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Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.

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20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: Elon Musk will make Twitter successful within five years
“If, again, you put me in a time machine five years from now, my gut is I come out and it, yes, the answer is yes. Just because this guy does things well and sometimes it takes a while, right? And there's going to be a lot of experimentation. It's going to be a…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:12:04 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Tim Urban: Berkeley and UCLA require diversity statements for chemistry professorships
“Berkeley, right now, and UCLA, and about 20 other schools. If you want to apply to be a chemistry professor, The first thing that you do is you have to fill out a diversity statement, and it's called, that sounds nice, a diversity statement, but it's actually,…”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 42:39 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI could surpass human intelligence within the next decade
“That could be changing, like, Next decade. Like in our lifetimes.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 11:51 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
Urban: AI will not stop at human intelligence but race past it
“That if AI can start moving up in intelligence, it's not going to stop at the human intelligence station. It's going to just race right by us because all of these limitations that our intelligence has”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 12:44 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
Urban: Chip export limits may fail to keep US ahead of China
“China has shown that maybe it's going to be harder to stay ahead of them than we thought. Maybe the, this limit on chips is not going to.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 18:20 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI-enabled bioweapons pose a severe risk in the near future
“I think that in the near future, of course, you're going to have a higher risk of Bad guys with using AI, you know, to do things like manufacturing scary bioweapons things like that, that you really, you know, things that could really kill a billion people.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 20:13 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
Urban: The New York Times explicitly became a political movement's arm
“That's a moment of truth where the New York Times basically says, you know, the paper of record, they cross that out, and they say, we now are an arm of this political movement.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 46:11 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Urban: Robot nannies and housekeepers will arrive in the 2020s
“Housekeepers, robot nannies and housekeepers will be in the twenties.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 54:28 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI could automate his writing job within two years
“12 months ago I had any inkling that AI might steal my job within, like two years. Didn't, I would have guessed, like, 20. So that's, I mean, and that's one of a hundred different things that I've been shocked about with AI in the last few months like everyone…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:11:09 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
ALL-IN Opinion
Urban: Wokeness is a far-left, postmodern, Marxist ideology
“I think wokeness is two things. It's a far left ideology, and it is far left. It's, you know, postmodern, and it's Marxist, and that's fine.”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 22:53 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Urban: James Bennet was fired for publishing Tom Cotton's op-ed
“We see James Bennett, the editor of the New York Times op-ed section, getting fired because he published an op-ed by Tom Cotton that 62% of the country agreed with, But it didn't jive with woke orthodoxy.”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 23:38 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Urban: Apple fired diversity head Denise Young Smith over comments
“You see Denise Young at Apple, a black woman who's the head of diversity, who says, to me, diversity is not, you know, it's more complicated than just about something like race. When I look at 12 blue-eyed, blond-haired guys, I see diversity. I see different p…”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 23:51 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
ALL-IN Insight
Urban: Outrage mobs hijack reputable institutions and spend down their trust
“A mob like this, they don't build anything, you know, they don't create. What they do is they appropriate, they hijack something, they take its existing good reputation, which is real, which is a lot of power, And they spend it down.”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 50:31 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
Y COMBINATOR Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: Humanity Faces Impending Extinction or a Radical Utopian Paradigm Shift
“It's either going to be the coolest story for humans or it's the end. This is the, That is a, it is a 501 page book. And that's it. Or this is the beginning of like the new paradigm. We have a new BC AD situation. We have a BC, which is like before something t…”
Tim Urban Jan 3, 2018 ▶ 5:52 Tim Urban of Wait But Why · Y Combinator
Urban: Multi-planetary colonization in our solar system will not protect humanity from rogue AI
