The Ledger, every show

“It doesn't instinctively feel to me like we're two to three years away. I know some people think that it is, and I respect them deeply. Like a lot of smart people can disagree on stuff like that. I feel like we're still a good decade or so away. And when a sci…”

“We are not data constrained right now, we're generating vast amounts of high quality synthetic data, which is proving to be useful.”

“And so, you know, we basically took the view that we should extend the IP license through to 20 32. We'll continue to get model drops from OpenAI and all their IP. We'll continue to be their primary compute provider. A huge scale to the tune of, you know, bill…”

“There's many more Practical near-term threats to stability, which we should be focused on rather than talking about existential risk and AGI suddenly emerging and exploding and taking over and manipulating us and taking over armies and all of this kind of fear…”

“You know, if I was Google, I would be pretty worried because that old school system does not look like it's going to be where we're at in 10 years time.”

“You know, the Valley probably needs to be a bit more open to the European approach. The reality is that, you know, we have to figure out as a society which bodies we trust to make decisions which influence recommendation algorithms or AI algorithms, right? And…”

“That we don't want to bundle together all these capabilities so that there's a higher risk of a, you know, recursively self-improving exponential takeoff that then replaces our species, and I think that that is very low probability from what I see today, but i…”

“And the other one is the sort of length of a task horizon that can be predicted. So at the moment it's like a few steps, but soon it will be tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of steps accurately. And that will mean that a model can like use APIs or quer…”

“I don't think in the next few years it's gonna be the big differentiator. I think that more synthetic data, more human feedback and high quality data is gonna be the differentiator.”

“So, it doesn't seem very far-fetched to say that in a few years time, at significant scale, That will get closed loop. And, you know, it'll be interesting to see you know, what happens and whether the quality bar can be maintained and whether performance does …”

“We're already seeing examples of what some people are calling deception, but it's really just like kind of reward hacking. Hacking kind of implies too much intentionality. So it's just, it's an accidental Exploit is found a path, like, you know, to satisfying …”

“The ability to access knowledge the ability to use that knowledge to get stuff done, to write new programs, to do new scientific discovery, to get access to AI companions and emotional support. These things are gonna be zero marginal cost in a decade.”

“I think that as the AI models get commoditized you know, really all the value will be added in that final layer of orchestration, product integration, and that's what we're seeing with this diagnostic orchestrator.”

“The other thing that we see, for example, is that it's able to optimize for cost as well and reduce the cost by avoiding unnecessary tests versus the humans.”

“The fact that we're able to get a four X improvement on human performance across the board on diagnosis with significantly reduced cost in super fast time, I mean, to me that feels like steps towards a true medical super intelligence, and we would want to try …”

“I genuinely think This is going to be the next platform of computing, just as, you know, we had desktops and laptops and smartphones and wearables, and I think over time we're going to have deep and meaningful lasting relationships with our personal AI compani…”

“We are like at the very beginning of a new era where there are going to be as many copilots or AI companions as there are people. There are going to be agents in the workplace that are doing work on our behalf.”

“I can see now, having been through this cycle a few times, that we're nearly there with memory, personalization, and actions. It's really at the GBT-III stage, so it's really buggy and stuff, but when it works, it's breathtaking.”

“All of their inference comes through us, and so we, there's no slowdown in our you know, relationship with them. We sell them as much as we want to offer them, and then if there's any extra demand that they have, particularly on the, you know on the Oracle sid…”

“So I expect that to happen for GPT-IV, GPT-IV-O and all of the other models down the road.”

“Whilst we have a incredibly deep partnership with them, which is going to last way through 20, 30 and beyond,”

“That's the transition that's going to happen over the next 15 years is that it is going to be a cheap and basically abundant resource to have these reasoning models that can take action in your workplace, that can orchestrate your apps and get things done for …”

“I think that's a good definition of intelligence, but I think in a weird way, it's over-rotated the entire field on one aspect of intelligence, which is generality, you know, and I think OpenAI and then subsequently Anthropic and others have taken up this defa…”

“And in fact, I think the key, and we can get into this obviously in a moment, but I think the key element that is going to really unlock this field is actually going to be the router. In the middle of a series of different systems which are specialized, some o…”

“We've really tried hard to make safety our number one priority, and part of the way that we do that is by ensuring that you can't actually prompt hack Pi.”

