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20VC Assertion Supported
Steckman: Anduril builds cruise missile airframes like bathtubs using contract manufacturers
“The cruise missile we build, the actual airframe is built like you build a bathtub. And so we can take advantage of tons of contract manufacturers in the United States that can actually build a bathtub, right?”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 33:23 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Steckman: Defense founders must defer ethical rules to democratically elected governments
“If you work in defense, and if you start a defense company, your moral compass tends to be pretty clear on this question, which is, we have a democratically elected set of governments that represent the US, the Alliance, NATO, all of the countries participatin…”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 35:46 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Steckman: Legacy defense primes get paid to fix mistakes, unlike Anduril
“A lot of our competitors, the really big ones, if they make a mistake, They get paid to fix it. I think if we make a mistake, we lose money, and we lose contracts, so.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 46:02 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Steckman: Defense tech companies require a large US presence to survive
“You basically can't have a defense company if you don't have a large US business.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 9:08 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Steckman: Few military drone programs generate enough revenue for standalone businesses
“There are very few drone programs that would create a material enough amount of revenue to actually create a real business.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 0:27 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC What-if
Steckman: Anduril missed offensive cyber warfare seven years ago but will enter
“We should have moved into that seven years ago and been the first in it. We weren't big enough probably to really even understand it seven years ago, but like in hindsight, it was kind of obvious. You know, we'll, we'll probably try and play some catch up here…”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 17:45 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Steckman: Defense startups must win one of two major government programs to survive
“So in every technology class in defense, there's probably one, sometimes two actual programs that if you capture them, you have a business. And if you don't, you have no business.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 22:31 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Steckman: Only one drone startup will ultimately win the market
“There'll be one that wins, right? It's going to be really hard to pick it, I think is the problem. Like, but there will definitely be one winner.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 26:02 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Steckman: Defense hardware must use commercial supply chains over legacy defense manufacturing
“We have to be able to build something that takes advantage of commercial supply and commercial manufacturing techniques as opposed to aerospace and defense supply and technique.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 32:36 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Steckman: Defense startups myopically focused on the Ukraine war will fail
“If those companies are myopically focused on that conflict, they will not have a business coming out the other end.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 37:25 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Anduril Supplies Key Air Defense Systems Countering Shahed Drones
“We're one of the principal systems to defend against that threat in the Middle East.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 39:05 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Steckman: High Multiples Keep VC Defense Tech Startups Unaffordable for Anduril
“There are lots of VC companies I would love to buy if I had an unlimited checkbook, but right now the multiples today are, they put it out of reach for us.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 40:23 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Steckman: Anduril is valued at 10 to 14 times forward revenue
“I think we're like, what? 10 or 14 X forward. Something like that.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 41:37 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Steckman: Public status brings unique trust in national security sector
“When you are a public company, there is an additional level of trust That is afforded to you that you don't have when you're a private company.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 46:40 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2028
Steckman: Anduril is a couple of years away from an IPO
“Still a couple of years out, but we're close. We're in the window.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 47:03 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Steckman: Autonomous systems will eventually replace every single military mission
“I believe that that is true in the long run. I also believe that we're not even close to where a lot of people think we are on it. Like I think we're still in the early days on, on tons of this tech. But as time goes to infinity, like absolutely every single m…”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 52:30 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Steckman: Defense startups fail if they lack any of 12 core disciplines
“The challenge becomes in defense that if you're missing any of the 12 different types of disciplines it takes to really capture a large program, you will fail.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 4:51 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Steckman: Tech hubris leads defense startups to reinvent existing solutions
“There's too much hubris, I think, in the technology market that you know, as high tech people, we can do everything better than everybody else. I think that causes some companies to think they have an idea that isn't actually an idea because it already exists,…”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 7:23 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Steckman: A single large contract does not equal an enduring defense company
