The Ledger, every show

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.

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a16z Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Isaacman: NASA astronauts will build President Trump's moon base
“When we return to the moon, America will not look down on the prime lunar real estate while our rivals occupy it. NASA astronauts will be on the surface, building President Trump's moon base, and we will realize the scientific, economic, and national security …”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 6:38 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isaacman: China's moon schedule is potentially within a year of NASA's
“Regardless if we had a rival that is, again, within potentially a year of our schedule on this, it is still, the changes we announced last week is still in the correct direction.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 21:05 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Isaacman: NASA will return to Moon before end of Trump's term
“NASA has stated we will achieve the national imperative to return, ah, to the moon and establish an enduring presence before the end of President Trump's term.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 4:07 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Isaacman: NASA will return to Moon before Trump's term ends in 2028
“We're going to return to the moon before end of President Trump's term. We're going to build a moon base so we can stay.”
Jared Isaacman Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 15:31 Why this Billionaire Just Took Over NASA · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Partly supported
Isaacman: NASA leadership failures, not Boeing, caused Starliner issues
“I didn't blame Boeing. I blamed leadership failures and poor decision-making at NASA to make sure our culture is going the right direction.”
Jared Isaacman Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 21:21 Why this Billionaire Just Took Over NASA · Joe Lonsdale
Isaacman: NASA will launch every 10 months, scrapping Artemis III plan
“We are going to get in a cadence of launching every 10 months. We are going to add a new mission. You know, Artemis III is supposed to land on the moon in, in, in, in, in twenty-twenty-eight. Not doing that anymore. We're going to launch Artemis III in twenty-…”
Jared Isaacman Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 22:54 Why this Billionaire Just Took Over NASA · Joe Lonsdale
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Isaacman: NASA's SLS rocket costs $4.5B per launch and faces an expiration date
“This rocket built on 60 year old technology that's four and a half billion dollars of launch has an expiration date.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 45:40 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
ALL-IN Opinion
Isaacman: Mining Mars propellant for SpaceX's Starship return requires 'a hundred consecutive miracles'
“Even when a Starship gets to Mars, you're betting on, like, you know, a hundred consecutive miracles happening to top, to mine propellant there and bring it back.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 46:31 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
ALL-IN Opinion
Isaacman agrees his NASA nomination withdrawal was likely aimed at Elon Musk
“I mean, you know, people can draw their own conclusions, but I think the direction that people are going is or thinking on this seems, seems to check out to me.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 53:39 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
a16z Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Isaacman: NASA will launch moon rockets every few months, not years
“We are gonna get back into the habit of launching moon rockets in months, not years.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 10:24 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Prediction Held up
Isaacman: NASA targeting new SLS mission in 2027 and lunar landings in 2028
“We are standardizing the SLS rocket, increasing launch cadence from years to months. We're inserting a new mission in 20, 27 to buy down risk and increase confidence for lunar landing attempts in 20, 28.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 5:05 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isaacman: NASA loses $1.4B annually to staffing contractor markups
“About 1.4 billion a year is lost in science and discovery. Because someone, 30 years ago or so, said there's these artificial hiring ceilings on civil servants, so 75% of the workforce became contractors.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 11:40 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Insight
Isaacman: NASA Should Assume Liability for Launching Space Nuclear Propulsion
“NASA can do the What probably others wouldn't want to take on the liability of launching a nuclear reactor with power and propulsion so we can get to Mars someday and actually bring our astronauts back home.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 13:02 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Prediction Open · timeframe May 2029
Isaacman: NASA to embed engineers at contractors and demand monthly CEO briefings
“We are going to embed responsible engineers in every one of the prime contractors, every one of the subcontractors that has components on the critical path. CEOs of these companies are going to brief me every 30 days on how they're going to meet our timelines”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 16:31 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Isaacman: NASA will maintain SLS rocket through at least Artemis V or VI
“We've got Artemis through at least, or SLS through at least Artemis five or six. We're gonna make the most of it, and then we will continue to evolve our, ah, our architecture until we are watching, ah, NASA astronauts going to and from the moon measured in mo…”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 17:24 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Isaacman: US Will Deploy Nuclear Power in Space Before Term Ends
“I promised him America will get underway in space on nuclear power before the end of his term.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 22:16 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Isaacman: Astronauts Will Land on Mars Within Our Lifetime
“And, look, I think, like, we're gonna see astronauts on Mars in our lifetime.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 22:46 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Isaacman: NASA spent $200M last year on a canceled program
“We spent two hundred million dollars last year on a canceled program.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 23:03 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isaacman: NASA's $25B annual budget is fully sufficient
“Is twenty-five billion dollars a year plus the plus-up that came from one big beautiful bill enough to get the job done? Yeah, sure as hell is.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 23:37 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Isaacman: Mars soil samples would reveal direct evidence of past microbial life
“I would say that if we went and brought the samples back from Mars which is a program that people have been asking about for a while, was canceled in the last administration because it was super expensive I think the odds are extremely good you'd have direct e…”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 26:26 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Isaacman: Humans will visit Mars before point-to-point Earth rocket travel succeeds
“I would almost guarantee you we will get humans to Mars. And back before, like, point-to-point rocket travel is a big thing here on Earth.”
