The Ledger, every show

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.

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AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Supported
Thiel: Lawsuit discovery proved the Army covered up reports favoring Palantir
“And then when you and then what you can do when you sue somebody is you get discovery and you discover, and you sort of discover what's going on in the sausage making factory that no one's investigated for 22 years. And there's a lot of stuff and we're sort of…”
Peter Thiel Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 12:17 Tariffs, DOGE & Fixing America: Peter Thiel's Skeptic Solutions · Joe Lonsdale
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thiel claims Kamala Harris will win a close election by cheating
“If it's like going to be a razor thin close election, then I'm pretty sure Kamala will win because they will cheat. They will fortify it. They will steal the ballots.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 3:30 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thiel: U.S. military's DCGS software was a failed billion-dollar boondoggle
“There was this software program. This was once we moved from intelligence community into the broader military called DSIGs, which was just sort of this in theory was a system we were supposed to figure out ways to integrate the data across all these units in t…”
Peter Thiel Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 11:04 Tariffs, DOGE & Fixing America: Peter Thiel's Skeptic Solutions · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thiel: Trump's Second Term Will Accomplish More Than His First
“Normally the second term does less than the first term, This is going to be the, I think will be the real first term.”
Peter Thiel Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 21:46 Tariffs, DOGE & Fixing America: Peter Thiel's Skeptic Solutions · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thiel: Top tech CEOs express radically different views in private versus public
“There was a incredible felt sense among all the top CEOs I know in Silicon Valley that there's all the stuff you can't talk about. There are things they tell me behind closed doors that are very different from what they feel they can say in public. And the gap…”
Peter Thiel Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 44:35 Tariffs, DOGE & Fixing America: Peter Thiel's Skeptic Solutions · Joe Lonsdale
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thiel predicts the 2024 presidential election will not be close
“My one contrarian view on the election is that it's not going to be close. You know, most presidential elections aren't, and you know, one side just breaks. You know, 20, twenty-sixteen, twenty-twenty, we're super close, but two-thirds of the elections aren't,…”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 2:50 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thiel: Ukraine and Gaza conflicts are warmups to a China-Taiwan war
“You know, I think we're sort of sleepwalking into Armageddon with you know, the Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza are just sort of the warmups to the China-Taiwan war.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 6:31 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thiel: Declaring US won't defend Taiwan would prompt immediate Chinese invasion
“If you if you if you say we want some guardrails and we won't defend Taiwan, then they'd get invaded right away.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 7:51 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thiel: No talented founders started semiconductor companies after 1993
“No, no talented people started semiconductor companies after 1993 because they all went into, you know, into software.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 43:15 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Partly supported
Thiel: China directly and indirectly accounts for half the US trade deficit
“I think the rough numbers are that about a quarter of the US trade deficit is bilaterally with China, but another quarter is indirectly with China. So China is, is sort of half the problem.”
Peter Thiel Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 26:29 Tariffs, DOGE & Fixing America: Peter Thiel's Skeptic Solutions · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thiel: Silicon Valley experienced a rapid preference cascade away from left-wing orthodoxy
“And then you can get this, at some point, you can get this very, very fast preference cascade, and something like this happened in Silicon Valley in the last few years. It was a buildup that took a few years for people to realize that, you know, Things were ve…”
Peter Thiel Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 46:54 Tariffs, DOGE & Fixing America: Peter Thiel's Skeptic Solutions · Joe Lonsdale
ALL-IN Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2029
Thiel predicts US will ban TikTok within 24 hours of Taiwan invasion
“TikTok will be banned, 24 hours after the Taiwan invasion.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 9:55 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thiel predicts US and Chinese economies will decouple
“My intuition for, you know, what is going to happen without making any normative judgments at all is it is going to decouple.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 12:33 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thiel: AI in 2024 is like the internet in 1999
“I keep thinking that AI in 20, 23, 24 is like the internet in 1999. It's really big, it's going to be very important, it's going to transform the world, not, you know, in six months, but in 20 years,”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 20:09 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Thiel: Nvidia earns over 100% of AI industry profits
“Nvidia is making over 100% of the profits. Everybody else is collectively losing money.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 21:05 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Peter Thiel: US economy is close to a recession
“I suspect we're close to a recession.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 30:13 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thiel: Higher education bubble will end once baby boomers exit
“So I think the bubble will be done once the boomers have exited stage left.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 35:53 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thiel: Tech market is not a bubble because public IPO participation is low
“I tend to think the bubbles always required the public to be involved in a very big way, and there were these psychosocial phenomena on some level, and this, the public is not really involved because the companies are not going public until extremely late in t…”
Peter Thiel Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 35:19 a16z Podcast | The (Definite) Optimism of Peter Thiel
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thiel: US may see nuclear power renaissance as baby boomers lose power
“I'm hopeful it's a bit of a generational issue where the anti-nuclear people Are these boomers, these baby boomers who came of age in the seventies and once they lose grip on power in the next decade or so we may be able to have a nuclear renaissance in this c…”
Peter Thiel Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 44:47 a16z Podcast | The (Definite) Optimism of Peter Thiel
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thiel: Palantir faced zero competition for a decade after launch
“And so there was sort of an element where if you could get through, you would have no competition. And then, you know, a decade later, we still had no competition.”
