The Ledger, every show

“I'm no longer thinking that we need two or three orders of magnitude on the largest models to be able to You know, solve knowledge work the accounting, the legal, the code that we write.”

“I think MCP and tools are stupid.”

“We are not at a level of capability right now. That we should start restricting, you know, open models in any way, shape or form. I think it will hurt innovation if we do so.”

“I would actually go as far as saying that intelligence is going to become a commodity.”

“If you're a foundation model company, and you're not building physical infrastructure, you're cosplaying your business.”

“But the singularly collecting of skills This way by creating environments and experts we don't think will scale to artificial general intelligence.”

“A whole bunch of vertical software or vertical agents are probably gone.”

“And so to me, Elon has one full self-driving. I think it's inevitable that, that the most capable AI for full self-driving is coming out of Tesla because they've been gathering and building up this data set.”

“The research that still gets published openly, right, that doesn't get held back, that is most interesting, is all coming out of China in vast spades and majorities.”

“No, I think China is at an incredible level of capabilities and in no way should be discarded or thought of as years behind on AI or AGI progress.”

“And so this is kind of our view and our, if you extend this a couple of years out, and this is where some people will probably have objection with us. We think that this will go so far. That we will kind of recycle all of the world's real data into higher qual…”

“And the second was that reinforcement learning was going to be the biggest driver for LLM capabilities. Today, very obvious three years ago was not an opinion held or direction held at either OpenAI or Google or Anthropic or others.”

“Weights are a binary. Let's call them what they are. Yes, we can modify it and we can change them, but like, Giving someone the weights does not allow them ultimately to recreate what you're doing.”

“The incredible Chinese lab has done an amazing job at sharing their research, and we have definitely take, like, been on the receiving end of taking advantage of that. So When you're on the receiving end of something coming to you, I think you also have kind o…”

“We've got a small window before models are Really impacting recursive self-improvement to a level where catching up otherwise might become unfeasible.”

“We are going to be able to squeeze so much more out of smaller models than I think we had imagined in the industry. Because yes, there's intelligence and larger models are more intelligent. Like no doubt about it. We should continue to scale up. But the behavi…”

“I think we ultimately only succeed if we scale our models as large as our competition. I do not, like, I think we should not put our head in the sand and say we're going to be king of open source small models. I think that's Frankly, it's a cop out.”

“I have I would say a not commonly held opinion that reinforcement learning will move earlier and earlier into pre-training.”

“When you look at the benchmarks and start using it, you'll realize that we are outperforming models two or three times their size.”

“I think we will in 12 months not see a single system prompt that is stuffed with 20 or 30 or 40 tools anymore.”

“The training run is not the expensive part. The training run is a very anticlimactic event, right?”

“Intelligence is the most in life. You're going to be the world's most demanded commodity. It will more commoditize in margin and price.”

“And RL is batch size constraint, right? So like you are ultimately in your batch size constraint because you don't have infinite tasks, right? When you've got the entire web, you can be much more flexible in scaling up your batch size because you've got the en…”

“The first paradigm of kind of pre-training of predicting the next token on the web was becoming sigmoidal and was slowing down in terms of the gains that it had.”

“And within this world, if you think that intelligence is going to become less distinguishable between the companies building it, And becomes a commodity probably more like oil or cloud compute than like bread at the bakery, is there's two things that matter, y…”

“I don't think anyone has any doubts anymore that we're now on track to reach human level capabilities and intelligence. And in that world, 29 trillion dollars of knowledge work rewrites itself, right?”

“I'm not yet convinced that gross margins in our industry will look like a SaaS company, like 80% plus. I think when we're talking about a commodity as intelligence, that we build value added services on top. Right. It's a foundation model company. On one hand,…”

“So when you take all those margins out, all of a sudden you can start seeing that you can serve your tokens, 2030, 40% cheaper than someone else.”

“But the reason that never got us to AGI is because, well, the internet never actually included the data set of the thoughts and actions that created it. It's the final piece of code, it's the final article you write, but not the thoughts that you had and actio…”

“We think we'll push models to a level of reasoning and thought That will happen far earlier in their training than it does today.”

“And then the fourth stage of training over time increasingly will become learning, continuous learning from real world experiences of these agents. And so those are kind of the four stages that we think training will go to.”

“But we have a phrase at poolside, which is over time, everything collapses into the models.”

“I think we have a hard time holding the point of view that models will reach the same level of intelligence and capabilities that the world's most capable people in every field have. And when you take a step back, and don't take the next 12 month view, but jus…”

“You do not want to look back on that moment and not have given it everything you've got, because it's a race, and the latest five hundred million dollar round translates to us being able to be an entrant into the race.”

“At some point we are going to be in a world where across all sets of capabilities that we have as human beings, Machine intelligence is going to be as capable and if not more capable than us and surpass us. Now, our point of view is, is that that world is stil…”

“The missing data set in the world to go from where models are today to being as capable as humans at building software is the data set that represents being given the task, all of your intermediate reasoning and thinking, the steps that you do, the code that y…”

“The real differentiation between two models is the data.”

“Our view of Poolside is that the first majorly economically viable capability that is going to close the gap between human intelligence and machine intelligence is software development.”

“Because while Google has to work with Broadcom to be able to bring TPUs into the world, Amazon is working with the fabs directly.”

“But private code, no one's allowed to train on. Not us, not OpenAI. So all of us have access to the same public data.”

“Today, interconnecting more than 32,000 GPUs is extremely challenging.”

“If you want to become a hyperscaler that is able to put data centers all over the world with GPUs in it that is, that are going to allow you to serve these models to everyone, an infrastructure player, that's probably it. And that's probably just a starting po…”

“What we are going to find is that for compute, dollars have a direct one-on-one effect. But when we look at data, when we look at proprietary applied research, and we look at talent, It is not as straightforward as dollars in magic, you know, success out on th…”

“I think there's very few left to be acquired, to be very honest.”

“What I would like to see and what I think is going to happen is that it's not just Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. It's going to be, you know, an open eye, an anthropic, a poolside, and a set of companies who are able to get that massive escape velocity needed …”

“Most startups are not racist. Most startups are against your, yourself. But AGI is a race, and so our view always has been, is that the team that we build is a team that is deeply passionate to be in that race”

“Because I agree with you that the value is not going to only accumulate at the model layer. It's going to accumulate all the way to the end user.”

“Global conflict that disrupts the supply chain of chips.”