“We tried really hard to get that launched at the time, but there just wasn't the appetite for taking the kind of risk. It was pretty clear to a lot of people at Google That this was potentially going to unseat Google's existing search business. It's super hard…”

“And if that trajectory continues over the next decade and more, and we see no reason why it won't, that is going to be the most incredible boost to creativity and productivity in the history of our species.”

“So in many ways, it was ChatGPT way before ChatGPT, and we were completely blown away with how good your seventh and 10th turn of conversation was with the model, because it obviously had the prior turns of interaction in its working memory.”

“And actually that's what you now see in Bard, you know, Google's new AI. It's pretty much exactly the same model.”

“I think that the future of the web and future of digital interactions in general will be that you just ask your AI. I think everybody is going to have a personal AI, and what you really want is to make sure that it is aligned with your interests, on your team,…”

“One of the things that you and I have talked about a lot and that we're very clear on is that, you know, we don't want to let pie be used for romantic relationships, right?”

“And we also just announced our new funding round where we've been lucky enough to be able to raise 1.3 billion dollars. And we'll be using that to build the largest super cluster in the world, which we'll have up and running by the autumn of this year.”

“If this was true for AI, that is both going to be the most incredible boost to creativity and productivity in the history of our species, but also potentially an incredibly destabilizing time. Because anybody who has an agenda, who wants to amplify their narra…”

“And I think that it's going to take us another two or three years to really iron out these weaknesses in the models.”

“I think in a weird way, it's over rotated the entire field on one aspect of intelligence, which is generality, you know, and I think open AI and then subsequently anthropic and others have taken up this default sort of mantra that like it, all that matters is …”

“I think the key element that is going to really unlock this field Is actually going to be the router in the middle of a series of different systems which are specialized, some of which don't even look like AI at all. They might just be traditional pieces of so…”

“While I was there, sort of in the last year in twenty-twenty-one, I tried pretty hard to get things launched at Google. We were all kind of banging on the table, being like, come on, this is the future, and you know obviously David Luan from Adept was also in …”

“Conversation is the future interface. And Google is already a conversation. It's just an appallingly painful one, right? You say something to Google, it gives you an answer in 10 blue links. You say something about those 10 blue links by clicking on it. You, i…”

“The problem with what Google has sort of, I guess, in a way accidentally done to the internet is that it has basically. Shaped content production in a way that optimizes for ads. And everything is now SEO'd to within an inch of its life.”

“Building on all of that, we think that Pi, I think that everyone in the next few years is going to have their own personal AI, right?”

“So I really don't subscribe to this view that there's going to be like one or five AIs. I think this is like completely misguided and fundamentally wrong. There are going to be hundreds of millions of AIs or billions of AIs, and they'll be aligned to individua…”

“We run. Some of the largest language models in the world. We have state of the art performance across many of the main benchmarks with the exception of coding, because we don't have PI generate code and it's not a priority for us.”

“And I think in some of the rhetoric in the last few years, you can feel that there's a little bit of like you know, a kind of creeping assumption that it is inevitable that These kinds of systems exceed our control and our capability and move beyond us as a sp…”

“Well, I think what he was referring to is that we have so much inference demand that we're power constrained on inference. We're not power constrained, at least from the Microsoft AI perspective on training chips. And obviously my team, you know, is mostly foc…”

“The cost per token has come down a thousand X in the last two years.”

“We are right at the very beginning of the emergence of these very differentiated personalities, because all these models are going to have great expertise. They're gonna have great capabilities, and they'll be able to take similar actions like you've, we've ju…”

“This orchestrator, which under the hood uses four different models from the major providers, can actually improve the accuracy of each of the individual models and collectively all of them together by a very significant degree, about 10% or so.”

“The dialogic nature means that a human doctor can follow along and actually learn In a very transparent way. It's almost like having an interpretability mechanism inside the black box of the LLM, because you can see its thinking process in real time.”