The Ledger, every show

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.

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Y COMBINATOR Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Musk: Digital superintelligence will arrive by 2026 for sure
“Like, I think we're quite close to digital superintelligence. It may happen this year, and if it doesn't happen this year, next year for sure. Digital superintelligence is defined as smarter than any human at anything.”
Elon Musk Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 42:04 Elon Musk: Digital Superintelligence, Multiplanetary Life, How to Be Useful · Y Combinator
BG2 Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Musk: AI will perform any cognitive task within three to four years
“I mean, AI really within the next few years will be able to do any cognitive task. Like, it obviously begs the question, what are we all gonna do? You know, I'd say max three or four years. Maximum.”
Elon Musk Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 21:22 Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: Almost every conspiracy theory about Twitter turned out true
“Almost every conspiracy theory that people had about Twitter turned out to be true. So far, they've all turned out to be true, and if not, more true than people thought.”
Elon Musk Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 1:21:41 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
TBPN Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Elon Musk: Space will be cheapest location for AI compute in 2-3 years
“The lowest cost place to put AI will be space. And that'll be true within two years. Maybe three. Three at the latest.”
Elon Musk Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 9:37 Capital One Acquires Brex for $5B, Davos’s $500M business, Apple’s Siri rebuild | Diet TBPN
WTF Assertion Contradicted
Musk: X has not suspended or de-amplified any left-wing voices
“So what I've tried to do is just restore it to be balanced and centrist. So there haven't been any left-wing voices that have been suspended or, you know, banned or de-amplified or anything like that.”
Elon Musk Nov 30, 2025 ▶ 6:09 Elon Musk: A Different Conversation w/ Nikhil Kamath | Full Episode | People by WTF Ep. 16 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: AI and robotics will make working optional in under 20 years
“I think it will turn out to be true that in less than 20 years, that maybe even as little as, I don't know, 10 or 15 years the advancements in AI and robotics will Bring us to the point where working is optional.”
Elon Musk Nov 30, 2025 ▶ 31:55 Elon Musk: A Different Conversation w/ Nikhil Kamath | Full Episode | People by WTF Ep. 16 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: Money will eventually disappear as a concept due to AI
“I think long term, I think money disappears as a concept, honestly. It's kind of strange, but in, in a future where anyone can have anything I think you no longer need money as a database for labor allocation. If there's, if AI and robotics are big enough to s…”
Elon Musk Nov 30, 2025 ▶ 42:20 Elon Musk: A Different Conversation w/ Nikhil Kamath | Full Episode | People by WTF Ep. 16 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: AI, robotics, and spaceflight companies will capture almost all value
“There's an argument that companies that do AI and robotics, and maybe space flight, are gonna be overwhelming, overwhelmingly all the value, almost all the value. So the output of goods and services from AI and robotics is so high that it will dwarf everything…”
Elon Musk Nov 30, 2025 ▶ 1:27:29 Elon Musk: A Different Conversation w/ Nikhil Kamath | Full Episode | People by WTF Ep. 16 · Nikhil Kamath
TBPN Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2030
Musk: AI and humanoid robots will eliminate global poverty
“But AI and humanoid robots will actually eliminate poverty.”
Elon Musk Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 14:13 Cloudflare Outage, iMessages in Gemini 3, 𝕏 Reactions to Gemini 3 | Diet TBPN
TBPN Disclosure
Elon Musk: Tesla will probably have to build a gigantic chip fab
“I can't see any other way to get to the volume of chips that, that we're looking for. So, I think we're probably gonna have to build a gigantic chip app.”
Elon Musk Nov 8, 2025 ▶ 18:49 Elon's Trillion Dollar Pay Package | Diet TBPN
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Musk: UK released violent offenders to imprison people over social media posts
“They have, in a lot of cases, released people who have committed violent crimes in order to imprison people who have simply made posts on social media.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 42:19 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: Larry Page called him a 'speciesist' for favoring human over machine intelligence
“He called me a speciest like racist or something for being pro human intelligence instead of machine intelligence.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 53:27 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: AI could be smarter than any individual human by 2026
“I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year.”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 31:12 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: AI will probably be smarter than all humans combined by 2030
“And then probably within five, like say, 2030, probably AI is smarter than the sum of all humans.”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 31:22 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
ALL-IN Opinion
Musk: Actions of the West are indistinguishable from suicide
“Let's just say that the actions of the West are indistinguishable from suicide.”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 34:25 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
ALL-IN Opinion
Musk: Removing religion creates destructive substitutes like the 'woke mind virus'
“And if you take away religion, then I think you actually, you get something in its place which is actually worse than what was there before. I mean, it's like destructive, basically. You get like the white work mind virus filling, filling the hole that religio…”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 35:47 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
ALL-IN Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2050
Musk: Mars could become self-sustaining in roughly 25 to 30 years
“I think it can be done in, in 30 years. Provided there's an exponential increase in the tonnage to Mars, with each successive Mars transfer windows, which is every two years. So every two years, the planets align, and you can transfer to Mars. So I think in, R…”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 43:47 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
Y COMBINATOR Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2055
Musk predicts Mars will be self-sustaining within roughly 30 years
“I think we'll have enough mass transferred to Mars within like roughly 30 years to make Mars self-sustaining, such that Mars can continue to grow and prosper, even if the resupply shifts from Earth stop coming.”