Jared Isaacman Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 12:04 Why this Billionaire Just Took Over NASA · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Isaacman: Sending humans to Mars will be possible within years
“Within, within years, we'll be able to send humans to Mars. It's bringing them back.”
Jared Isaacman Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 19:19 Why this Billionaire Just Took Over NASA · Joe Lonsdale
Isaacman: Nuclear startups prioritizing space over terrestrial demand commit malpractice
“If I was on the board of any nuclear power startup right now, I'd be like, this is malpractice for you to put even a minute of time in space when we've got unlimited terrestrial demand.”
Jared Isaacman Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 28:55 Why this Billionaire Just Took Over NASA · Joe Lonsdale
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isaacman: I have only spoken to Elon Musk a couple dozen times
“I've only spoken to him you know, a couple dozen times, maybe over the years and almost entirely related to my commercial space missions, inspiration, Ford, and Polariston.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 8:19 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isaacman: US military fighter jet superiority gap vs adversaries shrank annually post-2015
“When we were replicating enemy tactics in 2015 in fighter jets, the gap between our capabilities and the bad guys was wide, and you felt very confident, and every year it started to shrink.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 17:50 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
ALL-IN What-if
Isaacman would have eliminated NASA's management layers, deputies, and review boards
“I would have deleted all that. Like not that people don't need to go, but they need to, you know, the amount of deputies, assistants, associate assistant to the deputy. The amount of committees, the meetings with 200 people on them. The review boards, like all…”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 24:55 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
ALL-IN Opinion
Isaacman: China possesses an immense second-mover advantage across all technology
“They have this immense second mover advantage that is that is crushing across all technology.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 26:44 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
ALL-IN Disclosure
Isaacman: My largest political donation ever supported Trump's inauguration
“My single largest political donation ever was to president Trump in this you know for, to support his inauguration.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 28:32 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Isaacman: NASA Mobile Launcher 2 has 500% to 600% cost overrun
“I think it's like five or 600% overrun to build the mobile launcher two for the next generation SLS.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 30:13 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
ALL-IN What-if
An earlier Trump budget release would have blocked Isaacman's committee confirmation
“And if that skinny budget had come out you know, again, a day or two earlier, I would never have made it out of committee”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 33:06 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Isaacman: NASA has paid for enough SLS hardware for 2-3 launches
“We've already got paid for enough SLS hardware that if you were to terminate for convenience now, you got enough to launch like two or three of them.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 34:41 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
ALL-IN What-if
Isaacman: Without SpaceX, the US would already be behind China in space launch
“Thank goodness for SpaceX, or we definitely be already behind in that regard.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 48:09 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
a16z Assertion Supported
Isaacman: 75% of NASA's workforce consists of contractors
“75% of your workforce, not partners, not commercial partners in this, are contractors you know, through staffing agencies, so they're all using different software tools, collaboration tools, different HR systems, talking to different prime contracts, subcontra…”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 9:31 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Insight
Isaacman: NASA Duplicating Industry Efforts Harms Talent Recruitment and Retention
“So if NASA is doing the same thing that industry is doing, we're screwing up. And that's going to make it very hard for us to recruit talent. It's going to make it very hard for us to retain talent.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 12:39 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Assertion Supported
Isaacman: SpaceX and Blue Origin scheduled uncrewed lunar lander tests for 2027
“Now, both SpaceX and Blue had to do uncrewed tests of their vehicle. It was already part of the plan. So they were planning to launch these you know, these spacecraft in in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 18:23 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Assertion Supported
