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CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2027
Layer-2 scaling systems will eventually decouple from Ethereum and become independent
“So yes, these systems are tightly coupled to Ethereum today, but once they get substantial use and substantial capital inside them and all sorts of app developers deploying straight to them, at some point they're going to say, wow, why don't we integrate to a …”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 44:59 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Olaf Carlson-Wee: Every global financial transaction will eventually occur on DeFi
“I really do view it as where every financial transaction in the world will take place.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 47:02 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
a16z Opinion
Carlson-Wee: ICOs are the most efficient capital coordination mechanism in history
“With ICOs, I think that it's probably the fastest and most efficient capital coordination we've ever seen in capitalism, like, since money was invented.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 19:31 a16z Podcast | Trends in Cryptocurrencies
20VC Insight
Carlson-Wee: Companies launching tokens must stop extracting direct network revenue
“The second thing is that if you are launching a token and you're a private company, you should be ready to stop extracting any revenue from your network. So however you were extracting revenue from the network, whether this was advertising or paid subscription…”
Olaf Carlson Wee Dec 11, 2017 ▶ 15:51 20VC: Inside The World's Leading Crypto Fund, The Future Exit Environment for Crypto Assets & The Beauty Of Benevolent Dictatorship with Olaf Carlson-Wee, Founder @ Polychain Capital
20VC Opinion
Carlson-Wee: Solving humanity's deepest problems requires altering the human brain
“I think that the only means to solve the deepest problems that humanity faces is actually to alter the human brain itself.”
Olaf Carlson Wee Dec 11, 2017 ▶ 23:31 20VC: Inside The World's Leading Crypto Fund, The Future Exit Environment for Crypto Assets & The Beauty Of Benevolent Dictatorship with Olaf Carlson-Wee, Founder @ Polychain Capital
Disintermediating Web2 creators via crypto represents a massive future market opportunity
“And I do think that this emergent stuff in crypto that allows artists and other types of creators to basically monetize separate from their platform that they distribute through is very important to pay attention to. Because if you can disintermediate all thos…”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 35:06 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
Blockchains require mechanistic value accrual between network usage and token price
“I think that every blockchain in the long term needs to have a tightly coupled mechanistic value accrual mechanism between use of the system And the price of the asset.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 42:12 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
Centralized stablecoins like USDC and Tether ultimately determine canonical chain forks
“And now it's just which chain does USDC and Tether go to? Because they can't duplicate the offline reserves. When the chain forks, they really are going to determine the real chain.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 50:53 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
Crypto is an economic renaissance disguised as a get-rich-quick scheme
“I think that this is an economic and technological renaissance dressed up as a get rich quick scheme.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 51:27 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Carlson-Wee: Ethereum has 100 times more app developers than core developers
“Ethereum has this weird problem where there's probably a hundred X the number of developers building apps on top as there are building core protocol stuff for Ethereum.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee May 8, 2019 ▶ 11:27 Seven Trends in Blockchain Computing (Spring 2019)
a16z Insight
Carlson-Wee: Mitigating 51% attacks is significantly easier in proof-of-stake networks
“The second thing is that if you attack a proof of stake network, mitigation of the attack after it happens is significantly easier. So if you, come in with, you know, 51% of the coins, and in, in most proof of stake, it's actually 34% of the coins is enough to…”
Olaf Carlson-Wee May 8, 2019 ▶ 14:48 Seven Trends in Blockchain Computing (Spring 2019)
a16z Insight
Carlson-Wee: Decentralization is an architecture for permissionless building, not an ideology
“Decentralization is not an ideological thing. It's an architecture to support that permissionless building.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee May 8, 2019 ▶ 25:27 Seven Trends in Blockchain Computing (Spring 2019)
