The Ledger, every show

“But that was only meaningful when the ingredients for how to build artificial general intelligence, or ASI were not known. I think now they're known, and so.”

“What's interesting is that the Physics Nobel Prize was given to something that has not really had that much impact in physics, but it is but I still buy it because it's kind of there's a physics smell to the breakthroughs that led to you know, these systems li…”

“I do think there'll be a general super intelligence, but I think that it won't be one lab that has built it, but it'll be kind of the plurality, like the collection of all intelligences will be a general super intelligence.”

“Within enterprises, when you know, they're adopting coding tools and you see the impact that this is having on their actual productivity. And I think it's much lower than people expect. So it's in fact, it's sometimes negative, sometimes negligible.”

“To me, it seems like really, 20% of the problem is teaching these agents how to act, and it's more or less solved.”

“Our thought was that this was the time where you can actually start a you know, a generational frontier lab that does not need to be coupled to a, you know, to a big cloud provider because if you do it right, you'll actually be able to generate you know, suffi…”

“There's no such thing as generalization. There's just bringing the test distribution into train.”

“And so the way these language models are going to interact with any piece of software, not just Software engineering software, like Salesforce and other CRMs and creative tools and so forth. The majority of those interactions are going to be through function c…”

“What we're going to get to if we don't solve the comprehension piece is basically L-nine engineers with amnesia.”

“Like if you really solve this oracle for organizations just for coding, you've basically built all the capabilities you need to have super intelligence.”

“When you train large language models with reinforcement learning, they become jagged in the sense that they become good at what you wanted them to be good at. And there are some generalization capabilities, but they're much weaker than people think.”

“And that the combination of this you know, L-Nine with Amnesia and the L-Nine's context core will together, you know, that will become the principal level engineer, the AI engineer. And so I actually think that that's not too far away. That's I would say in, y…”

“We win over candidates over OpenAI and Anthropic Meta, DeepMind regularly.”

“Later this year we'll be shipping things that I don't think anyone ever thought a startup could do. Like, I think that we're going to be shipping some things on the research side that I think everyone thinks you need to be a giant lab with a 100,000 GPUs to do…”

“You can't operate at a hundred X less capital than a frontier lab, but you can operate at, say, 10 X, like an order of magnitude less capital when you're really focused.”

“The next paradigm, and effectively the final paradigm that we need to have in place before a, you know, what people used to call AGI, or now I think the goalposts have shifted to ASI, is reached, is just figuring out how to scale reinforcement learning on top …”

“Now, that's great, but I think the downside of that is that does humanity's last exam actually matter in any meaningful way for an end user? And I would argue that some weak correlation, but the answer is most likely no.”

“The important part, I think, is to be able to tweak every part of the system from, you know, the product features to the agent design to the model training in order to build the best overall system. And if you are capped in which parts you can change, like if …”

“We're in this brief period in history right now where the RL flops are still manageable. Like you can really have a best in class product if you're focused. And yes, you'll need to put, you know, you still need a decent amount of GPUs, but from a flops perspec…”

“The reward problem in itself is at the time I called, I thought it was AGI complete. Now I'd say it's ASI complete, but by the time you have a neural network that can accurately verify any outcome, that is probably a super intelligence.”

“I think that where I think we'll be in a couple of years from now is that there'll be kind of definitive super intelligence in, Some meaningful categories of work.”

“And then from the startup side, I think it actually puts companies that Are in these kind of critical path categories like search and coding in a pretty existential place if they can't build their own frontier models. Not all frontier labs will be able to vert…”

“When we're generating synthetic data there is the only scalable path is really reinforcement learning.”

“The reason code is special is if you believe that the way a language model will interact with almost any piece of software is through function calls and therefore code, then if you build very capable reasoners coding reasoners that, you know, are sort of purpo…”

“Actually going in and deploying it and building it for, you know, specific categories of work. There are going to be a lot of product and kind of research innovation specific to those categories that will probably make this a multi-decade thing. So I don't thi…”

“I think coding is this era as well. This one I think will take longer than people thought as well, because again, enterprise is organizational problems. There's much different than The benchmarks that we have today, but I think it will be one of the faster one…”

“Our core belief is that if you solve this problem, you solve the autonomous coding problem and build a super intelligent coding agent, that that thing will lead to super intelligence more broadly.”

“In the era of language models, I don't think you'll be able to train superintelligence from scratch.”

“Over the coming years, there'll be more kind of AI friendly or language model friendly UIs. And what's friendly to a language model is, is code. So the way a model will be doing work, not just for coding and software engineering, Is by basically making functio…”

“You can imagine you know, the world converging on a few companies have really powerful coding models. They basically release a nerfed version of that to the public at large, and basically have a competitive advantage by having, you know, a super intelligent co…”

“We realized that probably the form factor of an organizational super intelligence, like the thing that's really gonna help organizations get a lot of stuff done, is probably gonna be something like an oracle. Like an oracle that understands the entire organiza…”

“Superintelligence in these contexts of the large lab context is actually just being used synonymously with what AGI used to be used for.”

“Every coding tool today is focused on the code generation piece”

“If you actually hover over a shoulder of an engineer at any large organization, or even a startup with a really sizable code base, and you look at what they do, you'll find that a minority of their time is actually spent coding. Like, 70% of the time they're D…”

“It'll grab it, and then that's all you have, and most likely, for any meaningful query it will not have given you the information that you need to actually go do the task. So rag agents are actually, are pretty weak.”

“That's basically where Agentex search is today, where you're going and you're kind of exploring, and you have this tiny flashlight, and you have to then remember everything in your head, and obviously that's a first form of comprehension, but it's also a prett…”

“I think what, I think coding intelligence that builds better coding intelligence will Make algorithms more efficient, basically.”

“If you play with one of these base models before they're aligned, they're really useless. They're, they are, they feel like stochastic parrots. They don't follow instructions.”

“It's really easy to switch around between various different coding providers today because they don't really integrate deeply, and so, you know, you can try cursor today, you can try cloud code tomorrow, you can switch, you know, to windsurf, and there's reall…”

“There is in some sense, we are probably at a L four kind of junior, junior engineer level of autonomy, which is pretty incredible.”

“To some extent super intelligence in that sense has already been achieved. So right, AlphaGo was a super intelligent system, and there were other systems during that time that were built that were super intelligent in narrow domains.”

“As long as you pick a category that I would say is kind of big enough to be ASI complete I think, and this is kind of our approach at Reflection, is it makes a lot more sense to be focused and co-design those two things together, the product of the research.”

“Dota V and AlphaStar were near super intelligent systems, and if OpenAI and DeepMind had sunk more compute into them, they would have definitely become super intelligent.”

“I don't think it's guaranteed that a big lab can, you know, buy their way to the end user because the fundamental problems of your, you know, research team being far away from your product team will still be true. And the company having, you know, a hundred di…”

“Giannis and I led a lot of the work for post-training and kind of RL check for Gemini, and Giannis being my co-founder, and when we shipped Gemini One, we just realized that the models, like, models that were basically at GPT-IV level or above, were capable en…”

“Our belief as a company is that the correct wedge in, the correct starting point to this entire problem is decoding agent, because it's already, you know, software engineering is already what I would call kind of ergonomic for a language model.”

“A language model, for example, has no prior for a mouse movement. It, you know, it really never seen that on the internet, but it has a really strong prior for code. So out of the two categories, say web browsing and coding, coding is the only one that is actu…”

“The things that language models understand best tend to be the kind of piece of code that are represented on the internet. You know, maybe I don't think a lot of people would be happy with this, that maybe the kind of fundamental language of AI becomes Python …”