Peter Thiel Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 16:40 Tariffs, DOGE & Fixing America: Peter Thiel's Skeptic Solutions · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Contradicted
Thiel: NRC Has Not Approved a New Reactor Design in 50+ Years
“The Nuclear Regulatory Commission basically hasn't approved a new reactor design in, in 50 plus years.”
Peter Thiel Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 34:45 Tariffs, DOGE & Fixing America: Peter Thiel's Skeptic Solutions · Joe Lonsdale
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Thiel: Western democracies use single-day voting with almost no absentee ballots
“At a minimum, you run them, you try to run elections the same way you do it in every other Western democracy. You have one day voting. You have practically no absentee ballots. You have and it's, you know, it's one day where everything happens. It's not this t…”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 4:43 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Thiel: 2009 college grads owed more debt 12 years later than at graduation
“If you take the people who graduated from college in 2009, and you fast forward 12 years to 2021, the median person had more student debt 12 years later than they graduated with.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 34:54 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thiel: Investor passed on PayPal because Musk's car outvalued his condo
“There was one of the investors I talked to years later who talked to us in summer of 2000 and said he didn't want to invest in the company because the CEO, Elon was living in a one bedroom condo in Palo Alto at the time, and the CEO was clearly lying to him be…”
Peter Thiel Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 30:16 a16z Podcast | The (Definite) Optimism of Peter Thiel
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thiel: No VCs wanted to fund defense tech when Palantir started
“In 2004, 2003, 2004, 2005, when we started Palantir the idea of trying to do a military related software startup. There was nobody who even wanted to give you money as a venture capitalist.”
Peter Thiel Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 16:22 Tariffs, DOGE & Fixing America: Peter Thiel's Skeptic Solutions · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Contradicted
Thiel: Building a Manhattan subway costs roughly $1 billion per mile
“It costs, you know, it costs to build a subway in Manhattan. It's like a billion dollars a mile.”
Peter Thiel Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 32:10 Tariffs, DOGE & Fixing America: Peter Thiel's Skeptic Solutions · Joe Lonsdale
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Thiel: 2005 laws prevent student debt bankruptcy discharge and garnish Social Security
“It's in 2005 it was under Bush 43 that the bankruptcy laws Got rewritten in the U.S. Where you cannot discharge student debt even if you go bankrupt, and if you haven't paid it off by the time you're 65, your Social Security wage checks will be garnished.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 37:31 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Thiel: PayPal Scaled From 100k to 1M Users in 10 Weeks
“The customer base was growing at sort of a five to seven percent daily compounding rate. It had hit a 100,000 users in, on February third, 2000, and got to a million by mid-April of 2000.”
Peter Thiel Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:54 a16z Podcast | The (Definite) Optimism of Peter Thiel
a16z Assertion Supported
Thiel: PayPal Raised $100M Days Before Dot-Com Crash
“And so we closed on, yeah, we closed on a hundred million on Friday, March 31st, and the following Monday, the bottom fell out of the market.”
Peter Thiel Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:51 a16z Podcast | The (Definite) Optimism of Peter Thiel
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Thiel: PayPal reached break-even in September 2001, first post-9/11 IPO filing
“We got to break even in September, 2001. We were the first company in the U.S. To file after nine 11, filed end of September.”
Peter Thiel Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:43 a16z Podcast | The (Definite) Optimism of Peter Thiel
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thiel: Elon Musk spent one-third of his liquid net worth on a McLaren F1
“I think he had, it was like one third of it.”
Peter Thiel Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 30:12 a16z Podcast | The (Definite) Optimism of Peter Thiel
a16z Assertion Contradicted
Thiel: Jeep in 1941 was America's last successful new car company pre-Tesla
“The last successful new car company in the U.S. Had been Jeep, which was started in 1941.”
Peter Thiel Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 32:01 a16z Podcast | The (Definite) Optimism of Peter Thiel
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Thiel: US student debt grew from $300B in 2000 to nearly $2T
“The student debt was three hundred billion in 2000, It's basically close to two trillion at this point”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 34:19 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
a16z Assertion Supported
Thiel: PayPal's Early Referral Strategy Cost $20 Per Customer
“If you signed up, you got 10 dollars. If you referred someone who signed up, you got 10 dollars. So we had a 20 dollar customer acquisition cost.”
Peter Thiel Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:46 a16z Podcast | The (Definite) Optimism of Peter Thiel
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thiel: PayPal burned over $10M monthly through September 2000
“We did dial back the marketing pretty quickly, although there was there was there then emerged this very big fraud problem in rapid succession and so the burn stayed over ten million a month all the way through September, 2000.”
Peter Thiel Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 8:47 a16z Podcast | The (Definite) Optimism of Peter Thiel
a16z Assertion Open · timeframe May 2000
Thiel: 30-35% of eBay sellers used PayPal by May 2000
“Yeah, we'd started targeting eBay January, 2000. I'd say it was 30, 35% of the sellers on eBay were using us by April or May, so it was fairly heavily embedded.”
Peter Thiel Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:23 a16z Podcast | The (Definite) Optimism of Peter Thiel
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