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carlson-Wee predicts DAOs will use internet money for financial contracts
“If we do have these sort of decentralized, autonomous corporations or something, they're going to be using the internet money in order to communicate among each other and create financial contracts and things like that.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee May 8, 2019 ▶ 27:49 Seven Trends in Blockchain Computing (Spring 2019)
a16z Opinion
Carlson-Wee: Locking 5% of Ether in MakerDAO creates systemic risk
“Now I do think it almost starts to create systemic risk at around, say, five percent of all ether.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee May 8, 2019 ▶ 35:16 Seven Trends in Blockchain Computing (Spring 2019)
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carlson-Wee: P2P protocols will eventually compete with Web 2.0 giants like Uber and Twitter
“Many of the major Web two point O companies that have seen a substantial growth in the last 15 years, this is Twitter, Tumblr, Etsy, eBay, Uber, every single one of these companies could someday see competition from a peer peer-to-peer protocol.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:46 a16z Podcast | Trends in Cryptocurrencies
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carlson-Wee: Crypto development pace will never slow down post-ICO inflection
“I think that despite ICOs right now being very noisy, sort of scammy and all these things, it has created an inflection point where when you have a brilliant idea, the capital is much more readily available from a large group of people that actually conceptual…”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:38 a16z Podcast | Trends in Cryptocurrencies
a16z Opinion
Carlson-Wee: Disproportionate economic value accrues to crypto protocols over applications
“I think in this space, disproportionate value accrues to that protocol level.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:16 a16z Podcast | Cryptocurrencies, App Coins, and Investing in Protocols
a16z Opinion
Carlson-Wee: MakerDAO has high chance of failure, but massive upside if successful
“What the maker system is attempting to do, and I view it as hugely ambitious with, you know, likely a high chance of failure, but if they can pull it off, it's massive”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 21:02 a16z Podcast | Cryptocurrencies, App Coins, and Investing in Protocols
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carlson-Wee: Future web value will accrue to protocol users, not VCs
“So all of the wealth that's been generated by venture capitalists and entrepreneurs of centralized companies, I think will get pushback to everyday investors who have access to all of these things, and that all the value that accrues will go to the early adopt…”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 31:17 a16z Podcast | Cryptocurrencies, App Coins, and Investing in Protocols
20VC Insight
Carlson-Wee: Avoid opportunistic Wall Street transplants when backing crypto tech funds
“I'd look for people that have been in this ecosystem for a long time. I'd look for people that have deep technical expertise in this subject matter. I'd look for people that have solid networks among relevant people in this ecosystem. I would avoid Folks that …”
Olaf Carlson Wee Dec 11, 2017 ▶ 7:56 20VC: Inside The World's Leading Crypto Fund, The Future Exit Environment for Crypto Assets & The Beauty Of Benevolent Dictatorship with Olaf Carlson-Wee, Founder @ Polychain Capital
20VC Disclosure
Carlson-Wee: Polychain operates under a benevolent dictator investment model
“So internally, we do have a benevolent dictator, which is me. I do obviously seek help from our research team extensively, as well as other partners at the firm. I, in general, though, I have kind of full veto rights over any investment.”
Olaf Carlson Wee Dec 11, 2017 ▶ 11:21 20VC: Inside The World's Leading Crypto Fund, The Future Exit Environment for Crypto Assets & The Beauty Of Benevolent Dictatorship with Olaf Carlson-Wee, Founder @ Polychain Capital
20VC Insight
Carlson-Wee: Companies without network effects should not issue tokens
“So I think that a good rule of thumb, though, is that these companies must have network effects, period. If your business is not based on building network effects, then it doesn't make sense for you to create a token. I think this rule is the one I see broken …”
Olaf Carlson Wee Dec 11, 2017 ▶ 15:35 20VC: Inside The World's Leading Crypto Fund, The Future Exit Environment for Crypto Assets & The Beauty Of Benevolent Dictatorship with Olaf Carlson-Wee, Founder @ Polychain Capital
20VC Prediction Held up
Carlson-Wee: Crypto ecosystem will experience mergers of token networks
“I do think that we will see M&As of token networks.”
