 6:30 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Opinion
Mahan: California spends more state money for diminishing public returns
“I'm frustrated with a state that keeps spending more and seemingly getting less, which is why I jumped in.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 0:13 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Opinion
Mahan: California's housing issue is fundamentally a regulation crisis
“I think that's fair. I think regulation, Bureaucracy. A set of codes and laws that don't work for people and work for the special interests in Sacramento.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 22:02 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: Texas power is cheaper and cleaner than California energy
“Texas is providing dramatically cheaper power that is cleaner than California.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 35:52 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan was the first California Democratic mayor to endorse Proposition 36
“With Prop. 36, I was the first Democratic mayor in the state to come out in support of Prop. 36.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 34:13 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mahan: State investment in vegetation management will lower insurance premiums long-term
“As governor, I would create a task force that just focuses on fixing the insurance market, and if the state will invest in vegetation management to reduce the risk of catastrophic loss, you're gonna see premiums go down over the long term.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 42:14 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Mahan: California spends $8 on fire response for every $1 on prevention
“We spend eight dollars in fire response and recovery for every one dollar we spend on prevention”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 41:32 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: California fraudulent pandemic unemployment claims exceeded $30 billion
“During the last five years or so, roughly during the pandemic, unemployment claims in California that were fraudulent totaled over thirty billion dollars.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 5:20 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: San Jose added 2,000 shelter beds and led California in reducing unsheltered homelessness
“We've added over 2000 shelter beds in my first three years as mayor, and led the state in reducing unsheltered homelessness”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 18:02 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: California state regulations drove out most oil refineries over ten years
“The state has lost most of its refineries over the last decade because we have intentionally regulated them out of existence.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 36:22 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Mahan: Defect liability laws prevent California from building condos
“We're not building condos in California, partly because construction defect liability allows a trial lawyer to come in in year nine of a project And if they see that the paint is starting to bubble, they'll file a suit, and they care about the fees.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 20:09 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Mahan: Over 40% of America's unsheltered homeless live in California
“And yet we lead the nation in unsheltered homelessness over 40% of the people living outside in tents in the entire country live in California, which is only about 12% of the country's population.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 31:10 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mahan: California is approaching an irreversible point of no return
“I think the state is heading toward an inflection point past which there may be no return.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 1:59 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Mahan: Mississippi and Louisiana beat California in reading proficiency for low-income kids
“Mississippi and Louisiana are doing a better job of helping low-income kids get on grade level for reading than we are in the very well-resourced, very progressive state of California.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 14:26 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Mahan: California sometimes pays Arizona to take excess solar power
“Power is so cheap and abundant in California that we sometimes pay Arizona to take our excess solar”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 37:13 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Mahan promises to protect law-abiding undocumented residents as governor
“I will absolutely stand up to protect undocumented residents who are playing by the rules, who are doing the most American thing, and I get all the arguments around lawful immigration.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 1:10:40 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
What-if
Mahan: Federal wildfire aid would have flowed without California-DC political fighting
“They're not getting the help that they need, and part of the reason they're not getting the help that they need is this hyper-partisanship in which California and Washington are fighting rhetorically and politically, and the people who are being hurt are the f…”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 1:08:26 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: 50,000 people died on California streets over past decade
“Over the last decade, we've had 50,000 people die on our streets in California about Half from overdose and suicide.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 17:23 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: One-time municipal fees can add 20% to housing project costs
“When it comes to housing, just to slightly switch topics, the fees that cities can assess, one-time fees can add 20% to the cost of a project.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 3:20 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Mahan: Non-residents can file lawsuits under California's CEQA environmental law
“Anybody can sue under CEQA. You don't even have to be a resident of California to sue under CEQA.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 3:16 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mahan: California will see MAGA-like movement if Democrats fail to deliver
“If the Democratic Party doesn't start to wake up and be more responsive to the needs of our constituents and deliver with the resources we've got, we're gonna see the pendulum swing all the way the other way, and you're going to see a MAGA-like movement happen…”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 15:43 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Apr 29, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Hilton: Mississippi beats CA school results at one-third per-student spend
“A lot of attention now on Mississippi, rightly so, because for one third of their spend per student than California, their results are spectacularly better.”
Steve Hilton Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 48:12 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Apr 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Hilton: California has the highest unemployment and poverty rates in the US
“We're the state with the highest unemployment rate in the country and the highest poverty rate in the country tied with Louisiana.”
