The Ledger, every show

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.

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ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Collison: Stripe data shows remote work harms early-career employee productivity
“It is not good for early career people. We can actually measure it in our productivity data before the whole discussion about remote work happened during COVID, and it's bad from a work point of view.”
John Collison Feb 23, 2025 ▶ 10:29 Remote Work Under Fire: All-In Podcast Unpacks Jamie Dimon’s Leaked Rant!
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
John Collison: Remote work hurts early-career productivity, according to Stripe data
“The thing that we have seen, and interestingly, we measured this before COVID, because we were doing a lot of remote hiring, and we wanted to see how much we should lean into it, is that it is not good for early career people. We can actually measure it in our…”
John Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 30:54 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Collison: Bitcoin consumes 40 times more power than the Visa network
“Bitcoin is kind of inefficient enough that it uses 40 times the power of the Visa network, despite kind of a much lower throughput than the Visa network.”
John Collison Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 15:33 a16z Podcast | The Evolution of Payments
CHEEKY PINT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: High-Agency People Will Win From AI Advances, Low-Agency Will Lose
“My biggest takeaway from all this Has been that around agency where I feel like high agency people are the winners of the advances in AI and within organizations, low agency people will lose out.”
John Collison Apr 14, 2026 ▶ 59:13 The world of voice AI, with Mati Staniszewski of ElevenLabs
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Collison: High-agency, non-expert engineers are ascendant at Stripe thanks to AI
“High work ethic people. Who maybe weren't the best engineers you know, previously or now, those people are massively ascendant, as far as I can tell, because they suddenly got the exoskeleton, you know, and like, they always have the ideas as to what we should…”
John Collison Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 1:27:58 Bret Taylor of Sierra on AI agents, outcome-based pricing, and the OpenAI board
CHEEKY PINT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: Stablecoin issuers will buy large amounts of US debt and strengthen dollar
“Stablecoin issuers will, in a similar way, be large buyers of U.S. Debt and create more dollar strength.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 19:46 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Supported
Collison: GDPR reduced profits for small European tech firms by up to 12%
“GDPR alone is estimated to have reduced profits for small tech firms in Europe by up to 12%.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 24:43 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: Agents will likely drive most internet transactions soon
“In our view, agents will most likely soon be responsible for most internet transactions, and will likely need blockchains that support more than a million, or maybe even more than a billion, transactions a second.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 11:10 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Crypto transactions will soon be a large part of Stripe's business
“Crypto enabled transactions are going to be a very large part of the economy and just stripes business in the relatively near future.”
John Collison Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 1:07:21 Stablecoin special: Zach Abrams (Bridge) and Henri Stern (Privy)
CHEEKY PINT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stablecoins will grow 100x from their current scale, predicts John Collison
“People still have no idea how big stable coins are going to be. And I think they discount us because it feels like it's a lot of hype right now, but we're going to look back when stable coins are a hundred times bigger and just think of this moment as so cute.”
John Collison Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 1:14:32 Stablecoin special: Zach Abrams (Bridge) and Henri Stern (Privy)
CHEEKY PINT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: AI platforms will become the new aggregation layer, disrupting legacy aggregators
“It feels like step one is, that's going to happen with agentic commerce is, I feel like existing aggregators, if just aggregation is their raison d'etre, then they're going to have a lot of, ah, questions that they need to answer, because ChatGPT and the AI ap…”
John Collison Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 38:40 Tobi Lütke is still captivated by internet commerce, 20 years later
CHEEKY PINT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: Stablecoin checkout is a few years from mass-market adoption
“I think there'll be something similar with stable coins where they'll be offered at the point of checkout way before people Become super familiar with them, but we're probably only a small number of years away from some mass market.”
John Collison Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 58:45 Tobi Lütke is still captivated by internet commerce, 20 years later
ALL-IN Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2028
John Collison: Stripe is profitable on a fully loaded GAAP net income basis
“We are profitable, yeah. And profitable on like a fully loaded gap net income basis, not like a community adjusted EBITDA stuff.”
John Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 1:39:29 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
a16z Assertion Contradicted
Collison: Bank credit card fraud models rely on 1960s-era neural networks
“And if you look at how the fraud systems that actually back your credit card work today, what happens is, you know, so you have a chaser bank for America or whatever credit card. And there's a set of neural networks that were trained and you're like, oh, cool.…”
John Collison Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:41 a16z Podcast | The Evolution of Payments
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stripe processes $1.4 trillion in 2024 payment volume, up 38%
“Businesses on Stripe generated 1.4 trillion in total payment volume in 2024, up 38% from the prior year and reaching a scale equivalent to around 1.3% of global GDP.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 0:00 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Collison: 2025 AI agent startup launches on Stripe will eclipse 2024's 700+
“More than 700 AI agent startups launched on Stripe last year, a figure that we expect will be substantially eclipsed by the total in 2025.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 9:01 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Collison: Stripe reached $1.9T in volume in 2025, up 34%
“Last year, businesses running on Stripe generated 1.9 trillion in total volume, up 34% from 24, an equivalent to roughly 1.6% of global GDP.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 0:17 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Partly supported
Collison: Tech and data center capex drove nearly half of 2025 US GDP growth
“Economy-wide, demand for software, computers, and data center investment drove nearly half of all U.S. GDP growth in 2025, and will likely soon be a majority of all U.S. Growth.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 3:29 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Collison: Startups reaching $10M ARR in 3 months doubled in Stripe's 2025 cohort
“The number of companies reaching ten million in ARR within three months of launch was double that of the 24 cohort.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 4:06 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Supported
Collison: 2025 stablecoin payment volume doubled to $400B, 60% B2B
“In 25, the price of Bitcoin dropped precipitously and is now 50% down from October, but stablecoin payments volume doubled to around 400,000,000,060 percent of which is estimated to represent B to B payments.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 9:14 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Supported
Collison: Klarna is the first bank to launch a stablecoin on Tempo
“Klarna, whose CEO was once a self-proclaimed crypto skeptic, became the first bank to launch a stablecoin, Klarna USD, on the Tempo testnet, using Bridge's open issuance to facilitate faster and cheaper cross-border settlement.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 11:49 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Partly supported
Collison: US small business loan approvals fell to 41% in 2025
“Only 41% of small business loan applications were approved in the US last year, down from 50% in 2015.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 13:20 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Supported
Collison: Stripe Capital recipients grew 27 percentage points faster over one year
“Businesses that received and accepted capital offers grew, on average, 27 percentage points faster over the following year than the otherwise equivalent businesses who didn't.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 14:17 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: AI agents will probably eliminate distinctions between customer service and SDR roles
“Maybe what we're describing is a bunch of swim lanes Have been established by random accidents of software and org charts and everything like that. You do customer service. When people come with a query as of a non-commercial nature, you are an SDR. You know, …”
John Collison Nov 18, 2025 ▶ 53:51 Satya Nadella describes how lessons from Microsoft’s history apply to today’s boom
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Collison: Elon Musk's companies have historically been unusually capital-efficient
“Elon's companies have always been very capital efficient and like build a bad one and then build a good one. And so the boring company bought a commercial tunnel boring machine before they started developing their own. Tesla had the master plan where they buil…”
John Collison Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 1:48:07 Marc Andreessen and Charlie Songhurst on the past, present, and future of Silicon Valley
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Collison: Stripe is shipping 30 percent more code thanks to AI tooling
“I think at Stripe we, ah, we're, we found we're shipping 30% more code.”
John Collison Aug 29, 2025 ▶ 19:19 A conversation with Lovable CEO Anton Osika
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: Software will evolve to create a unified revenue platform category
“The way we see the world, there is no revenue platform right now, and if you look at all the products that we have been building, better analytics on the revenue data that you have in Stripe, a source of truth billing system, things like that, it's moving in t…”
John Collison Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:20 a16z Podcast | The Evolution of Payments
CHEEKY PINT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: Every AI product will need subscriptions plus overage payments
“I think every AI product will need, you know, they probably want to have some all you can eat, most of what you can eat, subscription with limits, and then the ability to pay for overages.”
John Collison Apr 14, 2026 ▶ 51:27 The world of voice AI, with Mati Staniszewski of ElevenLabs
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Supported
Collison: Sportsbooks take ~10% whereas prediction markets take ~1%
“The rate for sports betting companies is around 10%, and the order of magnitude for prediction markets is, you know, one percent or a few points.”
John Collison Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 56:05 Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Contradicted
Collison: Mainstream AI chat interfaces still lack persistent memory in 2026
“Still in twenty-twenty-six, if you open a new Gemini chat, or if you open a new ChatGPG chat, it's basically a blank slate. There's no memory.”