“I think there's in many cases an overestimation of addressable market, where like actually what ultimately they're going after is a very small sliver of a problem which Might materialize in a single large contract, but a single large contract is not an endurin…”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 8:22 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Steckman: Anduril's $20B government contract contains no upfront obligated funds
“Think about this as like a credit card limit. So the government has said up to twenty billion dollars they can spend on a class of Andurl's commercial technology. There's no obligated money”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 10:33 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Anduril's First Major Contract Was Defense-as-a-Service for US Special Forces
“And actually one of our first major contracts was with US special forces for all of their counter UAS systems. That started as an as a service contract where they weren't buying hardware. They weren't buying software. They were literally buying a service that …”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 14:01 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Steckman: Anduril maintains 40% plus gross margin across its portfolio
“As a business, we run a sort of 40% plus gross margin across the board.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 34:25 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Steckman: Anduril intends to target defense space market gap below SpaceX
“It's a huge open hole, I think, in the market that is something we definitely would run at.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 43:36 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Steckman: Only a quarter of Anduril's 20 products are cash-flow positive
“So I mentioned we have 20 products and only about a quarter of those are in any kind of rate production and throwing money back to the business. Everything else is in low rate or development, meaning they're losing money.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 47:20 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Anduril halves traditional defense product development time to 3-5 years
“So in defense, typically in a traditional Sort of product curve at seven to 10 years. We're doing it in three to five, which is kind of part of the magic of the company, and the thing we've become known, known for with our customers is, like, you're effectivel…”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 48:03 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Steckman: Anduril spent over $100M developing Roadrunner before generating revenue
“So Roadrunner is a moderately sized air defense kinetic intercept system. And that's, you're over a hundred million easily before you're generating revenue.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 48:43 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Steckman: Anduril spent up to $40M on a failed early aerial project
“We tried to early on build a pretty sophisticated aerial system. We didn't have the core building blocks. We didn't have the core team. I think we were twenty million or forty million in before we kind of realized that it was a scrap.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 49:43 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Steckman: Palmer Luckey's brand is uniquely valuable for establishing trust in defense
“I do. Unequivocally. In defense, anything highly regulated, right? Every single thing is a headwind. And so the main thing you do to cut through headwind is you try and establish trust relationships with people who matter. I think Palmer is an N of one when it…”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 56:09 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Steckman: Defense tech success requires blending commercial tech outsiders and industry insiders
“Founding teams, one of the most important things in, in defense is some of them can be outsiders and, you know, brilliant technologists and thinkers. It does take a lot of inside knowledge and I think that one of the things we got right and keep getting right …”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 3:36 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Steckman: Defense startups cannot require prior experience winning large government programs
“There aren't actually a lot of big programs in government, and so one of the things you don't need to necessarily look for, I think what you would, in a traditional hiring process, you would look for someone who has demonstrated the ability to Capture a large …”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 5:25 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Steckman: Government contract success relies on finding a single internal champion
“All of these things can be characterized by Like a singular champion on the other side of the table that gets it, that believes in it, that wants to shepherd it. Actually you mentioned Shyam. He talks a lot about this kind of like heroism. Like it actually com…”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 27:50 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Anduril took 24 months from concept to fielding Roadrunner
“Roadrunner was, I think, 24 months from, like, a back of a napkin drawing to a fielded system.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 48:25 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Steckman: Anduril's leadership team remains unchanged since founding
“There's kind of some magic in the fact that it's the same leadership team today as it was when we started the company.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 2:38 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Contradicted
Steckman: United States accounts for 50% of total global defense spending
“50% of defense spending is in the US and 50% is in the rest of the world.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 9:12 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Steckman: Anduril operates 20 distinct P&L business units
“We have 20 different P&Ls at the company all that are going after different parts of the defense apparatus that take a lot of these fundamental Technologies that we build and kind of piece them together in different ways.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 23:27 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Steckman: Anduril is developing missile systems targeted for 2035 deployment
“Where I'm building missile systems that might only field in 2035, right?”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 36:39 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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