Steve Hilton Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 9:31 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Apr 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: California still has the worst air quality in the US
“California still has the worst air quality in the country, largely because of the addiction to cars and traffic.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 37:10 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Apr 29, 2026 negative
Opinion
Hilton compares current California conditions to 1970s United Kingdom
“There are so many things I see in California today that are exactly like the UK in the seventies. You've got the massive dominance of the unions in policymaking. You've got a slurotic economy. You've got massively high taxation.”
Steve Hilton Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 7:19 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Apr 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Hilton: Building housing in California costs 2-3x more than neighboring states
“The same exact floor plan, house, apartment building, industrial building, whatever it is, costs two or three times more to build. In other, in, in California than in neighboring states.”
Steve Hilton Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 29:52 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Apr 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: California violent crime rate is 30% above national average
“California, still 30% more violent Then the rest of the country.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 50:26 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Apr 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Hilton: Iraq is California's top provider of imported oil
“Our number one provider is Iraq right now. That's the number one source of oil.”
Steve Hilton Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 39:23 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Apr 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Hilton: California spends $27K per student while most fail basic standards
“We spend nearly the most of any state per student right now in this year. It's about 27,000, just, it's more than, just over 27,000 per student per year. In California, if you take the average out of the money, and we get some of the worst results in the count…”
Steve Hilton Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 45:45 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Apr 29, 2026
Assertion Supported
Hilton: Katie Porter publicly adopted his plan for zero tax under $100K
“One of my Democrat opponents in the governor's race, Katie Porter. Actually, you know, we were doing a debate the other week in Fresno, and she just said, we're talking about affordability or whatever it was, and she said, well, I'm, I've decided I'm stealing …”
Steve Hilton Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 21:27 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Apr 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Hilton: California state budget has nearly doubled over the past decade
“If you look at the budget of the state of California, it's nearly doubled In the last 10 years.”
Steve Hilton Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 13:16 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Apr 29, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Hilton proposes assigning grades to every California school and teacher
“And that's one of the proposals I've got in my campaign, which is a grade for every school and a grade for every teacher. So we can reward the good ones and remove the bad ones.”
Steve Hilton Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 49:53 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Apr 29, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Hilton: EV penetration in California is only about 4% to 5%
“If you look at EVs, I mean, EV penetration, even with all the subsidies and so on, it's incredibly low in California. So you can't point, it's about four or five percent, something like that.”
Steve Hilton Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 44:34 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Apr 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Hilton: Chief Executive magazine ranked California last in business climate for 10 years
“Chief executive magazine ranks us and has done for the last 10 years or so the 50th out of 50 for business climate.”
Steve Hilton Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 12:04 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Apr 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Hilton: California oil refineries dropped from about 40 to seven
“We had a really strong energy industry and infrastructure in California where we produced most of the oil and gas that we use, and we had refineries, about 40 of them around the state, mostly in the Bay Area, down in LA, that refined and turned it into product…”
Steve Hilton Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 39:59 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Apr 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Hilton: California has top gas prices, housing costs, and second-highest electric bills
“We have the highest gas prices in the country, as you know, the highest electric bills everywhere except for Hawaii housing costs the highest in the country”
Steve Hilton Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 10:20 CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
May 8, 2026 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Gerstner predicts California's Retirement Protection and Savings Act will pass
“And then the, you know, the ballot initiative, the Retirement Protection and Savings Act, right, it's going to pass with big numbers.”
Brad Gerstner May 8, 2026 ▶ 3:00 Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
May 10, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Pratt: 60% of LAFD firefighters fly in from outside California
“60% of these guys fly in”
Spencer Pratt May 10, 2026 ▶ 49:33 Spencer Pratt on Fixing LA: Wildfires, Homelessness, Corruption & the Fight to Take It Back
Jun 13, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Steve Hilton could declare a state of emergency on day one
“And if that happens, there is one thing that Steve Hilton can do to start to completely change the way that this state is run, which is instantly on day one, declare a state of emergency.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 1:27:34 Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections
Jun 13, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Gavin Newsom signed a bill making California election audits virtually impossible
“Gavin Newsom just signed a law making it virtually impossible to audit any of this stuff.”
David Sacks Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 1:21:51 Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections
Jun 13, 2026 negative
Opinion
Chamath: California is an autocracy controlled by one political machine
“We live in a autocracy in California where one political machine has shaped the laws so inexorably that whether it's a mayor or it's a state legislator or it's a state senator or it's the governor, it's a one-way door.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 1:24:59 Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections
Jun 13, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: California AB 1921 legalized unlimited ballot harvesting
“California Assembly Bill 1921 legalized the practice of unlimited ballot harvesting in the state.”
