The Ledger, every show

“Even in the first administration, there was the, there were some abuses of instruments of state for personal gain, for personal power. And that is, I think anti the spirit of anything in democracy, anti the spirit of anything in American.”

“Likely, and I have no inside information here, I think ByteDance waits for the election, because they presume that Trump could get bought off by investors since, you know, he's a coin-operated person in his entire life, not just as in his presidency.”

“In terms of being open, there's lots of different parameters of open, and open AI has been, you know, working to have, like, open, you know, kind of you know, with, obviously, identity and registration for safety, but open AI, API access. It wasn't called open…”

“Elon was part of that decision for you know, as kind of co-CEO in terms of making that decision. And so that's how open AI has always operated.”

“The trade wars will create a massive drop in prosperity in the U.S.”

“There is next to zero chance that the missions that they have declared will be successful because the only way to get two trillion out of the budget would be to massively reduce the deficit and reduce defense spending.”

“I was never a client of Jeffrey Epstein's.”

“I would say end of 25, so I'm approaching 200,000.”

“We could construct in a small number of months a medical assistant that is as capable as kind of call it You know an average GP or better that could run for, you know, small number of dollars per hour.”

“Don't try to hold out for money on the training side of things, because, you know, we're going to create synthetic data, we're going to do all kinds of other things that are going to mean that no one's particular data is really going to matter.”

“The very first OpenAI Microsoft deal was, you know, Satya and Kevin Scott brought to the Microsoft board. We want to put a billion dollars into the investment in this vehicle. From a five one C three that doesn't really have any particular plans at making its …”

“And for example, a researcher at Microsoft, again, Peter Lee, has written an excellent book about showing how GPT-IV can already do medical diagnoses better than, you know, the majority of human GPs.”

“Like, I actually think that within 10 years, we will strongly want a world in which it's only autonomous vehicles on the road and not human beings.”

“There's a platform sense in which I think there will be, will have, people will have an agent, maybe a couple, but certainly an agent that's kind of their general front door.”

“With AI, people haven't realized the whole consumer revolution. That's going to come with AI. And I agree with you. And as we know, as we see in Silicon Valley, everyone's talking, well, well, okay, enterprise is where the money is. That was the same thing bac…”

“Silicon Valley will classically go, we'll put it all in simulation and that will solve it. Nope, that's not going to work.”

“And so the diagnostic capabilities, these are much better knowledge stores than any human being on the planet.”

“I actually think there will be a position for a doctor, 10 years from now, 20 years from now. It won't be as the knowledge store. It will be as a user of an, as an expert user of the knowledge store, but it's not gonna be, oh, because I went to med school for …”

“I think agency and goals is almost certain. There is a question. I think this is one of the areas where we want to have some clarity and control. That was a little bit like the kind of question of what kind of compute fabric holds it together because you can't…”

“They obsess about the climate change stuff, because actually, in fact, if you apply intelligence at the scale and availability of electricity, you're going to help climate change. You're going to solve grids and appliances and a bunch of other stuff. And just …”

“Now, as you and I know, we are line of sight from a medical assistant that's 24 seven on every smartphone for every person who has a smartphone.”

“A small number of years called three, five. How is assessment going to be done? It's going to be one-on-one oral interviews with AIs.”

“When you think about what AI is going to bring to the transformation of human life and human work, the investments will, I think, seem small. In retrospect”

“Well, I do think that there will be efforts at foundational models that won't work. And especially I think late entrance like late entrance have a harder, you know, catch up routine and a lot of kind of expense to go to it”

“China and multiple companies within it, because, you know, I haven't evaluated yet. Minimax, which also just came out recently, but will have a number of very strong contenders for this in the world technology landscape.”

“A hundred percent. One of the party tricks I do is I bring out my phone and put ChatGPT on audio mode to show people. Because part of when we learn to use phones or PCs, we've learned, you know, with GUIs and everything else, we've made it softer, but there's …”

“We're not reaching the upper end of LLM. The next large LLM that's training with a larger computer will still have new magic in it. The scale game is still playing.”

“Now, again, you know, unfortunately, I would predict that they're not going to do that because it's a political third rail and it requires, you know, Courage and other things to go into it.”

“I think it's guaranteed, unfortunately, and given that it is an inevitable, it's a physics process. I worry about that. That's one of the I think likely outcomes of the next administration that will be a serious impact.”

“Data centers, I think, are something like, it's some single digit percentage of all power consumption. Like three, something, so it's not very big. And then AI within data centers is like, you know, a single digit percentage of that. So currently AI is not acc…”

“While I expect that the next administration, because they'll say everything the Biden administration did was terrible, we're tearing it all down, that they'll tear it down in words and then keep doing the work, right, would be my hope.”

“It's like, well, actually, in fact, we can create synthetic data, and there's a ton of data that's out there that's not part of the standard internet training corpus. So, the scale game is still playing.”

“I mean, look, I'm an investor and all the rest, and I think Figma is an amazing company that's gonna, gonna, I'm probably going to make substantially more money because the deal was essentially derailed, but there was a bad theory of the case.”

“Pre the merger closing you know, Elon is, is saying, oh, I got the CEO of Bill Harris. He's the best ever. That's part of the reason why you should give so much percentage of the company to x.com and the merger, you know, dah, dah, dah, dah, dah, dah. And then…”

“I basically told them and say, hey, look, it's sustainable for two years, which for you guys means forever, right?”

“And I think there's gonna be a bunch of those kind of coming in, and the bulk of the demand will be on the inference side”

“My guess is the soonest will be GPT-Six and it might not even, it may even be after that, and that's part of what the bet that OpenAI and Anthropic and the hyperscalers are all making, is that that, that return to scale”

“I know Sam offered him as much of the investment round as he wanted. Right? Like, he could have done the whole thing. He could have let it.”

“I think that the prime candidate is likely to be, and I'm speaking as an individual and as a venture capitalist here, is Apple with the App Store, right?”

“I think this week Kroger said, yes, we did actually artificially raise prices. To profit from the pandemic, you know”

“And so I think part of what we're going to be doing is kind of training, you know, AI to kind of be as an assistant on every smartphone, and the first question will be is, do you have access to a GP, right? Because by the way, if you have access to a GP, You k…”

“But one of the things that I believe with some vigor is that anything that we count as a professional activity, Today, or yesterday, will, within three to five years, have an AI, you know, use the Microsoft language, copilot.”

“I think that, call it five years from now, there won't be a professional doing professional activity who, if they're not using AI to help them with it, is being fully competent at the profession they're doing.”

“I do think that it won't be, that it's kind of like a grain, like grain of wheat. Or a pound of copper, you know, kind of in the classic thing. I think that foundation models will be different. They'll be different, like there'll be this one, there'll be found…”

“And so I think we're already in the equivalent of a resumption of the acceleration of Moore's law.”

“So I think that there is literally no doubt in my mind that there's viable businesses that will play out, and... Purely in the foundation model. Purely in the foundation model”

“If what we were was, call it, seven big tech companies heading to three, then I would be concerned, right, because of, kind of, the monopoly effect. But I actually think we're seven big tech companies heading, like, 15.”

“I think it's almost zero percent the way a frontier model created and the way the frontier models exist today. I think that wave is gone.”