Isaacman: US has committed $100B in taxpayer dollars to Moon return
“You've committed, again, a hundred billion of taxpayer dollars, you have an obligation to see it through.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 19:55 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Insight
Isaacman: NASA must target un-bankable tech then hand off to industry
“It's NASA's job that we should be doing near impossible where no other agency, organization, company could ever close a business case on because your demand signal is one, and there's probably no logical revenue model to underwrite it. That's where NASA should…”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 24:15 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
Isaacman: Point-to-point rocket travel on Earth will not happen soon
“I love the promise of point-to-point. I'm not, Sold on it happening anytime soon, because all right, now that you figured out how to go from point A to B in a rocket really fast, and it's like, now the rocket's there. What do you do with it? So now you have to…”
Jared Isaacman Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 11:35 Why this Billionaire Just Took Over NASA · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Contradicted
Isaacman: 100% of space travelers feel sick or 'different' in orbit
“A hundred percent of people feel different in space. You're either on the spectrum of like, well, five days was not great. It was like one of the worst hangovers of my life, or you're throwing up and it's not great for a while.”
Jared Isaacman Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 27:02 Why this Billionaire Just Took Over NASA · Joe Lonsdale
ALL-IN Opinion
Isaacman: NASA wastes resources on routine tasks private industry could perform
“The agency is doing a lot of littles, a lot of things that other agencies, departments, companies are capable of doing. That's not why the taxpayers fund NASA. Like NASA is funded to do the near impossible that no one else can do.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 21:24 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
ALL-IN Disclosure
Isaacman learned of Trump withdrawing his NASA nomination via a phone call
“I got a call Friday of last week that you know, the president has decided to go into a go in a different direction.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 49:04 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Isaacman: Democratic donations were already public before NASA nomination withdrawal
“I know that, like, the news talks a lot about, like, the, you know, Democratic donations is the cause. That was not a new development. You just Google, you can, they're all public.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 51:00 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
a16z Prediction Held up
Isaacman: Artemis II mission will launch around the Moon in coming weeks
“In the weeks ahead, America will send the brave Artemis II astronauts potentially farther into space than any humans have ever traveled in generations flying around the moon on a ten-day mission to test the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft befor…”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 1:15 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Assertion Supported
Isaacman: NASA is launching 'NASA Force' talent exchange initiative
“With the immense support of OPM Director Scott Cooper, we are launching NASA Force. To rebuild NASA's core competencies.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 7:26 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Insight
Isaacman: Multi-year gaps between rocket launches destroy operational competencies
“You get no muscle memory if you're launching that during every three and a half years. People are working to launch the mission, and then they're gonna move on and go somewhere else, and you have to rebuild all those competencies again.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 14:13 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
a16z Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Isaacman: NASA will launch nuclear-powered octocopter to Titan in 2028
“You've got a octocopter, nuclear-powered octocopter that we're launching to Titan in twenty-twenty-eight searching for life.”
Jared Isaacman May 6, 2026 ▶ 27:33 NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and The Race to The Moon | Jared Isaacman on The a16z Show
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Partly supported
Isaacman: Draken International Became the World's 12th Largest Air Force
“We literally bought over a hundred fighter jets. We were at one point the 12th largest air force in the world.”
Jared Isaacman Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 4:19 Why this Billionaire Just Took Over NASA · Joe Lonsdale
Isaacman: Point-to-point Earth transit requires Starship, not Falcon 9
“Falcon nine, probably not. I mean, you need Starship where your upper stage you're intending to recover.”
Jared Isaacman Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 11:27 Why this Billionaire Just Took Over NASA · Joe Lonsdale
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