Olaf Carlson Wee Dec 11, 2017 ▶ 17:20 20VC: Inside The World's Leading Crypto Fund, The Future Exit Environment for Crypto Assets & The Beauty Of Benevolent Dictatorship with Olaf Carlson-Wee, Founder @ Polychain Capital
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carlson-Wee: ICOs will irreversibly accelerate crypto software development
“So I do think that this is an inflection point for the entire ecosystem, and that this concept of a crowd sale or so-called ICO is really a case of the genie being out of the bottle, and it will irreversibly change the pace of software development in this ecos…”
Olaf Carlson Wee Dec 11, 2017 ▶ 19:13 20VC: Inside The World's Leading Crypto Fund, The Future Exit Environment for Crypto Assets & The Beauty Of Benevolent Dictatorship with Olaf Carlson-Wee, Founder @ Polychain Capital
20VC Opinion
Carlson-Wee: Cognition-enhancing technologies are massively underinvested
“I believe that cognition enhancing technologies are massively underinvested and underdeveloped right now.”
Olaf Carlson Wee Dec 11, 2017 ▶ 22:55 20VC: Inside The World's Leading Crypto Fund, The Future Exit Environment for Crypto Assets & The Beauty Of Benevolent Dictatorship with Olaf Carlson-Wee, Founder @ Polychain Capital
Olaf Carlson-Wee: Crypto is a superior product to state-issued fiat money
“You sort of have this alternative to the state issued money. That's sort of a better product for the end user.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 8:07 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Protocol block rewards could replace centralized corporate HR systems for digital labor
“But I think that that type of design mechanism can be applied to more and more types of basically labor done on computers. So if your job is on a computer, I think that there's some chance that you can replace a lot of those hierarchical, centrally managed, al…”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 27:56 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
DAOs will pay engineers more by eliminating inefficient corporate middle management
“I think that if you can pull that off, you can get the engineers to be paid significantly more because there's basically not this middle management business layer that's extremely inefficient relative to just running it all on software.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 30:34 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Open-source crypto mechanism designers will become architects of the future economy
“These mechanism designers that are just building these open source mechanisms without knowing it are sort of going to become the designers of the new future economy. All of their designs are going to be used in ways they could never have perceived.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 32:30 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
The wide spectrum of cost and security requirements necessitates multiple blockchains
“I just think that there's, on just the level of cost versus security, a very wide spectrum that you can't easily fit inside a single chain.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 40:28 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
The crypto ecosystem only has room for six to twelve Layer-1 blockchains
“I think there is space for a bunch of different layer one chains. I don't mean hundreds, but I do mean a half a dozen to a dozen.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 41:48 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cross-chain bridges will eventually rely on economic security, not multisig servers
“So I think the future of bridges is bridge protocols based on economic security instead of basically multi-sig or server security, rather than this bespoke one-to-one style of bridge that is more popular today.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 44:20 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
NFTs prevent platform lock-in through open, cross-platform composability
“The thing about NFTs that makes them interesting is that they are open and cross-platform. So you can't lock in your user to your proprietary system.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 46:03 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coupling offline collateral with DeFi will unlock a 100x market expansion
“If we can couple offline collateral and assets with DeFi, it's at least a 10 X, probably closer to a hundred X unlock from where DeFi is today.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 47:35 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
DAOs should function strictly as capital allocators rather than operational managers
“It's just terribly inefficient to have any doubt, like zoom in and make these microscopic decisions about who to hire or like an individual person's salary or stuff like that. It's just crazy to me. Instead, they need to allocate to basically an entrepreneur, …”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 48:09 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Transhumanist philosopher David Pearce will be remembered as centuries ahead of time
“I think he's a hundred or 200 years from now going to be remembered as way ahead of his time, but today almost thought crime from a cultural perspective.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 55:12 Olaf Carlson-Wee – The Future of Crypto (EP.257, Crypto for Institutions 2 – EP.04)
a16z Insight
Carlson-Wee: Bitcoin enables internet digital scarcity and sovereign-free finance
“It means that for the first time you can have digital scarcity on the internet, And of course you could move to a global unified financial and monetary system that's outside the scope of any sort of sovereign state political control and is really opt in by all…”
Olaf Carlson-Wee May 8, 2019 ▶ 1:03 Seven Trends in Blockchain Computing (Spring 2019)
a16z Insight
Carlson-Wee: Ethereum wallets function more like web browsers than bank accounts
“For me, I started seeing a big, like, breakthrough in my head was when I realized that Ethereum wallets were actually more like browsers than bank accounts.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee May 8, 2019 ▶ 1:47 Seven Trends in Blockchain Computing (Spring 2019)
a16z Insight
Carlson-Wee: Secure On-Chain Governance Is Achievable and Primary
“I'm very skeptical that we can't achieve very secure on-chain governance. I think we can. And to me, it's a very big deal because if you get governance right, in theory, everything else should be a sort of waterfall down from that.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee May 8, 2019 ▶ 10:53 Seven Trends in Blockchain Computing (Spring 2019)
a16z Insight
Carlson-Wee: Daily active users is the wrong metric for financial crypto products
“People are talking about daily active users, but of like financial products. It's just odd thing. So like, are you a daily active user of your mortgage, right? It's like the wrong framework. It's just the wrong question, right?”