Elon Musk Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 38:02 Elon Musk: Digital Superintelligence, Multiplanetary Life, How to Be Useful · Y Combinator
Y COMBINATOR Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: There is a 10% to 20% chance AI causes annihilation
“I think it most likely will be a good outcome. I guess I'd sort of agree with Jeff Hinton that maybe it's a 10 to 20% chance of annihilation. But look on the bright side, that's 80 to 90% probability of a great outcome.”
Elon Musk Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 42:43 Elon Musk: Digital Superintelligence, Multiplanetary Life, How to Be Useful · Y Combinator
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: AI and robotics will drive cost of goods toward zero
“Anything that is a manufactured good or provided service will, I think, with the advent of AI plus robotics, that the cost of goods and services will be, will Trend to zero. Like, I'm not saying it'd be actually zero, but it'll be, everyone will be able to hav…”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 39:51 Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Elon Musk claims he has done more for the environment than anyone
“It would be fair to say that, therefore, as a leader of the company, I've done more for the environment than everyone else, any single human on Earth.”
Elon Musk Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 1:29:59 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Musk: Starlink coverage in Crimea was disabled due to US sanctions
“At the time this happened, the region around, you Crimea was actually turned off. Now, the reason it was turned off was, actually, originally, was because the United States had sanctions and we're not allowed to actually, and that includes Crimea in the sancti…”
Elon Musk Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 7:11 Elon Musk: Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China, AI, & more | All-In Summit 2023
ALL-IN What-if
Musk: Would have activated Starlink in Crimea if requested by Biden
“If I had received a presidential directive to turn it on, I would have done so, because I do regard the president as the chief executive officer of the country, whether I want that position If I'm not, I still respect the office, and so, if, you know, if we've…”
Elon Musk Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 8:55 Elon Musk: Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China, AI, & more | All-In Summit 2023
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: X experienced a 60% drop in U.S. advertising revenue
“We saw, ah, a 60% drop in advertising.”
Elon Musk Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 27:26 Elon Musk: Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China, AI, & more | All-In Summit 2023
ALL-IN Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Musk: China will likely use military force to incorporate Taiwan
“If one is to take China's policy literally, and probably one should then there will be some forceful force will be used for, you know to incorporate Taiwan into China.”
Elon Musk Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 35:28 Elon Musk: Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China, AI, & more | All-In Summit 2023
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Elon Musk estimates at least 20% of Twitter accounts are bots
“I think it's some number that is probably at least four or five times that number. I'd say at if you did sort of the lowest estimate would be probably 20%. And this is a bunch of quite smart outside firms have done analysis of Twitter and looked at the sort of…”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 3:15 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
ALL-IN Opinion
Elon Musk: Twitter has a very far-left political bias
“The reality is that, that Twitter at this point, you know, has a very far left bias.”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 8:48 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
ALL-IN Opinion
Musk: Democratic Party is overly controlled by unions and trial lawyers
“The Democrat party is overly, overly controlled by the unions and by the trial lawyers, particularly the class action lawyers.”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 12:03 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
ALL-IN Disclosure
Musk refuses to pay agreed Twitter price if public filings are inaccurate
“So, in, in making the Twitter offer, I was obviously reliant upon the truth and accuracy of their public filings, and if those filings are not accurate. It's simply not, that's, that it's not, you can't pay the same price for something that is much worse than …”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 23:46 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
ALL-IN Opinion
Musk calls Tesla co-founder Martin Eberhard his worst colleague ever
“There's still this guy, Mark Eberhard, who's the worst guy I've ever worked with, who tries to claim like sold credit essentially for creating a Tesla.”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 31:15 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
ALL-IN Opinion
Elon Musk: Declining birth rates are the single biggest threat to civilization
“This, by the way, is I think the biggest single threat to civilization right now is the.”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 54:22 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
Y COMBINATOR Prediction Didn’t hold up
Musk in 2016: Human travel to Mars could happen by 2026
“It's a meaningful number of people going to Mars I. I think this is potentially something that can be accomplished in about 10 years maybe sooner , maybe nine years.”