David Friedberg Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 1:15:40 Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections
Jun 13, 2026 negative
Opinion
Friedberg: California's voting laws are a foundational destruction of democratic rights
“This is a foundational destruction of our rights to vote for people in a free democracy.”
David Friedberg Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 1:17:04 Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections
Jun 13, 2026 negative
Opinion
Friedberg: California election system allows candidates to be appointed, not elected
“It has been set up and structured in a way that with the right construct, you can get an individual appointed, not elected, but appointed to a particular role in government under a, quote, free election in California.”
David Friedberg Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 1:16:51 Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections
Jun 13, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: California has billions in proven state program fraud across Medicaid and unemployment
“We know That there's billions of dollars in fraud in California for things like Medicaid fraud, unemployment fraud, EBT fraud, hospice fraud, fraud related to the homeless industrial complex, and on and on. That's all been proven, ok?”
David Sacks Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 1:22:04 Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections
Jun 29, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nate Silver: California's official vote count accurately reflects ballots cast
“I think the California vote count is an accurate tally of the votes that were cast.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 14:28 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
Jul 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: California spends $9k per resident versus $5k in Texas and Florida
“If you just look at the budget per person places like Texas and Florida spend about 5000 dollars per citizen on services, you know, if you divide the budget by the population, and then you look at New York City, it's close to 13,000 dollars, and you look at Ca…”
Jason Calacanis Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 1:34:55 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 3, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Calacanis: California tax rates will reach 60% to 65% for top earners
“I guarantee you, Friedberg and Chamath, you will be paying 60 to 65% tax if you stay in California”
Jason Calacanis Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 1:36:22 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 3, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2036
Chamath: California will face bankruptcy and debt restructuring within 10 years
“Then we're gonna deal with a California bankruptcy in the next 10 years, and it is unfortunately, no, and it will unfortunately result in a complete restructuring of those debt obligations.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 1:34:38 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 3, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: At least 15 Fortune 500 companies left California since 2019
“Since 2019, at least 15 Fortune 500 companies have moved out of California, moved their headquarters out, not to mention all the local franchises and everything that moved out. 2100 companies that are mid or large size have moved out of California since 2019.”
David Friedberg Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 1:24:30 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 3, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: California's state budget grew 65% from 2019 to $355B
“California's state budget ballooned from two hundred and fifteen billion a year in 2019, six years ago, to three hundred and fifty five billion today, so a 65% jump in the state budget.”
David Friedberg Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 1:22:21 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 3, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: California's billionaire tax will trigger a decade of legal losses
“You're gonna have two or 300 individual lawsuits that will take a decade to meander through the courts, and ultimately I think a lot of people have standing here, and I just wonder what will they have proven at that point, because it'll be a decade later, it'l…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 1:32:57 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 3, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sachs: California will get bluer rather than experience a red wave
“Look, this idea that somehow things get bad enough where you get a red wave in super blue California. And everything gets magically fixed. Not gonna happen. What's gonna happen is a blue state's gonna get bluer.”
David Sacks Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 1:34:16 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 11, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: US faces a three-California energy deficit by 2050 without AI
“If you just look at the load growth that's expected between now and 20 50. We are about three entire California's worth of energy short. And that's just assuming regular consumption of devices and cars, fridges, televisions and computers. So we are, we have a,…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 1:02:06 OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
Jul 18, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Anthropic already won AI regulation battles in California, Illinois, and New York
“They've won in a bunch of states. They already won in California and Illinois and New York, and I mean, they're winning in all the blue states and maybe even some red states.”
David Sacks Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 18:32 Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters
Jul 18, 2026
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
Palihapitiya: US energy deficit will equal 2.5 Californias by 2050
“By 20 50, the United States of America will be two and a half California's worth of energy in deficit.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 56:45 Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters
Jul 30, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
Chamath: US electricity deficit will reach 1.7 TWh by 2050
“We will be 1.7 terawatt hours short by 20 50, which is when you calculate it as energy. It is six X of California's entire energy consumption. Six California's short of energy.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 33:25 Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
Aug 18, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Langley: California recorded 7,000 state database abuses last year
“And you look at like California, you know, there was 7000 reported abuses of their state database last year.”
Garrett Langley Aug 18, 2026 ▶ 24:49 Mass Surveillance, Police Misuse, and Who Controls Your Flock Cameras with Flock CEO, Garret Langley
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