annual recurring revenue

also referred to as: arr

7 statements across 7 episodes · 4 bullish · 0 bearish · 3 people on the record · first statement Mar 26, 2022 by David Sacks · across every show →

Everything said about annual recurring revenue, oldest first

Mar 26, 2022
Insight
Sacks: A startup burn multiple above 3 is bad
“If you can spend a dollar or less to generate an Incremental dollar of ARR. You're doing amazing. And between one and two is good. So in other words, if you're burning twenty million in a year to add an incremental ten million of ARR, you're doing quite well i…”
David Sacks Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 41:39 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
Sep 17, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks predicts Figma will reach $1.5B to $2B ARR within 3.5 years
“They're going to be, you know, at somewhere between one and a half and two billion of ARR.”
David Sacks Sep 17, 2022 ▶ 7:33 E96: Adobe acquires Figma for $20B, TPB SPAC, FedEx CEO's recession warning, macro picture & more
Dec 8, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: PE buyers pay 1x-5x ARR for software companies
“And what I would tell you is that even for companies that are in the hundreds of millions of ARR, the premiums that they're willing to pay are between three and five times ARR at the high end. And that a lot of deals get transacted between one and three times …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 8, 2023 ▶ 42:11 E156: Ivy League antisemitism, macro, SaaS recovery, Gemini, Figma deal delay + big Friedberg update
Apr 24, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Public SaaS companies with $1B ARR trade at 3x revenue
“We're seeing public SaaS companies that are doing a billion of ARR with 20% growth rates, 80% gross margins, and they're trading at three times ARR.”
David Sacks Apr 24, 2026 ▶ 28:41 SpaceX-Cursor Deal, SaaS Debt Bomb, New Apple CEO, SPLC Indictment, Colon Cancer Spike
May 8, 2026 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Anthropic ARR reached $44 billion in April 2026
“First, we find out that from January first to March 31st, they grew from Roughly ten billion of ARR to thirty billion, so it tripled. And then in April, if anything, the rate of increase seemed to accelerate. They went from 30 to forty-four billion of ARR.”
David Sacks May 8, 2026 ▶ 14:34 Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
May 22, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Total LLM ARR could reach $200B-$400B by end of year
“It's not hard to see 203 104 hundred billion dollars of ARR at the end of this year at a high margin.”
Gavin Baker May 22, 2026 ▶ 5:12 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
Jul 30, 2026 bullish
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Sacks: Anthropic is surpassing $70B in ARR this year
“Meanwhile, you're seeing Anthropic break into the seventies at 70 plus billion of ARR. Their forecast was to 10 X this year. From ten billion of ARR to a hundred billion, I think most people are saying they will exceed that, a 110, a 120.”
David Sacks Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 42:53 Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
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