“No, if it's something like really bad AI, it doesn't seem like AI would have, and they wanted to wipe us out. It doesn't seem like being on multiple planets in the solar system would really help.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 9:02 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
Urban: Liberal conservatives share more common ground with liberals than extremists
“If you can expand this a little bit and have more of this vertical axis and just think about this liberal house, you can start to say, actually the liberal, the lowercase, lowercase L liberal conservatives are more on my side than the People on the left with t…”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 37:35 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Partly supported
Urban: 62% of Americans supported Tom Cotton's military deployment op-ed
“During the George Floyd riots, Tom Cotton writes, they'll send in the troops, which 62% of Americans agreed with it. In that moment.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 45:23 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
Urban: Ideological mob power is brittle and erodes once dissent starts
“That, they can hold that for a while, but their power is brittle, and when certain people start saying something, gives permission for other people to say it, before you know it, more people are saying it, and they can't pitchfork anyone, and now people are st…”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 49:50 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2039
Tim Urban predicts humans will land on Mars around 2035
“I would, if I had to guess now, I'd say, you know, 20, 35, something around there.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 52:42 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
20VC Disclosure
Urban ignored crypto because it lacked proven future significance
“People wanted me to write about crypto, and I was kind of just like, ah, I don't know. This is, it's like this hasn't proven yet to be a huge part of the future, and if not, then it just seems so boring to write about.”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 20:10 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Urban: A large email list reduces the need for posting consistency
“A big email list makes it less important to have consistency. I still think it's better than not. I think that you know, it's not ideal the way I do things, but I'm very inconsistent now. I'll disappear for a while, and then I'll come out with something big, a…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 42:38 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Urban: New creators should master one core medium before expanding
“I don't think that, that, that a new creator needs to be worrying about, oh, I only doing like writing and drawing right now. I need to also be doing TikTok. So we need to start doing video to make sure we have stuff on TikTok. I don't think I think they shoul…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 44:35 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI will solve climate and lifespan challenges by the 2050s
“I think that AI, if things go well, I think we're going to have so many answers. In the near future. I think we're going to solve so many problems that seem really hard to us right now. I think 20, you know, these problems won't be a match for 20 fifties human…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:06:38 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: The world in 2080 will be amazing, not a dystopia
“So deep down, I still kind of feel like if I went into a time machine and got out in 2080, I'd be entering an amazing world, not a horrible dystopia. But I don't know, I couldn't really defend that argument.”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:08:31 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
ALL-IN Opinion
Tim Urban: The far left and far right aren't inherently bad
“The far left and far right aren't inherently bad.”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 2:21 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
ALL-IN Insight
Tim Urban: Low-rung thinkers adopt rigid, predictable political checklists across all issues
“In high-rung politics, if someone tells me their position on guns, I have no idea what their position is on climate change or on abortion or on immigration. In low-rung politics, You hear one position from someone, boom. I, you can just look at their demeanor,…”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 8:55 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tim Urban: Republican concern over national debt vanished under Donald Trump's tax package
“The classic example, the debt was the worst thing in the world during Obama's presidency, and then Trump comes in office, starts doing up these tax packages that are adding to it, and suddenly it's no problem.”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 11:51 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
ALL-IN Insight
Tim Urban: High-rung thinkers share more with ideological opponents than partisans
“If you're in that, one of those upper giants, the other upper giant is a lot more on your ultimate team, if you take a big step back, than the lower giant that wears the same color.”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 13:59 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
Urban: Psychedelics are cognitive tools to view internal thoughts objectively
“Psychedelics allows you to kind of like step outside and look at the sphere, and like maybe look at it from other angles, and like walk around it, look under it, and like, and that is incredible. Like it's an incredible tool.”