Elon Musk Sep 15, 2016 ▶ 10:14 Elon Musk : How to Build the Future · Y Combinator
Y COMBINATOR Disclosure
Musk: OpenAI was founded to prevent concentration of advanced AI
“The reason that obviously you mean the rest of the team you know, created open AI was to help [783] Elon Musk: with the democracy, help, help spread out AI technology [787] Elon Musk: so it doesn't get concentrated in the hands of a few.”
Elon Musk Sep 15, 2016 ▶ 12:53 Elon Musk : How to Build the Future · Y Combinator
Musk: Controlling silicon intelligence a million times smarter than biology is foolish
“I'm just trying to be realistic here. If we have, if AI intelligence is vastly more, if AI is like, You know, let's say that there's a million times more silicon intelligence than there is biological. It's, I think it's, it would be foolish to assume that, tha…”
Elon Musk Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 24:07 Elon’s wildest interview yet — our reaction
WTF Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: Continued AI progress will provide any goods or services desired
“I'm confident that if AI and robotics continue to advance, which they are advancing very rapidly, Like I said, working will be optional and people will have any goods and services that they want. if you can think of it, you can have a type of thing.”
Elon Musk Nov 30, 2025 ▶ 33:34 Elon Musk: A Different Conversation w/ Nikhil Kamath | Full Episode | People by WTF Ep. 16 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: Energy generation will probably become humanity's de facto currency
“So I think that probably We probably won't have money, and probably we'll just have energy, you know, power generation as the de facto currency.”
Elon Musk Nov 30, 2025 ▶ 43:54 Elon Musk: A Different Conversation w/ Nikhil Kamath | Full Episode | People by WTF Ep. 16 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Assertion Supported
Musk: Some outsourcing companies have gamed the US H-1B visa system
“It's certainly, it would be accurate to say that there's, you know, like some of the outsourcing companies have kind of gamed the system on, on the H-one B front, and we need to stop the gaming of the system, you know”
Elon Musk Nov 30, 2025 ▶ 1:50:43 Elon Musk: A Different Conversation w/ Nikhil Kamath | Full Episode | People by WTF Ep. 16 · Nikhil Kamath
WTF Opinion
Musk: Shutting down the US H-1B visa program would be very bad
“I'm certainly not in the school of thought that we should shut down the HMB program. That's where some on the right are. I think they don't realize that that would actually be very bad.”
Elon Musk Nov 30, 2025 ▶ 1:51:04 Elon Musk: A Different Conversation w/ Nikhil Kamath | Full Episode | People by WTF Ep. 16 · Nikhil Kamath
ALL-IN Opinion
Musk: Grokopedia is more neutral, accurate, and detailed than Wikipedia
“We used that latest version of Grok to create Grokopedia which I think is much more, it's not just, I think, more neutral and more accurate than Wikipedia, but it actually has a lot more information than a Wikipedia page.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 11:40 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
ALL-IN Opinion
Musk believes X is currently the best source of truth on Earth
“We want X to be the best source of truth on the planet by far. And I think it is”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 24:08 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: Other social platforms reduced censorship after Twitter changed policy
“Once Twitter broke ranks, the others had to it became very obvious what the others were doing. And so they had to mitigate their censorship substantially as because of what Twitter did.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 39:35 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Musk: UK has 2,000 to 3,000 people imprisoned for social media posts
“My understanding is that in the UK, there's something like two or 3000 people in prison for social media posts.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 42:00 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: ISS and Glass Lewis effectively control half of stock market votes
“Effectively, Glass Lewis and ISS control the vote of half the stock market.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 45:12 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
ALL-IN Disclosure
Musk: Refuses to build Tesla robot army without voting control protection
“Let's just say I'm not going to build a robot army if I can be easily kicked out by activist investors.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 47:02 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
ALL-IN Opinion
Musk claims OpenAI released broken open-source models as a fig leaf
“They basically, they open sourced a broken, non-working version of their models as a fig leaf.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 51:13 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
ALL-IN Opinion
Musk: Google co-founder Larry Page did not take AI safety seriously
“Larry Page was not you know, he was not taking AI's safety seriously.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 52:55 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Musk: Gates claimed long-range electric semi-trucks impossible while Pepsi drove them
“He came to visit me at the Tesla Gigafactory in Austin, and was telling me that it's impossible to have a long-range, ah, semi-truck. And I was like, well, but we literally have them and you can drive them, and Pepsi is literally using them right now”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 1:10:40 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: Climate change will not be a serious issue for at least 50 years
“The reality is that, in my opinion, is that we've got at least 50 years before it's a serious issue.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 1:13:55 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
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