The Ledger, every show
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.
shows 
every show 44 of 44
Graham Allison: No evidence Iran was about to attack U.S. or acquire nuclear weapon
“The arguments that were made that that Trump has actually repeated that Iran was about to attack us, I see no evidence for that. That Iran was about to get a nuclear weapon, I see no evidence for that. That Iran was building an ICBM that was going to attack th…”
Allison: Maintaining current US-China policies will likely result in war
“Business as usual in the relationship between the US and China will likely produce history as usual.”
Graham Allison: Israeli political involvement could trigger long-term U.S. backlash
“Interfering in American politics invites pushback. So I think this could have a big long-term negative effect, both in the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, especially younger, under younger people.”
Allison: US would lose a direct contest against China without allies
“If the U.S. Had to play this game only U.S. Versus China, I think we lose.”
Allison: Avoiding US-China war requires accommodation of China's influence
“Will there come to be some degree of difference and accommodation, if a war is to be avoided? And the answer is yes.”
Graham Allison: Trump will declare Iran conflict over before China trip
“So my Inclination, again, if we were just doing prediction markets, is that he's going to find a way to declare this over before then, because he needs a little time to get his mind set on that.”
Allison: Armed factions, not democracy, will likely succeed Iran's current regime
“If I were betting it, it'll end up that the guys with the guns will in some version be the next iteration.”
Allison: Patriot missile defense systems intended for Ukraine were redirected to the Middle East
“All the patriots that were to hope to prevent missile strikes from Russia on Ukraine are now In the Middle East.”
Graham Allison estimates a 5% chance of China attacking Taiwan through 2027
“I think the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan this year or next year or even into 28, but let me just do 26 and 27, absent some major provocation by Taiwan or some other third incident is very low. I'd put it at about where the prediction markets are, five per…”
Graham Allison: 90 to 95 nations could develop nuclear arms within two years
“Today, 90, 95 states could have nuclear weapons in a year or two if they decided to build them.”
Graham Allison: South Korea or Japan may build nuclear arsenals if trends continue
“If things are on the current path, well, maybe South Korea or Japan will have nuclear arsenal in their backyard.”
Allison: Current US wealth concentration is politically unsustainable in a democracy
“It's just not stable in a democracy. If everybody gets a vote, And if the top 10 or 20% are taking 80% or 70% of the pie, that's not Stable and sustainable, I think.”
Allison: China will become the biggest power in world history
“China is not just another great power, but it's going to be the biggest power in the history of the world.”
Allison: 90% chance no US-China war in next four years
“So if you ask me bottom line quickly, a war between the US and China in the year ahead? No. I'll give you 99% of that one. War between the US and China the next four years? No. I'd say 90%. Ah, no.”
Graham Allison: China may surpass US GDP at market exchange rates
“So it's quite plausible that China will have a larger GDP even by market exchange rates than the U.S.”
Allison: A US-China war in the next decade would spark accidentally
“If there's a war between the U.S. And China in the next year, or four years, or decade, how is it gonna happen, in my view, the most likely? Not this way. It's gonna happen the same way the last war happened.”
Allison: Tencent AI rivals GPT-4 in science but fails on political queries
“Tencent's AI machine is a pretty good competitor for GPT-IV in the science or math, but if you ask a question about, you know how do freedom-centered societies perform, it can't answer that question, because the thought of Xi Jinping says this.”
Allison: 12 of 16 historical power transitions have resulted in war
“I find 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. In 12 of the cases, the outcome was war. In four of the cases, the outcome was not war.”
Allison: Measured by PPP, China is the world's largest economy
“International economies, and I believe the best yardstick is purchasing power parity, which is also the yardstick that CIA and IMF think is the best yardstick. By that yardstick, China is currently the largest economy in the world.”
Allison: China uses trade leverage like banana imports to coerce foreign governments
“The Chinese Not only have economic power, but they exercise economic power. So when the Philippines behaves in a way they don't like, they say, I think your bananas that you're importing to China may be suspect. So they just leave them on the dock till they ro…”
Allison: U.S. and China are virtually in a cyber Cold War
“So basically, I would say, interestingly, we now virtually have a Cold War in cyber between the U.S. And China.”
Graham Allison: Kim Jong-un has over 100 nuclear warheads that reach US
“Kim Jong-un have now more than a hundred nuclear warheads and missiles that can reach the American homeland”
Allison: 12 of 16 historic rising-vs-ruling power rivalries ended in war
“In the book I look at the last 500 years, there's 16 times we've seen a rapidly rising power threaten a colossal ruling power. Think of Germany's rise, beginning of the 20th century, and the challenge to Great Britain, that became World War I. So most often, o…”
Allison: India will not displace the U.S. as Asia's dominant power
“No one imagines India is going to displace the U.S. As the predominant power in Asia.”
Allison: Chinese development banks hold four times the capital of World Bank
“So now, for development loans, the Chinese development banks, if you take the group together, including AAAB, have four times the capital of the World Bank.”
Allison: US threatened war with Canada to acquire Alaskan territory
“And so we basically threatened war with Canada unless they gave us this territory, and we took it.”
Allison: Chinese conception of international order is based on hierarchical dominance
“Chinese, ah, conception of order is extremely different than American conceptions of order. In the Chinese conception of order, you have basically a hierarchical dominance. In which somebody's at the top of the pyramid, and everybody else is, is located in rel…”
Graham Allison: China's economy is 25% larger than US by PPP
“Today, by pursuing power parity, it's 25% larger.”
Allison: US is on track to reach a resolution over Greenland
“I think we're on track to a resolution there.”
Graham Allison: 80 years without major power war is longest peace since Rome
“80 years. This is the longest piece in recorded history since Rome.”
Graham Allison: China's GDP grew from 10% to 75% of US GDP
“China was, at the beginning of the century, 10% of the U.S. GDP. Today it's three quarters of the U.S. GDP.”
Allison: US leaders in 2000 did not foresee China matching US GDP
“The idea that this might work so successfully that China could become, could come to have an economy as large as ours, Didn't occur to anybody at the time.”
Allison: China is the primary trading partner and investor across Asia
“If you go around the ASEAN countries, or you go around Northeast Asia, the principal buyer, the principal seller, the principal investor is China.”
Allison: Natural gas supplies about half of Taiwan's electricity
“About half of their electricity comes from their natural gas”
Graham Allison: China accounts for over half world's factory robots
“More than half of the working, the factory worker robots in the world are in China.”