Tim Urban May 12, 2022 ▶ 10:38 Are We Alone In The Universe? (with Tim Urban)
Urban: Political Echo Chambers Lack Immune Systems to Filter Bad Ideas
“In, you know, in an echo chamber environment, there's no kind of like white blood cells to kill the virus, and so it just explains, it just, because dissent isn't okay over there. You know, it's not, not only is it not valued, it's very much frowned upon. So e…”
Tim Urban Jan 3, 2018 ▶ 32:15 Tim Urban of Wait But Why · Y Combinator
Urban: A-level content stands out because most online writing is mediocre
“There's actually not very much high quality, like really high quality stuff. There's a lot of like B minus content, C plus content out there. And if you can just work really hard and really put out, you know, a level content that people will notice.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 3:07 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban: LLMs lack general intelligence and cannot run a gas station
“LLM still can't run a gas station, you know, just because it involves all of these things that for us with general intelligence, it's no big deal for an AI. It's gonna have, it's just, it's not there. So we're still the king of the general intelligence castle.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 15:09 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
Urban: Social algorithms incentivize tribal rhetoric and unearned confidence
“The algorithms specifically, specifically incentivize what I would call like low rung thinking and low rung rhetoric you know, really tribal and also just really confident.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 32:15 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: Humanoid Robots Will Spread From Warehouses to Commercial Settings
“Humanoid robots seem like they're going to be everywhere. First in the industry, warehouses, then commercial, you know, pouring your coffee and folding clothes and, you know, the clothing store.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 54:15 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI will accelerate the fracture of shared societal reality
“We already see, of course, the fracture of the shared reality because of tribal narrow cast media, you know, each telling their own story and social media, creating bubbles of reality. And I think AI can just accelerate these trends.”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 0:10 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Urban: Lack of external structure lets instant gratification dictate decisions
“And then if you don't have any of those external structured things, then you end up in a you can end up with the monkey kind of running your whole life suddenly. So now it's like, you're actually like the monkey is making the decisions, which is actually worse…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 4:32 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Urban: Long-form writing monetizes downstream through paid speaking engagements
“It's like it's like taking content that if I write this AI post, it actually doesn't make much money because it's just on a blog. If I now go do a bunch of talks on AI, to me, that's like, that's the way that, that the, all the work I did for that AI post actu…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 10:31 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Held up
Urban: Wait But Why will remain a two-person team
“Six years ago, we hired Alicia who's the manager of lots of things which is just like the second in command at Wait But Why and does a little of everything. And that's about it. I was just like, I don't want a big team.”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 11:01 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Urban: Deep research beyond intermediate understanding yields diminishing returns
“There's a diminishing return on like excitement as you keep putting those years in. So for me, it's like, I want to get from like a two or three, you know, to a six. Five or six, something like that, where it's like, oh, okay, I understand this way more deeply…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 21:58 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Urban: 'Why Generation Y Yuppies Are Unhappy' reached 14M readers
“Fourteen million people read that in a week.”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 33:50 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI danger stems from super-potency, not malicious intent
“AI is probably gonna be dangerous not because It's going to be evil Terminator robots, but because it's going to be super powerful with unintended consequences”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 58:46 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
ALL-IN Opinion
Tim Urban thinks political discourse is overly constrained to a one-dimensional axis
“I think that we are very constrained to this one-dimensional axis.”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 2:04 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
ALL-IN Insight
Tim Urban: 1960s politics had distributed tribalism rather than less tribalism
“It's not that people were less tribal. It's that tribalism was distributed.”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 16:45 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
ALL-IN Insight
Tim Urban: Virality dumbs down information because nuance lacks emotional impact
“Virality dumbs down information because nuanced information doesn't hit as hard.”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 33:43 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
Urban: Twitter reveals how ideological bubbles perceive and argue about news
“Twitter doesn't just teach, doesn't just show you what the news is, it shows you what the perception of the news is, and it shows you what the arguments about the news is, and the different you know, a viewpoints and the different you can, and if you follow th…”
Tim Urban May 12, 2022 ▶ 1:34 Are We Alone In The Universe? (with Tim Urban)
Urban: Top investors and founders excel at macro and micro analysis
“And I do think the secret of some of the most You know, people who seem super prescient, like they can just, you know, read the future amazing at investing in stocks, or they're incredible entrepreneurs, they just can see opportunities or whatever it is. I eve…”
Tim Urban May 12, 2022 ▶ 17:45 Are We Alone In The Universe? (with Tim Urban)
Urban: Write about topics when they are buzzy but widely misunderstood
“A good time is when it's buzzy, but people don't quite understand it yet. It's a good time for a topic like that. You don't want to do it when everyone's like read a bunch of stuff and they already have a sense of it and it's become like now there's camps, pol…”
Tim Urban May 12, 2022 ▶ 41:28 Are We Alone In The Universe? (with Tim Urban)
Urban: Musk pursues critical goals even with ten percent success probabilities
“He'll talk about, even if he thinks something has a 10% chance of succeeding, but it's really important, it's worth trying.”
Tim Urban May 12, 2022 ▶ 51:36 Are We Alone In The Universe? (with Tim Urban)
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