Olaf Carlson-Wee May 8, 2019 ▶ 20:18 Seven Trends in Blockchain Computing (Spring 2019)
a16z Assertion Contradicted
Carlson-Wee: Cosmos is first system enabling cross-blockchain interaction
“And Cosmos is a great example, launched just about a month ago. And it's sort of the first system we've ever seen that will allow cross blockchain interaction.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee May 8, 2019 ▶ 29:39 Seven Trends in Blockchain Computing (Spring 2019)
a16z Assertion Supported
Carlson-Wee: Homomorphic encryption enables machine learning on private, encrypted user data
“One interesting intersection is homomorphic encryption, which allows you to train a machine learning system based on data that you actually don't know the plain text, so you only see the encrypted version. It allows people to say, okay, I'm going to share the …”
Olaf Carlson-Wee May 8, 2019 ▶ 45:34 Seven Trends in Blockchain Computing (Spring 2019)
a16z Opinion
Carlson-Wee: Web2 ad business models create adversarial relationships with users
“Today, yes, Facebook loves its users, but also it wants to put as many ads in front of the users as it possibly can, which actually disrupt the user experience. So it's yeah, it's an odd relationship, I think, that these web two platforms have with their user …”
Olaf Carlson-Wee May 8, 2019 ▶ 46:42 Seven Trends in Blockchain Computing (Spring 2019)
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Olaf Carlson-Wee: Decentralized consumer apps will arrive in three years
“I think it's early, but the consumer apps will come in, you know, call it three years or something like that.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 8:01 a16z Podcast | Trends in Cryptocurrencies
a16z Insight
Carlson-Wee: Token ownership creates fanaticism by combining utility and financial gains
“People in Bitcoin are fanatics, and it's because they not only gain value in a more traditional sense of network effects when the user base grows, they also actually gain wealth from that user base growing.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:24 a16z Podcast | Cryptocurrencies, App Coins, and Investing in Protocols
a16z Assertion Supported
Carlson-Wee: Ethereum enables features simply not possible on Bitcoin
“So you can build all sorts of more advanced features in Ethereum that are simply not possible with Bitcoin.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:43 a16z Podcast | Cryptocurrencies, App Coins, and Investing in Protocols
a16z Disclosure
Carlson-Wee: Polychain bought Maker tokens via Ethereum because Maker lacked bank accounts
“When we wanted to do a deal with Maker and purchase some of these tokens, there was no legal entity. Behind them. It's a pure open source project, and there was no bank account they had, so there was no way we could send them money. So we actually had to send …”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 24:08 a16z Podcast | Cryptocurrencies, App Coins, and Investing in Protocols
a16z Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2017
Carlson-Wee: Crypto assets are uncorrelated with traditional markets and commodities
“This is uncorrelated with Oil, gold, emerging market currencies, the equity markets, bonds, it's really just uncorrelated with everything else, and it's because it's a totally new phenomena.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 24:38 a16z Podcast | Cryptocurrencies, App Coins, and Investing in Protocols
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