John Collison Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 1:25 Bret Taylor of Sierra on AI agents, outcome-based pricing, and the OpenAI board
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stripe's revenue and finance automation suite reaches $500M run rate
“Stripe's revenue and finance automation suite, with billing at its core, has now passed a five hundred million dollar revenue run rate.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 1:26 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Half of Fortune 100 and one-sixth of new Delaware corporations use Stripe
“From top corporate leaders, half of the Fortune 100 uses Stripe. To hyper-growth companies, we count 80% of the Forbes Cloud 178% of the Forbes AI-fifty as customers. To newly formed upstarts, one in six new Delaware corporations incorporates with Stripe Atlas…”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 1:47 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stripe-processed revenue is growing seven times faster than S&P 500
“In aggregate, the revenue that businesses process on Stripe is growing seven times faster than that of all companies in the S&P 500.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 2:09 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Supported
Collison: Cursor reached over $100M ARR in just three years
“Cursor, the AI-powered coding assistant, raced to over one hundred million dollars in recurring revenue in just three years.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 6:37 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Supported
Collison: Lovable hit $17M ARR in 3 months, Bolt $20M ARR in 2 months
“We're also seeing the likes of Lovable, which hit seventeen million dollars ARR in just three months, Bolt, achieving twenty million ARR in two months, and Kodo, radically lower the barrier for turning software ideas into working applications.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 6:43 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Open · timeframe Mar 2025
Collison: 60% of US small businesses use vertical SaaS platforms
“Today, 60% of all small businesses in America use vertical SaaS platforms to help run their business.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 9:54 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Collison: Stripe has seen over 92% of processed credit cards before
“When a credit card is used for a payment, there is a greater than 92% chance that Stripe has encountered the same card before.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 14:22 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Supported
Collison: SpaceX uses Bridge for Starlink fund repatriation in emerging markets
“SpaceX uses Bridge to repatriate funds from Starlink sales in Argentina, Nigeria, and other markets.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 17:23 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Supported
Collison: Stablecoin volumes doubled year-over-year as active wallets hit 40M
“Stablecoin transaction volumes more than doubled between Q four, 20, 23 and Q four, 20, 24. And the number of monthly active stablecoin wallets has now reached forty million.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 18:45 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Supported
Collison: An estimated 99% of stablecoin balances are USD-based
“We further note with interest that despite regulatory uncertainty in the United States, early stablecoin adoption has shown a notable US dollar preference, with an estimated 99% of stablecoin balances being USD-based.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 20:22 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Supported
Collison: US productivity reached $104/hr versus $85/hr in Europe
“While the economies of the US and Europe were similarly productive in 1990, there has since been a stark divergence, with US productivity per hour works reaching 104 dollars, as compared with a plateau of something closer to 85 dollars per hour in Europe.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 21:02 Stripe’s 2024 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Collison: Stripe powers over 5M businesses, 90% of Dow Jones
“Our programmable financial services now power more than five million businesses directly or via platforms, including all the top AI companies, many of the largest blue chip companies, 90% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, most of the biggest tech companies,…”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 0:27 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Collison: 25% of Delaware corporations are formed via Stripe Atlas
“25% of all Delaware corporations are now created with Stripe Atlas.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 0:46 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Collison: Stripe remained robustly profitable throughout 2025
“Stripe remained robustly profitable in 25, allowing us to continue investing heavily in product development, with over 350 product updates over the last year, as well as acquisitions.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 1:08 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: Stripe's revenue suite on track to hit $1B ARR
“Metronome joins our revenue suite, comprising Stripe billing, invoicing, tax, and more, Which is on track to hit an annual run rate of a billion dollars this year.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 1:31 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Supported
Collison: Most profitable third of US public companies holds two-thirds of market cap
“Today, the most profitable third of publicly listed companies in the United States accounts for two-thirds of the total market capitalization, the highest share since data began in 1963.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 2:17 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Contradicted
Collison: GitHub pushes jumped 41% between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025
“Pushes to GitHub, which grew roughly 10 to 12% in prior years, jumped 41%. Between Q. Three, 24 and Q. Three, 25.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 4:30 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Collison: 30% of Stripe cross-border revenue is outside top 10 economies
“Of businesses on stride that earn most of their revenue internationally, 30% of that revenue comes from countries that are neither their home market nor one of the top 10 global economies.”
John Collison Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 7:07 Stripe’s 2025 annual letter
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